Core Viewpoint - Herald Hold (00114) anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from HKD 42 million to HKD 47 million for the six months ending September 30, 2025, compared to HKD 27.2 million for the same period ending September 30, 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The expected increase in profit is primarily driven by net realized and unrealized gains from trading securities amounting to approximately HKD 13 million, up from HKD 10 million for the six months ending September 30, 2024 [1] - The company also expects a one-time after-tax gain of approximately HKD 15 million from the sale of two land parcels located in Shanghai [1] Management Outlook - Despite the anticipated strong performance in the first half of the fiscal year, management expresses significant concern regarding the company's performance in the second half of the fiscal year [1] - This cautious outlook is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased competitive pricing pressures within the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk announced plans to build a large-scale chip factory, driven by concerns over chip shortages and geopolitical factors, aiming to surpass TSMC's production capacity [2][3] Group 1: Reasons for Building the Chip Factory - Geopolitical concerns are a significant factor, as Musk has expressed worries about the concentration of semiconductor production in Taiwan [3] - Tesla is considered a "second-tier customer" by TSMC, resulting in less support and production flexibility compared to first-tier clients like Apple [3] - The anticipated growth in AI chip demand necessitates the establishment of a TeraFab, which would exceed TSMC's Gigafab capacity of over 100,000 wafers per month [2] Group 2: Potential Benefits of the New Factory - The new factory would allow Tesla to customize key design and manufacturing processes, enhancing vertical integration and maximizing output efficiency [4] - There is speculation about a potential joint venture between Tesla and Intel to establish a new foundry, as Tesla may consider significant investments in Intel [4] Group 3: Challenges and Market Reactions - Analysts question whether Tesla can successfully adopt a system product company + IDM model, which even Apple has hesitated to fully embrace [5] - Some industry observers express skepticism about Musk's ability to replicate his success in automotive and aerospace manufacturing within the semiconductor sector [5]

到2025年底，欧洲的局势愈发难以掩盖。曾在北约和欧盟活跃的意大利前大使，突然在俄罗斯媒体上发 表言论，称"俄罗斯是在北约的逼迫下才作出回应"。她的话如同一颗石子投入水中，激起了广泛的反 响。 到了2025年夏天，欧洲对乌克兰的资金支持逐渐显现疲态。7月以后，援助款项到位变得异常缓慢。到 了10月的欧盟峰会，各国在如何动用俄罗斯被冻结资产的问题上展开了激烈争论。法国和德国的态度明 显拖沓，欧洲的团结意志正在被现实问题慢慢蚕食。 战争带来的代价和国内压力不断加剧。打仗总是要付出代价，这场战争对欧洲的经济负担尤为沉重。德 国的工业电价飙升了两倍，荷兰、比利时的通胀率飙升至10%，许多制造业企业开始迁往美国避难。为 这种变化并非一蹴而就。自战争爆发以来，匈牙利总理欧尔班一直被视为"顽固分子"，他对向乌克兰提 供军援持保留态度。2023年底，斯洛伐克更换了新政府，新政府上台后立即叫停了对乌克兰的军援。捷 克也逐渐感受到压力，在2024年不得不开始后退。原本被视为个别现象的国家转变，实际上已经逐渐成 为了"连锁反应"。这些中东欧国家的改变，更多是在现实压力下做出的务实选择。 表面上，各国依旧装作团结一致，但背后却有越来 ...

Core Points - The U.S. has granted Hungary a complete exemption from sanctions on Russian energy supplies, particularly through the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline and the "Druzhba" oil pipeline, as well as lifting sanctions on the Paks II nuclear power plant project [1][3][5] - Hungary's reliance on Russian energy makes these pipelines crucial for its energy security, with the "Turkish Stream" supplying nearly 40% of Hungary's gas imports, especially during peak winter demand [3][5] - The lifting of sanctions is seen as a strategic move by the Trump administration to strengthen ties with Hungary while maintaining some level of energy connection with Russia [6][12] Energy Sector - The "Turkish Stream" pipeline meets a significant portion of Hungary's energy needs, while the "Druzhba" pipeline is vital for the refining industry and other key sectors [3][5] - The exemption from sanctions allows Hungary to avoid the risk of secondary sanctions from the U.S. while continuing to import energy from Russia, which is critical for its economy [3][5] - The Paks II nuclear project aims to increase the share of nuclear energy in Hungary's energy mix from 50% to 60%, reducing dependence on fossil fuels [5][10] Geopolitical Implications - Hungary's exemption reflects its long-standing opposition to EU sanctions on Russian energy, potentially encouraging other Eastern European countries to seek similar exemptions [5][10] - The potential for a renewed U.S.-Russia dialogue, with Hungary acting as a mediator, could reshape the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe [6][8][12] - The interaction between the U.S. and Hungary highlights the complex dynamics of international politics, where strategic interests often outweigh long-term sanctions [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.23% to close at 85,940 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices. There were still global uncertainties. Force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and the sharp rise of precious metals stimulated the increase of copper prices. Domestically, it was the off - season for consumption, and the downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was normal, mainly for rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 135,900 tons, slightly increasing last week, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons compared with last week [4]. - In terms of supply - demand balance, it was in a tight balance in 2024 and would be in surplus in 2025 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.23% to close at 85,940 yuan/ton. Geopolitical and tariff factors affected prices. Force majeure in Indonesian mines and the rise of precious metals stimulated price increases. Domestically, it was the consumption off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. Industrial spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory slightly increased, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: No specific content provided [10]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, it was in a tight balance, and in 2025, it would be in surplus. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table showed the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [12][15]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory was in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remained at a low level [16][19]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee was at a low level [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [24]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content provided [27]. - **Import Profit**: No specific content provided [30]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific content provided.

