Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Gold prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and gradually increase in the long - term. Silver prices are generally strong but may not sustain a unilateral upward trend. It is recommended to allocate more on dips for gold in the long - run [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 4, 2025, London gold spot was at $3342.39/oz, London silver spot at $36.85/oz, COMEX gold at $3351.90/oz, and COMEX silver at $37.04/oz. Compared to July 3, gold prices decreased by about 0.6% while silver prices had a 0.2% increase in London spot and 0.0% in COMEX [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread on July 4 was - 2.28 yuan/g with an 18.8% increase from July 3. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 86.88, a - 0.2% change [3] Position Data - **COMEX Gold Positions**: As of July 3, non - commercial long positions were 256077 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 61073 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 195004 contracts. Compared to July 2, non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.73%, short positions increased by 1.89%, and net long positions decreased by 2.81% [3] - **COMEX Silver Positions**: Non - commercial long positions on July 3 were 84491 contracts, short positions were 21544 contracts, and net long positions were 62947 contracts. Compared to July 2, long positions decreased by 5.06%, short positions decreased by 1.26%, and net long positions decreased by 6.29% [3] - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF - SPDR held 947.66 tons and silver ETF - SLV held 14868.73549 tons on July 3, with a 0.00% change in gold and a 0.15% increase in silver compared to July 2 [3] Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventories**: On July 4, SHFE gold inventory was 21456.00 kg, a 16.25% increase from July 3, and SHFE silver inventory was 1339746.00 kg, a - 0.08% change [3] - **COMEX Inventories**: COMEX gold inventory on July 3 was 36785583 troy ounces, a - 0.71% change, and COMEX silver inventory was 499281076 troy ounces, a - 0.18% change [3] Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - **Exchange Rates**: The USD/CNY central parity rate on July 4 was 7.15, a 0.02% change from July 3 [3] - **Interest Rates and Stock Market**: The US dollar index on July 3 was 97.12, a 0.35% increase from July 2. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, a 2.65% increase, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, a 1.16% increase [3] Market News and Analysis - **Market News**: The US House of Representatives passed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, and President Trump signed it into law on July 4. China and the US are implementing the outcomes of the London economic and trade talks. India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, and the EU - US trade negotiation will continue [3] - **Market Analysis**: On July 4, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed down 0.22% at 777.06 yuan/g, and the Shanghai silver futures main contract closed up 0.59% at 8919 yuan/kg. Short - term gold prices are pressured by strong US non - farm data and improved risk appetite, but supported by tariff uncertainties. Silver prices are strong but may not sustain an upward trend due to factors like slowed demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's announcement of punitive tariffs on various countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 60%, and explores the implications for global trade dynamics, particularly for China, Japan, and the EU [1][4][19]. Group 1: Trump's Tariff Strategy - Trump has initiated a series of tariff notifications to approximately 10-12 countries, with rates significantly higher than previously mentioned, indicating a strong stance on trade negotiations [4][6]. - The new tariffs are set to take effect on August 1, which provides an additional month for negotiations, suggesting a potential compromise in Trump's approach [1][6]. - The EU has prepared for negotiations but maintains a strong position, indicating readiness to implement countermeasures if talks fail, with potential retaliatory measures amounting to €72 billion [10][8]. Group 2: Responses from Japan and the EU - Japan faces significant pressure from Trump's proposed tariffs, particularly a 25% tariff on automobiles, which threatens its key industrial sector [11][13]. - Japan's government has firmly stated it will not compromise on agricultural tariffs, indicating a rigid stance in negotiations [11][13]. - The EU's response includes a commitment to protect its economy and consider all countermeasures, reflecting a unified front against U.S. tariffs [10][8]. Group 3: China's Position - China, having already signed agreements with the U.S., may find itself in a favorable position amidst the global trade tensions, potentially benefiting from the discord between the U.S. and its allies [15][17]. - The trade pressures from the U.S. have prompted the EU to reconsider its relationship with China, leading to a reduction in negative media portrayals of China [15][17]. - China's relationship with Japan is also improving, as both countries seek to strengthen ties in light of U.S. tariffs, indicating a shift in regional dynamics [15][17].

