Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2340 - 2400. It is affected by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the pending final result of the anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the spot demand in the off - season and low inventory, it will maintain a short - term oscillating pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt No information provided. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply tightening and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest phase, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and a 75.8% import deposit was imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canada's output higher than expected. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on global rapeseed production is relatively offset, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand has entered the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: The rapeseed meal futures have rebounded, and the spot price has fluctuated accordingly, with a relatively high premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has remained low [18][20]. - **Supply - related**: Imported rapeseed arrivals increased slightly in December, and the import cost was affected by tariff expectations. Oil mill rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory remained low, and the rapeseed crushing volume remained zero [23][25][27]. - **Demand - related**: Aquaculture fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint and Strategy - **Fundamental Analysis**: The rapeseed meal market has returned to oscillation, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the market. It is affected by soybean meal in the short term and maintains an oscillating pattern [9]. - **Basis Analysis**: The spot price is 2560, and the basis is 173, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons, unchanged from last week and down 100% year - on - year, which is bullish [9]. - **Price Trend Analysis**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward, which is bullish [9]. - **Position Analysis**: The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - **Outlook**: Affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the off - season of domestic supply and demand, it will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [9].

Report Summary Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to rapeseed meal, indicating a short - term oscillatory pattern [8]. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal has rebounded with low - level buying support and is affected by the outcome of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed. With the domestic rapeseed meal entering the off - season of supply and demand, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The key factors include the impact of soybean meal, the outcome of the Canada - China trade negotiation, and the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [8]. Summary by Section 1. Weekly Prompt - The current situation of rapeseed meal is neutral. The basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures. The inventory is bullish with zero tons and a 100% year - on - year decrease. The price on the disk is bullish as it is above the 20 - day moving average and rising. The main positions are bullish with an increase in long positions and capital inflow. Overall, it is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [8]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season, leading to a tightening supply expectation in the spot market and a decrease in demand. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has been initially ruled in favor, and import margins are being levied. Global rapeseed production has increased, but the Canada - China trade issue has affected the short - term supply in China [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the initial anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, zero rapeseed meal inventory, and the increase in main long positions. Bearish factors are the off - season of domestic aquaculture and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [8][11]. 4. Fundamental Data - The rapeseed supply - demand balance shows changes in harvest area, production, and inventory over the years. The rapeseed meal supply - demand balance also shows trends in production, demand, and inventory. In December, the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased slightly, and the oil mill's rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels. Aquatic product prices are mixed, with fish prices slightly falling and shrimp and shellfish prices stable [16][18][19]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and capital has flowed in [8]. 6. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has rebounded due to low - level buying. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show short - term rebounds, but the upward space is limited. The mid - term is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, and the future trend depends on policies and the movement of soybean meal [42]. 7. Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the growth and harvest weather in South American soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports, and China's imports and oil mill operations. Secondary factors include domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, as well as oil mill rapeseed meal inventory and downstream procurement. Macro factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict are also to be considered [45].

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2360. It is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation, and the market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the spot demand in the off - season and low inventory supporting the market, and uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, it will maintain a short - term range - bound pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2300 and 2360. The market is neutral due to factors such as soybean meal influence, anti - dumping ruling uncertainty, off - season demand, and low inventory [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but China - Canada trade issues may reduce short - term exports and domestic supply. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and a 75.8% import deposit was imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offsetting each other. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which may support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and no pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal inventory. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is in the off - season, and there is a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case. The main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Base difference**: The spot price is 2510, with a basis of 170, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% from last week's 1.8 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 2.2 tons last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [9]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position has changed from short to long, with capital inflows, which is bullish [9]. 