Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25-4.5% and paused rate cuts, indicating a preference for "higher for longer" monetary policy[3] - The dot plot shows that 7 out of 19 committee members expect no rate cuts this year, while 8 anticipate two cuts, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards maintaining rates[5] - The Fed's economic forecasts for GDP in 2025 and 2026 were downgraded by 30bp and 20bp to 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively, indicating concerns about stagflation[4] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Core PCE inflation forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were raised by 30bp, 20bp, and 10bp to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1%, respectively, highlighting inflationary pressures[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is estimated to increase PCE by approximately 0.5-0.6 percentage points, as tariffs raise import prices and domestic substitutes[4] - The labor supply is expected to decrease due to immigration restrictions, further limiting growth potential[4] Group 3: Future Uncertainties - The Fed's dot plot predicts a policy rate of 3.6% by the end of 2026, up from 3.4% in March, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts[6] - Market speculation suggests that the next Fed chair may be more dovish, potentially undermining the current "higher for longer" stance and risking a loss of Fed credibility[6] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic, employment, and inflation trends remains elevated, with potential risks from fiscal and tariff policies[9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate cut since December last year [7][8]. - The economic outlook has shifted towards a "stagflation" scenario, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 being downgraded by 0.3 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points respectively, while unemployment rate forecasts for the same years have been raised by 0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points [7][9]. - The dot plot indicates a more hawkish stance compared to March, with three additional members expecting no rate cuts this year and a reduction in the expected rate cut for 2026 from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [8][9]. Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed a hawkish tone, indicating that while job growth has slowed, the unemployment rate remains low, and both labor supply and demand are decreasing simultaneously [2][13]. - The market reacted to the FOMC decision with rising U.S. Treasury yields and a decline in U.S. stocks, with expectations for a potential rate cut in September and another in December remaining consistent with pre-FOMC predictions [2][13]. - The next rate cut is deemed challenging, as inflation risks remain high and the unemployment rate is expected to rise slowly, suggesting the Fed may prefer to wait for clearer signals rather than act prematurely [3][22]. Group 3 - Inflation is anticipated to face upward pressure during the summer, influenced by tariffs and the delayed transmission of costs to consumers, with the average effective tariff rate expected to rise by 14 percentage points due to ongoing trade conflicts [3][16]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slowly, with initial jobless claims in June showing an upward trend, potentially due to seasonal factors related to the academic calendar [4][21]. - Overall, the conditions for a rate cut in September require either a continued decline in inflation or a rapid increase in unemployment, both of which currently appear difficult to achieve [4][22].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant divide among its officials regarding interest rate decisions, with some advocating for no rate cuts while others support two cuts by the end of the year, indicating high uncertainty in policy direction [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Outlook - The dot plot from the Federal Reserve shows a split among 19 participants: 7 expect no rate cuts, 8 anticipate two cuts, and a few support one or three cuts [1][3]. - Barclays analysts predict only one 25 basis point cut in December 2023, with three cuts expected in 2026, bringing rates to a range of 3.25%-3.50% [2][5]. - The internal division stems from differing concerns: those favoring no cuts are worried about inflation risks, while those supporting cuts are focused on potential increases in unemployment and slowing economic growth [3][8]. Group 2: Economic Projections and Inflation - The latest economic projections indicate a downward revision in GDP growth forecasts, with 2025's real GDP growth expected at 1.4%, down from 1.7% [7][8]. - PCE inflation forecasts have been raised to 3.0% for 2025, with core PCE inflation at 3.1%, reflecting concerns over rising inflation risks [8][9]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% in both 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential economic slowdown [7][8]. Group 3: Tariff Impact and Policy Caution - The report highlights the significant impact of tariff policies on the U.S. economic outlook, suggesting that high tariffs may lead to persistent inflationary pressures [6][9]. - Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasized the need for caution, stating that the current policy stance is sufficiently restrictive to address various risks and uncertainties [10][11]. - Powell's remarks indicate a shift from viewing tariff impacts as temporary to recognizing their potential long-term effects on inflation and economic activity [11].

智通财经6月19日电，欧洲央行管委雷恩表示，若中东危机持续，欧元区将面临滞胀冲击。 ...

宏观动态报告 -- 6 月 FOMC 会议 2024 年 6 月 19 日 分析师 张迪 ☎: 010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 于金潼 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080003 经济预测进一步确立"滞胀"担忧,点阵图边际鹰流但无需过多解读,硬数据变动仍将主 ● 导美联储未来的态度,而关税和财政是影响硬数据的核心变量: 6 月将 2025 和 2026 年的 经济增长预期从 1.7%和 1.8%下调至 1.4%和 1.6%,低于经济潜在增速。2025-2027 年 的失业率被小幅全线上调,分别为 4.5%、4.5%和 4.4%,略高于自然失业率水平并支持 进一步的降息。PCE 通胀也被上调,2025年名义和核心通胀分别从 2.7%和 2.8%进一步 上调至 3.0%和 3.1%,而 2026 年均为 2.4%,即通胀抬升基本为一次性。最后,联邦基 金利率预测路径显示 2025 年美联储暂时维持降息 2 次，2026 年降息从 2 次下调 ...

