期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货豆菜粕年报 南美大豆大概率增产 豆菜粕或宽幅震荡为主 20251215 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：姜世东 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 供给端，预计2026年南美大豆大概率增产，但仍要关注拉尼娜对巴西南部和阿根廷的影响。美豆25/26年度的 库销比仍处于历史低位，支撑美豆价格，且美豆单产和出口仍有调整的可能，预计美豆价 ...

股指 【行情资讯】 1、央行金融时报评论：将坚持内需主导放在首位； 2、国家发改委：综合整治"内卷式"竞争和培育发展新动能 深化拓展"人工智能+"行动； 3、三部门：合理确定贷款发放比例、期限和利率 加快推动个人消费贷款业务发展； 4、SpaceX 正式向员工通报 2026 年 IPO 计划，整体估值约 8000 亿美元。 期指基差比例： 文字早评 2025/12/15 星期一 宏观金融类 IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.15%/-0.55%/-1.09%/-2.01%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.06%/-0.76%/-2.38%/-5.22%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.12%/-1.15%/-3.41%/-6.66%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.26%/-0.49%/-0.50%/-0.94%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中 长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周五，TL 主力合约收于 112.470 ，环比变化-0.64%；T 主力合约收于 107.985 ，环比变 化- ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251212 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：降息后金银铜表现亮眼，国内经济政策以稳为主 海外方面，美国上周初请失业金人数大增 4.4 万至 23.6 万，创四年半来最大单周增幅， 但年末季节性扰动较大，未必指向劳动力市场实质走弱，关注下周的非农就业报告。美股走 势分化：顺周期权重更高的道指涨逾 1%，纳指受 AI 需求担忧及甲骨文疲弱云业务与高额 资本开支指引拖累而走弱。美联储降息后美元指数回落至 98.1、创两个月新低，推动大宗商 品普遍走强，金银铜大幅上行，其中铜、银再创新高；油价则在供需宽松预期下继续调整。 国内方面，中央经济工作会议延续了政治局会议的主基调，强调"稳中求进、提质增效"， 并保持财政、货币政策的基调：财政上保持必要的赤字规模、优化支出结构；货币上将"稳 增长、促物价回升"作为重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。综合而言未超 市场预期，2026 年政策大仍以"稳"为核心，力度或持平 2025 年。A 股周四放量量收跌， 微盘、双创等成长小票风格领跌，两市超 4 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251205 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：日央行加息预期升温，国内债市加速下跌 海外方面，就业数据依旧呈现好坏参半的局面，美国 11 月挑战者裁员 7.1 万人，同比 增速虽放缓至 24%，但规模仍为 2022 年以来同期最高，科技、电信、零售裁员居前。最新 初申失业金人数降至 19.1 万，为 2022 年 9 月来最低，显著好于预期；续申失业金人数回落 至 193.9 万，但仍处相对高位。日元因市场预期日本央行 12 月将加息而走高，长债收益率 飙至数十年新高，日央行或将利率从 0.5%上调至 0.75%，市场关注其后续加息幅度。美元指 数震荡回升至 99，10Y 美债利率升至 4.10%，美股震荡走平，油价涨超 1%，金、铜微跌。 今日关注美国 9 月 PCE 数据。 国内方面，A 股周四缩量震荡整理、结构显著分化，双创板块表现较优，微盘、红利风 格跌幅较大，两市超 3800 只个股收跌、成交额回落至 1.56 万亿，创下 8 月来新低。目前经 济基本面数据偏冷、12 月政策预期不 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, although the recent market rotation has accelerated and risk appetite has decreased, policies still support the capital market, and technology growth remains the main market trend. The medium - and long - term strategy for indices is to go long on dips [4]. - In the bond market, the manufacturing PMI in November showed an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment, but the service sector was weak, and the end - of - year social financing growth rate may remain weak. The supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve, and the market will generally maintain a volatile trend [6]. - In the precious metals market, silver is in an accelerated upward phase, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 14,500 yuan/kg. It is recommended to take profit in time if the price weakens. It is risky to open new long positions or short at high levels. Gold is in a breakthrough pattern at the end of a triangular convergence, and it is recommended to go long on dips [8]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper, aluminum, lead, and other metals are expected to have relatively strong short - term trends, while zinc is expected to fluctuate widely, and nickel is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11][13][15][18]. - In the black building materials market, steel demand has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Iron ore is expected to operate within a volatile range. Glass and soda ash are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to be bearish on soda ash in the short term [30][32][34][35]. - In the energy and chemical market, the short - term view on oil prices is not overly bearish, and a range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained. Methanol is expected to turn to a volatile adjustment after the bullish factors are realized. Urea is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations [52][53][55]. - In the agricultural products market, for pigs, it is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads. For eggs, a short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended. For soybeans and soybean meal, they are expected to fluctuate, and for palm oil, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [75][77][80][83]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: Zheng Shanjie proposed to increase the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution and the proportion of labor remuneration in primary distribution. Five departments encouraged local governments to provide convenience and discounts in computing power, algorithms, and data. Morgan Stanley raised its production forecasts for Google's TPU in 2027 and 2028 [2]. - **Strategy View**: The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is the main market trend. The medium - and long - term strategy for indices is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS declined. In November 2025, the number of new A - share accounts increased, and Trump seemed to favor Hassett as the Fed chairman. The central bank conducted 1563 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1458 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The manufacturing PMI in November showed an overall improvement, but the service sector was weak. The end - of - year social financing growth rate may remain weak. The supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve, and the market will generally maintain a volatile trend [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 0.85%, and Shanghai silver rose 1.10%. US economic data was weaker than expected, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Trump's hint that Hassett would be the Fed chairman affected the price of silver [7][8]. - **Strategy View**: Silver is in an accelerated upward phase, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 14,500 yuan/kg. Gold is in a breakthrough pattern at the end of a triangular convergence, and it is recommended to go long on dips [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The offshore RMB was strong, and the domestic equity market declined. The LME copper 3M contract fell 0.78%, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 88,590 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy View**: Geopolitical factors still pose headwinds, but the market is more focused on the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. The LME aluminum closed down 0.85%, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21,840 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory of domestic and LME aluminum ingots is in a downward trend, and the price center of aluminum is expected to rise further [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.69%, and the LME zinc 3S rose 24. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, but the total inventory increased [14][15]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry's weak fundamentals do not match the strong macro - sentiment expectations. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the medium term [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.75%, and the LME lead 3S rose 22.5. The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased marginally [16]. - **Strategy View**: The lead market has no major contradictions. In the Fed's rate - cut cycle, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.17%. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron were stable [17]. - **Strategy View**: The pressure of nickel oversupply remains large, but nickel prices may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.35%. The supply of tin concentrate has improved, but the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) has affected transportation. The demand in traditional fields is weak, but there is long - term demand in emerging fields [19]. - **Strategy View**: Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, supply disturbances are the determining factor for short - term prices. Tin prices are likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index fell 0.95%, and the LC2605 contract fell 0.39% [21]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease marginally, but the medium - term demand expectation is highly divergent. It is recommended to wait and see or use options [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell 0.22%. The Shandong spot price fell 5 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 22 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to recover, and the alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23][24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.16%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi were stable. The raw material prices were stable, and the inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is high, the demand is improving marginally, but the cost pressure is high. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price fluctuated. The AD2601 contract fell 0.14%. The domestic inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and the supply is affected by policies. If the inventory continues to decrease, the price is expected to rise [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The rebar main contract fell 0.03%, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.06%. The export of steel to South Korea will be affected by anti - dumping duties [29][30]. - **Strategy View**: The demand for steel has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of production cuts and important meetings [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract fell 0.06%. The spot price of PB powder in Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton [31]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas iron ore shipments were stable, the demand was weak, and the inventory increased. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within a volatile range [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract fell 0.19%, and the soda ash main contract rose 0.60%. The glass inventory decreased, and the soda ash inventory decreased [33][35]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is in a bottom - exploring stage, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The soda ash price is expected to be stable in the short term, but it is recommended to be bearish before the demand improves [34][35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon main contract fell 0.03%, and the ferrosilicon main contract fell 0.33%. The black market was weak, and the iron alloy was affected [36]. - **Strategy View**: The market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to pay attention to the turning point of market sentiment. The iron alloy is affected by the weak coke market, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon main contract fell 1.86%, and the polysilicon main contract fell 2.41%. The production of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand for polysilicon decreased [41][43]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and prices are easily affected by market sentiment. The polysilicon market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and it is recommended to short on rallies [42][44]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fell, and the technical pattern was broken. The flood in Thailand receded, and the fundamentals of rubber were weak. The tire factory's operating rate was weak, and the inventory increased [46][48]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. A hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures rose 0.09%, and the refined oil futures had different trends. The Chinese crude oil inventory increased, and the gasoline inventory decreased [51]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price in Taicang rose 14, and the 01 contract fell 4. The market stopped falling and stabilized [53]. - **Strategy View**: The potential bullish factors in Iran are being realized. The market is expected to turn to a volatile adjustment after the bullish factors are realized. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [53]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea spot price was stable, and the 01 contract rose 12. The market was in a bottom - building stage [54]. - **Strategy View**: The urea price is expected to gradually break out of the bottom range. It is recommended to go long on dips [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene futures rose. The supply of pure benzene was wide, and the inventory of styrene increased [56]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is room for valuation repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reverses [57]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 22, and the cost was stable. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [58]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic PVC market has a strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 5, and the inventory increased. The domestic supply is expected to decrease in December, but the medium - term supply is still high [61]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 10, and the inventory decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable [63]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [64]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell 18, and the inventory increased. The PX load is high, and the downstream demand is weak [65]. - **Strategy View**: The PX is expected to accumulate inventory slightly in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [66]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: The PE main contract rose 28, and the inventory decreased. The supply is limited, and the demand is in the off - season [67]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has limited downward space. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [68]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: The PP main contract rose 13, and the inventory decreased. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is seasonal [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PP market has a weak supply - demand situation. It may be supported when the cost - side supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price was weak, and the supply increased while the demand growth was limited [74]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure of live pigs remains, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable or fell, and the inventory increased slightly [76]. - **Strategy View**: The far - month egg price is strong, and the near - month price is affected by inventory and consumption. A short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended [77]. Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fluctuated, and the domestic soybean meal price decreased. The global soybean supply is expected to decrease, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress is good [79]. - **Strategy View**: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom support, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production was volatile. The domestic oil inventory decreased [81]. - **Strategy View**: The palm oil market may reverse if the Indonesian production decreases. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell, and the spot price decreased. The production of sugar in India and Brazil increased [84]. - **Strategy View**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies [85]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose, and the spot price increased. The global cotton production is expected to increase, and the domestic demand is stable [86][87]. - **Strategy View**: The Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend, and the probability of a trend - following market is low [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US November ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2, contracting for nine consecutive months, with a weak demand and improving output situation. The market's expectation of a December BOJ interest rate hike rose to 80%, leading to a stronger yen and a significant increase in Japanese bond yields. In the domestic market, the November RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9, shifting from expansion to contraction. A-shares rose with heavy volume on Monday, and the bond market generally recovered [2][3]. - Precious metals: Silver prices reached a new high, but short - term risks need to be watched. Copper: CSPT may jointly cut production next year, and copper prices hit a record high. Aluminum: Despite the off - season, aluminum prices are expected to be strong. Alumina: Local production cuts may provide temporary support. Cast aluminum: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Zinc: The price center has moved up, and it is expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. Lead: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the price is expected to repair strongly. Tin: The macro and micro performances are differentiated, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Industrial silicon: The supply and demand are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Steel products: Cost rebounds drive the price to oscillate and rebound. Iron ore: The price is under pressure to oscillate. Coking coal and coke: The price rebounds at a low level, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Bean and rapeseed meal: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. Palm oil: It is expected to oscillate within a range [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][16][17][19][20][21][23][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, with new orders dropping at the fastest rate since July, factory employment continuing to contract, raw material payment prices rising, and the production index expanding at the fastest rate in four months. The BOJ governor hinted at a possible December interest rate hike, and the market's expectation probability rose to 80%, leading to a stronger yen and a significant increase in Japanese bond yields. The US dollar index fell back to the 99 mark and then rebounded, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.08%. Silver and copper reached new highs and then fell, while oil prices closed higher [2]. - Domestic: The November RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9, shifting from expansion to contraction. New export orders grew at the fastest rate in eight months, indicating a recovery in external demand, but the overall sentiment remained in the contraction range. A - shares rose with heavy volume on Monday, and the bond market generally recovered [3]. Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices continued to rise on Monday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.24% to $4265.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.25% to $58.45 per ounce, with silver hitting a new record high. COMEX platinum and palladium futures showed a trend of rising and then falling and closed slightly lower. The tightness of New York silver spot and potential delivery risks boosted silver prices. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December exceeded 87%. It's not advisable to chase high in the short term, and the domestic platinum and palladium are expected to be weak [4][5]. Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper approached the 90,000 mark, and LME copper reached a maximum of over 11,300 and then fell. The CSPT plans to cut production by more than 10% in 2026 to address the distorted copper concentrate processing fees. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected and the previous value, hitting a four - month low. The weak US manufacturing data and the uncertainty of the Fed's leadership have an impact on copper prices. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain strongly oscillating at a high level [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,865 yuan/ton, up 1.65%. The LME closed at $2888 per ton, up 0.8%. The aluminum ingot inventory was flat, and the consumption in the off - season showed resilience. With copper prices hitting a new high, aluminum prices are expected to be strong [8][9]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2677 yuan/ton, down 1.51%. A Shanxi alumina enterprise will start maintenance, reducing the daily output by about 2000 tons. The fundamentals of alumina are still bearish, but local production cuts may provide temporary support [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 21,055 yuan/ton, up 1.54%. The end - of - year order rush and tight raw materials support the price. Cast aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. Zinc - On Monday, the price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc rose with increased positions, and LME zinc strengthened. The supply pressure has been continuously relieved, with the LME0 - 3 premium soaring and processing fees dropping significantly. The production in November was lower than expected, and it is expected to decrease in December. Short - term zinc prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited [12][13]. Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and opened slightly higher at night, and LME lead rebounded. The supply in December is expected to decrease, and the demand for lead - acid batteries has improved marginally. Lead prices are expected to repair strongly [14][15]. Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the day and oscillated horizontally at night, and LME tin first declined and then rebounded. The production in November was lower than expected, and it is expected to increase in December. The potential supply disruption in Congo due to the conflict and the uncertainty of the Fed's leadership have an impact on tin prices. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side is contracting, with Xinjiang maintaining a high operating rate and the southwest region's operating rate dropping due to the dry season. The demand side shows mixed performance. The supply and demand are generally balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17][18]. Steel Products - On Monday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The real - estate supply in November increased slightly. The overall supply - demand drive is weak, and the inventory reduction provides support. Steel prices are expected to oscillate, and short - term attention should be paid to the impact of capital contract switching [19]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The overseas supply is at a high level, and the demand from steel mills is weak. Iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure to oscillate [20]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Monday, coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The upstream supply is stable, but the downstream demand is weak. The coking enterprises' inventory is increasing, and the demand for blast furnace raw materials is poor. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - term attention should be paid to the rhythm of contract switching [21][22]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the bean meal 01 contract closed down 0.36%, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract closed down 1.46%. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing well, and the domestic oil mill's soybean and bean meal inventories have increased. The coastal oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are almost depleted. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [23][24]. Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 01 contract closed up 0.75%. In November, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and export demand remained weak, with an expected increase in inventory. Domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After recent continuous declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is still the market's main line. The medium - to long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, maintaining an overall volatile trend. Pay attention to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased. The overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the further driving force will be released in December. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends of volatility, strength, or weakness. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market News**: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued a document to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand; the Cyberspace Administration of China strengthened the management of financial "self - media" and MCN accounts; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the listing benchmark prices of platinum and palladium futures; US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December; the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - period treasury bonds were lower than the ChinaBond valuations. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth rate may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold rose 0.37%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.73%. COMEX gold and silver prices are also provided. A Fed governor made dovish remarks, and the market expects an 82.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December [8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overnight, US stocks rose, and the offshore RMB strengthened. LME copper prices increased, and domestic copper inventories and premiums showed certain changes [11]. - **Strategy**: Fed officials' dovish remarks increase the probability of a December interest - rate cut. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and downstream demand is strong. Copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Supported by overseas supply disruption news, aluminum prices rose. LME and domestic aluminum inventories and premiums changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Global aluminum inventories are low, and supply disruptions support prices. Although the downstream is entering the off - season, aluminum prices may strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc index prices decreased slightly. LME and domestic zinc inventories and basis are provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc ore imports decreased in October, and the supply of zinc ore is tight during the winter stockpiling period. However, in the long - term, the zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: On Wednesday, Shanghai lead index prices rose slightly. LME and domestic lead inventories and basis are provided [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing, while the demand for lead - acid batteries is declining. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded. Spot prices and cost factors are provided [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish. Wait for the nickel - iron price to stabilize [18]. Tin - **Market News**: On November 26, Shanghai tin prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory information are provided [19]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal improvement of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, while the futures price of LC2605 decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: The improvement of fundamentals boosts bullish sentiment, but there are concerns about off - season demand. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Alumina - **Market News**: On November 26, the alumina index decreased. Information on basis, overseas prices, and inventory is provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to increase, and the alumina smelting capacity is over - supplied. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract price rose. Spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory information are provided [24]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price rose slightly, but the demand is affected by the real - estate market. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated. Information on contract prices, inventory, and demand is provided [26]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts decreased. Information on spot prices, registered warrants, and inventory is provided [29]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in the off - season, and the export is affected by anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term but may improve with policy implementation [30]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Yesterday, the iron - ore main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and inventory is provided [31]. - **Strategy**: Overseas iron - ore shipments decreased, and the demand for iron ore is stable. The overall inventory is high, and the price is expected to oscillate [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the glass main contract price rose slightly. Information on spot prices, inventory, and positions is provided [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of glass may decrease in December, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [34]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the soda - ash main contract price decreased. Information on spot prices, inventory, and positions is provided [35]. - **Strategy**: The supply of soda ash is in excess, and the demand is divided. The price is expected to be weak [35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: On November 26, the prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts decreased. Information on spot prices, basis, and price trends is provided [36]. - **Strategy**: The market risk appetite has weakened, and the prices of ferrous alloys have decreased. However, with the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, there may be a turning point. It is recommended to pay attention to market sentiment [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: Yesterday, the industrial - silicon main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and production is provided [40]. - **Strategy**: The production of industrial silicon is decreasing, and the demand is affected by the polysilicon and organic - silicon industries. The price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: Yesterday, the polysilicon main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and production is provided [43]. - **Strategy**: The production of polysilicon is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to platform company progress and price feedback [44]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices rebounded. Thailand's rubber - producing areas were affected by floods, and the inventory of exchange - traded RU was low. The opinions of bulls and bears are different [46]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take a bullish short - term strategy and partially build positions for hedging [50]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: INE crude - oil futures prices decreased. The inventory of refined oil products in the Fujairah port increased [51]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [52]. Methanol - **Market News**: The prices of methanol in different regions and the main contract increased. Information on basis and spread is provided [53]. - **Strategy**: The positive impact of Iranian device shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory pattern remains. It is recommended to wait and see [53]. Urea - **Market News**: The prices of urea in different regions and the main contract changed. Information on basis and spread is provided [54]. - **Strategy**: The urea price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply is high, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to buy on dips [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price of styrene rose. Information on basis, spread, and supply - demand is provided [56]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the demand is in the seasonal peak. The price may stop falling [57]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC01 contract price decreased. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [58]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PVC is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The EG01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease in December, but the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA may increase, and the demand is affected by inventory and the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space [64]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The PX01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [65]. - **Strategy**: The load of PX is high, and the downstream PTA is in maintenance. PX may accumulate inventory in November, and the valuation may be adjusted downward [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The futures and spot prices of PE decreased. Information on basis, inventory, and supply - demand is provided [67]. - **Strategy**: The price of PE is expected to be volatile at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the seasonal peak [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The futures and spot prices of PP decreased. Information on basis, inventory, and supply - demand is provided [69]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand is in the seasonal low. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [70]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market News**: Yesterday, domestic hog prices mostly decreased. The supply is high, and the demand is weak [72]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [73]. Eggs - **Market News**: Yesterday, the national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply and demand are in a stalemate [74]. - **Strategy**: The spot price of eggs has not followed the futures price increase. The price is expected to be oscillating in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybean prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the meal inventory is large [76]. - **Strategy**: The global soybean supply has decreased, and the import cost has a bottom support. The meal price is expected to oscillate [77]. Oils - **Market News**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The domestic oil inventory may decrease in the future [78]. - **Strategy**: The high production of palm oil suppresses the price. It is recommended to take an oscillating view and turn bullish if production decreases [79]. Sugar - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated. The production of sugar in Brazil and India is expected to increase [81]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in excess, and the international sugar price may be weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [82]. Cotton - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The global cotton production is expected to increase [83]. - **Strategy**: The demand for cotton is not too bad after the peak season, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market has a certain degree of short - term uncertainty due to previous rises and overseas market adjustments, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with different support and pressure factors [13][15][18]. - The steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. - The energy and chemical market shows different trends, with some products recommended for long - term strategies and others for short - term caution [56][58][60]. - The agricultural product market also has various trends, such as short - term weak operation for some and shock - based operation for others [81][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US government may allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China; the SASAC held a central enterprise specialization integration promotion meeting; Changxin Storage released new DDR5 products; a Goldman Sachs partner said the US stock market may continue to sell off [2]. - **Strategy View**: After previous rises and influenced by overseas market adjustments, the short - term index is uncertain, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The main contracts of TL, T, and TF decreased on Friday, while TS remained unchanged. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and the US PMI data showed mixed results. The central bank conducted a net injection of 1622 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold prices rose slightly, and silver prices fell. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported. Fed officials' "dovish" remarks supported precious metal prices [9]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded after a decline, with LME copper inventory decreasing and domestic spot premiums rising [12]. - **Strategy View**: The copper price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with strong support at the bottom [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rebounded after a decline, with domestic and overseas inventory changes and improved downstream procurement sentiment [14]. - **Strategy View**: The aluminum price is expected to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment, with strong support [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the zinc industry still in an over - supply cycle [18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with relatively loose supply [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price continued to fall, with changes in spot premiums and cost [20]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell slightly, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory. The safety situation in the DRC may affect tin mines [23]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The carbonate lithium price fell, with changes in spot and futures prices [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to potential disturbances and the reference range of the main contract [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [28]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with attention to supply - side policies [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and cost [30]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with an over - supply situation [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [31]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term [33]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [35]. - **Strategy View**: The steel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [37]. - **Strategy View**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate within a range, with strong supply and stable demand [38][39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the soda ash price fell. There were changes in inventory and basis [40][41]. - **Strategy View**: The glass price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the soda ash price is expected to be weakly volatile [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price fell, and the ferrosilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price, and to look for opportunities to rebound [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the polysilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [46][49]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate, and the polysilicon price is expected to oscillate within a wide range [48][50]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and adjusted, with changes in tire factory start - up rates and inventory [52][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to have a bullish strategy with stop - loss settings and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and there were changes in refined oil prices and inventory [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [59]. - **Strategy View**: The methanol price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with high inventory pressure [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [61]. - **Strategy View**: The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price was unchanged, and the styrene price rose. There were changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling in stages, with cost and demand factors [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price was unchanged, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [67]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [68]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA price is expected to be affected by supply, demand, and valuation factors [71]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The para - xylene price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [72]. - **Strategy View**: The para - xylene price is expected to have a risk of valuation correction, with high supply and low demand [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with cost and demand factors [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [77]. - **Strategy View**: The PP price is expected to be affected by cost and demand factors, and may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pig - **Market Information**: The pig price fluctuated, with normal supply and limited demand [80]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract or do reverse spreads [81]. Egg - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable with partial increases, with reduced inventory pressure and increased replenishment willingness [82]. - **Strategy View**: The egg