NO.1国泰海通证券：中国股市"转型牛"的格局越来越清晰战略看多2025年 6月9日，国泰海通证券研报表示，中国股市"转型牛"的格局越来越清晰，战略看多2025年：1)遍历冲击 和出清调整后，投资人对经济形势的认识已然充分，其对估值收缩的边际影响减小；2)股票价格反应的 是投资者对未来的预期，而预期变动的主要矛盾，已经从经济周期的波动，转变为贴现率的下降，尤其 是无风险利率与风险认识的系统性降低；3)以化解债务、提振需求与稳定资产价格的中国政策"三支 箭"，以"投资者为本"的资本市场改革，以新技术新消费的商业机会涌现，有助于重新提振投资者对长 期的假设，中国股市迈向"转型牛"。 NO.2天风证券：6月以稳应变，防守反击 ｜2025年6月9日星期一｜ 天风证券（601162）指出，6月，以稳应变，防守反击。根据经济复苏与市场流动性，可以把投资主线 分为三个方向：1)Deepseek突破与开源引领的科技AI+，2)消费股的估值修复和消费分层逐步复苏，3) 低估红利继续崛起。红利回撤常在有强势产业趋势出现的时候，因此低估红利的高度取决于AI产业趋 势的进展，而AI产业趋势的进展又取决于AI应用端和消费端的突破。 N ...

Group 1 - The number of public fund managers in China has surpassed 4,000, highlighting the importance for investors to understand different investment styles [1] - Yang Chao, a fund manager at Jinxin Fund, prefers a conservative investment style focused on identifying undervalued assets with significant future return potential [1][2] - Yang emphasizes the importance of investment efficiency, balancing the time it takes to realize returns with the potential for profit [2][3] Group 2 - Yang's investment philosophy involves seeking undervalued assets during industry downturns, with a focus on sectors like chips, military, and domestic consumption for future investments [1][4] - The recovery of inventory levels and demand growth are key indicators for identifying investment opportunities in specific industries [3][5] - Yang's experience in the chip industry has shown that revenue improvements and inventory reduction can lead to significant investment returns [4][5] Group 3 - Yang's investment strategy includes a broad coverage of industries, including pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, automotive, and new energy, with a recent focus on chips and military sectors [6] - The performance of Jinxin's funds has been significantly influenced by investments in the chip and military sectors, based on the framework of identifying undervalued stocks [7] - Yang's cautious and research-driven approach to investing reflects his personality and preference for left-side opportunities rather than chasing market trends [8][9] Group 4 - The investment landscape for fund managers has become more challenging, with the need for a cyclical perspective to navigate industry highs and lows [9][10] - Despite current challenges, there is optimism about the long-term prospects of the asset management industry [10]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption trend originating from China is gaining global traction, with significant stock market performance in the new consumption sector, particularly the SHS New Consumption Index, which has risen by 72.67% from early 2024 to June 4, 2025, outperforming other indices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The SHS New Consumption Index has significantly outperformed the CS Consumption Index, which increased by 4.93%, and the China Securities White Wine Index, which decreased by 25.27% during the same period [1][2]. - Notable companies in the new consumption sector, such as Miko, Pop Mart, and Laopu Gold, have seen their stock prices reach new highs amid market volatility [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Many top-performing public funds have heavily invested in new consumption stocks, with examples including Pengyang Consumption Theme Mixed Fund A, which has seen a net value increase of 23% year-to-date [2]. - The Southern Hong Kong Growth Fund, which has increased by 36.68% this year, has significant holdings in Pop Mart, Laopu Gold, and Miko, collectively accounting for nearly 30% of its portfolio [2]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The rapid rise of new consumption sectors such as trendy toys, pet economy, and jewelry is attributed to the ability of local companies to meet previously unmet consumer demands through high-quality supply [3]. - The shift in consumer preferences from price-driven to value and experience-driven consumption is highlighted, with brands like Pop Mart and Miniso leading this transformation [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Outlook - Investment strategies are evolving from a focus on sector-wide opportunities to a more fundamental approach, emphasizing companies that can create differentiated value and solidify product strength [1][7]. - The new consumption sector is characterized by companies in the growth phase, presenting both higher uncertainty and explosive growth potential compared to traditional consumption [5][6]. Group 5: Risk Assessment and Market Sentiment - Despite the significant stock price increases, some new consumption stocks are experiencing volatility, with examples like Pop Mart showing fluctuations of over 5% in a single day [7]. - Analysts suggest a potential divergence in performance among new consumption companies, with some facing bubble risks while others may continue to see upward revisions in earnings forecasts [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary consumption sector, including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, and many others [1]. Core Insights - The snacks sector has shown increased prosperity this week, with stock price volatility rising as some new consumption companies approach share release dates [4][10]. - The luxury goods sector, particularly gold and jewelry, has continued to perform well, driven by stable gold prices and brand upgrades [18]. - The sportswear sector has experienced divergence, with Lululemon's earnings slightly exceeding expectations but facing a significant stock price drop due to lowered guidance [19]. - The cosmetics sector has seen a decline, with unresolved issues affecting stock prices, while high-end international brands have performed well [19]. - Most discretionary consumption sectors are still valued below their historical five-year averages, indicating potential investment opportunities [20]. Sector Performance Review - Weekly performance rankings: Snacks > Pet > Luxury Goods > Credit Card > U.S. Hotel > Gambling > Cosmetics > Sportswear, with snacks and pet sectors outperforming the MSCI China index [14]. - Monthly performance rankings: Luxury Goods > Pet > Gambling > Credit Card > Snacks > U.S. Hotel > Cosmetics > Sportswear, with only cosmetics and sportswear underperforming [15]. - Year-to-date performance rankings: Luxury Goods > Pet > Snacks > Cosmetics > Credit Card > U.S. Hotel > Sportswear > Gambling, with luxury goods, pet, snacks, cosmetics, and credit card sectors outperforming [16]. Valuation Analysis - As of June 6, 2025, expected P/E ratios for various sectors indicate that most are below their five-year averages, with the sportswear sector at 15.5x (76% of its average), luxury goods at 21.8x (61%), and snacks at 25.7x (40%) [11][20].

