Core Insights - International long-term capital interest in Chinese assets is rising despite U.S. tariff policies, with significant demand for Hong Kong IPOs, particularly in consumer and technology sectors [1][4][6] Group 1: International Capital and IPO Market - Goldman Sachs has been a leader in overseas stock capital market financing for Chinese issuers since 2025, holding a market share of 21.7% [1] - The Hong Kong IPO market has shown remarkable performance, with 2024 financing reaching $11.3 billion, a 92% increase from $5.9 billion in 2023, and an expected $13 billion in the first half of 2025 [3][6] - The participation of international long-term investors in IPOs has significantly increased, with some projects seeing over 20 international funds involved, compared to 3-5 in previous years [6] Group 2: Market Recovery and Economic Factors - The Hong Kong market has experienced a three-phase performance in 2024, including a strong recovery in Q1 with a 17% rise in the Hang Seng Index, followed by a brief downturn in April, and a rebound in May and June, leading to a cumulative increase of 22% for the year [3][4] - The average return for IPOs in Hong Kong in 2025 is projected to be 37%, with 70% of projects achieving positive returns, compared to only 40% in 2024 [8] - The recovery of the market is attributed to favorable Chinese economic policies, technological advancements, and a high willingness of companies to list in Hong Kong, with 44 A-share companies already announced for listing [7][8] Group 3: Global Capital Rebalancing - The return of international capital to Hong Kong is part of a broader trend of global asset rebalancing, with investors diversifying away from the U.S. due to perceived overvaluation of the dollar [7] - The daily trading volume in the Hong Kong market has increased from approximately HKD 100 billion in 2024 to between HKD 200 billion and 300 billion in 2025, with 70% of this volume attributed to international funds [6][7] - Despite short-term fluctuations due to trade tensions, the successful issuance of large projects post-tariff adjustments indicates strong long-term confidence in the Chinese market [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-6-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1244元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1202元/吨，基差为42元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存162.7万吨，较前一周增加0.17%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 12 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

若债务违约真的发生，美国的信用体系将遭遇重创，美元在全球供应链中的地位可能动摇。美元作为全球主要结算货币，依赖美国主权信用。一 旦违约，全球股市可能暴跌，避险资产如黄金和美债的收益率倒挂将大幅攀升，全球经济复苏也可能因此遭遇重大冲击。尽管CBO推迟了"X 日"的预测，问题的本质并未得到有效解决。市场对"美式债务游戏"的信任已经逐渐消耗，长期来看，这可能加速全球去美元化进程。 美国债务违约风险的"X日"临近，美联储的最新发声引发市场关注。与此同时，亚洲散户纷纷趁机低买美股，短期获利后迅速撤离。对于这一局 面，特朗普政府仍在推动政策以扩大财政赤字，并对解决美国债务危机做出一系列大胆尝试。 2025年初，美国债务上限重新生效。目前，美国财政部通过采取"非常规措施"来维持财政运转，这些措施包括临时会计操作等，避免了立即触发 债务违约。美国历史上已进行过103次债务上限的提升，然而此次违约风险日益严峻。美国国会预算办公室（CBO）预测，如果债务上限未能如 期提高，特朗普政府可能会在2025年8月中旬耗尽这些"非常规措施"，最迟会在9月底面临"X日"——即无法再偿还债务，进入违约状态。 虽然该预测比CBO三月的预期有所推 ...

最近，"苏超"热度不断攀升。人红是非多，赛事也是如此。近日，网上有人发帖称：足协说要派人指导 运营，江苏足协直接搬出"这是文旅项目"当挡箭牌，明摆着不买账。 不过，这明显是谣言。江苏台记者向江苏有关部门核实此事，对方回复：没有的事，假的。中国足协也 表示，截至目前，从未提出过要去视察、指导"苏超"。 谣言背后往往有着微妙的社会心态。这个谣言得以传播，反映了一种担心，即行政之手过度介入，会 使"苏超"蓬勃的民间活力在条框束缚中枯萎。客观地说，这个心态不光针对中国足协、足球赛事，也针 对各行各业，是涉及各个部门的一种普遍现象。 这个担心是有道理的，它本质上反映了这样一个问题：如何在尊重群众自发性与行政规范之间达成平 衡，合理兼顾规范与发展、安全与自由？ 与此同时，仍然需要强调的是，任何事情都不可能穷尽风险，反过来说，组织者、个体、社会也要有自 己承担风险的意识，不能没出事的时候要求"不管"；出了事又一定要找个替罪羊来负责。 前段时间，云南哀牢山景区扩大了禁入范围，秦岭鳌太线多年前就被禁止徒步穿越，归根到底，这些高 度冒险的活动是无法完全避免风险的，风险也正是吸引人的因素。如果冒险的人不能自担风险，或者社 会不认为 ...