Group 1: China's Dominance in Key Elements - China dominates the global production of critical elements, with a 99% share in gallium, over 70% in magnesium, tungsten, and natural graphite, and 69% in rare earth elements [1][2] - In 2024, China's share of global production in key elements for the electronic manufacturing industry is projected to exceed 90% [3] - The importance of these elements is significant, as gallium is essential for 5G communication and artificial intelligence, while rare earth elements are crucial for missile guidance systems [5] Group 2: Global Dependency on Chinese Supply - The global electronic manufacturing industry heavily relies on Chinese supply chains, with 90% of solar cells depending on Chinese gallium and 70% of lithium battery anode materials relying on Chinese natural graphite [5] - A reduction in Chinese exports could severely impact industries such as renewable energy and defense technology, leading to potential disruptions in production efficiency [5] Group 3: China's Export Control Strategy - China's export controls are a strategic choice to ensure domestic industry stability amid rising global demand and geopolitical risks [6] - The measures are also a response to Western attempts to reduce dependency on Chinese critical elements, exemplified by the U.S. blocking Chinese acquisitions of overseas rare earth mines [7] Group 4: Implications of Export Controls - Export controls may drive domestic companies towards technological innovation and higher value-added production, moving away from low-end exports that have historically resulted in environmental damage [9] - These measures could lead to a restructuring of global supply chains, with Western countries attempting to increase local mining efforts, though facing challenges in cost and technology [9] - China's actions may also influence global resource governance rules, shifting the balance of power in resource distribution and allowing China to set new standards [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is cautiously bullish, with Brent crude expected to be in the range of 63 - 69 [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall strength of energy - chemical products is polyester > pure benzene - styrene = methanol - polyolefins. The strategy of "long PX and PTA, short methanol - polyolefins" can still be held cautiously, but beware of the impact of valuation improvement and year - end settlement liquidation, and do not be overly bearish [4] - For crude oil, EIA inventory shows that the apparent demand for US oil has rebounded, there is a small inventory build - up, refineries have unexpectedly reduced their operating rates, and the apparent demand for gasoline has declined with continued inventory drawdown. Seasonal demand decline is阶段性 completed. The current crack spreads for gasoline and diesel are good, and the market will then shift its focus to heating oil demand. The reduction of the Saudi - Asia premium has weakened market sentiment. Geopolitical factors remain the marginal driver [4] - In the polyester industry, PX operating rate has increased, while TA and EG operating rates have decreased. The operating rates of polyester and its downstream industries have increased steadily and continuously exceeded expectations, and the industrial chain inventory has rebounded. Maintenance factors may continue to support TA processing fees, and factors such as a more relaxed external environment and a late Chinese New Year may support the downstream demand of polyester. The upward elasticity of the industrial chain is maintained [4] - In the pure benzene - styrene industry, the downstream demand for pure benzene has increased steadily, with obvious improvement in nylon. The supply side has moderate support such as the conversion of disproportionation profit to loss, low BZN valuation, and better gasoline reforming profit than aromatics. The visible inventory has increased. The downstream PS of styrene has continued to improve, but EPS in the north has entered the off - season. The downstream export orders have increased, but it may still be weaker than pure benzene [4] - In the methanol - polyolefins industry, the decline in methanol has led to a rebound in MTO profit. Attention should be paid to whether the maintenance plan will be implemented. The expectation of non - Iranian supply reduction continues, Iranian shipments may remain at a high level, and East China ports may continue to receive Iranian supplies. The impact of domestic gas restrictions remains to be observed. This chain may still perform weakly, but the price decline has improved the valuation. Be wary of the impact of hedge position liquidation [4] - The US liquidity environment is under test again. The US Treasury plans to auction a total of $125 billion in Treasury bonds of various maturities next week, and about $40 billion in investment - grade corporate bonds are expected to be issued. November 11 is a holiday for US Veterans Day, and the bond market will be closed [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Energy - Chemical Weekly Market Performance - The report mentions "Energy - chemical futures weekly performance", but no specific performance data is provided in the given content [10][12] 02 Crude Oil Data Tracking - **Crude oil weekly inventory**: Not detailed in the given text [18] - **Refined oil weekly inventory**: Not detailed in the given text [21] - **Refinery capacity utilization**: Not detailed in the given text [24][27] - **Oil product crack spreads**: Not detailed in the given text [30] - **Net long positions (affected by government shutdown in data update)**: Not detailed in the given text [33] 03 Energy - Chemical Industry Chain Data Tracking - **Industry chain inventory, operating rate, and processing fee percentile overview**: Data for various products such as PX, PTA, BZ, EB, EG, MA, PE, PP, and PVC are provided, including inventory, inventory percentile in the past three years, operating rate, operating rate percentile in the past three years, processing fee or profit, and processing fee percentile in the past three years [38] - **Aromatic chain basis seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [39][41] - **Olefin