Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 国内方面，春假假期客流量、消费数据总体向好：全国春运跨区域客运创历史新高，单 日出行量 2 月 20 日突破约 3.5 亿人次，前 20 天累计跨区域出行已超 50 亿人次，整个春运 预计可达约 9.5 亿人次规模；假期消费稳步增长，主要商圈零售与餐饮销售同比提升逾 8%， 部分免税及服务消费显著增加，旅游与文化娱乐消费保持活跃，总体呈现"消费景气度提升" 的季节性特征，更全数据等待后续相关部门披露。总体而言，2 月处于经济数据和政策真空 期，短期市场焦点或将转向开年经济成色以及 3 月初两会的政策预期。 贵金属：美国关税不确定性加大，金银价格走强 国内春节长假期间，国际贵金属价格维持震荡偏强走势，国际金价重返 5200 美元上方， 银价走势更强，国际银价再度站上 87 美元/盎司。美国经济整体仍具韧性，但部分增速不及 预期。通胀方面，回落进程受阻、粘性特征凸显，12 月美国 PCE 价格指数同比升至 2.9%、 环比 0.4%，核心 PCE 同比升至 3%，均高于预期，核心 PCE 结束连续走平态势反弹，仍高 于美联储 2%目标。美联储 1 月议息会议纪要显 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite, the reversal of US tariff policies, the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange - rate driving foreign capital inflows, and the release wave of large models and the popularity of robots, stock indices are expected to show a strong performance [4]. - The unchanged LPR in February meets market expectations. Although there is potential inflation pressure on the bond market, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation. With a loose capital - market environment and strong bond - market allocation power, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. - Gold is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation due to factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainty. Future trends depend on US macro - economic data, Fed officials' speeches, and US tariff policies [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation, aluminum prices may rise slightly in the short - term, and nickel prices are expected to rise with a contraction in supply [12][14][19]. - In the black building materials sector, the black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play, and it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products have different strategies. For example, crude oil is recommended for mid - term layout, and methanol is suggested to be bought at low prices in the mid - term [57][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand situation of various products varies. For example, the pig market has an oversupply situation in the short - term, while the sugar market is not suitable for excessive short - selling due to potential production - ratio adjustments in Brazil in the future [80][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Indices - **Market Information**: The US imposed a 10% tariff on relevant goods, the central bank carried out a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, Musk proposed a satellite - launching plan, and a four - legged robot was released [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stock indices are expected to perform strongly in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices had slight changes, relevant entities were added to the export - control list, the LPR remained stable, and the central bank had a large - scale net capital withdrawal [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices had different trends, and the COMEX precious - metal inventory decreased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose, LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot - futures basis and import losses also changed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, but zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell, and inventory and basis data changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead industry is in a weak state, but strategic stockpiling by battery enterprises may support prices in the short - term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose, and the cost and price of related products were stable [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel prices are expected to rise, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rebounded, and supply and demand had certain characteristics [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may tighten after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and production - recovery progress [21][22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term, and future price trends depend on ore - supply disturbances and supply - pressure relief [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices rose, and inventory and production - related data changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position view is maintained [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices rose, and inventory and trading - volume data changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and position changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage and is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron - ore prices will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic terminal - demand start - up and policy guidance [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking - coal and coke prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the upward impetus for coking coal is not strong, and there is a risk of price correction. In 2026, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October [36][37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose slightly, and soda - ash prices also rose slightly, with corresponding inventory and position data changes [38][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda - ash is expected to oscillate weakly and steadily in the short - term [40][42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell, and the technical form was in an oscillating state [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market may enter an oscillating and volatility - reducing cycle. The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the black - market trend, cost - push factors, and supply - contraction expectations [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. Relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial - silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to production changes in upstream and downstream enterprises and demand feedback [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization and inventory changed [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trading on the disk is recommended, and a hedging strategy of buying NR and selling RU2609 is suggested [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and related product prices rose [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term layout for crude oil is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical risks [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term strategy of buying at low prices is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and the basis data was provided [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A short - position strategy is recommended [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Profits from non - integrated styrene production have been repaired, and a profit - taking strategy is recommended [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and cost changed [65][66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support prices, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and start - up [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a need to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA inventory - accumulation cycle is about to end, and there is a mid - term opportunity to buy at low prices [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short - term, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy at low prices following crude - oil trends [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward space for PE valuation exists, and the supply - demand situation is in a seasonal off - peak period [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is a long - term opportunity to buy the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices fell, and the supply - demand situation was unbalanced [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at the bottom in the medium - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight fluctuations, and the supply - demand situation was normal [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to have limited decline, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean export data, Brazilian soybean harvest data, and domestic soybean and meal inventory data were provided [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Protein - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil production, export, and inventory data, as well as domestic and Indian oil inventory data were provided [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is currently weak, but a long - position strategy is recommended at low prices in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data from Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, as well as import data were provided [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the global sugar market. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the domestic market, and there may be a rebound after the end of the sugar - pressing season [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton export data, domestic cotton inventory and production - capacity utilization data, and relevant policy information were provided [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: US cotton prices rebounded, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for domestic cotton, with attention to downstream start - up [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - In the medium to long term, the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips. For the bond market, it is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend. For precious metals, they are in a high - level volatile pattern, and the market focus has shifted to the upcoming US CPI data. For various commodities, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy impacts, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity [4][7][9]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Category Index - **Market Information**: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations; the European Central Bank Executive Committee will expand the scope of application of the euro back - up financing mechanism; many car companies disclosed their solid - state battery technology paths and industrial plans; some companies made progress in 3D printing technology and PCB production [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Presented the basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods [3]. - **Strategy View**: Due to the intensifying divergence in US monetary policy expectations, the risk appetite of the capital market is suppressed, and the US stocks and precious metals are highly volatile. Domestically, the liquidity is tightened seasonally approaching the Spring Festival. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with an incremental scale of 50 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount. In 2025, commercial banks' net profit was 2.4 trillion yuan, and the average capital profit rate and average asset profit rate were 7.78% and 0.60% respectively. The central bank's net injection on Thursday was 44.8 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy View**: The central bank emphasizes the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and the capital market is expected to remain loose. The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the bond market is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: On Thursday, precious metals tumbled. The decline was due to the decline of US technology stocks, investors' forced liquidation, and profit - taking. The US initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims data were released, and the US existing home sales in January decreased by 8.4% month - on - month [8]. - **Strategy View**: Although short - term monetary policy expectations suppress precious metals, they are still in a high - level volatile pattern. The market is waiting for the US CPI data. The strategy is to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 950 - 1100 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 18500 - 21000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Before the domestic long holiday, funds were cautious. Overnight silver and US stocks declined, and copper prices fell after rising. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased [12][13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the market sentiment is affected by the decline of precious metals, the strong manufacturing in Europe and the US provides support. The copper price is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 99000 - 103000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 12500 - 13200 US dollars/ton for LME copper [14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The Mozambique aluminum smelter is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. Aluminum prices rose and then fell. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic demand is weak, but the low LME inventory and high US aluminum spot premium support the price. The aluminum price is expected to be in a volatile and upward trend during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 23200 - 23600 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3050 - 3140 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc index rose slightly. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory started to accumulate, and the downstream enterprise operation was average [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc mine inventory accumulation slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC stabilized. Although the domestic zinc industry is weak, the strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise, and there is still a risk of price fluctuations during the Spring Festival [17][18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead index fell slightly. The lead ingot social inventory increased, and the waste battery inventory was higher than that in 2025 [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead ore inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee is low. The lead price is near the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and whether it can stabilize depends on the post - holiday restocking willingness of downstream enterprises [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fluctuated. The spot premium of nickel was stable, and the nickel ore price was stable. The price of nickel iron rose slightly [20]. - **Strategy View**: After the second decline of precious metals and risk assets, there is a short - term rebound demand, but the nickel price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern due to fundamental pressure. The approved nickel ore production quota has little impact on the price, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fluctuated. The smelter's production in Yunnan was stable, and that in Jiangxi was low due to the shortage of waste tin raw materials. The downstream demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price may rebound with the stabilization of precious metals, but it is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term due to the marginal relaxation of supply - demand and the increase in inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract and 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate spot index rose, and the futures price fell slightly. The inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is expected to be strong. The short - term supply - demand pattern is tight. The upstream has more bargaining power after the holiday. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 143,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The spot price in Shandong was at a discount to the main contract [26]. - **Strategy View**: There is a strike in the Guinea bauxite mine area, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of 2750 - 3000 yuan/ton for the main contract AO2605 [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference range of 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton for the main contract [29]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rebounded slightly, and the trading volume increased. The inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is average, the price is supported by supply - side disturbances and seasonal raw material shortages [31]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The rebar inventory started to accumulate, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The carbon emission trading policy may increase the cost of the steel industry. The steel market is in a bottom - game stage, and it is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and policy changes [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract fell slightly. The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased [36]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron water production is in a recovery trend. The ore price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern before the festival. Attention should be paid to overseas shipments and domestic terminal demand after the festival [37]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were at a premium to the futures prices [38]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas coal - related disturbances have a positive impact on sentiment, but the short - term upward drive of coking coal is not strong. The downstream replenishment is coming to an end, and there is a risk of price correction after the festival. Coking coal may have a better performance from June to October [40][42]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak [44]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to be in a volatile and sorted pattern, with the reference range of 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton for the main contract [45]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak [46]. - **Strategy View**: The soda ash market is in a weak and stable volatile pattern, with the reference range of 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton for the main contract [46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot prices were at a premium to the futures prices [47]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term commodity market is expected to be bullish, but the short - term market sentiment is affected by precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [48][49]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures price fell. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak [50]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in February. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [51]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures price fell. The supply decreased, and the inventory is expected to decrease slightly [52]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon market is expected to be in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and spot prices [53]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated with the commodity market. The tire enterprise operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased [56][57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to reduce risks before the Spring Festival, trade short - term on the disk, and hold a hedging position during the festival [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil futures price rose slightly. The US crude oil commercial inventory increased, and the diesel and fuel oil inventories decreased [59]. - **Strategy View**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [61]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot price changed slightly, and the futures price decreased [62]. - **Strategy View**: Methanol has priced in many negative factors. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term [63]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea spot price was stable, and the futures price rose [64]. - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened, and the fundamental outlook is negative. It is recommended to short - sell [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush, and attention should be paid to capacity and operating rate changes [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol market needs to reduce production to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound due to geopolitical factors and coal price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA market is in the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to be stable at a high level, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips after the Spring Festival [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand from downstream PTA was weak. The inventory increased [72]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The valuation is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips following the crude oil price [73][74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price fluctuated. The trading volume decreased approaching the Spring Festival [76]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term pig price is under pressure due to large supply and high inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies. The long - term price may be supported by seasonal factors and demand recovery [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable in most markets approaching the Spring Festival [78]. - **Strategy View**: The egg market is in the inventory - accumulation period. The short - term price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short - sell. The long - term price trend depends on capacity reduction [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price rose. The global soybean supply and demand were slightly adjusted in the USDA report [80]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term protein meal price is expected to be in a volatile pattern due to the increase in US soybean procurement expectations and the rise in import costs [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The domestic soybean oil price rose, the palm oil price fell, and the rapeseed oil price was stable. The global palm oil supply and demand data were released [82][83]. - **Strategy View**: The consumption growth of oils and fats is greater than the production growth this year. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The domestic sugar price fell. The domestic and foreign sugar production and sales data were released [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest is completed. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The domestic cotton price rose. The domestic and foreign cotton supply and demand data were released in the USDA report [88][89]. - **Strategy View**: The USDA report is neutral. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower edge of the shock range after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy [90].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industries. 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: In the short - term, the divergence in US monetary policy expectations and the approaching Chinese Spring Festival have affected the market. But in the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. For stocks, it is recommended to buy on dips; for bonds, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate; for precious metals, maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4][6][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate. Factors such as policy expectations, supply and demand, and inventory levels affect their prices. For example, copper is affected by reserve policies and supply - demand patterns; aluminum is supported by low LME inventory; zinc may be affected by macro sentiment; lead's price stability depends on post - holiday downstream restocking; nickel is under fundamental pressure; tin has supply - demand marginal relaxation; lithium carbonate has uncertain supply - demand after the holiday; alumina is affected by mine strikes and supply overcapacity; stainless steel is supported by fundamentals; and cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and supply - side factors [12][14][17][18][20][21][22][24][26][28]. - **Black building materials**: The black building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors. Steel products are affected by domestic real - estate policies and overseas monetary policies, and are expected to fluctuate weakly. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply and demand and inventory factors. Coking coal and coke may face short - term price pressure and potential long - term upward trends. Glass and soda ash are expected to continue to fluctuate, with glass lacking demand support and soda ash having weak demand. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are affected by market sentiment and cost factors. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a supply - demand double - weak situation [31][33][36][37][40][42][45][49][51]. - **Energy and chemicals**: For rubber, it is recommended to reduce risks before the Spring Festival. Crude oil should be taken profit at high prices and mid - term layout should be the main strategy. Methanol should be observed in the short - term. Urea should be short - sold. For pure benzene and styrene, profits can be gradually taken. PVC has a poor fundamental situation. Ethylene glycol has a high inventory pressure. PTA and p - xylene have good mid - term prospects. Polyethylene and polypropylene are affected by supply and demand and cost factors [56][58][61][63][65][68][70][73][75]. - **Agricultural products**: For live pigs, short - term selling on rebounds is recommended, while long - term support should be noted. For eggs, short - term short - selling is recommended, and the long - term situation depends on capacity reduction. For soybean and rapeseed meal, prices are expected to fluctuate. For oils and fats, mid - term bullishness is expected, and buying on dips is recommended. For sugar, wait for the international price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. For cotton, there is potential for long - term price increase, and low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival should be considered [83][85][88][90][94][97]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The central bank will continue the moderately loose monetary policy. SMC's Q4 revenue increased by 4.5% quarter - on - quarter, with a gross margin of 19.2% and a capacity utilization rate of 95.7%. Byte released a new image - generation model. The National Development and Reform Commission promotes the integration of bidding and AI [2]. - **Strategy**: Due to the divergence in US monetary policy expectations and the approaching Spring Festival, the market risk appetite is suppressed. In the long - term, policy support remains, so the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The central bank will continue the moderately loose monetary policy and conducted a net injection of 2059 billion yuan through reverse repurchase [5]. - **Strategy**: The central bank's policy indicates a loose capital situation. However, the economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the demand is weak. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices in domestic and international markets declined. The inflation expectations in the US decreased, and the retail sales were stagnant. COMEX silver inventory decreased [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is cautious, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Fundamentals support the price of gold, and the tight inventory supports the near - month price of silver. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: US retail sales data affected copper prices. LME and domestic copper inventories changed, and the import was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Policies and economic data support the sentiment. The supply of copper ore is tight, but the short - term supply is sufficient. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: The market volatility decreased before the holiday. Aluminum prices adjusted due to production cuts in Mozambique. Domestic and LME aluminum inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Domestic inventory accumulates, but LME inventory is low. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot changed. The inventory increased, and the import was at a loss [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The inventory accumulation of zinc ore slows down, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulates. The industry is weak, but macro sentiment may drive the price up [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot changed. The inventory increased, and the import had a profit [18]. - **Strategy**: The lead ore inventory is high, and the smelter's operating rate decreases seasonally. The price stability depends on post - holiday restocking [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices declined slightly. The spot premium and cost remained stable [19]. - **Strategy**: There is a short - term rebound demand, but the fundamentals are under pressure. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [20]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly. The supply was restricted by raw materials, and the demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may rebound with precious metals, but the short - term supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate increased slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: The pre - holiday capital is cautious. The future supply - demand is uncertain. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined. The basis and inventory changed [23]. - **Strategy**: The mine strike in Guinea needs attention, and the supply overcapacity persists. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless - steel futures increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the inventory increased [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the fundamentals are supported. It is recommended to buy on dips [26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures declined slightly. The inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost increases, and the supply - side factors support the price [28]. Black building materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The inventory and position changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a bottom - game stage, affected by domestic and overseas factors. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The price of iron - ore futures remained unchanged. The spot price and basis were reported [32]. - **Strategy**: The overseas shipment decreased, the demand was affected by equipment failure, and the inventory was high. Iron - ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke futures declined. The spot prices and basis were reported [34]. - **Strategy**: Overseas coal disturbances affect sentiment, and the short - term price upward drive is weak. There may be a long - term upward trend, but beware of post - holiday price corrections [36][37][39]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures declined. The inventory and position changed [40][41]. - **Strategy**: Glass lacks demand support, and soda ash has weak demand. Both are expected to continue to fluctuate [40][42]. - **Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron** - **Market Information**: The price of manganese - silicon futures increased slightly, and that of silicon - iron futures decreased slightly [43]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment and cost factors affect the prices. Pay attention to potential cost - driven events [44][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. The supply and demand changed [46][50]. - **Strategy**: Both are in a supply - demand double - weak situation. Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate [49][51]. Energy and chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices followed the market to rebound. The tire - enterprise operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased [53][54]. - **Strategy**: Reduce risks before the Spring Festival. Trade short - term on the disk and set stop - losses [56]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: The prices of crude - oil and refined - oil futures increased. The inventory of crude oil and refined oil changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [58]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed slightly [59]. - **Strategy**: The current price has factored in many negative factors. Observe in the short - term [61]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The import window is open, and the fundamentals are bearish. Short - sell [63]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [64]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired. Gradually take profits [65]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The price of PVC futures declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory changed [66][67]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to the changes in capacity and operation [68]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene - glycol futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [69]. - **Strategy**: The inventory pressure is high, and there is a need for production reduction. There is a risk of rebound [70]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The price of PTA futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [71]. - **Strategy**: Enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities [73]. - **p - Xylene** - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The inventory is expected to increase before the maintenance season. Pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities following crude oil [75]. - **Polyethylene (PE) and Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The prices of PE and PP futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [76][78]. - **Strategy**: PE's valuation has room to decline, and PP's price may bottom out. For PP, buy on dips for the 5 - 9 spread [77][80]. Agricultural products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: The domestic pig prices continued to decline [82]. - **Strategy**: Short - term selling on rebounds, and note the long - term support [83]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable with a few declines [84]. - **Strategy**: Short - term short - selling, and the long - term depends on capacity reduction [85]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures increased slightly. The supply and demand situation changed [86][87]. - **Strategy**: The prices are expected to fluctuate [88]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: The prices of oil futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [89][90]. - **Strategy**: Mid - term bullish, buy on dips [90]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures increased slightly. The supply and demand situation changed [91][93]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. Observe domestically [94]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures increased slightly. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [95][96]. - **Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations, long - term potential for increase. Look for low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [97].