但莫迪也不是吃素的。降低关税的让步看似软弱，实则藏着三招后手：第一，用市场换技术，盯着美国 半导体和新能源产业；第二，加速和欧盟签自贸协定，分散风险；第三，借俄罗斯石油省下的钱猛 搞"印度制造"。这套"太极打法"比硬刚更狠——既然你美国谈生意不讲感情，那印度也犯不着当冤大 头。 看看这二十年美印关系就像过山车。克林顿时期靠"民主价值观"勾肩搭背，小布什送上核协议大礼包， 奥巴马更是拉着印度搞"亚太再平衡"。 但到了特朗普时代，画风突变——什么民主人权全是虚的，防务订单和反华站队才是硬通货。最讽刺的 是，美国自己每年从印度捞走800多亿美元（教育、专利费、军火），却反咬印度"贸易掠夺"，这双标 玩得比宝莱坞剧情还狗血！ 现在最要命的是战略信任崩塌。印度顶着西方压力买俄罗斯打折油，本想着美国能睁只眼闭只眼，结果 等来的是关税大棒。等莫迪发动"辛杜尔行动"跨境反恐，特朗普反倒跳出来当"和事佬"，把印度和恐怖 主义温床巴基斯坦强行划等号。 这套操作彻底暴露了美国的算盘：印度不过是遏制中国的工具人，用得着时喊声"伙伴"，用不着时直接 当韭菜割。（典型案例：2022年印度拒绝对俄制裁反遭美施压） 特朗普刚对印度商品全面加 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite efforts by the Trump administration to increase U.S. oil production, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast, predicting a decline in oil production by 2026 compared to 2025, marking the first downward adjustment since 2021 [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Oil Production Forecast - The EIA projects that U.S. oil production will average 13.42 million barrels per day in 2023, decreasing to 13.37 million barrels per day by 2026 [1][2]. - The EIA's previous forecast had anticipated a record high for 2026, indicating a significant shift in expectations [1]. - The decline in production is attributed to lower oil prices leading to reduced drilling activities, with the number of active drilling rigs falling to 442, the lowest level since October 2021 [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors Impacting Production - The ongoing low prices of WTI crude oil have pushed some shale oil producers below their breakeven points, leading to a decrease in capital expenditures and drilling investments [2][5]. - Producers require an oil price of approximately $65 per barrel to achieve profitability, while production costs for countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia are significantly lower [5]. - The combination of high inflation increasing drilling costs and the depletion of high-quality oil fields further complicates the production landscape for U.S. producers [1][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The EIA anticipates that global oil production will outpace demand growth, leading to increased global oil inventories and downward pressure on prices [6]. - The projected average prices for WTI crude oil are $62.33 per barrel in 2024 and $55.58 per barrel in 2025, reflecting a bearish outlook [6]. - Despite the challenges faced by U.S. producers, global oil supply is expected to continue growing, potentially leading to a supply surplus [6][7]. Group 4: Strategic Contradictions - The Trump administration's energy strategy has been criticized for its inherent contradictions, as it seeks to boost production while also aiming for lower oil prices [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the desire for both high production and low prices is unrealistic, indicating a fundamental conflict in the administration's approach to energy policy [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones emphasizes that balancing the budget will require significant tax increases on the wealthy [1] Group 1 - The need for increased taxes on the wealthy is highlighted as a necessary measure for budget balance [1] - Paul Tudor Jones suggests that the current fiscal situation necessitates a reevaluation of tax policies targeting high-income individuals [1] - The statement reflects broader concerns regarding fiscal sustainability and income inequality in the economy [1]

Core Insights - 51Talk reported a significant increase in revenue and cash income for Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching $18.2 million, a year-on-year growth of 93.1% [1] - The company experienced a net cash income of $21.9 million, reflecting a 74.6% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Despite the growth, 51Talk reported a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $1.5 million, although this loss has narrowed significantly [2] Financial Performance - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was $14 million, marking a 91.8% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 77.0% [1] - The number of active students increased to 81,100, representing a growth of 75.5% year-on-year [1] - Total billings, which include sales of course packages and services after refunds, amounted to $21.9 million, up 4.6% from the previous year [1] Operational Challenges - Sales and marketing expenses rose to $11.1 million, a 42.7% increase year-on-year, attributed to the hiring of more sales and marketing personnel and increased marketing activities [1] - The company faces challenges related to customer complaints, ranking sixth in the top nine complaints in the digital education sector according to a report [2] - Balancing business expansion with service quality is identified as a critical factor for the company's sustainable development in the future [3]

以下文章来源于六里投研 ，作者投资报 六里投研 . 专注基金投资20年，对话过几乎所有顶级投资人。来一起探索投资世界，提升你的商业洞察力。 来源 | 六里投研 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 今天（6月11日），在一场香港投资峰会上，知名经济学家洪灏就中美关系、贸易战、货币问题以及经济再平衡等 话题分享了他的最新观点。 洪灏赞同中美关系"像一对夫妻在离婚过程中争吵"， 双方在未来将再无瓜葛，但与此同时，他们仍然必须承受后 果，并且要讨论如何分割财产。 而对于贸易战，洪灏提出，中国相比以前，这次准备得更为充分， 同时，考虑到这场贸易战的进程，以及它是如何 开始的，它实际上以某种方式将中国人民团结在了一起。如果你身在中国大陆，你真的能感受到这种气氛，中国人 民以"吃苦"而闻名，在中国文化中，"吃苦"意味着，你可以忍受巨大的艰辛很长一段时间。 洪灏认为，中国经济更多的是投资驱动，而不是消费驱动。要达到经济再平衡，仅靠中国自身的力量是无法成功 的，过去20年都没有取得成功。 因此，我们必须改变思维方式。 经济再平衡应该是一个全球再平衡的过程，中美需共同努力。 投资报（liulishidian）精译了洪灏分享的 ...