Core Viewpoint - The GPU market is experiencing significant growth, particularly benefiting Nvidia, which has increased its market share to 94% as of the latest report from Jon Peddie Research [2][4]. Market Overview - The global PC-based graphics AIB market is projected to reach 11.6 million units by Q2 2025, reflecting a nearly 30% quarter-over-quarter growth [2]. - Data center GPU shipments also saw a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.7% [2]. Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's dominance in the GPU market continues to strengthen, while AMD's market share has decreased by 2% to 6% [4]. - According to the latest Steam survey, Nvidia holds nearly 75% of the GPU market share, with 7 out of the top 13 performing GPUs in August being from the Blackwell RTX 5000 series [7]. Pricing Trends - There is a notable decline in prices for mid-range and entry-level AIBs, while high-end AIB prices are on the rise, with many retailers facing stock shortages [7][9]. - The overall AIB attach rate for desktop computers increased by 2.3% to 154%, indicating a strong demand for GPUs relative to CPU sales [7][11]. Future Outlook - Jon Peddie Research forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -5.4% for AIBs from 2024 to 2028, with an estimated installed base of 163 million units by the end of the forecast period [9]. - The anticipated release of the RTX 5000 series in early 2025 and the potential launch of Super versions by the end of this year may influence market dynamics [10]. Consumer Behavior - Despite challenges, gamers appear willing to invest in upgrading their systems, contributing to the increased attach rate of GPUs [11]. - Concerns over tariffs and potential import taxes on semiconductor products are influencing consumer purchasing behavior [11].

美联储，重大发布。今日凌晨，美联储发布的经济褐皮书显示，各地区均出现价格上涨，大部分辖区报 告为"温和或轻微"的通胀，大部分辖区整体就业水平几乎没有净变化。其中，关于通胀的提及次数接近 四年来的低点。美联储新主席热门人选主张"多次降息"。美联储理事沃勒表示，美联储应在本月开始降 息，预计在未来3—6个月内，可能会看到多次降息。 哈佛"硬刚"特朗普迎阶段性胜利。当地时间9月3日，美国法官裁定特朗普政府冻结哈佛大学超过20亿美 元联邦资助的行为系非法，并要求政府必须恢复这笔资金。今年4月，特朗普政府以哈佛大学未充分解 决校园反犹太主义问题为由，削减其联邦资助。数月以来，特朗普政府和哈佛大学一直在就恢复研究经 费进行谈判。 美股方面，道指跌0.05%，标普500指数涨0.51%，纳指涨1.02%。 大型科技股多数走高，美法官裁决引谷歌苹果暴涨，周三谷歌涨超9%，创4月9日以来最佳单日表现， 股价创纪录新高，市值单日增加2300亿美元（约合人民币1.6万亿元），总市值达2.79万亿美元；苹果收 涨3.8%，创近一个月来最大涨幅；特斯拉涨1.44%。比特币矿商American Bitcoin借壳上市首日涨 16.52% ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicates that from mid-July to the end of August, all Federal Reserve districts experienced price increases related to tariffs [1] - Many districts reported significant impacts of tariffs on input prices, with increases noted in insurance, utilities, and technology services [1] - Companies have largely passed on rising costs to customers, and businesses expect prices to continue rising in the coming months [1] Group 2 - Due to increased economic uncertainty and higher tariff rates, many households' wage growth has not kept pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending across all Federal Reserve districts [1] - The overall employment level remained largely unchanged in 11 Federal Reserve districts, with one district experiencing a slight decline in employment [1] - Seven districts reported reluctance among businesses to hire due to weakened demand or increased uncertainty, while two districts noted an increase in layoffs [1] Group 3 - The U.S. government has been imposing higher tariffs on trade partners, with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 41% announced on July 31 [2] - The trade-weighted average tariff rate for all products imported into the U.S. rose significantly to 20.11% as of August 7, compared to just 2.44% at the beginning of the year [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicates that price increases related to tariffs have been observed across all Federal Reserve districts from mid-July to the end of August [1] - The average trade-weighted tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on all products has significantly increased to 20.11% as of August 7, compared to 2.44% at the beginning of the year [2] Group 1: Economic Impact - The report highlights that many Federal Reserve districts reported noticeable impacts of tariffs on input prices, with increases in insurance, utilities, and technology service prices [1] - Companies have been passing on the increased costs to customers, and there are widespread expectations among businesses for continued price increases in the coming months [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Labor Market - Due to rising economic uncertainty and increased tariff rates, wage growth for many households has not kept pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending across all Federal Reserve districts [1] - The overall employment level has remained largely unchanged in 11 Federal Reserve districts, with one district experiencing a slight decline in employment levels [1]

