Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that fiscal policy will increase investment in technology, consumption, investment, education, and health sectors to promote development while managing risks [1][2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring sustained and efficient financial support through various fiscal tools [1][2] - Fiscal policy is expected to further support technological innovation, focusing on basic research, applied research, and national strategic technology tasks [2][3] Group 2 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, national fiscal science and technology expenditure is projected to reach 5.5 trillion yuan, a 34% increase from the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - Basic research investment is expected to total 730 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 12.3% [2] - The fiscal policy aims to stimulate consumption and investment, utilizing fiscal and tax policy tools to enhance domestic demand [2][3] Group 3 - The central government allocated 318.6 billion yuan for employment support during the "14th Five-Year Plan," a 29% increase from the previous period, resulting in over 50 million new urban jobs [3] - Continuous fiscal policy efforts are crucial for promoting economic growth, supporting industrial upgrades, and improving people's livelihoods [3] - The fiscal policy is driving China's economy towards an "innovation-driven" transformation, emphasizing the need for coordination between fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies [3]

Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US economy continues to expand, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a Q3 growth rate of 3.1%, driven by stable consumer momentum and strong investment in technology [2] - Jobless claims have increased, with initial claims rising by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest in four years, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - Inflation remains manageable, with August PPI unexpectedly dropping to 2.6%, significantly below the expected 3.3%, while CPI slightly increased to 2.9% [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The US is expected to restart monetary easing, with market participants fully pricing in three rate cuts this year, leading to a decline in private sector financing costs [3] - The 30-year mortgage rate fell by 15 basis points to 6.25%, and the 10-year AAA corporate bond yield decreased by 8 basis points to 4.26% [3] - US stock markets rose, influenced by the Fed's dovish outlook, although valuations are considered high, with future gains expected to come from corporate earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - Short-term interest rates are expected to decline as the easing cycle begins, but the long-term rates may remain volatile due to economic resilience and inflationary pressures [4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to average 4.3% this year and 4.2% next year, with a fluctuation range of 3.5% to 5% [4] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The US dollar is anticipated to remain in a range-bound trading pattern, with a fluctuation range of 95 to 103, due to the dual support of easing monetary policy and fiscal expansion [5] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a strong stance in the short term, although potential fluctuations may arise from changes in the A-share market and US rate cut expectations [5] - Gold is viewed positively, benefiting from the Fed's easing cycle and ongoing global central bank purchases [5] Group 5: China Economic Insights - China's economy is showing signs of slowdown, with external demand weakening and internal demand potentially continuing to decline [7] - August macro data indicates a drop in export and import growth rates, with exports to the US declining by 33.1% [7] - The government is implementing policies to stabilize growth in key industries, including the automotive sector, with a target of approximately 3% growth in overall vehicle sales by 2025 [9] Group 6: Market Strategy and Recommendations - The current market sentiment favors equities over bonds, with a recommendation to hold short to medium-duration bonds while being cautious with long-duration investments [12] - The A-share market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.52%, supported by liquidity and favorable policies [13] - Investment strategies suggest maintaining dividend stocks as a stable base, while allocating to growth sectors like technology and healthcare for potential gains [14]

