Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal is expected to be in a short - term range - bound and slightly bullish trend, influenced by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed, the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the trend of soybean meal. The future trend depends on policies and the movement of soybean meal [8][42][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. The annual rapeseed production in Canada has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased due to lower output in the EU and Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict may support commodity prices [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills. Bearish factors: The upcoming listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed Arrival**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in June was lower than expected, and the import cost was in a slightly bullish and volatile trend [18]. - **Oil Mill Operation and Inventory**: The rapeseed inventory at oil mills continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory slightly decreased to a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume at oil mills slightly decreased [21][23]. - **Rapeseed Meal Transaction**: Not provided in the given content - **Aquaculture**: The prices of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the prices of shrimps and shellfish remained stable. China's aquatic product and fish production, shellfish and shrimp - crab production, and OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports are presented, but no specific analysis is given [25][27][29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [15][17]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal decreased, but capital inflows were observed [8]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is in a short - term range - bound and slightly bullish trend. The low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes support the price, but the absence of additional tariffs on rapeseed imports limits the upside potential [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2620, and the basis is - 59, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.55 tons, a 18.42% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.9 tons and a 40.38% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.6 tons, which is bullish [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. The KDJ indicator is oscillating and falling from a high level, and the MACD is oscillating upward with a narrowing red energy bar. In general, the short - term trend is slightly bullish, but the future trend depends on policies and the movement of soybean meal [42]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, the futures are expected to be slightly bullish. For the RM2509 contract, it is recommended to trade within the range above 2600 or wait and see. For options, sell slightly out - of - the - money put options on the 09 contract [12]. 7. Next Week's Focus Points - The most important factors are the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China. Secondary factors include domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the inventory of rapeseed meal at domestic oil mills and downstream procurement. Other factors include macro - economy and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil production is expected to increase month - on - month, with seasonal production growth approaching, increasing supply expectations. Although domestic port inventories are currently low, as origin quotes weaken, future purchases are emerging. With the current inverted soybean - palm oil price spread, there is no incremental consumption, and inventory is expected to grow, requiring a further narrowing of the spread to stimulate consumption [3]. - For soybean oil, as purchased ships arrive at ports, supply pressure is increasing, and oil mill压榨 is expected to rise. With no incremental consumption to absorb the supply, inventory is expected to enter a build - up cycle. Given the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the soybean - palm oil price spread may repair in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, the expected improvement in China - Canada relations has reduced the premium in the market's policy - related trading. The current supply is at a peak, but new supply will be limited, and the marginal inventory reduction is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. High inventory is suppressing prices, but policy uncertainty provides support for far - month prices [3]. - For imported soybeans, Brazilian premiums are firm, and the domestic market has strengthened with the international market. The estimated arrivals are 11 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is abundant, and the fourth - quarter supply depends on China - US negotiations [15]. - In the domestic soybean meal market, prices have strengthened with the international market due to China - US negotiation expectations. However, the concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will put pressure on prices. Downstream demand is weak, and the basis remains weak [15]. - In the rapeseed meal market, there is still supply pressure in June, and downstream demand is below expectations. The inventory reduction is difficult. The far - month supply has some gaps, but demand is limited. The market is weak, and future trends depend on China - Canada trade relations [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price Spreads - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 122 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 4 yuan/ton; P 5 - 9 is - 152 yuan/ton with a daily change of 16 yuan/ton; P 9 - 1 is 30 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 12 yuan/ton [4]. - Soybean - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 432 yuan/ton with a daily change of 30 yuan/ton; Y - P 05 is - 650 yuan/ton with a daily change of 20 yuan/ton; Y - P 09 is - 386 yuan/ton with a daily change of 48 yuan/ton [4]. - Other spreads: Y/M and OI/RM also have corresponding price and change data [4]. 3.2. Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Palm oil futures prices: Palm oil 01 is 8504 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%; Palm oil 05 is 8382 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%; Palm oil 09 is 8536 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.02% [6]. - Spot and related prices: BMD palm oil主力 is 4143 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.95%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8730 yuan/ton with a decline of 30 yuan/ton; the basis is 222 yuan/ton with a decline of 30 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3. Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Soybean oil futures prices: Soybean oil 01 is 8082 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.23%; Soybean oil 05 is 7736 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.04%; Soybean oil 09 is 8156 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.32% [12]. - Spot and related prices: CBOT soybean oil主力 is 54.62 cents/pound with a decline of 0.13%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8300 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the basis is 98 yuan/ton with a decline of 18 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4. Oilseed Futures Prices - Soybean meal futures prices: Soybean meal 01 is 3097 with a decline of 7 and a decline rate of 0.23%; Soybean meal 05 is 2768 with a decline of 1 and a decline rate of 0.04%; Soybean meal 09 is 3067 with a decline of 10 and a decline rate of 0.32% [16]. - Rapeseed meal futures prices: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2395 with a decline of 33 and a decline rate of 1.36%; Rapeseed meal 05 is 2389 with a decline of 21 and a decline rate of 0.87%; Rapeseed meal 09 is 2679 with a decline of 15 and a decline rate of 0.56% [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Due to the influence of US biodiesel news, soybean oil and palm oil are considered bullish in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is to be put under temporary observation due to the expected easing of China - Canada relations [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Spot Price Data - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8870, 8820, and 8800 respectively, with price changes of - 30, - 80, and 0 compared to June 18 [1] - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8400, and 8360 respectively, with price changes of 70, 50, and 70 compared to June 18 [1] - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9900, 9920, and 10100 respectively, with price changes of 0, 0, and 20 compared to June 18 [1] 2. Futures Data - **Spread between Main Contracts**: On June 19, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 386, up 48 from June 18; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1539, down 80 from June 18 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, 2025, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 540, 17552, and 100 respectively, with no change compared to June 18 [1] 3. Policy and Trade Data - **US Biodiesel Policy**: EPA's expected biomass diesel BBD blending obligations for 2026 - 2027 are 56.1 and 58.6 billion gallons respectively, exceeding the previous market expectation of 46.5 - 52.5 billion gallons [1] - **Indian Imports**: In May, India's sunflower oil, soybean oil, and palm oil imports were 183555 tons, 398585 tons, and 592888 tons respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.9%, 10.42%, and 84.44%; the total vegetable oil imports were 1187068 tons, a 33.15% month - on - month increase [1] 4. Production and Inventory Data - **MPOB May Data**: Palm oil production was 1.7716 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 67900 tons, an 18.32% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; consumption was 327600 tons, a 3.36% month - on - month decrease; and the ending inventory was 1.9902 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase [1] - **June High - frequency Data**: From June 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4%, and exports increased by 26.3% (ITS data) or 17.77% (Amspec data) compared to the same period last month [1] - **Argentine Soybean Production**: As of June 11, the 24/25 soybean harvest progress in Argentina was 93.2%, 2.8 percentage points behind the same period last year [2] - **US Soybean Production**: As of June 8, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [2] 5. Other Factors - **Weather**: Future two - week precipitation for US soybeans is moderately high, and Malaysia's precipitation is expected to be neutral [1][2] - **Trade Relations**: There is an expectation of easing China - Canada trade relations [2] - **Domestic Supply**: In the short - term, the low rapeseed inventory makes the supply of rapeseed oil tight, but the supply may be supplemented in the far - month due to the expected easing of trade relations [2]

Group 1: Cotton Market - Cotton futures prices are experiencing fluctuations as temperatures in Xinjiang rise, with most cotton fields entering the flowering stage, indicating good growth conditions [1] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding US-China tariff policies is causing market volatility, while the downstream textile industry is in a traditional consumption lull, leading to reduced orders and slight inventory accumulation [1] - Cotton prices may face downward pressure in the short term due to demand seasonality, with a support level to watch around 13,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal and Oil Market - Soybean meal prices are rising, but there are still supply pressures, and inventory depletion may be challenging due to a lack of significant increases in aquaculture production [1] - Soybean oil prices are also increasing, supported by strong bottom levels despite a persistent oversupply situation, influenced by international relations and overall oil market trends [1] Group 3: Sugar Market - Sugar futures prices are declining, with Brazil's exports showing a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and India's projected sugar production for the 2025/2026 season estimated at 35 million tons [2] - In Guangxi, sugar sales have increased by 537,100 tons year-on-year, with a sales rate of 71.85%, indicating a positive trend in local sugar consumption [2] - Short-term sugar prices in Zhengzhou are expected to follow external market fluctuations, with a key support