chain basis seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [43] - **Aromatic chain inventory seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [45] - **Olefin chain inventory seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [48][51] - **Aromatic chain operating rate seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [55] - **Olefin chain operating rate seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [56][59] - **Aromatic chain profit/processing fee seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [62] - **Olefin chain profit/processing fee seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [65][68]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices have declined due to concerns over interest rate cuts and strong demand for safe-haven assets, alongside weak manufacturing data from Asia and the US. As of November 7, 2025, Brent and WTI prices were $63.63 and $59.84 per barrel, respectively [2][9]. - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown strong performance, with the sector rising by 4.47% as of November 7, 2025, compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 index [10][13]. - The report highlights significant increases in US crude oil imports and a rise in total crude oil inventory, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [49][53]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of November 7, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $63.63 per barrel, down $1.14 (-1.76%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures also fell by $1.14 (-1.87%) to $59.84 per barrel [22][24]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs remained stable at 369, and floating drilling rigs at 130 as of November 3, 2025 [26]. Crude Oil Supply - US crude oil production reached 13.651 million barrels per day as of October 31, 2025, an increase of 0.07 million barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs was stable at 414 [40][41]. Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude oil processing increased to 15.256 million barrels per day as of October 31, 2025, with a refinery utilization rate of 86.00%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous week [52]. Crude Oil Inventory - Total US crude oil inventory was 831 million barrels as of October 31, 2025, reflecting an increase of 5.7 million barrels (+0.69%) from the previous week [53]. Refined Oil Prices - In North America, the average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $102.44, $80.90, and $94.67 per barrel, respectively, as of November 7, 2025 [82][86].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting at the White House on November 7 highlighted the complex geopolitical dynamics surrounding Hungary's energy dependence on Russia, with Trump suggesting a potential exemption for Hungary to continue purchasing Russian oil, which could undermine the collective sanctions imposed by the US and EU against Russia [1][16]. Group 1: Hungary's Energy Dependency - Hungary is heavily reliant on Russian energy, with 74% of its natural gas and 86% of its oil sourced from Russia, making it one of the EU's most dependent countries on Russian energy [3][4]. - The lack of a seaport severely limits Hungary's ability to import alternative energy sources, as its industrial infrastructure is designed to process Russian crude oil, making a switch to other sources technically challenging and costly [3][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The recent sanctions imposed by the US and EU on Russian oil and liquefied natural gas have led to a spike in international oil prices, which has not significantly harmed Russia but has put pressure on European allies like Hungary [4][11]. - Trump's comments suggest that Hungary's situation is not unique, with other landlocked countries like Slovakia facing similar dilemmas regarding energy supply and reliance on Russian resources [4][11]. Group 3: Strategic Calculations - Trump's willingness to consider an exemption for Hungary appears to be a strategic move to maintain alliances and pressure other European nations to align with US policies regarding Russian energy [6][7]. - Hungary's energy crisis has prompted it to develop infrastructure that could position it as a key player in the Central European energy market, potentially replacing Austria as a distribution hub for natural gas [7][14]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The exemption for Hungary is not guaranteed, as it may come with conditions, such as purchasing $6 billion worth of US liquefied natural gas, indicating a transactional nature to the arrangement [8][12]. - The potential for other countries to seek similar exemptions could create further fractures in the EU's collective sanctions strategy against Russia, undermining the intended pressure on the Kremlin [12][13].

Group 1 - Australian media frequently portrays China as a geopolitical threat, framing various reports within a narrative of conflict and aggression, despite the actual content being more balanced [1][2][3] - The coverage of the Antarctic krill fishing issue highlights that while Norway is the largest fishing nation, the narrative focuses on China as the primary antagonist, ignoring the involvement of other countries like South Korea and Ukraine [1] - Reports on the electric vehicle market expansion by Chinese manufacturers, such as BYD, are sensationalized with terms like "attack" and "giant," creating a fear-inducing atmosphere around normal business activities [2][3] Group 2 - The media's tendency to label business decisions, such as Hyundai's procurement from China, as "surrender" reflects a broader pattern of framing economic cooperation as a threat, rather than a strategic business choice [2][3] - The articles suggest that the portrayal of China as a perpetual adversary undermines objective journalism and distorts public perception, as the actual events do not support the aggressive narrative [3] - The call for Australian journalists to move away from depicting China as an eternal villain indicates a need for a more nuanced understanding of global supply chains and international business relations [3]