1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Urea - Despite high daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline in daily output. The new export policy allows the release of supportive export orders from May to June, and the upcoming summer top - dressing season in May - June is expected to boost agricultural demand. Market price increases are likely to be cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [3]. Crude Oil - Oil prices continued to rise, driven by the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical uncertainties. In the short term, the market risk appetite has increased, but no strong trend has been formed yet, and the sustainability of the macro - drive needs to be observed. The monthly - line fluctuation ranges are adjusted to [57, 67] for WTI, [60, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [7]. Styrene - Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium term, putting pressure on chemical products. Pure benzene supply has decreased recently, but overall supply pressure remains due to imports. Styrene downstream demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for styrene, with the upper resistance for the near - term contract at 7300 [13]. PE and PP - For LLDPE, although imports are expected to decline significantly from May to June and supply pressure will gradually decrease, inventory pressure is still large under the situation of weak supply and demand, and there is a long - term downward risk. For PP, supply pressure eases slightly during the second - quarter maintenance season, but production is still high, demand is weakening, and there is also a long - term downward risk [17]. Caustic Soda - In the medium - to - long term, the demand for caustic soda from alumina is insufficient, and new production capacity is being added, so the supply - demand outlook is weak. In the short term, caustic soda is in the maintenance phase, and the price has been supported. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy, with the near - term resistance at 2550 [26]. PVC - The supply - demand surplus of PVC is prominent. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are mainly based on price - for - volume. The long - term surplus problem is difficult to solve, and the price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, but there is a risk of price rebound during the maintenance period [26]. Methanol - The inland valuation has a downward pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a stock - building period, and the MTO low - operation rate suppresses demand. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies [35][38]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Tight supply and short - term strong demand support its price, but the rebound space is limited. PX09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and PX9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread situation [40]. - PTA: The supply - demand pattern remains tight in the short term, and the price is expected to be relatively strong compared to oil prices, but the rebound is suppressed. TA09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and TA9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread and medium - term reverse spread situation [40]. - MEG: Domestic supply is expected to increase in May, but short - term de - stocking is expected due to high polyester load and reduced imports. EG09 is expected to be strong in the short term [40]. - Short - fiber: Inventory pressure is low in the short term, but the driving force is weaker than that of raw materials. The processing fee is under pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [40]. - Bottle - chip: Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. The processing fee is supported, and the main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - The prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all increased, with increases ranging from 0.22% to 1.26% [1]. Contract Spreads - The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01, and UR - MA main contracts changed, with changes ranging from - 16.00% to 44.83% [1]. Main Positions - The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, with the long positions increasing by 2.05% and the short positions increasing by 2.51%. The long - short ratio decreased slightly [1]. Upstream Raw Materials - Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, except for the port price of steam - coal in Qinhuangdao, which decreased by 0.78% [1]. Spot Market Prices - Spot prices in most regions increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 2.16% [1]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily production decreased slightly, with a 1.20% decline in domestic daily urea production. Weekly production increased slightly by 0.21%, and factory inventory decreased by 10.58% while port inventory increased by 12.71% [3]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 1.34%. Spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [7]. Product Prices and Spreads - Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 0.71%. Spreads also changed [7]. Crack Spreads - Crack spreads of various refined products changed, with increases ranging from 0.28% to 4.28% for some products and decreases for others [7]. Styrene Upstream - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 0.8% to 2.5%. The opening rates of domestic pure benzene and styrene increased [10][13]. Spot and Futures - The spot price of styrene in East China decreased slightly by 0.1%, while futures prices EB2506 and EB2507 increased by 1.0% and 1.1% respectively [11]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - Overseas quotes of styrene increased slightly, but the import profit decreased by 11.4% [12]. Industry Chain Inventory - Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports decreased, while inventories of some downstream products also changed [13]. PE and PP Prices and Spreads - PE and PP futures prices mostly decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed. Spot prices also decreased slightly [17]. Non - standard Prices - Most non - standard PE and PP prices decreased or remained stable [17]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - PE and PP device opening rates decreased, and downstream weighted opening rates also decreased slightly [17]. Inventory - PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, with increases of 38.99% and 19.76% respectively [17]. Caustic Soda and PVC Spot and Futures - For caustic soda, the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 0.7%. For PVC, the prices of some futures contracts changed, with increases or decreases [21]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 1.3%, and the FOB price of PVC in Tianjin decreased by 1.6% [22][23]. Supply - The opening rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased slightly [24]. Demand - The opening rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [25][26]. Inventory - The PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [26]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - Methanol futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and regional spreads also changed [35]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory and port inventory increased, and the weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [35]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise opening rate increased, and the downstream MTO device opening rate increased [35]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 1.0% to 2.5% [40]. PX - related - PX prices and spreads changed, with the CFR China PX price increasing by 0.9% [40]. PTA - related - PTA prices and spreads changed, and the processing fees of PTA also changed [40]. MEG - related - MEG prices and spreads changed, and the port inventory decreased slightly [40]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - Prices of POY, FDY, etc. increased, and cash flows and processing fees of polyester products also changed [40]. Industry Chain Opening Rates - Opening rates of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [40].

