Group 1: Market Overview - The steel market in 2026 is expected to see supply-side restrictions due to policy measures, while demand from the real estate sector is stabilizing and manufacturing demand is increasing, leading to a slight upward shift in steel prices [2][11] Group 2: Policy Direction - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes industrial upgrading and structural optimization, with a focus on green transformation, indicating that "reduction does not mean decline, but high-quality development" [3][12] - Key development directions include green (low-carbon smelting, ultra-low emissions), high-end (special steel R&D, quality improvement), and intelligent (digital factories, smart manufacturing) [3][12] Group 3: Raw Material Supply - Global iron ore production is projected to reach 2.65 billion tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 0.68%, driven by the commissioning of the West Simandou mine and expansions by major miners [4][12] - Domestic scrap steel supply is expected to reach approximately 320 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.28%, due to increased vehicle dismantling and relaxed import policies [4][12] Group 4: Supply Control - The "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" mandates precise control of production capacity and prohibits new capacity additions, leading to a slight decline in crude steel production and capacity in 2026 [5][16] Group 5: Demand Analysis - The real estate sector is expected to remain under pressure, with a projected 5% decline in steel usage, despite stable factors from affordable housing projects [6][17] - Infrastructure projects supported by special bonds are expected to drive steel demand, with usage projected at approximately 240-250 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%-2.0% [6][17] - Manufacturing demand is anticipated to grow, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors, with household appliances expected to maintain a 6% growth rate [6][17] Group 6: Price Forecast - Overall, the steel market is expected to experience a slight decrease in demand, with construction steel demand continuing to decline, while manufacturing steel demand increases [7][18] - Steel prices are predicted to see a slight upward shift due to reduced supply pressure and improved industry profitability, although the overall increase is expected to be limited [8][19]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined the direction for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the importance of fundamental support and long-term development trends, with several sectors expected to continuously release high-quality development momentum [1] Group 1: Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is entering a new stage of deep application, with a robust support system developing in hard technology fields such as advanced manufacturing [2] - The construction of three major international technology innovation centers (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area) is fostering a collaborative environment for talent, technology, and industry [2] - The deepening expansion of "Artificial Intelligence +" will drive AI technology's penetration into various sectors, including manufacturing, healthcare, transportation, and services, enhancing the collaborative upgrade of the industrial chain [2] Group 2: Modern Industrial System - The industrial system in China is evolving towards consolidating strengths and enhancing overall competitiveness, involving the transformation of traditional industries through digital and green technologies [3] - The continuous optimization of the industrial ecosystem will highlight the advantages of industry leaders and companies with genuine technological innovation capabilities [3] Group 3: Domestic Demand Market Potential - Domestic demand, particularly consumption, plays a fundamental role in China's economic growth, with rising household income and innovative consumption scenarios creating numerous opportunities [4] - Diverse and quality consumption sectors such as the silver economy, ice and snow economy, leisure tourism, and service consumption are expected to benefit continuously [4] - Actions aimed at reducing logistics costs and promoting urban renewal will not only constitute effective investments but also enhance economic efficiency, creating opportunities in modern logistics, smart cities, and green buildings [4] Group 4: Efficiency and High-Level Opening Up - The continuous release of institutional dividends is crucial for high-quality development, with the deepening of the national unified market construction expected to eliminate regional barriers and enhance factor allocation efficiency [5] - The expansion of free trade zones, the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port, and the development of the Belt and Road Initiative will open broader market spaces for internationally competitive Chinese high-end manufacturing, cross-border e-commerce, and financial services [5] Group 5: Green Transformation - The green transformation under the "dual carbon" goals is viewed as a high-certainty long-term development track, with the construction of a new energy system and the development of a national carbon market driving growth in wind power, photovoltaics, energy storage, and carbon monitoring services [6] - Energy-saving and carbon-reduction renovations, along with comprehensive solid waste management, will create sustained demand in the environmental technology and circular economy sectors [6] - New development models in real estate and the construction of "good houses" may present new opportunities in green buildings, smart homes, and urban operation services [6] Conclusion - With the Central Economic Work Conference convened, the coordinated efforts of various policies and the deepening of reform and opening up are expected to solidify and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, with the capital market serving as a vital platform for resource allocation and a window to observe economic structural changes [7]