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by the U.S. has led to a shift in global dynamics, with many countries, inspired by China's firm stance, refusing to yield to U.S. pressure [1][2] - The U.S. is facing increasing difficulties in its trade relations, particularly with China, as it relies heavily on Chinese manufacturing and strategic resources like rare earth minerals [1][2] - The European Union has taken a strong position against the U.S., planning to implement counter-tariffs on U.S. goods worth €210 billion and potentially up to €950 billion [4][5] Group 2 - Japan has shifted from a compliant stance to a confrontational one, refusing to accept a 25% tariff on automobiles, indicating a significant change in its trade policy [5][6] - India, previously seen as likely to concede to U.S. demands, is now prepared to resist, with its representatives arriving in the U.S. for negotiations [5][6] - Canada has taken a bold step by imposing a digital services tax on U.S. tech companies, which has escalated tensions with the U.S. [6][8] Group 3 - The U.S. is in a precarious position as it faces a potential trade war with 30 countries, and the expiration of its high tariffs on certain trade partners is approaching [8][9] - Recent data shows that the U.S. trade deficit has widened significantly, and GDP growth has underperformed, putting additional pressure on the Trump administration [9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the misguided belief among some developing countries, including India, that they can replicate China's development model to become global powers, which often leads to disappointment due to their relatively weaker capabilities [1] - India announced retaliatory tariffs against the US on July 4, 2023, in response to a 25% increase in tariffs on various Indian goods by the US, significantly impacting India's exports [1][5] - The trade dynamics between India and the US show a significant imbalance, with India's exports to the US projected at $874 billion and imports at $418 billion for 2024, resulting in a trade surplus of approximately $400 billion for India [1] Group 2 - India's exports to the US primarily consist of generic drugs, petroleum products, solar panels, telecom equipment, garments, and precious stones, which account for about 40% of total exports, while the US exports high-end products like weapons, chips, and machinery to India [3] - Indian officials often exhibit a sense of entitlement, believing they are a central player on the world stage, which leads to a dismissive attitude towards US pressure [3] - The ongoing trade negotiations between India and the US have faced significant challenges, leading to a perception that India's responses are more bluster than substance, particularly in the context of domestic crises [5][6] Group 3 - Modi's government is under pressure to respond to the US with equivalent countermeasures, even if they are merely symbolic, indicating India's willingness to stand up to the US alongside China [8] - The friction between the US and India presents opportunities for China, allowing it to observe and prepare for potential shifts in the geopolitical landscape [8] - The article suggests that if the US continues its current approach, it may inadvertently push India and other countries closer to China, potentially altering the balance of power in the region [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing tensions in Sino-U.S. relations since the Trump administration, emphasizing the need for bilateral cooperation to improve the situation [1][3][4] - Experts attribute the strained relationship to multiple factors, including domestic political dynamics in the U.S. and the evolving nature of both countries' policies [3][4] - The Trump administration's "America First" policy and its trade war are seen as attempts to address domestic fiscal issues and revitalize U.S. manufacturing, rather than a direct intention to harm other nations [4] Group 2 - Scholars suggest that despite current difficulties, there are still opportunities for cooperation in various fields, and rebuilding trust is essential [5][6] - Historical examples, such as the 1971 invitation of the U.S. table tennis team to China, are cited as potential models for improving relations through smaller, symbolic gestures [5] - The need for the U.S. to recognize the interconnectedness of trade, investment, technology, and finance is emphasized, as well as the importance of addressing economic challenges collaboratively [6]

贸易战又开始了，不过这次的剧本，变了。 7月4日，特朗普把话撂得明明白白：新的关税清单信函已经发出，关税率有高有低，最狠能上七成，温柔的也有十几二十。新的征税，8月1日见分晓。这一 信，直接把全球拉回了关税暗战的牌桌上。 但仔细看，美国这一次不是一股脑儿全线开火；反倒是对中方放下架子，开始"选择性开刀"。 先说背景。这事的源头还得追到4月2日。当时美国高调宣布对全球180多个国家征"对等关税"，直接吓坏了世界工厂。没想到几天后，他们自己就"刹 车"了：4月9日宣布，对75国延迟征税90天，紧接着又和中方连线协商，把中国产品的关税砍到30%，还撤销了一堆制裁。 美国两连退，不是认怂，而是换了打法。 "全面开战"玩不下去了，他们改成"重点突破"：对中方暂且礼让三分，对别国则加倍收拾。这就是最新一季的贸易战战术剧本。 很多人看到中方这波"豁免"，就不禁有点飘。看吧，美国对中国和解了，对其他国家几十上百的关税信函都发出去了，怎么也轮不到咱头上。这种乐观，未 免太早，也太单纯。 美国的算盘，最直接的，是抢钱。 特朗普曾不止一次放话：对所有贸易伙伴起步价就是10%的基准关税，动辄30%、70%往上加。现在美国国内的财政压 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to implement its first consecutive interest rate cut since 2019, reducing the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%, amid economic pressures and low consumer confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The anticipated rate cut will bring the total reduction in the current easing cycle to 75 basis points [1]. - Domestic economic data shows inflation near the lower limit of the 2%-3% target range, with weak household spending and low consumer confidence supporting the need for a loose monetary policy [1]. - The market expects two more rate cuts this year, potentially lowering the cash rate to 3.1%, while many economists believe 3.35% may be a critical point for pausing policy to assess the impact of previous easing measures [1]. Group 2: Global Context and Trade Relations - The RBA's dovish stance aligns with recent rate cuts in Europe, Canada, and the UK, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's plan to maintain current rates until mid-2025 [2]. - The meeting marks a historic moment with both of Australia's core economic institutions led by women, as new Treasury Secretary Jenny Wilkinson participates in rate decisions for the first time [2]. - Australia faces export pressures from rising global protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and slowing demand from China, particularly affecting resource income due to falling iron ore prices [2].