"虽然价格稳定仍是首要任务，劳动力市场放缓的程度足以支撑在今年晚些时候实施一次适度的政策宽 松。"博斯蒂克表示，并补充称如果数据显著恶化，他不排除提前采取行动。 他在接受采访时被问及9月是否可能降息时表示，"我会保持开放态度"，并将密切关注薪资增长、非农 就业人数等指标。"如果数据表明劳动力市场正在快速且明显走弱，这将是非常重要的信息，会影响我 对政策的判断。" 博斯蒂克同时提醒，关税对通胀的冲击可能具有持久性。"我相信关税对消费者价格的影响不会很快消 退，而且其全部效应将在未来数月才会完全显现。"他强调，美联储不能自满，必须防止通胀预期失 控，避免新一轮通胀爆发。 在美联储9月政策会议临近之际，多位官员就通胀、关税及利率前景发表看法，透露出政策内部的分歧 与不确定性。 智通财经APP获悉，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里周四表示，美国总统特朗普推动的关税措施正在推 高商品通胀，令美联储实现2%通胀目标的道路更加复杂。他在明尼苏达州女性经济圆桌会议上表示， 尽管劳动力市场正显示出降温迹象，整体经济仍有望实现"软着陆"，但当前通胀水平依然"过高"。 卡什卡里指出，住房等领域的价格增长正在放缓，但并不意味着房价或租金 ...

Economic Activity - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates that overall economic activity in the U.S. has remained nearly unchanged over the past six weeks, with most regions reporting "flat or slight declines" [1] - Out of the 12 Federal Reserve districts, 11 reported no significant changes in economic activity, while one district experienced a slight decline [1] - Consumer spending is reported to be "flat or declining," primarily due to wage growth lagging behind rising prices, putting more pressure on household budgets [1] Inflation and Costs - All regions reported varying degrees of price increases, with 10 districts describing inflation as "moderate or modest," while two districts reported "strong input cost growth" [1] - Tariffs have led to price increases across nearly all regions, particularly in industries heavily reliant on imports, with businesses passing on costs through price hikes [2] - A local coffee roaster in New York noted that tariffs on Brazilian coffee and other raw materials have impacted the entire supply chain [2] Employment Market - The employment levels across 11 districts were reported to be "almost unchanged," with only one district noting a slight decline [2] - There is a noticeable reduction in immigrant labor, particularly in the construction sectors of New York, Richmond, St. Louis, and San Francisco, exacerbated by stricter immigration policies [2] - While white-collar candidates prefer remote or hybrid work, there is less selectivity in accepting job offers, whereas physical labor positions remain easier to fill despite an overall contraction in job numbers [2] Consumer Behavior - Rising living costs have increased demand for basic needs among low-income groups, affecting spending patterns [1] - Due to slow wage growth, consumer purchasing power has declined, leading to more cautious spending behavior [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Beige Book reflects a weak economic situation, increasing market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - Analysts suggest that if the August non-farm payroll report is poor, it will almost "lock in" the decision for a rate cut in September [3] - A potential 25 basis point cut is anticipated as a moderate measure to balance inflation and employment concerns [3]

Group 1 - The discussion revolves around the impact of tariffs on the industry, indicating that there has been recent noise regarding tariffs which could potentially affect the market [2][4] - The company is actively monitoring the situation and engaging with trade associations to stay informed about tariff developments, although they do not have any unique insights beyond what is publicly available [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that tariffs have led to an increase in goods inflation [1] Group 2 - The statement is attributed to Federal Reserve official Kashkari, indicating a direct link between tariffs and inflationary pressures in the economy [1]

美联储官员穆萨勒姆：需要更多数据来确定关税对通胀的影响。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The current interest rate level is deemed suitable for the economic environment, aligning with a fully employed labor market and core inflation rates approximately one percentage point above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] - A balanced approach in policy-making is emphasized, avoiding excessive bias towards either supporting the labor market or combating inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates this year to observe the impact of policy changes, including tariffs, on inflation [1] Group 2 - The slowdown in corporate hiring is attributed to both reduced demand and decreased labor supply due to immigration restrictions [2] - Economic growth has slowed this year, leading to uncertainty in policies that cause businesses and households to cut spending [2] - Inflation remains closer to 3% rather than the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with tariffs expected to gradually affect the economy over the next two to three quarters [2]