Core Viewpoint - Angela Merkel criticizes the U.S. national security strategy, emphasizing that Europe should not be manipulated by Washington, highlighting the need for strategic autonomy in Europe [1][3][7] Group 1: U.S.-Europe Relations - The U.S. views the EU as a troublemaker in its new national security strategy, criticizing various aspects such as immigration policy and political correctness [1] - Trump's aggressive tactics include imposing tariffs on the EU while attempting to divide member states, leading to a perception of Europe as a losing party in the relationship [1][5] - Merkel's remarks serve as a wake-up call for European leaders who have been overly focused on transatlantic ties [1][3] Group 2: Europe's Current Challenges - Europe faces multiple pressures: being treated as a tool by the U.S., losing trust with Russia due to ongoing conflicts, and severe internal inflation leading to economic concerns [5] - The decline in purchasing power in Europe is significant, with a reported decrease of 20-30% over five years, exacerbated by factory relocations to the U.S. [3] - The current European leadership has moved away from Merkel's strategic vision, undermining the potential for cooperation with Russia and contributing to the ongoing crisis [3][5] Group 3: Strategic Autonomy and Cooperation - Merkel advocates for a balanced approach, suggesting that Europe should not completely distance itself from the U.S. but must protect its interests [3] - She emphasizes the importance of AI regulation and digital sovereignty, warning that losing control over algorithms could jeopardize Europe's information sovereignty [3] - Merkel calls for Europe to engage in substantial cooperation with China, particularly in areas like technology and green transformation, to regain strategic confidence [5][7] Group 4: Future Directions for Europe - The choice for Europe is clear: either continue to be a pawn in U.S. strategies or reclaim strategic autonomy by fostering genuine partnerships with countries like China [5][7] - Merkel's statements reflect a broader need for Europe to navigate a multipolar world without being dominated by U.S. directives or ideological constraints [7] - The urgency for Europe to recalibrate its relationships and focus on pragmatic cooperation is emphasized, particularly in the context of digital investment and technological advancement [5][7]

Core Insights - The Chinese geomembrane industry is experiencing a critical period of scale expansion and structural upgrading, with a projected market size of 13.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.98% driven by demand from water conservancy projects, environmental remediation, and transportation infrastructure [3][5][9]. Industry Development Stages - The development of the geomembrane application in China can be categorized into three stages: 1. The spontaneous application period (1960-1970s) marked by early uses in projects like the PVC film channels in Henan and Shanxi. 2. The promotion period (1980s) where foreign technology was introduced, leading to significant breakthroughs in composite structures. 3. The perfection period (1990s to present) characterized by the widespread use of HDPE geomembranes in major national projects, showcasing the evolution from technical breakthroughs to comprehensive application [4]. Market Size and Growth - The geomembrane market in China is projected to reach approximately 13.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.98% attributed to the ongoing demand for high-performance impermeable materials in various sectors, including water conservancy and environmental projects [5][9]. Competitive Landscape - The geomembrane industry in China exhibits a "head concentration, multi-symbiosis" competitive structure, with leading companies like Dezhou Longxiang and Hongxiang New Materials dominating the high-end market through advanced technologies and comprehensive service capabilities [6][9]. Market Trends - Future trends in the geomembrane industry will focus on "high performance, intelligence, and ecological sustainability," driven by technological advancements, green transformations, and global expansion efforts [7].

对话冯德莱恩顾问：中国创新体系很成功，期望中欧关系更具合作性 近期，意大利创新局局长、欧盟委员会顾问弗朗西斯卡·布里亚教授受邀参与"明德战略对话2025"，围 绕"中国式现代化，全球化新动能"，与中国人民大学重阳金融研究院院长、全球领导力学院院长王文展 开深度交流。本次对话聚焦于中国发展道路、全球技术竞争、中欧合作前景等核心议题，为理解当代中 国与世界的互动提供了富有启发的视角。 中国在传承中开放，以发展谋福祉 王文：非常欢迎各位再次关注"明德战略对话"。今天，我倍感荣幸地邀请到弗朗西斯卡·布里亚 (Francesca Bria)教授。她不仅是意大利的知名教授，更肩负着诸多社会与公众事务的重任。她现任意大 利创新局局长，同时也是欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的顾问。 布里亚教授上一次来华是2012年。这一次，我们和"明德战略对话"另外一些成员朝夕相处，去了上海、 浙江，现在又回到北京，有了很长时间的沟通和交流。我的第一个问题是，相比12年前您来中国，觉得 中国最重要的改变有哪些？此次中国行，您最深刻的印象是什么？ 弗朗西斯卡·布里亚：非常感谢，很高兴能够出席本次对话。十二年前，在伦敦帝国理工学院攻读完博 士学位后，我 ...