Group 1 - The Trump administration is set to send tariff notification letters to approximately 100 countries, with a deadline for agreements by August 1, after a 90-day tariff suspension period ends on July 9 [1][3] - The tariffs will primarily target smaller countries with which the U.S. has limited trade relations, many of which already have a baseline tariff rate of 10% [3] - The administration is focusing on 18 key trading partners that account for 95% of the U.S. trade deficit, indicating a strategy of "maximum pressure" on these nations to negotiate [3][4] Group 2 - The proposed tariffs could reach as high as 60% or 70% for certain countries, with the first batch of tariff letters already signed by Trump for 12 nations [4] - Despite ongoing negotiations, only three framework agreements have been announced with the UK, China, and Vietnam, with the details remaining sparse [4] - The agreement with Vietnam sets a minimum tariff of 20% on its goods, which is double the rate during the suspension period, raising concerns about the effectiveness of such agreements in reducing tariffs [4][5] Group 3 - Economic analysts warn that the trade war, particularly with China, may lead to increased costs for American consumers, with some retailers planning to raise prices despite opposition from the Trump administration [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a slight increase in wholesale inflation, rising by 0.1% in May, which could be attributed to rising commodity costs [5] - Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers criticized the administration's dismissal of the economic impacts of tariffs, suggesting they could lead to higher inflation and reduced competitiveness for U.S. manufacturers [5]

贝森特称未来72小时将异常忙碌 在特朗普表示将于周一通知大约12个国家他们对美出口将面临的新关税水平后，主要的美国贸易伙伴周 末纷纷加紧努力，力求达成贸易协议或争取额外时间。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周日在节目中说道"接下来的72小时我们会非常忙碌"，他指的是距离政府7 月9日截止日期所剩的时间。 特朗普在美国国庆假期周末对记者表示，他"签署了一些函件，将在周一寄出——初步大约12封"。他拒 绝透露涉及哪些国家，只说这些函件中包含"不同的金额、不同的关税水平以及各自不同的说明。" 贝森特表示，几项大型协议已接近达成，但如果收到函件的国家未能达成协议，从8月1日起，他们对美 出口将面临美国最严厉的关税——在4月2日公布的50多个经济体中，有些税率高达50%。特朗普官员数 周来一直表示，多项协议即将落地，但到目前为止，仅宣布了与英国的有限框架协议、与中国的框架以 及特朗普对与越南协议的简要概述。 特朗普和贝森特的最新表态表明，距离截止日期仅剩三天，谈判仍在持续，协议仍然难以最终敲定。贝 森特表示，华盛顿正对贸易伙伴施加最大压力，并且与欧盟的磋商已取得"非常好的进展"。欧盟是一个 27国组成的集团，约占美国货物贸 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Vietnam has agreed to a trade deal with the United States, which involves Vietnam paying a 20% tariff on all imports while U.S. goods enter Vietnam tax-free, indicating a significant compromise by Vietnam under U.S. pressure [1][3][5] - The agreement symbolizes Vietnam's submission to the high-pressure trade policies of the Trump administration, which may weaken Vietnam's export competitiveness and raise concerns about its economic future [3][5][11] - The U.S. strategy of "first strike then negotiate" is evident, as it aims to force smaller economies like Vietnam to concede, potentially reshaping global supply chains and hindering the free flow of products from China and other regions [5][7] Group 2 - The trade deal may jeopardize the deep industrial complementarity between China and Vietnam, as Chinese companies may reconsider their investments in Vietnam due to increased tariffs and trade policy uncertainties [7][9] - If Vietnam fully accepts the stringent tariff policies, it risks losing technological exchange and innovation opportunities, which could hinder its own technological advancement and industrial transformation [9][11] - The long-term implications of the unequal trade agreement could lead to economic losses for Vietnam, as the 20% tariff may gradually erode its manufacturing competitiveness, forcing companies reliant on Chinese supply chains to either pay high tariffs or shut down [11]