level at 5,600 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Peanut Market - Peanut prices are declining due to weak spot market transactions, with new season prices stabilizing around 4.7 yuan per jin [2] - A significant reduction in import volumes is pushing up imported peanut prices, while peanut oil prices remain stable, indicating a mixed market response [2] Group 5: Overall Market Trends - The Yisheng Agricultural Futures Index showed a rebound last week, closing at 1,155.54 points, ending the previous week's downward trend [3] - The market is expected to continue experiencing wide fluctuations, with the index likely to maintain a volatile operating pattern in the near future [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the fast planting progress and good excellent rate of US soybeans continue to constrain the US soybean market, but the positive sentiment from the Sino - US framework agreement benefits domestic meal prices through cost transmission. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans increases oil - mill operating rates, suppressing the meal market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts rapeseed meal demand, and the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed and the "weather - dominated" growth stage are factors to watch. However, the expected easing of Sino - Canadian trade relations may increase supply and drag down prices. Short - term participation is recommended for rapeseed meal futures [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the seasonal production increase in palm oil producing areas and high domestic oil - mill inventory pressure constrain prices. The expected easing of Sino - Canadian trade relations may increase supply. But the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides support. Rapeseed oil trends stronger than soybean and palm oil, and short - term participation is recommended while paying attention to Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9178 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2674 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 695.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5053 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) is 148 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; rapeseed meal (9 - 1) is 311 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 284550 lots, down 2578 lots; rapeseed meal is 573176 lots, up 25259 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 37089 lots, up 6130 lots; rapeseed meal is 20123 lots, up 16817 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 0, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 26315, down 96 [2]. 2. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8020 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 8350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 9353.75 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Import cost price: Imported rapeseed is 5274.5 yuan/ton, up 37.95 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 201 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; rapeseed meal main - contract basis is - 104 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Total rapeseed imports are 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports are 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; rapeseed meal imports are 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Oil - mill inventory: Total rapeseed inventory is 25 million tons, unchanged; coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 14.3 million tons, down 0.65 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.9 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory is 61.2 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 38.18 million tons, down 0.86 million tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 7.4 million tons, unchanged; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 25.2 million tons, up 1.5 million tons [2]. - Operating rates: Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate is 19.19%, down 4.53 percentage points [2]. - Pressing profit: Imported rapeseed disk pressing profit is 36 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly value is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production: The monthly value is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Catering revenue: The monthly value is 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. 5. Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option is 21.79%, down 0.07 percentage points; at - the - money put option is 21.81%, down 0.05 percentage points; rapeseed oil at - the - money call option is 14.7%, down 0.1 percentage points; at - the - money put option is 14.69%, down 0.11 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: 20 - day rapeseed meal is 16.79%, up 0.31 percentage points; 60 - day rapeseed meal is 21.44%, down 0.03 percentage points; 20 - day rapeseed oil is 11.31%, down 0.27 percentage points; 60 - day rapeseed oil is 13.47%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. 6. Industry News - Canadian rapeseed futures on the ICE closed higher on Wednesday, following the upward trends of Chicago soybean oil and international crude oil futures. The 7 - month contract rose 5.10 Canadian dollars to 714.30 Canadian dollars/ton; the 11 - month contract rose 2.70 Canadian dollars to 693.90 Canadian dollars/ton; the 1 - month contract rose 2.90 Canadian dollars to 701.30 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, the excellent rate of US soybeans was 68% as expected [2]. 7. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from My Agricultural Network on Monday, and the trends of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