3.6 Other Data - **Trading data**: From December 10th to 18th, the average trading price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [13]. - **Price summary**: From December 10th to 18th, rapeseed meal futures prices (near - month 2601 and main 2605) and spot prices in Fujian fluctuated, and the spot premium slightly expanded [15]. - **Warehouse receipt statistics**: From December 9th to 18th, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - **Aquatic product prices**: Aquatic fish prices slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. - **Import and inventory**: Rapeseed imports increased slightly in December, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mill rapeseed inventory remained low, and rapeseed meal inventory was also at a low level. The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remained at zero [23][25][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, South American soybeans are likely to have a significant yield increase, but the impact of La Niña on southern Brazil and Argentina should be monitored. The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season remains at a historically low level, supporting US soybean prices, and there is still room for adjustment in US soybean yield and exports. It is expected that the downward price movement of US soybeans is limited [5]. - On the demand side, the crushing profit of imported soybeans in China is generally in the red, leading oil mills to strengthen their price - holding intentions, which supports the price of soybean meal. The Chinese government is releasing imported soybeans through auctions, and the high transaction prices support the near - month contracts of soybean meal. In the Chinese pig - farming sector, the number of pig slaughterings in 2026 may increase year - on - year, but due to the loss - making situation in farming, the average slaughter weight of pigs is expected to decline year - on - year. In the Chinese poultry sector, the number of major meat - type poultry slaughterings is expected to continue growing in 2026, but the growth rate may slow down. In the Chinese egg - laying hen sector, due to the large inventory base of laying hens, past profitability in farming, and low market enthusiasm for culling, the inventory of laying hens in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to remain at a high level [5]. - Overall, with a high probability of South American soybean yield increase and stable domestic demand, the supply - demand situation is loose. There is no strong driving force for a significant increase in soybean and rapeseed meal prices. It is expected that the prices of soybean and rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate within a wide range [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Annual Viewpoints and Strategies - Supply - side: In 2026, South American soybeans are likely to increase in production, but attention should be paid to La Niña's influence on southern Brazil and Argentina. The low inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans supports prices, and there is potential for adjustment in US soybean yield and exports [5]. - Demand - side: Domestic soybean crushing losses lead to stronger price - holding by oil mills. The government's soybean auctions with high prices support near - month contracts. Pig slaughter volume may increase in 2026, but weight may decline. Meat - type poultry slaughter is expected to grow with a slowdown in the rate. Laying hen inventory is expected to stay high in Q1 2026 [5]. - Overall: With supply - demand balance, soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [5]. Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral: The main contract of soybean meal may fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 2650 - 3000. For options, consider buying put options after price increases [7]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for now [7]. - Outlook: Key factors to watch include the weather in South American soybean - growing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and China - Canada and China - US trade relations [7]. International Situation - US Interest Rates: In September 2025, the US unemployment rate was 4.4%, slightly lower than the Fed's expected 4.5% but higher than the long - term target of 4.2%. The number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000, less than the target of 200,000. Due to the lag in CPI data release caused by the government shutdown and the expected decline in core CPI after considering the easing of China - US trade relations, there is a need for the US to cut interest rates in 2026 [10][12][14]. - China - US Trade: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders in late October 2025, trade relations eased, and China promised to purchase 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans. On November 5, China officially announced retaining a 10% tariff on US goods, so the current tariff rate for importing US soybeans is 13%. Since resuming imports, China has imported about 4 million tons of US soybeans [18]. - China - Canada Trade: On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports, leading to a halt in imports in October [20]. Domestic Situation - Domestic Prices: In October 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, indicating weak consumer demand [25]. - GDP Growth: In recent years, due to the in - depth adjustment of the domestic real estate market and the severe external environment, China's GDP growth rate has slowed down [29]. Policy - related Expectations - Anti - dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed: The result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed will be announced before March 9, 2026. The outcome is still uncertain, depending on China - Canada and Canada - US trade relations [34][35]. - State Auction of Imported Soybeans: On December 11, 2025, the National Grain Trading Center auctioned 512,500 tons of imported soybeans (from 2022 and 2023). The trading volume was 397,043 tons, with an average price of 3,935.3 yuan/ton and a trading ratio of 77.5%. The market expects a total of about 4 million tons of imported soybeans to be auctioned, and subsequent auctions need attention [37]. Fundamentals - Futures Price Trends: Since 2025, soybean meal futures prices have risen first, then fallen, and finally fluctuated widely. The price increase in Q1 was due to low imported soybean arrival; the decline in Q2 was due to sufficient supply; in Q4, prices fluctuated weakly with the easing of China - US trade relations [45]. - Feed Futures Contract Spreads: The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal has fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Impact Factors on Supply - La Niña's Impact: The latest Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is - 0.6, below the - 0.5 threshold. Most models suggest La Niña will persist in the Northern Hemisphere winter. However, NOAA predicts a 61% chance of ENSO turning neutral from January to March 2026, and the impact on South American soybean production is expected to be limited [58]. - US Soybean Inventory - to - Sales Ratio: According to the December USDA report, the inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 6.74%, at a historically low level, which supports US soybean prices and limits the downward price space [60][61]. - Brazilian Soybean Exports: As of early December 2025, Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress reached 95.17%. Before the new harvest, Brazil's available soybean exports are limited [67]. - South American Soybean Planting: As of December 5, 2025, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 90.3%, and as of December 11, Argentina's soybean planting progress was 58.6%. Overall, the planting progress is normal. Although La Niña needs attention, Brazil's soybean production is likely to increase due to the expanded planting area [71]. Demand - side Factors - Pig Farming: In 2025, the inventory of sows capable of reproduction was at a historically high level, indicating a possible year - on - year increase in pig slaughter in 2026. However, due to losses in farming, the average slaughter weight of pigs is expected to decline year - on - year [76]. - Poultry Farming: In 2025, the inventory of parent - generation white - feather broilers was high, and the supply of chicks in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to keep growing. The number of major meat - type poultry slaughterings is expected to grow, but at a slower rate. The inventory of laying hens in 2025 reached a historical high, and it is expected to remain high in the first quarter of 2026 [78]. Import and Inventory - Soybean Imports: In November 2025, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.373 million tons from October and an increase of 953,000 tons (13.32%) from November 2024. From January to November 2025, the cumulative soybean imports were 103.7814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6872 million tons (6.89%) [80]. - Rapeseed Imports: In October 2025, China's rapeseed imports were 0 tons. From January to October, the cumulative rapeseed imports were 2.4458 million tons, a 51.8% decrease from the same period last year [84]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.1552 million tons, a 2.51% decrease from the previous week and a 30.80% increase from last year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week and a 70.74% increase from last year [89]. - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons. The low inventory is due to the off - season of aquaculture, and the sufficient supply of soybean meal suppresses rapeseed meal prices [93]. Technical Analysis - The current price of the soybean meal 2605 contract is at a historically low level [99].