华尔街风暴：美联储内讧、特朗普怒火与科技股崩盘 2025年8月21日凌晨，全球金融市场经历了一场惊心动魄的剧变。起因是美联储发布的一份鹰派会议纪要，它如同一颗重磅炸弹，瞬间引爆了市场的恐慌情 绪。短短四天内，标准普尔500指数蒸发了高达一万亿美元的市值，而科技巨头英伟达更是首当其冲，单日暴跌4%，市值缩水超过惊人的1.1万亿元人民 币。 几乎在同一时刻，前总统特朗普也在社交媒体上掀起了一场舆论风暴，他措辞严厉地怒斥美联储理事库克，指控其涉嫌房贷欺诈，并要求她"必须立即辞 职"。 前所未有的裂痕：美联储内部的权力斗争 这份引发市场动荡的7月会议纪要，揭露了美联储内部前所未有的深刻裂痕。在19名参会者中，只有理事沃勒和鲍曼两人投票支持降息，其余所有官员都坚 持维持利率在4.25?%的高位。这是自1993年以来，首次出现如此多理事公开反对利率决议的罕见情况。多数官员坚信，"通胀风险远大于就业风险"，并特别 警告特朗普政府的关税政策可能导致物价"长期化"，因为企业正将关税成本转嫁给消费者，而其全面影响尚未完全显现。 纪要发布后，恐慌情绪迅速蔓延，纳斯达克指数连续两日暴跌，美元汇率跳水，而避险资产黄金则暴涨30美元，交 ...

作为2025年联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的轮值票委，古尔斯比强调，美联储在9月的政策会议前仍 需审慎评估更多数据。"在我看来，9月的会议像是一场实时的会议（live meeting），"他表示，"我们不 能仅凭一份报告就做出判断。我们需要确认通胀是否真正回归下行轨道。" 近期公布的美国7月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，远超预期，其中服务成本是主要推手。同 时，密歇根大学消费者信心调查显示，短期和长期通胀预期均有所回升，加剧了市场对通胀粘性的担 忧。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月22日电芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）表示，尽管近期部分通胀 数据呈现缓和迹象，但服务业价格的意外飙升构成"危险信号"，他希望这一现象只是暂时的，而非通胀 反弹的前兆。 "上一份通胀报告显示，服务业通胀确实开始飙升，环比涨幅达到1.1%，这是自2022年3月以来的最大 增幅，"古尔斯比在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会前夕发表讲话称，"虽然目前尚不确定这一上涨是否由关税 或其他外部因素直接推动，但这是一个危险的数据点。我希望这只是一次性的小插曲，而不是趋势的逆 转。" ...

来源：21世纪经济报道 在美国经济前景迷雾重重之际，美联储内部的谨慎情绪成为主基调。 当地时间8月20日，美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）7月29日至30日的会议纪要。据央视新闻报道，委员们一致认为，尽管净出口波 动影响了数据，但近期指标表明，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓。通胀率仍然略高，经济前景的不确定性仍然较高。 整体而言，在美联储7月底的鹰派决议背后，大多数官员认为通胀风险比就业市场疲软更令人担忧。除了美联储监管副主席鲍曼和理事沃勒反 对维持利率不变，基本没有其他决策者支持在7月会议上降息。 与此同时，白宫仍在持续对美联储施压。央视新闻报道称，8月20日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称：美联储理事丽莎·库 克必须立即辞职。今年5月，丽莎·库克曾表示，特朗普正在推进的贸易政策可能会抑制美国生产力，并可能迫使美联储在一个效率下降的经济 环境中提高利率，以遏制通胀。 面对经济和政治的双重不确定性，美联储陷入更大困境，货币政策路径迷雾重重。 图片来源：新华社 担忧通胀甚于就业 "几乎所有与会决策者都认为，在本次会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%～4.50%是合适的。"7月会议纪要 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices closed lower, with the S&P 500 index declining for the fifth consecutive trading day as investors await comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 152.81 points, or 0.34%, closing at 44,785.50 points; the Nasdaq dropped by 72.55 points, or 0.34%, to 21,100.31 points; and the S&P 500 decreased by 25.61 points, or 0.40%, to 6,370.17 points [1] Stock Performance - Walmart (WMT.US) saw a decline of over 4%, while Tesla (TSLA.US) fell by 1% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.3%, with Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US) increasing by 11.6% and NIO (NIO.US) rising by over 9%, while Alibaba (BABA.US) dropped by 1% [1] European Market - The German DAX 30 index increased by 13.51 points, or 0.06%, closing at 24,290.61 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 20.71 points, or 0.22%, to 9,308.85 points; while the French CAC 40 index fell by 34.74 points, or 0.44%, to 7,938.29 points [1] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for October delivery rose by $0.81, closing at $63.52 per barrel, a 1.29% increase; Brent crude oil futures for October delivery increased by $0.83, closing at $67.67 per barrel, a 1.24% rise [2] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.41%, closing at 98.619 [2] - The euro traded at 1.1610 against the dollar, down from 1.1655; the pound traded at 1.3419, down from 1.3452; while the dollar appreciated against the yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell by over 1.4%, trading at $112,596.9; Ethereum dropped by over 2%, trading at $4,242.36 [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. August PMI data indicates strong economic performance, with a 2.5% annualized growth rate, surpassing the first half's average of 1.3% [4] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase in nearly three months, indicating potential layoffs and a weakening labor market [5] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the U.S. remained stable at 6.58%, the lowest level since October of the previous year [8] Company News - Apple (AAPL.US) raised the monthly subscription price for its streaming service Apple TV+ by 30% to $13, effective immediately for new subscribers in the U.S. and select international markets [9] - Deutsche Bank raised the target price for Estée Lauder (EL.US) from $98 to $100 [10] - Jefferies lowered the target price for Target (TGT.US) from $120 to $115 and for Baidu (BIDU.US) from $110 to $108 [10]