6月11日，郑商所菜油期货仓单1085张，环比上个交易日持平。 分析观点： 瑞达期货（002961）研报：油厂库存压力持续偏高，继续牵制市场价格。且中加贸易关系缓和的预期增 强，增添后期供应压力。不过，加菜籽价格相对坚挺，成本传到下，给国内菜油市场价格带来支撑。盘 面来看，受加菜籽支撑，菜油走势较豆棕偏强，短线参与为主，关注中加贸易关系变化。 期货市场上看，6月12日收盘，菜籽油期货主力合约报9178.00元/吨，涨幅0.09%，最高触及9215.00元/ 吨，最低下探9140.00元/吨，日内成交量达278856手。 【市场资讯】 6月12日，加拿大菜油(7月船期)1050美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；加拿大菜油(9月船期)1030美元/ 吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 数据显示，6月11日全国进口四级菜油均价现货价格报价9353.75元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（9149.00 元/吨）升水204.75元/吨。 （6月12日）今日全国菜籽油价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产地 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 等 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-11 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 9149 141 | -39 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) -1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 2638 289 | 9 | | 期货市场 | | | | | 16 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 287128 | -1958 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 547917 | -4152 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 30959 | -12008 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | 3306 | 15019 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 0 692.8 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9188 | 6 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2629 | 15 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 142 289086 | 1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -2291 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 273 552069 | 10 10019 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 42967 | 5349 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -11713 | 994 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 0 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 26649 | -415 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 694.6 | 2.3 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5066 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall oil and fat sector showed a volatile trend with differentiation. Affected by the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil weakened significantly. Soybean oil was more obviously boosted by the improved sentiment in China - US trade but remained in a volatile range. For palm oil, both production and inventory in the producing areas are expected to increase. Export demand has improved compared to the previous period, supporting prices to some extent. The palm oil market saw frequent short - term capital inflows and outflows, with gradually narrowing fluctuations, and the weekly line closed slightly higher [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the interest rate cut time may be postponed. Attention should be paid to this week's China - US economic and trade meeting. The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices rose with fluctuations. Fundamentally, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report and the follow - up negotiation progress of China - Canada trade. In general, palm oil may continue to fluctuate in the short term [4][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 39 to close at 3,917 ringgit/ton, a 1.01% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 50 to close at 8,110 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 100 to close at 7,738 yuan/ton, a 1.31% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 208 to close at 9,140 yuan/ton, a 2.23% decrease; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.53 to close at 47.43 cents/pound, a 1.13% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 18.7 to close at 602.3 Canadian dollars/ton, a 2.63% decrease [4][7]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 0.35% decrease; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao increased by 60 yuan/ton to 7,930 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 9,420 yuan/ton, a 1.46% decrease [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - MPOB monthly report preview: Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April; exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 17.9% increase from April [8]. - According to SPPOMA data, in May 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 1.90%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.30%, and palm oil production increased by 3.53%. MPOA data shows that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from May 1 - 31 increased by 3.07%. UOB data shows that as of May 25, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 1 - 5% [8]. - Shipping survey agency SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 are expected to be 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the same period last month. AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the same period last month [9]. - India's edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons. Among them, sunflower oil imports increased by 2% to 184,000 tons, soybean oil imports increased by 10% to 398,000 tons, and palm oil imports soared by 87% to 600,000 tons [9]. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 14,750 tons, and that of palm oil was 903 tons [11]. Industry News - A commodity research institution predicts that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season will be 19 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.5 - 19.5 million tons. Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 43.8 - 53.8 million tons. Thailand's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 3.59 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 3.09 - 4.09 million tons [12][13]. - Global palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season are expected to be 41.6 million tons, a 1% decrease from last month's estimate and a 0.5% decrease from the 2023/24 season, mainly due to the downward adjustment of India's import estimate [13]. - Indonesia exported 6.41 million tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to April this year, a 5.37% decrease from the same period last year. However, due to rising prices, the export value of palm oil in the first four months reached $7.05 billion, a 20% increase from the same period last year [14]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the inventory and production trends of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD, My Agri - data, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][19].

「2025.06.06」 瑞达期货研究院 菜籽类市场周报 中加缓和预期增强 拖累菜油震荡收跌 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡收跌，主力09合约收盘价9140元/吨，较前一周-208元/吨。 Ø 短期市场仍聚焦于加菜籽旧作库存偏紧的现实，且现阶段加菜籽生长进入"天气主导"阶段。关注后 期天气状况。其它方面，棕榈油产地步入季节性增产季，产出压力增加。MPOB报告前调查显示， 5月棕榈油库存预计为201万吨，较4月增长7.74%，创去年9月以来的最高水平。国内方面，油厂 库存压力持续偏高，继续牵制市场价格。且中加贸易关系缓和的预期增强，增添后期供应压力。 不过，加菜籽价格相对坚挺，成本传到下，给国内菜油市场价格带来支撑。盘面来看，本周菜油 震荡走低，关注中加贸易关系变化。 Ø 策略建议：短线参与为主。 ...