【白银期货行情表现】 6月19日，沪银主力暂报8915元/克，跌幅达0.85%，今日沪银主力开盘价9012元/克，截至目前最高9025 元/克，最低8885元/克。 【宏观消息】 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发表讲话强调，伊朗绝不接受任何"强加的和平或战争"。绝不会对领土上遭受的 任何袭击"视而不见"，伊朗军队已经做好了充分的准备。以方犯下严重错误，将会受到"惩罚"。哈梅内 伊还表示，伊朗民族不会投降，任何"美国军事干预无疑都会带来无法弥补的损失"。 美联储6月议息会议：连续第四次维持利率不变，点阵图显示今年降息两次，但预计今年不降息的官员 人数升至7位，明年的降息预期被削减至1次。鲍威尔继续高呼不确定性，目前的经济情况适合观望。他 还预计未来几个月会有关税驱动的通胀上升。"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos发文称，美联储此次维持利 率不变，为今年下半年降息留下了可能性。为了恢复去年开始的降息，美联储官员可能需要看到劳动力 市场走软，或者有更有力的证据表明，关税导致的价格上涨将相对温和。 美国至6月14日当周初请失业金人数24.5万人，预期24.5万人，前值由24.8万人修正为25万人。 【机构观点】 银河期货 ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has raised its unemployment rate and PCE inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, while lowering GDP expectations[3] - Nominal PCE and core PCE are projected to rise above 3%, with current core PCE at 2.52% and nominal PCE at 2.15%[4][15] - Inflation is expected to return to an upward trend in the second half of the year due to reduced negative contributions from energy and the delayed effects of tariffs[4][15] Employment Trends - Non-farm unemployment rate remains stable but shows signs of gradual weakening, with 350,000 new unemployed in the first half of 2025[5][16] - An estimated 500,000 new unemployed individuals are expected in 2023-2024, indicating a potential acceleration in job market cooling[5][16] Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve maintains a neutral stance on interest rate cuts, with expectations for potential cuts mirroring the 2024 scenario, driven by unexpected economic weakness[6][20] - The dot plot indicates 7 officials expect no rate cuts in 2025, while 8 anticipate two cuts, reflecting a more cautious outlook compared to March[20] Asset Market Insights - The FOMC's impact on assets is minimal, with a slight increase in 10Y Treasury yields by 5 basis points and a $15 drop in COMEX gold prices[7][21] - Focus for the second half of the year will be on the interplay between U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, with a target yield range of 4.5%-4.6% for 10Y Treasuries[7][21] Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks are rising, alongside uncertainties related to Trump’s policies and the potential for economic weakness exceeding expectations[9][25]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 继续观望，直至前景明朗 ——2025 年 6 月美联储议息会议点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月，美联储议息会议上，美联储如期维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，会议声明的关 键调整在于强调不确定性减弱但仍偏高。经济预测方面，美联储下调近两年 GDP 增速预期、 上调近三年通胀和失业率预期。降息路径方面，本次会议公布的点阵图结论上仍维持年内累计 降息 50BP 预期，但分布有所上移且趋于分散。总之，关税政策及其经济影响的不确定性导致 美联储倾向保持观望。向前看，经济数据的表现仍是决定未来货币政策的重中之重，未来降息 与否的关键在于：滞与胀谁先到来。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 继续观望，直至前景明朗 2] ——2025 年 6 月美联储议息会议点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 北京 ...

>?@ABCDEFGHI2025-06-19 高聪 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 !"#$$%&'$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"# 6 $%&'()*+,-./01 ——!"#$%&'&2 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 5 月利率决议，将利率维持在 4.25%- 4.50%。 （1）关税扰动、分歧加大：美联储本次会议释放出关税对通胀形成干扰、内部对降息 路径分歧加大的信号，显示政策转向更为谨慎和依赖数据。 （2）删除了对滞胀的担忧：美联储声明删除了关于失业和通胀同时上升的表述，显示 其对 "滞胀" 风险的担忧有所缓解，政策重心重新回归对通胀单一目标的观察与评估。 &'"( n !"# 6 $%&'()* +,-./0123 在 6 月 FOMC 会议中，美联储维持联邦基金利率在 4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次按兵 不动。尽管通胀依然高于 2%的目标， ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, maintaining the range at 4.25-4.5%[1] - The dot plot indicates a preference for two rate cuts within the year, which is more optimistic than market fears of only one cut[1] - The Fed is inclined to wait for economic uncertainties to resolve before making further decisions[2] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were downgraded by 30bp and 20bp to 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively[3] - Core PCE inflation rate forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were raised by 30bp, 20bp, and 10bp to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1%[3] - Tariffs are expected to increase import prices, contributing to domestic inflation pressures[3] Group 3: Market Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts are around 48bp, with a possibility of only one cut if inflation continues to rise[4] - The dot plot shows a shift with more members supporting no rate cuts this year, indicating a cautious approach[4] - The uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy is expected to increase as the Fed's long-term projections are less reliable[5] Group 4: Leadership and Policy Implications - Concerns arise regarding the potential for a more dovish Fed chair after Powell's term ends in May 2026, which could undermine the Fed's independence[5] - If a new chair is influenced by the president, it may lead to a loss of credibility for the Fed and further depreciation of the dollar[5]