印尼首席经济部长：在关税谈判中没有与美国讨论印尼盾汇率问题。 ...

日度观点: ◆ PVC： 5 月 6 日 PVC 震荡偏弱。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续低迷，出口 受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12%左右）；供 应端有不少新投计划，二季度投产压力较大，且烧碱利润高开工持续维 持高位，库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽 松格局，偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量持稳状态， 内需季节性恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。目 前海外局势动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政策预期不强，PVC 估值偏 低，盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本 面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸 易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化，盘面进一步承压。 能源化工日报 公司资质 ◆ 烧碱： 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 5 月 6 日烧碱主力 SH09 合约收 2498 元/吨（+19），山东市场主流价 800 元/吨（+20），折百 2500 元/吨（+62），液氯山东-100 元/吨（-200）。 4 月 13 日开始，山东地区某氧化铝厂家采购 ...

周三(5月7日)，中国商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸高层会谈答记者问，发言人称，中方决定同意与美方进 行接触，何立峰副总理作为中美经贸中方牵头人，将与美方牵头人美国财长贝森特举行会谈。因中美会谈 消息打压避险情绪，金价出现暴跌，美股期货攀升。金价周三亚市早盘暴跌70美元，最低位于3360美元/盎 司附近。 近期金价的"V"型反转，是何原因促成？ 近期黄金价格先涨后跌再反弹，呈现'V'型走势，主要受地缘冲突、美联储政策预期和市场情绪共同影 响。此前特朗普对全球所有贸易国加征高额关税，导致全球贸易、经济和政治格局的失序加剧。 黄金：3350附近多，防守40，目标看向3390-3400！ 对于今天黄金走势的看法！ 黄金当前这种快速波幅的行情，只能以震荡走势来看待，昨天晚间也说过，行情上涨多空都有机会，意想 不到的就是晚间涨幅那么剧烈，还是和我们的预测有一点出处，而对于区间震荡走势，尤其是波段上涨结 束后的宽幅震荡走势，多空都有机会，关键是时机点位的把握，操作上还是需要耐心！ 黄金早盘自3438位置开启回撤，当前预计早盘先止跌于3350支撑区域，短期而言，要留意黄金周线是否会 构成黄昏之星形态。一旦黄昏之星结构形成，则黄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple factors boost market sentiment, and coal and coke are expected to rebound from oversold levels. After the holiday, with the release of positive signals in tariff negotiations, risk appetite is expected to recover, and the decline caused by risk - aversion before the holiday is likely to be compensated [4] - There are many significant events in the market recently, mostly positive news such as Sino - US negotiations, crude steel reduction, and a package of financial policies. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in J09 in the short term [5] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot prices are weakly stable, while futures prices are declining. The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 1,040 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port is reported at 1,380 yuan/ton (unchanged). The September contract is reported at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. The basis is 138.5 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan, and the September - January spread is - 48 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [1] Supply and Demand - Supply remains flat, while demand continues to rise. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.97%, basically unchanged. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.43%, up 0.16% [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory accumulates, while downstream inventory decreases. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 358.52 million tons, up 3.92 million tons, and the raw coal inventory is 558.03 million tons, up 27.58 million tons. The refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 193.89 million tons, up 12.21 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 784.79 million tons, up 2.31 million tons, and the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 810.28 million tons, down 9.55 million tons. The port inventory is 311.78 million tons, down 13.01 million tons [2] Coke Market Conditions - Spot prices are temporarily stable, while futures prices are declining. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1,440 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the second round of price increase has encountered resistance and been postponed. The September contract is reported at 1,502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The basis is 48.22 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan, and the September - January spread is - 48.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan [3] Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand are increasing, and demand is rising beyond expectations. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.43%, continuing to recover. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 92%, up 0.4%, and the daily average pig iron output is 245.42 million tons, up 1.07 million tons [3] Inventory - Mid - and upstream inventory decreases, while downstream inventory increases. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 67.06 million tons, down 1.76 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 675.22 million tons, up 8.87 million tons. The port inventory is 238.12 million tons, down 5.46 million tons [3] Strategy Recommendations - Pay attention to whether there are any unexpected statements regarding supporting the financing of the real estate industry during the press conference of multiple department heads on financial policies at 9:00 today. If the market shows a strong upward trend during the conference, it may be an important turning point for market sentiment recently [4] - In the short term, continue holding long positions in J09. However, pay attention to the sustainability of the short - term recovery in apparent demand in May, which is a traditional off - season. Under the expectation of the crude steel reduction policy this year, the subsequent performance of steel products is expected to strengthen, which may drive the repair of industrial chain profits [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **U.S. economy** and the implications of **Federal Reserve** policies on market dynamics and economic indicators. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. GDP Decline**: The U.S. GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first decline since 2022, primarily due to a significant drag from imports (4.8 percentage points) and a decrease in government spending (0.25 percentage points) [1][5][8] - **Retail Investor Influence**: Retail investors played a crucial role in the recent stock market rebound, showing strong willingness to buy the dip, while institutional investors, particularly hedge funds, remain net short, indicating a divergence in market sentiment [1][4] - **Employment Market Trends**: April's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations with an addition of 177,000 jobs, but previous months' data were revised downwards, indicating a slowdown in labor demand and a significant drop in job vacancies [1][10][11] - **Inflation and Price Trends**: Both manufacturing and service sectors are experiencing rising prices, with 76% of manufacturers passing on tariff costs to consumers, a notable increase from 50% during the 2019 trade war [1][13] - **Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations**: Expectations for rate cuts have diminished due to strong non-farm data and inflation risks, with traders adjusting their forecasts to a potential cut of 75 basis points [1][15][18] Additional Important Content - **Economic Data Structure Issues**: The structure of the GDP data reveals potential risks, as some companies are lowering future earnings guidance, indicating that current positive earnings may not sustain [1][5] - **Uncertain Economic Outlook for Q2**: The outlook for Q2 remains uncertain, with expectations that imports may not continue to drag GDP significantly, but government spending could still hinder growth [1][9] - **Federal Reserve's Independence**: Fed Chair Powell faces challenges in maintaining the Fed's independence amid public criticism from former President Trump, requiring careful navigation of responses to avoid market misinterpretation [1][17] - **Future Rate Cut Scenarios**: The Fed's future rate cut path is contingent on tariff negotiations; substantial cuts may occur if tariffs remain high, potentially leading to a recessionary environment [1][18][19] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current economic landscape, investor behavior, and the Federal Reserve's policy challenges.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $302.4 million for Q1 2025, a 97% increase year-over-year and a 10% increase sequentially from Q4 2024 [29][30] - Adjusted gross margin for Q1 2025 was 26.5%, reflecting a decline due to the roll-off of prior year benefits and commodity-driven compression [32][34] - Net income attributable to common stockholders was $2.3 million, compared to a net loss of $11.3 million in the prior year [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The delivered volume increased by 143% year-over-year, achieving the second-largest quarter of volume shipped since Q2 2023 [31] - Domestic order book grew over 9% in Q1 2025, with over 40% of the order book set to be delivered in the remaining quarters of 2025 [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales in North America represented approximately 65% of total revenue, with a mix shift impacting gross margins [31] - The order book remained resilient at $2 billion despite near-term policy-related headwinds [8][40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining operational agility and delivering long-term value amidst a rapidly evolving policy environment [7] - Continued emphasis on solar energy as a major component of energy strategy, with expectations for growth to meet increasing electricity demand [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of fundamentals and resilience of the company despite near-term volatility [7] - The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting revenue between $1.05 billion and $1.15 billion [39][40] Other Important Information - The company has a strong cash position with $348 million in cash and total liquidity of approximately $510 million [35][37] - The company is actively engaging with policymakers regarding energy tax credits and tariffs [15][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more color on the growing interest in VCAs? - Management is in active discussions with customers about longer-term commitments and will announce VCAs as they are finalized [48] Question: What is the guidance for Q2 revenue? - Specific guidance for Q2 was not provided, but the first half is expected to account for about 55% of total revenue [51] Question: Can you discuss the size of orders and lead times? - Lead times remain industry-leading at 14 weeks, with ongoing discussions about potential early pull-ins for 2025 [55] Question: How is the company managing cash use and term loans? - The company is looking at all options for managing term loans and is pleased with its balance sheet and liquidity position [66] Question: What is the impact of steel pricing on the business? - Steel prices are expected to increase by 25% to 28% for the year, which will translate into higher ASPs for future bookings [92] Question: What is the outlook for bookings momentum? - While demand momentum remains strong, uncertainty around tariffs and IRA impacts may affect the ability to convert bookings into orders [99]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is prepared to take retaliatory measures against the United States if negotiations regarding tariffs fail, aiming to rebalance bilateral trade relations [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - EU Trade and Economic Security Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis is currently negotiating with the Trump administration regarding potential tariffs on imports such as timber, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [1][3]. - The U.S. has indicated that these tariffs could affect €170 billion worth of EU goods, which represents approximately 97% of the EU's total exports to the U.S. [1]. Group 2: EU's Response Strategy - Dombrovskis stated that the proposed import taxes lack justification and would harm economies on both sides of the Atlantic, emphasizing that the current situation is unacceptable [3]. - In the event of failed negotiations, the EU is accelerating efforts to diversify its trade and investment relationships with other global partners to mitigate the impact of escalating trade tensions with the U.S. [3]. Group 3: Future Proposals and Actions - The EU is expected to submit a document to the U.S. aimed at restarting negotiations, which may include proposals to lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers, increase European investments in the U.S., and enhance cooperation on strategic challenges [3]. - Following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by President Trump, the EU proposed mutual elimination of tariffs on all industrial products, which was rejected by Trump [3].