Key Points - The article discusses the recent trends in China's export and inflation data, highlighting a decline in export growth and a potential recovery in PPI due to improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries [3][4] - It notes the tightening of funding prices, with a net withdrawal of 440.2 billion yuan from the central bank's open market operations, leading to a slight increase in DR007 to around 1.48% [4] - The primary market is expected to see a gradual decrease in supply pressure, with a total issuance of 74 bonds amounting to 632.5 billion yuan during the reporting period [5] - The secondary market is experiencing upward pressure, influenced by a strong equity market and adjustments in fund redemption fees, which may negatively impact bond investments [5] - The outlook indicates that both domestic and external demand pressures remain significant, with a focus on fiscal policies aimed at strengthening domestic circulation and potential central bank actions to support liquidity [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of economic and corporate earnings on the stock index is neutral. In August, the growth rate of social financing declined for the first time, with a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan in new social financing. The growth rate of government bond net financing decreased year - on - year for the first time since November 2023. Corporate short - term loans reached a record high, while household short - term loans hit a new low. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 increased slightly, but the growth rate slowed down [3]. - Macroeconomic policies have a slightly positive impact on the stock index. The Ministry of Finance will maintain policy continuity and stability, and strengthen flexibility and foresight. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts within the year has increased [3]. - Overseas factors have a slightly positive impact on the stock index. In August, the year - on - year growth rates of the US CPI and core CPI were within market expectations, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. Sino - US leaders will hold talks [3]. - Liquidity has a positive impact on the stock index. As of September 11, the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was at a high level in the past decade. However, last week, the average daily trading volume decreased compared with the previous week [3]. - The investment view is to adjust and go long. Next week, there will be a large number of domestic and foreign macro - events. The Fed will announce its September interest rate decision, and Sino - US leaders will hold talks. The trading volume of the market has decreased, and the driving force of liquidity on the stock index has weakened. It is recommended to control risks in stock index positions and mainly adjust and go long [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Driving Forces**: Economic and corporate earnings are neutral; macro - policies are slightly positive; overseas factors are slightly positive; liquidity is positive [3]. - **Investment View and Strategy**: The investment view is to adjust and go long. The trading strategy is to adjust and go long unilaterally, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Stock Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.38% to 4522; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.89% to 2968.5; the CSI 500 rose 3.38% to 7147.7; the CSI 1000 rose 2.45% to 7422.9 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, electronics, real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, media, and non - ferrous metals led the gains last week, while only the comprehensive, banking, pharmaceutical and biological, and social service sectors declined [10]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CSI 300 futures decreased by 21.88%, and the open interest increased by 0.05% [12]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of September 12, different contracts of various stock index futures had different premium or discount rates [16]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance**: The spread between the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 were at different historical percentile levels [20]. 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan. Next week, 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, and there will also be 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing [27]. - **Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading Balance**: As of September 11, the margin trading balance of A - shares increased, and the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was at a high level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week decreased compared with the previous week [34]. 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **China's Macroeconomic Indicators**: In August, indicators such as GDP, industrial added value, and social financing showed different trends. For example, the growth rate of social financing stock declined for the first time after rising for 10 consecutive months [37]. - **Economic Fundamentals - Real Estate**: The real estate market showed signs of weakness, such as a decline in the growth rate of real estate investment [37]. - **Economic Fundamentals - Consumption**: The growth rates of various consumption indicators showed different trends, with some categories experiencing growth and others decline [48]. - **Economic Fundamentals - Manufacturing**: The growth rate of the manufacturing industry showed a certain degree of slowdown, but different sub - sectors had different performances [49]. - **Corporate Earnings**: The earnings of different stock indices and industries showed different trends. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit of the CSI 500 was 7.30% in the first half of 2025 [56]. 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced in the real estate, consumption, and finance sectors. For example, Shanghai and Shenzhen have adjusted real estate purchase restrictions, and the government has introduced a fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans [61][62]. 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In August, the US manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI increased, the consumer confidence index rose, the unemployment rate increased slightly, and the number of new non - farm jobs decreased. The growth rates of CPI and core CPI were within market expectations, while the year - on - year growth rates of PCE and core PCE were 0% [70][73]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Measures**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have had an impact on global trade and Sino - US economic and trade relations [79][81]. 3.7 Part Six: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation Levels**: As of September 12, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were at different historical percentile levels [87]. - **Sector Profitability and Valuation Levels**: Different sectors had different levels of return on equity, revenue growth rates, and price - to - earnings and price - to - book ratios [91].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In August 2025, the total social financing (社融) stock increased by 8.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Loan stock grew by 6.8% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - M1 increased by 6% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] - M2 maintained a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, unchanged from the previous month[2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Loan Structure - Government bond financing under social financing increased by 21.1% year-on-year, contributing 4 percentage points to the growth of social financing[2] - The growth rate of fiscal deposits was 7.1% year-on-year, down 1 percentage point from the previous month[2] - Total loans increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with corporate loans showing a significant increase of 540 billion yuan, up 240 billion yuan from the previous year[2] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.20 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year[2] Group 3: Capital Market Activity - Non-financial corporate stock financing in August continued to exceed the same period last year, indicating improved access to equity markets[2] - New household deposits slowed to 110 billion yuan, a decrease of 600 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate since November 2018[2] - Non-financial corporate deposits increased to 1.18 trillion yuan, up 550 billion yuan year-on-year, suggesting a potential shift of household savings into the capital market[2] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - Risks include potential underperformance of growth policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns[11] - Investment ratings suggest a strong recommendation for stocks expected to outperform the market by over 20% in the next six months[12]