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2320 - 2380. It is influenced by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation, and the market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend will maintain a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to future developments [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2320 - 2380. Its fundamentals are neutral, with the basis being in a premium state (spot 2510, basis 163), which is bullish. The inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease, also bullish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The main long positions are increasing while the funds are flowing out, which is bullish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvest stage, but due to Sino - Canadian trade issues, short - term exports are expected to decrease. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports found it to be true, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, providing support for commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From December 4th to 12th, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was mostly 0, with only 0.6 tons on December 10th. The trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated between 8.25 - 27.85 tons during the same period. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 566 - 628 [13]. - From December 4th to 12th, the prices of near - month rapeseed meal futures 2601, main - contract 2605, and rapeseed meal spot (Fujian) all fluctuated. The spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expanded [15][18]. - From December 3rd to 12th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - The arrival of imported rapeseed in December increased slightly, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remained at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory was also at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remained at zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish decreased slightly, while the price of shrimps and shellfish remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2300 - 2360. The market has returned to an oscillatory state, awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend is influenced by soybean meal, and the market will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, with attention on subsequent developments [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No relevant information provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but due to Sino - Canadian trade issues, short - term exports are reduced, affecting domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with a relative offset between Ukraine's rapeseed production decline and Russia's increase. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From December 2nd to 10th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3074 to 3095, and the trading volume from 8.55 to 27.85 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2460 to 2520, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.6 million tons on December 10th. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal ranged from 566 to 614 [13]. - From December 3rd to 11th, the price of near - month 2601 rapeseed meal futures ranged from 2355 to 2422, and the price of main 2605 futures from 2317 to 2409. The rapeseed meal spot price (in Fujian) ranged from 2460 to 2520 [15]. - From December 2nd to 11th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - Rapeseed meal futures have rebounded in an oscillatory manner, with the spot price fluctuating accordingly, and the spot premium fluctuating slightly. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal spot prices has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has expanded slightly [18][20]. - There were no ship arrival forecasts for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills remained at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory was also low. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remained at zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish has declined slightly, while the price of shrimps and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data - No relevant information provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamental analysis: Rapeseed meal is oscillating narrowly, influenced by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. Due to uncertainties in Sino - Canadian trade consultations, the short - term trend is influenced by soybean meal and maintains an oscillatory pattern within the range, with a neutral outlook. - Basis: The spot price is 2500, and the basis is 166, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% from last week's 1.8 million tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 2.2 million tons in the same period last year, which is bullish. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish. - Main position: The main long positions have decreased, but the capital has flowed in, which is bullish. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal has returned to an oscillatory state due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. With recent rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, and subsequent developments should be monitored [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both supply and demand weakness. Domestically, the supply is tightening due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports, but the demand is also weakening as the first shipment of Australian rapeseed may be crushed this month and the demand for aquaculture decreases with the temperature drop. Additionally, the domestic soybean auction news is negative for the domestic meal market, and the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures price has been fluctuating weakly recently, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and whether the China - Canada trade policy can make a breakthrough [2] - The rapeseed oil market continues to digest the negative news of the higher - than - expected Canadian rapeseed production and the arrival of Australian rapeseed. Although the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing due to supply restrictions, the sufficient supply of soybean oil with a good substitution advantage keeps the rapeseed oil demand at a rigid level. As a result, the futures price of rapeseed oil continues to decline [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9443 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2329 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; that of ICE rapeseed is 633.3 Canadian dollars/ton, up 19.4 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5508 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 290 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 69 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 90128 lots, down 18419 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 579248 lots, up 26385 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is - 19107 lots, down 4591 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 89134 lots, up 4358 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3490 sheets, down 231 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9818.