库（CCG）创始人、国务院原参事王辉耀 中新社记者 蒋启明摄 转自：北京日报客户端 中国新闻社16日在北京主办以"新格局·新动能"为主题的"国是论坛：2025年会"，为"十五五"时期推进中 国式现代化建言献策。全球化智库（CCG）创始人、国务院原参事王辉耀表示，中国可能引领新一轮 全球化机遇，引领21世纪的绿色转型，在这方面有绝对的竞争优势。 全球化智 "'十四五'期间我们的可再生能源已经从40%提升到60%，'十五五'可能会从60%提升到70%甚至80%，趋 势非常迅猛。"王辉耀说。 来源：北京日报客户端 王辉耀说，英国靠蒸汽机和纺织、铁路完成工业革命，引领了19世纪的全球化；美国凭借电气化、半导 体、互联网引领了20世纪的全球化；21世纪，中国迎来了绿色转型为核心的新的全球化时代，这一轮转 型中，中国不仅具有最完整的产业链和市场规模，也在光伏、风能、电动汽车、储能等关键领域处在全 球领先地位，成为全球绿色革命的核心力量。 王辉耀列举说，中国新增太阳能装机容量已经超过全球所有国家的总和，高铁占了全球70%，5G占全 球60%，新能源方面是其他所有国家的1.6倍，持续推动全球清洁能源成本下降。2024年，太阳 ...

Market Overview - The domestic retail sales in November 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, which is below market expectations, with a total retail sales amounting to 4.39 trillion yuan [8] - Cumulative retail sales from January to November 2025 reached 45.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [8] - The consumer confidence index in October 2025 was recorded at 89.4, indicating a slight decline of 0.2 from the previous month [8] Industry Insights Textile and Apparel Sector - The textile and apparel retail sales growth in November 2025 decreased by 2.8 percentage points, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [7][10] - The performance of major brands such as Bosideng is expected to remain strong due to continuous innovation in core products and a favorable comparison to last year's low base [7] - Recommendations include brands like 361 Degrees and Anta Sports, with a focus on their potential for growth in the upcoming seasons [7] Jewelry and Retail Sector - The jewelry retail sales in November 2025 increased by 8.5% year-on-year, driven primarily by price increases, despite a slight month-on-month decline [10] - Companies with strong terminal performance and differentiated products in the jewelry sector are recommended for investment [10] Electric Equipment and New Energy Sector - The report highlights that the company UBTECH has secured orders exceeding 50 million yuan for humanoid robots, indicating a growing demand in the AI and robotics market [11] - The central economic meeting emphasized the importance of green transformation and the establishment of a new energy system, which could benefit companies in the renewable energy sector [12] Supply Chain and Pricing Trends - The report notes that the prices of polysilicon and silicon wafers have remained stable, with polysilicon prices at 52.0 yuan/kg and silicon wafer prices showing signs of stabilization after previous declines [12] - The battery cell prices have seen a slight decrease, with N-type battery cells priced at 0.28 yuan/W, indicating ongoing price pressures in the market [12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the photovoltaic sector such as LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar, as well as those involved in supply chain improvements and market-oriented energy solutions [13] - Companies like Miniso and Yonghui Supermarket are highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential in the retail sector [10]