台湾当局否认调整汇率，但在市场上，新台币买入仍占主导地位…… 从5月5日的纽约汇率行情来看，新台币对美元汇率急剧升值。与上周末相比升值6%，达到1美 元兑28新台币左右，创出2022年4月以来、时隔约2年的最高水平。美国彭博社报道称，作为 单日波动率创出了1988年以来的新高。随着与美国的贸易谈判，有观点认为美国将要求台湾 推动货币升值。 新台币一度升值至1美元兑28.815新台币。台湾当局否认调整汇率，但在市场上，新台币买入 仍占主导地位。 其背后是对台湾与美国关税谈判的市场预期。有观点认为，根据希望美元贬值的美国总统特 朗普的意向，台湾方面在关税谈判中就货币升值达成了协议。新台币在上周末的5月2日也对 美元出现了升值。 路透社报道称，赖清德5月5日发表紧急声明，否认了这种市场观测，并明确表示"正因为造成 台美贸易逆差的原因与汇率无关，台美之间的谈判，自然不会提及汇率议题"。 台湾的中央银行也在当天举行记者会，总裁杨金龙表示："央行也呼吁厂商不要听信市场过度 夸大或不实的分析，产生非理性的预期而抛汇，最终反而损及自身利益"。 市场对新台币维持升值预期。由于考虑到美国关税政策的抢搭末班车出口，台湾的出口额处 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in India-Pakistan, Iran-US relations, and the Russia-Ukraine situation, are driving a return to safe-haven assets like gold, which saw a significant increase of $100 recently [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the release of gold reserve data by the central bank are highlighted as key events to watch this week [1] Group 2 - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements, indicating a correlation between the two precious metals [3] - The US dollar index faced resistance at the 100 mark, with a potential upward breakout that could lead to a bullish trend [3] - The US stock market is anticipated to remain bearish in the medium term, despite a recent recovery from a significant drop [3] Group 3 - The S&P futures are facing resistance at the 5700 level, with potential for a downward correction if this resistance is not broken [5] - Crude oil prices experienced a decline due to news of increased production from oil-producing countries, followed by a slight rebound [5] - The formation of a double bottom pattern in crude oil prices is being monitored, with potential upward movement if confirmed [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market shows resilience, with a focus on technology growth and domestic demand expansion [7][10] - As of May 5, 2025, the total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 631.28 billion, with a PE ratio of 11.54 [3] Industry Dynamics - Apple reported a revenue of $95.36 billion for Q2 2025, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of $24.78 billion, also up 5% [47] - Xinda Biopharmaceuticals (1801.HK) achieved product revenue exceeding 2.4 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a growth of over 40% year-on-year [49] - The China National Railway Group reported a revenue of 1.283 trillion in 2024, a 3% increase, with Q1 2025 revenue at 281.4 billion, showing a 5.9% year-on-year growth in passenger transport [51][52] - Unisplendour (000938.SZ) reported a slight revenue increase of 2.22% in 2024, but a significant profit decline of 25% [56] Company Tracking - Xinda Biopharmaceuticals launched four new drugs in Q1 2025, contributing to its strong revenue growth [49] - Unisplendour's Q1 2025 revenue grew by 22%, but profits still declined by 16% [56]