Group 1 - The 39th OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries ministerial meeting is scheduled to take place, which may influence global oil supply and pricing dynamics [1] - The U.S. Vice President will deliver a speech at the "Bitcoin 2025" conference, potentially impacting cryptocurrency market sentiment [1] - The Federal Reserve's Williams will participate in a panel discussion at the Bank of Japan's financial research institute meeting, which could provide insights into U.S. monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Australia's April weighted CPI year-on-year data will be released, which is crucial for assessing inflation trends in the region [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, impacting the New Zealand dollar and economic outlook [1] - The final GDP year-on-year figure for France's first quarter will be published, providing insights into the country's economic performance [1] Group 3 - Germany's adjusted unemployment figures for May will be released, including both the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate, which are key indicators of labor market health [1] - The Swiss ZEW investor confidence index for May will be announced, reflecting investor sentiment and expectations for the Swiss economy [1] - The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index for May will be published, offering insights into the manufacturing sector's performance in the U.S. [1] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its May monetary policy meeting, which may provide clues about future interest rate decisions [1] - The API crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 23 will be released, which is significant for understanding oil supply trends in the U.S. [1]

Summary of Deutsche Bank Economic Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US Economic Outlook** and the impact of **trade tensions** on economic indicators such as consumer spending and inflation [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Consumer Spending and Inflation**: - Personal income increased by **0.4%** compared to an expected **0.5%** increase, while consumption rose by **0.2%** against a forecast of **0.7%** [1]. - Core PCE inflation is anticipated to show a softer print of **0.12%**, influenced by volatile categories like airfares and portfolio management, leading to a year-over-year inflation rate of **2.6%** [1]. 2. **Durable Goods Orders**: - A significant decline in durable goods orders of **8.1%** was noted, primarily due to a drop in Boeing aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, orders fell by **0.2%** [2]. - Companies are pausing capital expenditure plans amid tariff uncertainties, which is reflected in the soft core orders [2]. 3. **Trade Balance and Tariffs**: - The advance goods trade balance showed a deficit of **$155 billion**, slightly better than the previous **$162 billion** [2]. - The report suggests that tariffs may narrow the trade deficit, as foreign retaliation could be muted, and the Trump tariffs have led to dollar depreciation [5]. 4. **Consumer Confidence**: - Consumer confidence is expected to remain low, with a forecast of **85.0**, close to pandemic lows. Attention will be on consumer views regarding the labor market [6]. 5. **Federal Reserve Policy**: - The Federal Reserve is not expected to make significant policy changes in the near term, with a consensus among officials that current policy is appropriate [7]. - The minutes from the May FOMC meeting are anticipated to reflect a broader consensus on the Fed's wait-and-see approach amidst trade uncertainties [7]. 6. **Market Volatility**: - The report indicates that ongoing trade negotiations and tariff escalations are likely to increase volatility in risk assets and corporate capital commitments [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the potential long-term economic costs of tariffs, including increased prices and reduced output, which may persist for years [5]. - There is a noted increase in longer-term inflation expectations despite a recent cooling in energy prices, indicating underlying inflationary pressures [6]. - The upcoming data releases are expected to shift focus back to trade, with significant implications for market sentiment and economic forecasts [9]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Deutsche Bank Economic Notes, highlighting the interplay between trade policies, consumer behavior, and macroeconomic indicators.

Core Insights - The temporary trade agreement between the US and China has led to a rebound in US business activity in May, but the comprehensive tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased prices for businesses and consumers [1] - Despite the improvement in business sentiment, concerns about the negative impacts of Trump's policies persist, keeping sentiment slightly below the average level for 2024 [3] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global composite PMI output index rose from 50.6 in April to 52.1 in May, indicating private sector expansion [1] - The manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded from 50.2 to 52.3, surpassing expectations of 50.1, while the services PMI increased from 50.8 to 52.3, contrary to predictions of stability [1] - New orders received by businesses increased from 51.7 in April to 52.4, primarily driven by manufacturing [3] Inflation and Costs - The prices paid by businesses for inputs surged from 58.5 in April to 63.4, the highest level since November 2022, indicating that companies are passing higher costs onto consumers [3] - The prices charged for goods and services rose from 54.0 to 59.3, marking the highest level since August 2022, suggesting a sharp increase in consumer price inflation [3] - Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to rise to approximately 3.5%, while GDP growth is projected to slow to below 1% this year [2] Employment and Labor Market - The employment index fell from 50.2 to 49.5, reflecting concerns about future demand, rising costs, and labor shortages [3] - Inventory investments have surged to an 18-year high due to fears of supply shortages and price increases related to tariffs [2]

罗马尼亚当选总统达恩：2025年预算赤字的实际目标是占GDP的7.5%。 ...