Group 1: Macro and Market Trends - The upcoming index bull market may face a transitional phase of 3-4 months, with weak domestic demand and price signals needing more concrete measures to boost consumption [1] - A-shares are experiencing high volatility after a period of extreme performance, particularly in small-cap and thematic stocks [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to be the main battleground for the current bull market, driven by scarce assets and improving liquidity [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Focusing on high-quality growth stocks and sectors with strong performance potential is essential, especially in traditional industries and new consumption [3] - Emphasizing a balanced allocation across markets, with opportunities in Hong Kong stocks during fluctuations in overseas markets [1][2] - The importance of identifying structural opportunities in the market, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, is highlighted [4][6] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The consumer sector is advised to focus on both mass-market products and emerging new consumption trends, with a shift from undervalued dividends to growth [5] - The AI industry is showing signs of recovery, with significant potential in the domestic market as global leaders perform well [7] - Investment in sectors like automotive, non-ferrous metals, and defense is recommended due to their high industry attractiveness [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The market is currently in a phase of structural transition, with a potential bull market similar to 2019, driven by a combination of new and old economic drivers [8] - Positive signals from U.S.-China trade relations may lead to a more favorable investment environment, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [9][10] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, with a focus on low-valuation sectors and consumer recovery driven by policy support [6][10]

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing restructuring of global trade dynamics, with China's economic ties to emerging markets strengthening while its direct trade with the US is diminishing. This shift is seen as a potential opportunity for China amidst a "strategic stalemate" with the US [4][5][6] - The A-share market is positioned to potentially enter a bull market phase, driven by increasing household asset allocation towards equities, particularly as 2025 marks a peak for deposit reallocations. The report anticipates a gradual shift in asset allocation as residents seek diversified investment options [7][8] - The report suggests that the current market has not yet signaled the start of a bull run, with supply-side improvements clear but demand-side factors remaining complex. The timing for a market rally is still uncertain, with expectations for a clearer picture emerging in 2026 [9][10] Group 2 - A-share earnings forecasts for 2025 indicate a year-on-year growth of 4.6% for non-financial companies, with significant fluctuations expected throughout the year. The second quarter is projected to be a critical window for export recovery, while the latter half of the year may see a decline in demand [12] - The asset management industry is not yet prepared for a bull market, as historical patterns show that a cycle of capital inflow is necessary for a bull market to take hold. The report emphasizes the need for a sustained accumulation of profit effects to trigger a significant shift in public fund dynamics [13] - The report anticipates that the next potential bull market may evolve into a "slow bull" unique to China, characterized by prolonged but gradual improvements in fundamentals and a higher value attribute in the market [18][19]

来源：E起来养基 因为，哥曾经也风光过！ 港股消费品F4，老铺黄金、泡泡玛特、毛戈平、蜜雪集团，今天，股价集体再创新高，各个交流群， 现在不是在聊F4，就是在聊创新药，更是听说，有基金经理因为在群里发表了些对创新药行业不一样 的看法，还被群嘲了。 下午出去交流，等电梯的时候，又听到一个富婆小姐姐在给几位朋友讲泡泡玛特产品卖的有多火，情绪 价值给的有多足。比如，有labubu的小姐姐，看到别的小姐姐包包上也挂着labubu，就会很开心。 再者，如果爱马仕包包上没挂labubu，那也没啥了不起的，反之，要是挂了labubu才算爱马仕，有小富 婆会为了labubu去买一个爱马仕包包。意思是LV档次还低了点？！ 看完、听完这些，我就不由自主的想起了当年抢过的茅台和炒过的潮鞋，因为内核玩法是一样的，new money 在炒产品，old money 在炒对应的股票，大家都有一个共同的发财梦。 只是在这两年，飞天茅台还能抢，有利润，但茅台股是炒不起来了；潮鞋，几乎听不到炒作的声音了， 剁手有个大学朋友是鞋贩子，下午就去打听了下，得到的信息是，"球鞋市场已死，现在资金都去炒泡 泡玛特了"，哈哈哈哈 三是存量资金的自我强化。 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the recent investment style is characterized by three main features: new, small, and fast. The strongest industry trends since September last year are AI and new consumption, which align with new industrial logic [2][6][7] - The first feature, "new," highlights that the strongest industries during 2013-2015 were TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) driven by the growth of mobile internet, similar to the current AI trend. New consumption sectors such as dining, tourism, light industry, and textiles outperformed traditional sectors like food and home appliances [3][6][7] - The second feature, "small," notes that small-cap stocks are currently active, especially during market fluctuations, mirroring the performance of small-cap stocks during 2013-2015 [11][15] - The third feature, "fast," refers to the rapid rotation of market trends, with AI and robotics showing strong excess returns