当前，世界正经历百年未有之大变局，中国坚定不移地实施高水平对外开放战略，不仅是实现自身 高质量发展的必由之路，也是重塑全球化内生动力、引领全球治理体系变革的关键路径。通过制度型开 放、单边开放与区域合作等多维并举，中国正从"开放大国"向"开放强国"跨越。 中国以负责任大国的担当，通过一系列务实举措为世界注入更多确定性和发展动能。中国是150多 个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴，成为全球清洁能源发展的主要推动力量，为绿色转型作出实质性贡献， 通过共建"一带一路"倡议等积极推动国际合作。中国持续深化开放，为资本开辟了新的、更具吸引力的 航道。制定并实施更具前瞻性和战略性的开放策略，将增强中国重塑全球化的能力。 首先，稳步扩大制度型开放。在当前单边主义、保护主义升温的背景下，国际经贸规则体系正经历 深刻演变。面对新形势，我们应抢抓机遇、积极作为，稳步推进自主开放与单边开放进程，全面提升驾 驭高水平对外开放的综合能力。聚焦服务业等重点领域，进一步放宽市场准入，拓展对外开放的广度与 深度。同时，主动融入国际高标准经贸规则体系，积极参与数字贸易、人工智能等新兴领域的国际规则 磋商与制定，营造更加稳定、透明、可预期的发展环境。坚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance in 2023, with the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index rising by 75.82%, driven primarily by industrial metals like copper, gold, and lead-zinc [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index has increased by 75.82% year-to-date, ranking it among the top sectors in the Shenwan industry index [2]. - Within the sector, industrial metals have led the gains, with the Shenwan Copper Index up by 100.57%, Shenwan Gold Index up by 79.17%, Shenwan Lead-Zinc Index up by 75.06%, and Shenwan Aluminum Index up by 51.75% [2]. - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points on December 11, related ETFs have seen significant net inflows, with the Southern Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals ETF receiving a net inflow of 468 million yuan in the week leading up to December 15 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by loose liquidity and geopolitical tensions, has positively impacted non-ferrous metal prices [3]. - Industrial metal inventories are at historical lows, with global refined copper stocks at 1,451 thousand tons as of November 30, the lowest in nearly 35 years [3]. - The aluminum production capacity utilization is nearing its maximum, with mainstream electrolytic aluminum inventories at 584 thousand tons, also at historically low levels [3]. Group 3: Future Demand Trends - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to grow significantly due to the green transition, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and AI infrastructure [4]. - By the third quarter of 2025, copper demand from electric vehicles and charging stations is projected to increase, with a year-on-year growth of 8% in apparent copper consumption in China [4]. - The trend of "using aluminum instead of copper" is accelerating, with ongoing demand in air conditioning heat exchangers and battery trays for electric vehicles [4]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite a recent decline of 2.63% in the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index, institutions maintain a positive long-term outlook for the sector under the premise of macroeconomic easing [5]. - The focus is on the "three safe-haven metals": copper, aluminum, and gold, with copper expected to face supply-demand tightness by 2026 due to reduced production forecasts from leading copper mining companies [6]. - Investment strategies suggest prioritizing leading companies with core mining rights and those with deep processing capabilities, emphasizing the dual themes of supply rigidity and green premium [6].

● 本报记者 葛瑶 今年以来，有色金属板块表现亮眼，中证申万有色金属指数累计上涨75.82%，位居申万一级行业涨幅 榜前列。其中，铜、黄金、铅锌等细分品种涨幅居前，工业金属成为板块上涨主要驱动力。 机构人士认为，在全球宏观流动性宽松的背景下，有色金属凭借供需刚性、避险属性及绿色转型需求， 中长期配置价值凸显，尤其看好铜、铝、黄金"避险三剑客"，优先布局拥有核心矿权的龙头企业，重点 关注具备深加工能力的标的。 有色金属板块领跑A股 Wind数据显示，截至12月16日，中证申万有色金属指数今年以来累计上涨75.82%，位居申万一级行业 涨幅榜前列。 细分来看，有色金属板块内部呈现结构性行情，工业金属品种领涨，成为板块上涨的主要驱动力。申万 铜指数今年以来累计涨幅达100.57%，位居板块内首位；申万黄金指数累计涨幅为79.17%；申万铅锌指 数累计涨幅为75.06%；申万铝指数累计涨幅为51.75%。 资金面上，市场情绪持续高涨。12月11日美联储如期降息25个基点后，有色金属相关ETF连续多日迎来 资金净流入。截至12月15日，南方中证申万有色金属ETF近一周获净流入4.68亿元，万家中证工业有色 金属主题ET ...