商品日报 20260205 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 1 月 ADP 就业偏弱，A 股延续缩量反弹 海外方面，美国年初就业有所降温，1 月 ADP 仅增 2.2 万人，低于预期 4.5 万人，就业 增量高度集中于教育和医疗，制造业与专业服务收缩，结构性疲弱清晰。1 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 升至 53.8，但就业几乎停滞、价格回升，显示需求修复未能转化为用工扩张，"高价格、 弱就业"的分化格局延续。全球资源品博弈加剧，美、欧、日以"供应链韧性"为名加速制 度化结盟，旨在弱化中国在关键工业原料上的主导权。海外市场风险偏好较弱，美股科技又 因 AI 泡沫担忧下挫，美元指数抬升至 97.7，金价在 5000 美元上方震荡，铜价收跌 3%，油 价收涨，关注周五非农就业数据。 国内方面，A 股周三延续反弹，上证指数重回 4100 点，红利风格领涨，煤炭、光伏、 航空等板块领涨，两市成交额小回落至 2.5 万亿元、逾 3200 只收涨，赚钱效应边际转弱， 宽基指数 ETF 转为净流出，两融余额继续边际回 ...

1、美国预计将启动一项 120 亿美元矿产储备计划，范围预计涵盖稀土、铜和锂等关键矿产； 2、SpaceX 收购 xAI，预计估值将达 1.25 万亿美元；浙大发布全球首个峰值速度达到 10m/s 的全尺寸 人形机器人； 3、2026 年中央一号文件：促进人工智能与农业发展相结合；上海：大力培育发展脑机接口、第四代半 导体等未来产业； 文字早评 2026/02/04 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 4、黄金/白银现货最高反弹 6.24%/11%；日经 225 指数涨近 4%，创历史新高；韩国综合指数涨近 7%。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.63%/1.37%/3.96%/4.07%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-3.32%/0.51%/6.16%/5.23%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.44%/2.85%/11.41%/8.91%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.77%/0.47%/1.63%/2.59%。 【策略观点】 近期政策更多是担心市场短期过热，慢牛才是政策的长期导向。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the long - term, the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. For stocks, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. For bonds, the market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern. For precious metals, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. For various industrial products and agricultural products, specific analysis should be based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market sentiment [4][8][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - finance 1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin level and the daily limit for silver deferred contracts. Dozens of varieties such as Shanghai silver, palladium, and platinum hit the daily limit down. Tesla plans to mass - produce dry electrode technology and will unveil its third - generation humanoid robot, with an expected annual production of one million units. Geely's sales in January exceeded BYD's, with overseas sales increasing by 121.2% and 51.47% respectively year - on - year. The DRAM contract price for OEMs is around $10 - 20 per GB, much lower than the spot price [2]. - **Strategy View**: In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the market rhythm, and the strategy should be to buy on dips [4]. 1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes in closing prices. China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, and the manufacturing industry maintained an expansion trend. Citigroup Research warned that the gold valuation has reached an extreme level [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic recovery foundation is not yet solid, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, and the bond market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern [8]. 1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 3.61%, and Shanghai silver fell 17.04%. On Monday, gold and silver were heavily sold, hitting the daily limit down. The US manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was significantly higher than expected, indicating a recovery in the industry [9]. - **Strategy View**: The sharp reversal of the macro - market expectation led to a large - scale exit of long positions. The strong recovery of the US manufacturing industry may make the Fed more cautious about interest rate cuts, suppressing precious metal prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [11]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals 2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The US dollar index continued to rise, and non - ferrous metals declined. LME copper inventories decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventories increased slightly [13]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's plan to start a strategic key mineral reserve program and the better - than - expected manufacturing PMI in the US and the eurozone have eased the sentiment. The copper supply is expected to be stable, and the copper price is expected to stabilize [14]. 2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The sharp decline in silver prices spread pessimism, and the aluminum price dropped significantly. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continued to accumulate, and the demand was weak [15]. - **Strategy View**: Although the domestic demand is weak, the LME aluminum inventory is relatively low, and the aluminum price has strong support. If the precious metal volatility decreases and the domestic inventory situation is better than the seasonal average, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize [16]. 2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell on Monday. The LME zinc inventory accumulation slowed down, and the overseas natural gas price increase raised concerns about the cost of European smelters [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is currently following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. The subsequent trading focus may return to the industrial logic [18]. 2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell on Monday. The lead ore and recycled waste inventories increased, and the downstream battery enterprise operating rate decreased slightly [19]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial situation of lead is weak. The better - than - expected US manufacturing PMI has eased the panic to some extent [20]. 2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 2, the nickel price dropped significantly. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [21]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The market may return to real - world trading, and the increase in refined nickel production and inventory will put pressure on the price [22]. 2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: On February 2, the tin price fell and hit the daily limit down. The supply increase was limited, and the demand was weak [23]. - **Strategy View**: The tin market supply - demand is marginally loose, and the inventory is rising. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [23]. 2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate price dropped significantly. The contract total position reached a new low since late October [24]. - **Strategy View**: The buying sentiment in the commodity market has cooled significantly. Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, the market atmosphere has a greater impact. It is recommended to be cautious and observe or try with a light position [24]. 2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose slightly on February 2. The Guinea ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the supply - side policy, Guinea ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [26]. 2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price dropped on Monday. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the inventory turnover slowed down [27]. - **Strategy View**: The cost support of the industrial chain is still strong, and the price has strong support below. The bullish view remains unchanged [28]. 2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The casting aluminum alloy price dropped significantly on February 2. The cost price dropped significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly [30]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is average, the price has support in the short - term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [31]. 