美联储柯林斯表示，如果劳动力市场前景恶化，短期内可能适宜降息；不能等到通胀完全明朗才考虑降 息；预计通胀将持续上升至年底，然后在2026年恢复早前的下降趋势。 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at the global central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which is viewed as a critical moment for the future direction of monetary policy [1] - Market expectations are high for Powell to confirm the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with a 73.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut during the September 16-17 meeting according to CME FedWatch [1] - Recent volatility in U.S. stock markets is noted, with the Nasdaq index down 2.4% for the week, the S&P 500 down 1.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.4% [1] Group 2 - Analysts warn that if Powell does not commit to or suggest that market expectations are excessive, it could lead to significant repricing of bond yields and risk assets [1] - Support for a rate cut is based on moderate consumer price increases due to tariffs and signs of cooling in the job market, but there are concerns about rising inflation as wholesale prices recorded their largest increase in three years [1] - Political pressure on Powell is increasing, with President Trump criticizing the Fed's slow rate cuts and calling for the resignation of Fed Governor Cook over alleged mortgage application fraud [2]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices closed lower, with the S&P 500 index declining for the fifth consecutive trading day as investors await comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 152.81 points, or 0.34%, closing at 44,785.50 points; the Nasdaq dropped by 72.55 points, or 0.34%, to 21,100.31 points; and the S&P 500 decreased by 25.61 points, or 0.40%, to 6,370.17 points [1] Stock Performance - Walmart (WMT.US) saw a decline of over 4%, while Tesla (TSLA.US) fell by 1% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.3%, with Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US) increasing by 11.6% and NIO (NIO.US) rising by over 9% [1] - Alibaba (BABA.US) experienced a drop of 1% [1] European Market - The German DAX 30 index increased by 13.51 points, or 0.06%, closing at 24,290.61 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 20.71 points, or 0.22%, to 9,308.85 points [1] - The French CAC 40 index fell by 34.74 points, or 0.44%, to 7,938.29 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index decreased by 11.47 points, or 0.21%, to 5,460.85 points [1] - The Spanish IBEX 35 index rose by 2.40 points, or 0.02%, to 15,297.50 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index increased by 130.19 points, or 0.30%, to 42,995.00 points [1] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for October delivery rose by $0.81, closing at $63.52 per barrel, a gain of 1.29%; Brent crude oil futures for October delivery increased by $0.83, closing at $67.67 per barrel, a rise of 1.24% [2] - Spot gold fell by 0.30%, priced at $3,338.22 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures decreased by 0.17%, closing at $3,382.90 per ounce [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. August PMI data indicates strong economic performance, with a 2.5% annualized growth rate, surpassing the first half's average of 1.3% [4] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase in nearly three months, indicating potential layoffs and a weakening labor market [5] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the U.S. remained stable at 6.58%, the lowest level since October of the previous year [8] Company News - Apple (AAPL.US) raised the monthly subscription price for its streaming service Apple TV+ by 30% to $13, effective immediately for new subscribers in the U.S. and select international markets [9] - Deutsche Bank raised the target price for Estée Lauder (EL.US) from $98 to $100 [10] - Jefferies lowered the target price for Target (TGT.US) from $120 to $115 and for Baidu (BIDU.US) from $110 to $108 [10]