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7708.91 yuan/ton, up 60.44 yuan; the spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.96, down 0.04; the basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 257 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 51 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1160 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1060 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Canada's rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0 tons, down 115300 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 140000 tons, down 20000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 220600 tons, up 62900 tons [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0 tons, down 100 tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 449 yuan/ton, down 204 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.8 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.02 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 33.9 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 19.36 million tons, down 1.9 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.7 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 23.4 million tons, down 0.9 million tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil pickup volume is 0 tons, unchanged; the weekly rapeseed meal pickup volume is 0.45 million tons, down 0.67 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4276 thousand tons, down 67.4 thousand tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, up 69.04 billion yuan [2] Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.94%, down 0.08%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.93%, down 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.59%, down 0.79%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.59%, down 0.79% [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 10.4%, down 0.49%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 11.71%, up 0.18%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 9.72%, down 1.98%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.96%, up 0.17% [2] Industry News - On December 9 (Tuesday), the ICE rapeseed futures rebounded, ending an eight - day losing streak. The January rapeseed futures contract closed 6.20 Canadian dollars higher at 619.90 Canadian dollars per ton, and the March contract rose 5.70 Canadian dollars to 631.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - US soybeans have entered the export season with sufficient supply in the short term, and the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is also concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US, and the price of US soybeans has fallen from recent highs [2] - The MPOB report shows that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of November increased by 13.04% to 2.84 million tons compared with the previous month, higher than the market forecast of 2.66 million tons. The export of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days is still declining, and the export is still weak, which drags down the price of Malaysian palm oil [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2280 - 2340. It is currently in an oscillatory state, influenced by soybean meal trends, technical adjustments, and the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak demand season for rapeseed meal has passed, the low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the short - term trend will maintain an oscillatory pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal futures have rebounded, and the spot price has followed the fluctuations, with a slight change in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has slightly widened. The arrival of imported rapeseed in November has no shipping schedule forecast, and the import cost has been affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are both at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume has remained at zero [18][20][23]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight. The demand side is gradually decreasing, which suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but the China - Canada trade issue has reduced short - term exports and the domestic supply is expected to decrease. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports found it to be established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsetting each other. The global geopolitical conflict may still rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - **Bearish factors**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability that China and Canada will reach a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff battle on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: The report provides the trading average price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from December 1st to 9th, as well as the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. It also shows the prices of rapeseed meal futures (near - month 2601 and main 2605) and the spot price in Fujian during the same period [13][15]. - **Inventory data**: As of a certain period, the rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from 2.2 tons last year [9]. - **Aquaculture data**: The price of aquatic fish has slightly decreased, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data The main long positions of rapeseed meal have decreased, but the capital has flowed in [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a state of shock and decline, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical shock adjustments. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. Due to the uncertainty of China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain a range - bound shock in the short term, mainly affected by soybean meal [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to be shock - biased strong. The RM2605 contract will fluctuate between 2300 and 2500 in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct short - term operations or wait and see. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and the domestic supply expectation [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, and it depends on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed supply and demand balance sheet: From 2014 to 2023, the harvest area, output, and total supply of rapeseed in China have shown certain fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also varies year by year [15]. - Rapeseed meal supply and demand balance sheet: From 2014 to 2023, the production, total supply, and demand of rapeseed meal in China have changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [17]. - Imported rapeseed: There is no ship arrival forecast in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [18]. - Oil mills: The rapeseed crushing volume remains at zero, the rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also low [20][22]. - Aquaculture: The prices of aquatic fish have slightly declined, while the prices of shrimps and shellfish have remained stable [30]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is driven by soybean meal to decline in shock. The China - Canada trade relationship is still uncertain, and the short - term market has returned to shock. The KDJ and MACD indicators are declining in shock, and the short - term market is in a technical shock adjustment stage. Whether it will continue to decline or rebound depends on the rapeseed import policy and soybean meal trends [41]. 7. Next Week's Concerns - Most important: The harvesting weather conditions in the US soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [43]. - Second most important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture, and the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [43]. - Third most important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [43].