加拿大将根据美国墨西哥加拿大贸易协议（USMCA）对许多美国商品实施关税豁免。美元兑加元跌超 0.5%，报1.3838。加拿大股指维持大约1%的涨幅，持稳于美联储主席鲍威尔讲话后出现的盘中历史最 高位28340.87点附近。加拿大10年期国债收益率回升，几乎完全收复鲍威尔鸽派讲话之后（瞬间）出现 的失地。两年期加债收益率维持超过4个基点的跌幅，交投于2.69%一线，鲍威尔讲话后一度跌穿 2.67%。在美联储降息预期的带动下，道指上涨840点，涨幅扩大至1.87%，标普涨1.55%，纳指涨400点 涨幅1.9%，半导体指数涨3.5%，银行指数涨2.68%；罗素2000指数。 ...

Core Insights - The Bank of Canada survey indicates that consumers plan to reduce spending on travel and goods in the United States [1] Group 1 - The survey reflects a shift in consumer behavior, with a notable decrease in planned expenditures on U.S. travel [1] - Consumers are likely to prioritize domestic spending over international travel, impacting U.S. tourism revenue [1] - The findings suggest potential challenges for U.S. retailers who rely on Canadian consumers for sales [1]

Core Insights - Indonesia is shifting its trade allegiance from China to the United States, signing a significant $34 billion deal that includes key minerals, food procurement, and military equipment [1][3] - The deal includes a drastic reduction of tariffs on over 1,700 U.S. goods, while the U.S. secures critical access to Indonesian nickel resources, which are vital for various industries [3][4] - The U.S. aims to diversify its mineral supply chain, particularly in response to China's export controls on rare earth elements, with Indonesia's nickel seen as a strategic alternative [4][8] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Indonesia's agreement with the U.S. includes a commitment to purchase 1 million tons of wheat annually, a 35% increase from the previous year, and prioritizes U.S. military equipment procurement [3] - The deal represents a significant shift in Indonesia's trade strategy, moving away from reliance on Chinese investments and resources [1][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. is leveraging Indonesia's nickel resources to mitigate the impact of China's rare earth export controls, which are crucial for military applications [4][8] - Other Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam and Cambodia, are also adjusting their trade policies in response to U.S. pressures, indicating a broader regional shift [6][8] Group 3: Strategic Resources - Indonesia holds the largest nickel reserves globally, and the U.S. is keen to access these resources to strengthen its supply chain for electric vehicle batteries and military alloys [4][11] - Despite the U.S. securing access to Indonesian nickel, China's control over the processing chain remains significant, with Chinese companies holding 60% of the nickel processing capacity [11]

Core Viewpoint - Thailand is considering opening its market to more American products, indicating a potential shift in trade relations and opportunities for U.S. exporters [1] Group 1 - The Thai government is exploring the possibility of increasing imports of U.S. goods, which may enhance bilateral trade [1] - This move could lead to a broader range of American products available in Thailand, potentially benefiting U.S. companies looking to expand their market presence [1] - The decision reflects Thailand's ongoing efforts to strengthen economic ties with the United States amid changing global trade dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by the U.S. has led to a shift in global dynamics, with many countries, inspired by China's firm stance, refusing to yield to U.S. pressure [1][2] - The U.S. is facing increasing difficulties in its trade relations, particularly with China, as it relies heavily on Chinese manufacturing and strategic resources like rare earth minerals [1][2] - The European Union has taken a strong position against the U.S., planning to implement counter-tariffs on U.S. goods worth €210 billion and potentially up to €950 billion [4][5] Group 2 - Japan has shifted from a compliant stance to a confrontational one, refusing to accept a 25% tariff on automobiles, indicating a significant change in its trade policy [5][6] - India, previously seen as likely to concede to U.S. demands, is now prepared to resist, with its representatives arriving in the U.S. for negotiations [5][6] - Canada has taken a bold step by imposing a digital services tax on U.S. tech companies, which has escalated tensions with the U.S. [6][8] Group 3 - The U.S. is in a precarious position as it faces a potential trade war with 30 countries, and the expiration of its high tariffs on certain trade partners is approaching [8][9] - Recent data shows that the U.S. trade deficit has widened significantly, and GDP growth has underperformed, putting additional pressure on the Trump administration [9]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the softening labor market in the UK will lead the Bank of England to reverse its restrictive monetary policy, with unemployment expected to rise above the central bank's modal forecast [1] - The latest data shows a decrease of 109,000 jobs in May, marking the most significant decline since May 2020, indicating a concerning trend in the labor market [1] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Bank of England's interest rate will drop from the current 4.25% to 3.5% by the end of this year, and further to 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nomura Oriental International Securities expects Chinese equity assets to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong domestic policy expectations and better liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [2] - The firm highlights that the second half of 2025 will be a crucial period for market direction, with increased volatility anticipated [2] - Stable dividend stocks and specific technology growth sectors are expected to be more suitable for the market environment in the latter half of the year, alongside significant potential in domestic consumption and technology sectors [2] Group 3 - A Reuters survey indicates that over 60% of economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year, with many expecting a rate cut as early as September [3] - Economists forecast U.S. economic growth of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with previous predictions [3] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley reports that the net long position in U.S. Treasury bonds has reached its highest level since May 5, with a 2 percentage point decrease in short positions [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings states that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar has provided some emerging market central banks with the space to accelerate interest rate cuts, alleviating the burden of dollar-denominated debt [5] Group 6 - Fitch also notes that global public finances will continue to face pressure in 2025, particularly in developed markets, due to rising defense spending, interest costs, and demographic trends [6] - The median government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise slightly from 54.1% at the end of 2024 to 54.5% by the end of 2025 [6] Group 7 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart to HKD 302, citing the company's IP diversity and operational capabilities as drivers of sustainable growth, suggesting that its long-term scaling potential has not yet been fully priced in [7] Group 8 - Morgan Stanley believes that long-term Japanese government bonds are attractive to foreign investors, although the timing of any adjustments to the bond issuance scale by the Japanese government remains uncertain [8] Group 9 - Goldman Sachs economists predict that tariffs may raise U.S. commodity prices and overall inflation in the coming months, with core CPI inflation expected to reach 3.5% by the end of the year, up from 2.8% in April [9] Group 10 - CITIC Securities anticipates that investor sentiment will remain stable in June, although there may be a cautious outlook among investors following the extreme performance of small-cap and thematic stocks in April and May [10] - Huaxi Securities suggests that the main market theme remains unclear, advocating for a rotational approach to trading in the technology sector [10] Group 11 - CICC reports that the Chinese consumption market is exhibiting characteristics of "consumption stratification" rather than simple "consumption downgrade," with consumers willing to pay for quality at lower prices and justified premiums [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable macroeconomic foundation for structural highlights in the consumption market [11] Group 12 - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on stablecoin concept stocks with good growth prospects and reasonable valuations, as regulatory developments are expected to boost investor confidence in the stablecoin market [12] - Haitong Securities highlights the importance of flexibility in asset operations amid increased volatility and suggests looking for structural opportunities in sectors like AI technology and military industry [12]