3. Black Building Materials 3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The螺纹 steel production remained high, and the demand decreased seasonally. The hot - rolled coil demand was relatively stable, and the inventory continued to decline slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policy adjustments [34]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price dropped on Monday. The overseas iron ore shipments increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [35]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas shipments are entering the off - season, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The price has support below and is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mills' replenishment and iron - making production rhythm [36]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The coking coal and coke prices fluctuated on February 2. The coking coal supply is gradually becoming looser, and the downstream inventory replenishment willingness is low [37]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the high - volatility risk [41]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price remained stable, and the soda ash price dropped slightly. The glass inventory decreased slightly, and the soda ash inventory increased slightly [42][44]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and the soda ash market is expected to be weakly stable and fluctuate [43][46]. 3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices dropped slightly on February 2. The manganese silicon supply is loose, and the ferrosilicon supply - demand is basically balanced [47]. - **Strategy View**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the black sector's direction and cost factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation and "dual - carbon" policy [49]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price dropped slightly, and the polysilicon price dropped slightly. The industrial silicon supply decreased, and the polysilicon demand decreased [50][52]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon supply - demand is expected to improve in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The polysilicon supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure [51][53]. 4. Energy and Chemicals 4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities dropped significantly, and the rubber market was affected by both long and short factors. The tire enterprise operating rate and the natural rubber inventory had different changes [55][56]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and strictly control risks. The strategy of buying NR and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [58]. 4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price dropped significantly, and the refined oil prices also dropped. The European refined oil inventory had different changes [59]. - **Strategy View**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [60]. 4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price dropped, and the MTO profit increased [61]. - **Strategy View**: The current methanol price has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upward space [62]. 4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price dropped slightly, and the overall basis was - 17 yuan/ton [63]. - **Strategy View**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and the fundamentals are expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. 4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price dropped, and the styrene price had different trends in spot and futures. The supply and demand sides had different changes [65]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene non - integrated profit has been significantly repaired. It is recommended to gradually take profits [66]. 4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price dropped, the production was at a high level, and the downstream demand was weak. The export was the only short - term support [67]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. The short - term price is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush. Attention should be paid to capacity and operating rate changes [68]. 4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price dropped, the supply load was high, and the demand load decreased. The port inventory continued to accumulate [69]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand situation needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. The valuation is expected to be compressed in the medium - term [70]. 4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price dropped, the supply was in high - maintenance, and the demand decreased due to the off - season. The inventory increased during the Spring Festival [71]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA processing fee has a high expected component, and there is a risk of correction in the short - term. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [73]. 4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price dropped, the load was high, and the downstream PTA was in maintenance. The inventory was expected to accumulate before the maintenance season [74]. - **Strategy View**: The mid - term pattern is good. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips following the crude oil price [75]. 4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price dropped, the upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory decreased [76]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline. The supply support has returned, and the demand is in the off - season [77]. 4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price dropped, the upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory decreased [78]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. The supply - surplus pattern is expected to change in the first quarter of next year, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [80]. 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price generally rose, but the short - term price is expected to stabilize [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price is under pressure, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. The long - term price has support, and attention should be paid to the downside support after the decline [83]. 5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly declined, and it is expected to be stable in the short - term [84]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price may fluctuate weakly, and the long - term price may correct the valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies [85]. 5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price dropped, and the domestic soybean inventory decreased. The USDA report data was slightly bearish, but the short - term fundamentals are improving [86][87]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out [88]. 5.4 Oils - **Market Information**: The oil futures price dropped, the Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the domestic oil inventory decreased slightly. The short - term price was affected by the decline of commodities [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term oil price may have bottomed out. It is recommended to wait for a correction and then try to buy [90]. 5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar futures price dropped slightly, and the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. The Indian sugar production increased, and the domestic sugar import increased [91]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [93]. 