in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year, but weaker performance recently. This mirrors the volatility seen in TMT during 2013-2015 [12][15] Group 2 - The report identifies the underlying reasons for the current investment style as a weak economy with a strong market, a decline in old funds (active public funds), and a rise in new funds (financing balance, speculative quantitative funds). Additionally, continuous policy support is noted, with a slow IPO pace [15][19] - The report suggests that despite a weak economic backdrop, there are structural opportunities in the stock market, similar to the conditions observed during 2013-2015 when economic growth was also weak [15][19] - The report anticipates that the market may experience a slight pullback from late May to July, with pressures including slow economic recovery and reduced trading enthusiasm among retail investors. However, a return to a bullish market is possible in Q3 if any of the factors related to earnings, policy, or retail funds turn optimistic [21][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The new consumption concept is prominent, with incremental market and "self-satisfaction" consumption providing growth momentum. The food and beverage index fell by 1.1% from June 2 to June 6, ranking 27th among primary sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.9 percentage points. Sub-industries such as snacks (+4.6%), health products (+1.7%), and meat products (+1.1%) performed relatively well. Companies with new consumption concepts in the food and beverage sector showed good growth, particularly those expanding into new channels, new product categories, or new markets [4][11][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoints - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 1.1%, ranking 27th out of 28 industries, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 1.9 percentage points. The snack, health product, and meat product sectors showed relative strength [11][12]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's index fell by 1.1%, with snacks, health products, and meat products leading in performance. Individual stocks such as Junyao Health, *ST Spring, and Huabao shares saw significant gains, while companies like Kuaijishan, ST Jia Jia, and Lihai Food faced declines [12][16]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder was $4,173 per ton, down 3.7% month-on-month but up 20% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.1 yuan per kilogram, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 8.4% year-on-year [17][21]. Alcohol Industry News - Kuaijishan's "One Day One Smoke" sparkling yellow wine has begun its招商 (investment promotion). The beer production from large-scale enterprises in China for the first four months of 2025 was 11.44 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%. However, April's production showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, indicating a recovery trend in the sector [40][41]. Memorandum - Attention is drawn to the shareholder meeting of New Dairy Industry scheduled for June 10, 2025. Four companies will hold shareholder meetings, and two companies will have restricted shares released [42][43]. Recommended Portfolio - The recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Ximai Food. Shanxi Fenjiu faces short-term demand pressure but has high medium-term growth certainty. Guizhou Moutai is focusing on sustainable development and increasing dividend rates. Ximai Food is experiencing steady growth in its oatmeal business and is rapidly expanding new channels [5][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming inclusion of companies Bruker, Guming, and Mixue Group into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, indicating potential investment opportunities in new consumer sectors [4][9] - Bruker, as the leading building block toy brand in China, has achieved a market share of 30.3% in 2023, with a global market share of 7.4%. The company is expected to continue its rapid growth through new IP and product launches [4][9] - Guming, the leading ready-to-drink tea brand in China, has expanded its store count to 9,914 by the end of 2024, with a projected GMV of 22.4 billion yuan. The company is well-positioned to capture market share through its differentiated competitive advantages [4][10] - Mixue Group, a leader in affordable ready-to-drink beverages, has established a comprehensive supply chain and has expanded to 45,302 stores by September 2024. The company holds a 31% market share in the sub-10 yuan price segment [4][10] - The report suggests focusing on the newly included consumer brands and highlights the potential for increased brand value and market share due to changing consumer habits [4][11] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report notes a 1.29% increase in the retail index from June 2 to June 6, 2025, and a year-to-date increase of 9.30% [12][23] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies, indicating their market capitalization and projected earnings [21] Market Performance - The report provides insights into the performance of various indices, with the retail index showing a positive trend compared to other sectors [12][22]