price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to go short after a rebound in the medium term [83][84]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The soybean meal price was stable, with changes in import cost, inventory, and demand [85]. - **Strategy View**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and pressure on crushing margins [86]. Edible Oils - **Market Information**: The edible oil price fell, with weak palm oil export data and high supply [87]. - **Strategy View**: The palm oil price is recommended to be viewed with an oscillatory perspective, and turn to a bullish strategy if production decreases [88][89]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price fell, with an expected global surplus in the 2025/26 season and increased imports [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then go short [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly, with changes in production, inventory, and demand [92][93]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with no strong driving force [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equities**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2][3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term shock, cautious long - position [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term shock, cautious and wait - and - see [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [2][3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, US employment data is better than expected, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation further declines, and global risk appetite cools significantly. Domestically, China's October economic data slows down year - on - year and falls short of expectations, and the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations to release liquidity. The short - term macro upward drive weakens, and the market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and the Fed's monetary policy expectations [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends. Equities, treasury bonds, and various commodity sectors are mainly in a short - term shock state, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: US September non - farm payrolls exceed expectations, the unemployment rate rises to a four - year high, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation further declines. China's October economic data slows down and falls short of expectations. The central bank releases liquidity, but the Fed's hawkish signals suppress global risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive weakens, and equities are in short - term shock [2]. - **Equities**: Affected by sectors such as silicon energy, military, and coal, the domestic stock market falls. Due to weak economic data and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term macro upward drive weakens, and equities are in short - term shock. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see [3]. - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls exceed expectations, the prospect of a December interest - rate cut weakens, and precious metals prices weaken in the short term. They are in short - term shock, and the long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets continue to weaken. Although demand improves slightly, supply increases, and the price has no room for a sharp decline or a significant rise in the short term. Treat it with an interval - shock mindset [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures prices weaken slightly. The key factor determining the price is the decline process and the bottom - reaching time of hot - metal production. Short - term interval - shock [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron falls, and that of silicon manganese remains flat. The futures prices are expected to continue interval - shock [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreases marginally due to some device overhauls, but the overall supply pressure remains. The demand for heavy soda is stable, and that for light soda recovers slightly. Short - term interval - shock, long - term bearish [7]. - **Glass**: The glass production remains stable, and the demand improves marginally. The downstream demand is still weak, and the inventory is high. Short - term weak operation [7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: US copper inventories are at a historical high, and domestic refined - copper de - stocking is less than expected. The shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports the futures price. There is a risk of a downward break in the short term [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum falls slightly. Although the downstream replenishes inventory at low prices, the inventory is still high. The aluminum shortage is a false proposition, and the price may have a large correction. Short - term shock [9]. - **Tin**: The supply side recovers from overhauls, but the mine supply is tight. The demand side is weak in the peak season. The tin price is at a historical high, and the actual trading activity is insufficient. Short - and medium - term high - level interval - shock [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rises. The exchange strengthens risk control. Short - term cautious long - position or wait - and - see [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon falls. Organic silicon monomer factories plan to jointly reduce emissions and support prices. Pay attention to the continuity of funds and buy on dips [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon falls. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. Expected to be in a high - level interval - shock [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: If a peace agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia and energy sanctions are lifted, Russian oil supply will return to the market. Due to better - than - expected non - farm data and a lower Fed interest - rate cut probability, oil prices are under pressure and will remain weakly volatile [15]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices fall, and the asphalt futures price is approaching last year's low. The social and factory inventories are slightly decreasing, but the demand is in the off - season, and the over - supply pressure is high [15]. - **PX**: Crude oil falls slightly, and PX has limited upward momentum. It can still get some demand support. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by PX, PTA rebounds, but the supply is still high, and the downstream demand is seasonally weakening. The long - term bearish pressure is large [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory accumulates significantly, and the downstream demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain in low - level interval - shock [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber rebounds slightly following the polyester sector, but the future pressure is large. The terminal orders are seasonally decreasing, and the inventory is slightly increasing [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Commodity funds sell soybean futures contracts. The US faces competition from Brazilian soybeans in exports but has some support from sales to China. South American soybean planting is affected by floods [17][18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean and soybean - meal supply and demand are loose, and the basis is weakly stable. With the weakening of US soybeans, soybean meal may have a phased correction [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: US biodiesel policy disturbances increase, and the domestic soybean - oil supply is stronger than demand. The state's rapeseed - oil reserve sales are good, and the supply is becoming more abundant [19]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil futures fall, and exports decline. The domestic palm - oil inventory increases, and the price is under pressure [20]. - **Corn**: The price of Northeast corn is stable. The inventory of ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises is low, and the futures may repair the basis [20]. - **Hogs**: The live - hog price is stable and slightly strong. The market supply is in excess, and the futures price may continue to fall [20].

Report Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for different asset classes are as follows: - Index: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term shock, cautious long [2] - Commodity sectors: - Black metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Core Views - The global market is affected by the Fed's monetary policy expectations, domestic economic growth, and policy stimulus. The short - term upward drive of the macro - economy has weakened, and different asset classes show short - term shock characteristics. Attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2][3] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Overseas, the Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, and many thought it was not suitable to cut interest rates in December. The market expected no rate cut this year, leading to a rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's October economic data slowed down year - on - year and fell short of expectations, and the central bank restarted Treasury bond trading to release liquidity. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and the index will be in short - term shock [2] - Index: Driven by sectors such as precious metals, it rose slightly. Affected by economic data and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term upward drive has weakened, and it will be in short - term shock. Short - term cautious wait - and - see [3] - Precious metals: The market rose slightly at night on Wednesday. Affected by the Fed's possible inaction in December and the strong US dollar, short - term shock, long - term upward pattern remains. Short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures markets declined on Wednesday. Demand continued to weaken, inventory decreased, and production decreased. There are no new contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range [4][6] - Iron ore: The spot price fell slightly on Wednesday, and the futures price remained strong. The bottom of iron - making water production is uncertain, supply has changed slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [6] - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: The spot price was flat on Wednesday, and the futures price was affected by coal. Demand is still poor, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a range [7] - Soda ash: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply decreased marginally but remained loose, and demand improved marginally. Short - term range shock, long - term bearish [8] - Glass: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply was stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was at a high level. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rebounded slightly. Supply concerns still exist, but US and domestic inventories are high, and there is a risk of price decline [10] - Aluminum: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded. Technically, there may be room for further rebound, but inventory is at a three - year high, and there may be a large correction later [10] - Tin: Supply is tight, demand is weak, inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11] - Lithium carbonate: The main contract rose on Wednesday. The price of lithium ore increased, and the trading volume increased. Hold long positions cautiously [12] - Industrial silicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. The organic silicon industry plans to reduce emissions and support prices. Pay attention to the continuation of funds and buy on dips [12] - Polysilicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: EIA data showed an increase in US refined oil inventories, and the hope of restarting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a decline in oil prices. It is expected to remain under pressure [15] - Asphalt: The price remained low. Inventory was decreasing slightly, but demand was weak, and the over - supply pressure was high. Pay attention to the fluctuation of crude oil [15] - PX: The import from Japan is uncertain, and PTA demand provides some support. It is in a tight supply situation, and pay attention to cost changes [16] - PTA: The import of PX is uncertain, and downstream demand is weak. The supply is high, and the long - term bearish pressure is large [16] - Ethylene glycol: Port inventory has accumulated significantly, downstream demand is weakening, and the price is expected to remain low and fluctuate [16] - Short fiber: It rebounded slightly in the short term, but the later pressure is large. The terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and it can be shorted on highs in the medium term [17] Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The overnight market declined. Brazil's November export volume is expected to increase, and there is an export order to China [19] - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The supply and demand of domestic oil mills are loose, the basis is weak, and there may be a phased correction [19] - Soybean and rapeseed oil: The price was boosted by EPA biodiesel news. The supply of domestic soybean oil is strong, and rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [20] - Palm oil: The Malaysian futures market continued to rise, but domestic inventory increased, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [20] - Corn: The price in Northeast China remained stable. Inventory is low, and there is a willingness to buy in the market. The futures may repair the basis [20] - Live pigs: The morning price was stable and strong. Supply is excessive, and the futures may continue to decline [21]