20250913棉系周报： 新棉上市在即 需求不振下棉价承压运行 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年9月13日 周度综述：摘要 | 因素 | 性质 | 观点概览 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、美国劳工统计局公布最新数据。 美国8月CPI同比2.9%，持平预期； CPI环比0.4%，略高于预期的0.3%；核心CP同比 | | | | 3.1%，环比0.3%，均持平预期和前值。美国上周初请失业金人数增加2.7万人至26.3万人，创2021年10月以来的最高。数据 | | 宏观 | 中性 | 公布后,市场充分消化了美联储年底前降息三次的情景。 | | | | 2、财政部部长蓝佛安在全国人大常委会作报告指出,下一步用好用足更加积极的财政政策、全力支持稳就业稳外贸,加 | | | | 快培育壮大发展新动能,进一步保障和改善民生,持续用力防范化解重点领域风险,不断提升财政治理效能和水平。 | | 供应 | 中性偏空 | 1、巴西方面，据CONAB9月数据显示，本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's fiscal policy will continue to balance risk prevention and development promotion, with ample room for future fiscal policy actions [1] - China's long-term economic stability remains unchanged, providing a solid foundation for fiscal operations [1] - The experience accumulated in macroeconomic regulation has enhanced the ability for counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [1] Group 2 - The fiscal department will maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in policy planning [1] - The domestic margin balance has reached a new high of 2.3 trillion yuan, indicating a sustained market profit effect that may attract more funds [1] - The Guotai CSI A500 ETF (159338) is highlighted as a representative broad-based product for investors to capture long-term investment opportunities in China's economy [1]

Group 1 - The core theme of the forum is "expanding domestic demand to respond to challenges" [3] - Professor Zhao Jingmei emphasizes the importance of expectation management in monetary policy to boost confidence among businesses and consumers [3][4] - Zhao highlights that pessimistic expectations can lead to self-fulfilling prophecies, negatively impacting investment and consumption, which are crucial for economic growth [3][4] Group 2 - Zhao provides an example from 1987 when the Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan's statement helped stabilize the stock market after a crash, illustrating the significance of expectation management [4] - In the short term, monetary policy should focus on building confidence and expectations; in the medium term, it should work alongside fiscal policy to restore confidence among local governments, businesses, and citizens; and in the long term, it should adhere to reform and opening-up [4]

Core Insights - The fiscal revenue in China is projected to reach 106 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the previous plan [2] - Public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase over the previous five years, with a focus on optimizing the structure of spending towards development and public welfare [2][4] Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - The correlation between fiscal policy and domestic demand has significantly increased in recent years, particularly in the post-real estate era, highlighting the importance of government spending in stabilizing the economy [3] - The fiscal deficit ratio has risen from 2.7% to 4% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with new local government special bond quotas set at 19.4 trillion yuan and tax reductions exceeding 1 trillion yuan [3] Social Welfare and Public Spending - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, the general public budget allocated 20.5 trillion yuan for education, 19.6 trillion yuan for social security and employment, and 10.6 trillion yuan for health care, totaling nearly 100 trillion yuan for social welfare [6] - Employment support measures have been enhanced, with 3.186 billion yuan allocated for employment subsidies, resulting in over 50 million new urban jobs [6] Fiscal Reform and Structural Changes - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for deepening fiscal and tax reforms to ensure a more scientific budget management and a more robust fiscal system [7] - The central government's transfer payments to local governments have totaled nearly 50 trillion yuan since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, aimed at enhancing local fiscal capabilities [8] Future Outlook - The Ministry of Finance aims to strengthen macroeconomic regulation and deepen fiscal reforms in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, contributing to the modernization of the country [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level shows that the Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, and Shenzhen has adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - In terms of fundamentals, last week's industrial data was average. Steel production decreased, hot - rolled coil apparent demand rebounded, but rebar apparent demand declined. The peak - season demand expectation was hard to fulfill, and rebar inventory continued to accumulate. With good steel - mill resumption, strong raw - material support, limited peak - season demand recovery, and weak spot prices, steel futures prices are expected to fluctuate [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3127 | - 16 | - 0.51 | 9051013 | 3329767 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3364 | 24 | 0.72 | 2667967 | 1323310 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 799.5 | 10.0 | 1.27 | 1727027 | 538976 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1144.5 | - 14.0 | - 1.21 | 6923190 | 910688 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1625.5 | - 21.0 | - 1.28 | 130356 | 52840 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated slightly down. From Monday to Thursday, prices dropped due to poor demand recovery, and on Friday, policy expectations increased, warming market sentiment and pushing up steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3010 (+20) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (-20) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 (+20) Yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - In August, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a decrease of 326,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 3.3%. From January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6][7] - The preliminary value of the change in the US non - farm employment benchmark in 2025 was - 911,000, expected to be - 700,000, and the previous value was - 598,000 [10] - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month change [10] - In August, automobile production and sales in China were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4% [10] - On September 5th, Shenzhen adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - On September 14th, China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid, Spain [10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot price differences, steel - mill profits, blast - furnace operating rates, production, inventory, and apparent consumption [9][11][18] etc.