新加坡第一季度GDP环比下滑0.6%，预估下滑1.0%。 新加坡第一季度GDP同比增长3.9%，预估3.6%。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the contrasting measurements of China's GDP using exchange rate and purchasing power parity (PPP), highlighting a significant discrepancy in the perceived economic size of China compared to the US [5][10][12] - According to exchange rate calculations, China's GDP is approximately $19 trillion, about 65% of the US GDP of $29 trillion, while PPP estimates China's GDP at around $38 trillion, suggesting it surpasses the US [5][10][12] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic structures and the implications of these measurements on global perceptions of China's economic strength [12][26][38] Group 2 - China's agricultural output has consistently ranked first globally over the past decade, producing nearly 100 million tons more than the US, indicating a strong foundation for its economy [14][16] - In industrial production, China dominates global supply chains, contributing over 50% of the world's steel production, around 60% of electrolytic aluminum, and close to 45% of copper [18][20][24] - The manufacturing sector in China is robust, with the country leading in automobile production, home appliances, and electronics, holding significant global market shares [20][24] Group 3 - The article points out that the statistical methods used to measure GDP may overlook significant contributions from emerging service sectors and informal economies, leading to an underestimation of China's economic output [28][30][34] - The rise of gig economy workers and small businesses, which often operate outside traditional economic measurements, contributes to a substantial but unaccounted economic value [30][34] - The undervaluation of the Chinese yuan in international markets may also distort GDP figures when converted to foreign currencies, further complicating the assessment of China's economic size [36][38] Group 4 - The future of China's economic measurement may improve with more detailed service sector statistics and the ongoing internationalization of the yuan, which could provide a more accurate reflection of its economic standing [40]

中国香港一季度GDP同比终值 3.1%，预期 3.1%，初值 3.1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The weak GDP data for Japan in the first quarter suggests that the Bank of Japan may delay interest rate hikes longer than previously anticipated [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's first quarter GDP data was below expectations, particularly disappointing in personal consumption, which remained flat compared to the previous quarter [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to hinder Japan's export growth, leading to a more pessimistic economic outlook from the Bank of Japan [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates as early as July appears to be decreasing based on the current economic indicators [1]

Group 1 - Japan's nominal GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, matching expectations [1] - Japan's GDP decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, slightly worse than the forecast of -0.1% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Japan's inflation is persistently above the Bank of Japan's target, with the CPI rising 3.6% year-on-year in March, marking 36 consecutive months above the 2% target [1] - The core CPI in March also increased by 3.2%, remaining elevated for 43 months, suggesting a sustained inflationary environment that supports the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the central bank [1] - The latest data shows that the core CPI in Tokyo rose by 3.4% in April, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures, particularly driven by rising wages [2] Group 2 - Japan's GDP has shown resilience, growing by 2.9% annually, with exports increasing for six consecutive months, reflecting strong economic activity supported by both domestic and external demand [3] - The services sector PMI has remained robust, providing a counterbalance to the manufacturing sector, which is still below the growth threshold [3] - The Bank of Japan has adjusted its economic outlook, lowering GDP growth forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, while also revising down its core CPI expectations, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [5] Group 3 - The yen has become the best-performing currency among G10 currencies this year, attracting international investment, despite the ongoing depreciation against the dollar due to significant interest rate differentials [4] - The potential for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan remains, although the pace may be influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariff policies, which introduce uncertainty into Japan's economic outlook [4][5] - The Bank of Japan has not indicated a halt to interest rate increases, with the governor emphasizing that further hikes could occur if economic growth and inflation align with expectations [5]