哈马克在接受采访时指出："当前通胀过高，并在过去一年呈上升趋势。根据我掌握的信息，如果会议 在明天召开，我看不到降低利率的理由。" 哈马克的表态正值杰克逊霍尔央行年会前夕，美联储主席鲍威尔将于周五发表备受关注的演讲，投资者 将密切关注其对9月货币政策会议可能动作的暗示。美联储下一次政策会议定于9月16日至17日在华盛顿 召开。 智通财经报道，克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周四表示，如果美联储明天召开货币政策会议，她不会支持降 息。 此外，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德表示，他认为通胀风险略高于就业市场风险，但当前货币政策处于合适 位置。施密德指出："当你逐渐接近最优的双重使命目标时，实际上更难在边际上决定政策利率应该走 向何处。我认为政策略有紧缩，但我们走在正确道路上。"他同时提到，最近几个月通胀有所加快，并 且企业能将部分进口成本上涨转嫁给消费者。 她同时承认市场对劳动力市场的担忧，但表示失业率仍接近她所估算的最大就业水平。哈马克强 调："从整体平衡来看，维持温和的紧缩政策立场非常重要，以继续将通胀率拉回目标水平。" 与此同时，美国劳工部最新数据显示，截至8月16日当周，美国初请失业救济人数经季调后增加1.1万至 23.5 ...

Core Insights - The latest S&P report indicates that UK business activity in August has shown the strongest growth momentum in a year, with the S&P Global UK Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 53.0, significantly above market expectations [1][2] Economic Indicators - The August Composite PMI preliminary value increased from 51.5 in July to 53.0, surpassing the market expectation of 51.6, marking the highest level since August 2024, indicating that the UK economy has entered an expansion phase [1] - The Services PMI rose to 53.6, serving as the main growth driver, while the Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.3, reaching a three-month low, indicating ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] Employment and Cost Pressures - Overall business activity has strengthened, and the decline in employment levels has narrowed compared to July, although companies continue to face rising labor cost pressures due to the government's increase in employer social security tax and minimum wage [1] - The service sector has experienced the fastest price increase in three months, potentially intensifying inflationary pressures and complicating policy adjustments for the Bank of England [1] Future Outlook - UK businesses' expectations for future operations have risen to the highest point since October 2024, reflecting a recovery in confidence [1] - Analysts note a "mixed" economic landscape in the UK, with the service sector supporting overall growth while the manufacturing sector remains under pressure due to a weak global trade environment [2]

（原标题：深夜突发！美联储，降息大消息！） 9月降息生变 21日晚间，美联储发生了多件大事。 第一，美国司法部计划调查美联储理事丽莎·库克。一名司法部高官周四致信美联储主席鲍威尔，告知 此项调查并敦促他将库克移出理事会。 【导读】美联储9月降息，不再板上钉钉！ 中国基金报记者 泰勒 美联储9月降息的预期，今晚发生了变 化！大家好，继续关注海外市场的表现。 美股震荡下跌 8月21日晚间，美股三大指数小幅下跌，标普 500指数连续第五天下滑。 沃尔玛股价下跌逾4%，尽管该零售商的季度销售额超出华尔街预期，但利润未达预期，这是自2022年5 月以来首次季度盈利未达标。 投资者正等待美联储主席鲍威尔周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上发表讲话，他可能会就利 率路径提供线索。根据CME的FedWatch工具，联邦基金期货显示市场认为美联储在9月会议上降息的可 能性约为70%。 美联储7月会议纪要显示，决策者对劳动力市场和通胀状况表示担忧，但大多数人认为现在降息为时过 早。理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼反对维持利率不变，这是自1993年以来首次有两位理事同时投 反对票。 RGA投资公司首席投资官里克·加德纳表示： ...