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月7日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月6日 | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7230 | 7273 | -43 | -0.59% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 6987 | 7083 | -96 | -1.36% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7105 | 7126 | -21 | -0.29% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | ୧୦୦୧ | 7041 | -46 | -0.65% | | | L2505-2509 | 243 | 190 | 53 | 27.89% | | | PP2505-2509 | 110 | 82 | 25 | 29.41% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7130 | 7200 | -70 | -0.97% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7230 | 7300 | -70 | -0.96% | | | 华北 ...

Report Date - The report is dated May 7, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views - The report provides an analysis of the soybean oil and palm oil markets, stating that soybean oil is in a process of bottom - seeking with oscillations and is relatively strong among varieties, while palm oil is short - term weak with support below [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 7,974 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.14%, closing price (night session) is 7,912 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.78%. Trading volume is 549,475 lots, an increase of 45,312 lots, and open interest is 367,565 lots, an increase of 20,597 lots [2] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 7,760 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.92%, closing price (night session) is 7,746 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.18%. Trading volume is 299,059 lots, an increase of 12,309 lots, and open interest is 583,917 lots, an increase of 1,935 lots [2] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,216 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.87%, closing price (night session) is 9,236 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22%. Trading volume is 299,742 lots, an increase of 9,457 lots, and open interest is 280,976 lots, an increase of 4,397 lots [2] Spot Data - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price is 8,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton [2] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Basis Data - Palm oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is 646 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is 380 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot basis is 54 yuan/ton [2] Spread Data - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread: 1,242 yuan/ton, compared to 1,149 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread: - 214 yuan/ton, compared to - 316 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Palm oil 5 - 9 spread: 456 yuan/ton, compared to 468 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread: 140 yuan/ton, compared to 150 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread: 24 yuan/ton, compared to 9 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - In Myanmar, the wholesale reference price of palm oil in the Yangon market dropped from 6,735 kyats per viss (about 1.5 kg) last week (April 28 - May 4) to 6,700 kyats per viss as of the week ending May 11. The Ministry of Commerce is taking measures to control prices. Myanmar's annual palm oil consumption is about 1 million tons, local production is about 400,000 tons, and it imports about 700,000 tons from Malaysia and Indonesia [3][4] - As of the week ending May 2, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.16 per bushel, a 5.3% decline from the previous week. The average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [4] - Brazilian farmers plan to expand the soybean planting area in the main planting areas by about 500,000 hectares in the 2025/26 season starting in September. The current - season soybean planting area reached a record 47.8 million hectares, and the harvest was 172.1 million tons [4] - From April 28 to May 2, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil, was 623.09 reais/ton, down from 643.31 reais/ton the previous week [5] - As of May 4, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.43 million tons (compared to 2.96 million tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 11.73 million tons (compared to 10.92 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 5.68 million tons (higher than 5 million tons last year) [5] - In 2024, Germany produced about 3.6 million tons of biodiesel, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year. Over half of the raw materials came from rapeseed, and about 1.45 million tons of rapeseed oil was processed into biodiesel, approximately equivalent to the 2024 rapeseed harvest [6] 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]

光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 4 月 3 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 764.0 | 763.0 | 1.0 | I05-I09 | 55.0 | 52.5 | 2.5 | | I09 | 709.0 | 710.5 | -1.5 | I09-I01 | 24.5 | 26.5 | -2.0 | | I01 | 684.5 | 684.0 | 0.5 | I01-I05 | -79.5 | -79.0 | -0.5 | 光期研究 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 0 ...