5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton futures price dropped, the spinning mill operating rate decreased, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased slightly. The US cotton export decreased [94][95]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term cotton price fluctuates widely, and the long - term price has room to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips before the Spring Festival [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - long term, policies support the capital market, and the strategy for the stock index is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs observation, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. - For precious metals, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude due to multiple factors [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, although there are short - term pressures, some metals may stabilize in the future [16][19]. - For black building materials, the market is in a bottom - game stage with short - term range - bound fluctuations [34]. - For energy chemicals, different strategies such as taking profit on rallies, short - selling, etc. are proposed for different products [61][65]. - For agricultural products, different strategies are given according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as short - selling on rebounds, waiting for callbacks to buy, etc. [84][92] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, China's January 2026 manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 ppts from the previous month, and precious metals tumbled [2]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips in the long - run as policies support the capital market, but pay attention to short - term market rhythms [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts had different price changes on Friday. The government emphasized the economic work in 2026, and the 2025 national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% compared to 2024 [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic recovery momentum's sustainability is uncertain, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the impact of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices plunged due to Warsh's nomination and other factors. The short - term dollar is expected to remain strong, and emerging markets may face capital outflows and currency depreciation [9]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude. The reference range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 950 - 1160 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 18000 - 22450 yuan/kilogram [13]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by geopolitical and Fed news, the copper price fell on Friday. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic inventory increased [15]. - **Strategy**: Although there are short - term pressure factors, the copper price is expected to stabilize gradually. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 102000 - 106000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12600 - 13500 dollars/ton [16]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fell on Friday. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and LME inventory decreased [17]. - **Strategy**: If the precious - metal volatility decreases and domestic inventory performs better than the seasonality, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24300 - 25000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3080 - 3180 dollars/ton [19]. Other Non - ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: The zinc price followed the sector. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd [20]. - **Lead**: The lead industry situation is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd [21]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price has a large short - term decline risk. It is recommended to sell on rallies. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 12.0 - 15.0 million yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 1.6 - 1.8 million dollars/ton [22]. - **Tin**: The tin price may have a large short - term correction risk. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370000 - 430000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 47000 - 51000 dollars/ton [24]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The lithium price has accelerated its decline. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium main contract is 136000 - 158000 yuan/ton [26]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price is expected to decline in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2700 - 2950 yuan/ton [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: Maintain a bullish view. It is recommended to lightly build long positions around 14000 yuan/ton. The reference range for the main contract is 13800 - 14700 yuan/ton [30]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The short - term price is supported by supply - side disturbances [32]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased on Friday. The inventory of rebar is accumulating, while that of hot - rolled coil is slightly decreasing [34]. - **Strategy**: The black - building materials market is in a bottom - game stage with short - term range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory changes, plate - demand recovery, and "dual - carbon" policies [34]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract price fell on Friday. The port inventory is at a high level, and the steel - mill inventory is increasing [35]. - **Strategy**: The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to steel - mill restocking and iron - water production rhythms [36]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated on January 30th. The coking - coal price is in a rebound cycle, and the coke price is approaching a long - term downward trend line [37]. - **Strategy**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to market - sentiment fluctuations [41]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass price increased on Friday, and the inventory decreased. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract is 1025 - 1125 yuan/ton [42][43]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash price increased on Friday, and the inventory increased. The market is expected to have a weak and stable fluctuation in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1250 yuan/ton [44][46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased on January 30th. The prices of both are in an oscillatory state [47]. - **Strategy**: The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Pay attention to manganese - ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial - silicon price fell on Friday. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the implementation of the large - factory production - reduction plan [51][52]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon price fell on Friday. The supply is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure. Pay attention to terminal - demand feedback and policy adjustments [53][54]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber market has large price fluctuations. The long and short sides have different views. The tire - enterprise开工率 has different changes, and the inventory is increasing [56][57]. - **Strategy**: Trade according to the short - term disk, set stop - losses, and consider building positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling the RU2609 contract [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude - oil main contract price increased, and the inventories of some refined oils changed. The gasoline inventory increased, while the diesel and fuel - oil inventories decreased [59]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [61]. Other Energy Chemicals - **Methanol**: The current price has priced in most of the geopolitical premium, and the upside space is under pressure [63]. - **Urea**: The import window is opened, and the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [65]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The pure - benzene price increased, and the styrene price decreased. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is recommended to gradually take profit [66][68]. - **PVC**: The PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to changes in production capacity and开工率 [69][70]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene - glycol market has a high load and high inventory. The supply - demand situation needs to be improved through production reduction [71][72]. - **PTA**: The PTA market is in the Spring - Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Pay attention to the risk of processing - fee correction and mid - term long - position opportunities [73][74]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and pay attention to long - position opportunities following the crude - oil price [75][76]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The PE futures price fell. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season [77][79]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The PP futures price fell. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is seasonally fluctuating. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [80][81]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price mainly increased over the weekend. The supply is large in the short - term, and the demand is relatively stable [83]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support level [84]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price generally decreased over the weekend. The supply is normal, and the demand is weak [85]. - **Strategy**: The near - month contract may oscillate weakly, and the far - month contract may continue to correct its valuation. It is recommended to short - sell [86]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein - meal futures price fell on Friday. The domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories decreased. The overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season [87][89]. - **Strategy**: The protein - meal price may be bottoming out [89]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil - and - fat futures price fell on Friday. The Malaysian palm - oil production decreased in January, and the domestic three - major oil inventories decreased [91][92]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback and then try to go long [92]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar futures price fluctuated on Friday. The Brazilian and Indian sugar productions had different changes, and China's sugar imports increased [93]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern - hemisphere harvest in February. Temporarily wait and see in the domestic market [94]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton futures price fell on Friday. The spinning - mill开机率 decreased, and the global cotton production and consumption have different changes [96][97]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price has room to rise in the long - term. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [98].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US economy shows resilience but trade differentiation intensifies, and metal speculation cools after acceleration; in China, the A - share market enters a stage of shrinking volume and differentiation, with a short - term correction in the upward slope of stock indices but a positive medium - term trend [2][3] - Precious metals are expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term, with an increased risk of a high - level correction in silver, and potential catch - up rallies in platinum and palladium [4][5] - Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level strong oscillations in the short term, supported by AI development and power grid investment [6][7] - Aluminum prices will remain in high - level oscillations due to market uncertainties and inventory accumulation [8][9] - Alumina may stop falling and oscillate, and a rebound depends on more production - cut news [10] - Cast aluminum is expected to oscillate at high levels due to supply - demand imbalance [11] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate moderately upward, supported by cost increases but pressured by weak demand and inventory accumulation expectations [12][13] - Lead prices will maintain weak and stable oscillations due to weak supply - demand in the industry chain [14] - Tin prices will adjust at high levels in the short term to digest regulatory impacts and are likely to rise easily later [15][16] - Steel prices are expected to oscillate, with attention on the pre - holiday inventory accumulation rhythm [18] - Iron ore prices will oscillate under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand [19] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate weakly before the Spring Festival [20] - Bean and rapeseed meal prices will continue to oscillate, affected by international trade and weather [21][23] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate moderately upward, supported by production reduction and export increase [24][25] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: In November 2025, US durable goods orders increased by 5.3% month - on - month, with core capital goods orders rising for the eighth consecutive month. Trump plans to raise tariffs on South Korean products, while India and the EU are about to announce a trade agreement. Gold and silver prices fluctuate after reaching highs, and copper prices rise slightly. Crude oil falls slightly, and the OPEC+ may continue to suspend production increases. The market focuses on the progress of the Fed Chairman selection and the risk of a US government shutdown [2] - Domestic: The A - share market oscillates and closes down, with the dividend and value styles outperforming. The trading volume rebounds slightly, but individual stocks generally fall. The margin trading scale continues to flow out, and the market enters a stage of shrinking volume and differentiation. The government will implement more proactive macro - policies [3] Precious Metals - COMEX silver futures show strong intraday gains but then almost give back all the gains. Platinum and palladium prices fall at night after rising during the day. The market has significant differences. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is affected by political factors, and the risk of a high - level correction in silver increases. The catch - up rallies in platinum and palladium are worth noting [4][5] Copper - Shanghai copper and LME copper show strong oscillations. The domestic spot market has poor trading, and inventory rises. The focus of the Fed's interest - rate meeting is on the successor to Powell. Alibaba's AI model release and the 14th Five - Year Plan's power grid investment will support copper consumption. Chilean mine strikes continue, and the market is in a tight - balance state [6][7] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum prices rise. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increase. The US government faces a shutdown crisis, and the market is uncertain. Consumption is weak during the off - season, and aluminum prices remain in high - level oscillations [8][9] Alumina - Alumina futures and spot prices show different trends. Some production capacity in Guizhou is under maintenance, reducing the supply surplus. The spot price is under pressure, and there may be more production cuts in the future [10] Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum futures prices rise. The price of scrap aluminum is resistant to decline, and the cost of cast aluminum is strongly supported. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is slightly increased, but the supply - demand is light, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [11] Zinc - Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices rise. The spot market has average trading, and inventory decreases. Some overseas mines increase production. The weak US dollar and cost increases support prices, while weak demand and inventory accumulation expectations put pressure on prices [12][13] Lead - Shanghai lead and LME lead prices show different trends. The spot market has poor trading, and inventory increases. Terminal sales are weak, and both upstream and downstream enterprises plan to have an early holiday. The industry chain has weak supply - demand, and prices will maintain weak and stable oscillations [14] Tin - Shanghai tin prices fall back, and the exchange takes regulatory measures. Alphamin's tin production in 2025 meets expectations and is expected to increase in 2026. High prices suppress consumption, and inventory accumulates. Prices will adjust at high levels in the short term and are likely to rise later [15][16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillate. The pre - holiday demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. Steel prices are expected to oscillate, with attention on the inventory accumulation rhythm [18] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillate. Overseas shipments increase slightly, and arrivals decrease significantly. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. Steel mills' inventory replenishment provides some support, and prices will oscillate under pressure [19] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillate. The coking coal auction flow - rate increases, and the coke production decreases. The upstream supply is stable, and the downstream demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly before the Spring Festival [20] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures prices rise. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be high, and the harvest progresses smoothly. Argentine weather is dry, and the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is uncertain. Prices will continue to oscillate [21][23] Palm Oil - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures prices rise. Malaysian palm oil production decreases, and exports increase. The US pressure on Canada and tight domestic rapeseed supply support prices. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate moderately upward [24][25]