光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 7 月 1 8 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 731.0 | 721.5 | 9.5 | I05-I09 | -54.5 | -51.5 | -3.0 | | I09 | 785.5 | 773.0 | 12.5 | I09-I01 | 33.0 | 31.5 | 1.5 | | I01 | 752.5 | 741.5 | 11.0 | I01-I05 | 21.5 | 20.0 | 1.5 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 ...

Report Overview - The report is titled "Guangda Futures Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report", dated July 17, 2025, focusing on iron ore futures contracts, basis, and variety spreads [1] Futures Contracts - The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts are 721.5, 773.0, and 741.5 respectively, with changes of 3.0, 6.0, and 3.0 compared to the previous day [3] - The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 are -51.5, 31.5, and 20.0 respectively, with changes of -3.0, 3.0, and 0.0 compared to the previous day [3] Basis Data - The basis data of various iron ore varieties are presented, such as the basis of Carajás fines is 47 today, up 4 from the previous day, while the basis of PB fines is 27 today, down 2 from the previous day [6] Chart - Multiple charts show the basis trends of different iron ore varieties over time, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, etc [8][9][10] Variety Spreads Data - The variety spreads of different iron ore products are provided, for example, the spread of PB lump - PB fines is 150.0 today, up 6 from the previous day, and the spread of PB fines - mixed fines is 72.0 today, down 2 from the previous day [13] Chart - A series of charts illustrate the spread trends of different iron ore product combinations, like block - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder spreads, etc [16][19][20] Contract Adjustments - According to relevant regulations, the iron ore futures contract has been adjusted, including adding 4 deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) with brand premiums of 0 since the I2202 contract [11] - Adjusting the brand premiums of existing varieties, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest being 0 [11] - Modifying the quality differences and premiums of substitutes, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators and their corresponding premiums [11] - Adding 4 new deliverable brands (Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Wugang standard powder, SP10 powder) with brand premiums of 0 [11]

Summary of Conference Call on Steel Industry Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the steel industry, specifically focusing on the performance of rebar and other steel products in the market [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Trends**: - The steel market has shown fluctuations since January, with a small rebound followed by a decline, reaching a peak in mid-January before continuing to drop [1]. - A significant drop occurred around the Qingming Festival in April, attributed to market reactions to monetary policy discussions [2]. 2. **Impact of Policies**: - A meeting on May 8 proposed a package of monetary policies to support economic development, but the market's reaction was negative due to unmet expectations [2]. - Positive developments in US-China tariff negotiations led to a brief market rebound, but the overall market remains influenced by weak capital conditions and high supply [2][4]. 3. **Current Market Conditions**: - The current state of the rebar market is described as weak, with prices supported but not significantly increasing due to high supply and average demand [3][4]. - Steel mills are reportedly operating with a small profit margin of approximately 50 to 100 yuan per ton [3]. 4. **Future Outlook**: - The market is expected to remain weak unless there are significant changes in supply or demand dynamics [4]. - Potential for further declines in prices is anticipated due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, particularly in late May and June [4]. 5. **Research Framework**: - The analysis framework includes macroeconomic factors, industry analysis, and technical analysis, emphasizing the importance of understanding macro trends in guiding market movements [6][8][9]. 6. **Economic Indicators**: - Key economic indicators such as GDP growth, CPI, and PPI are essential for assessing the economic environment and its impact on the steel industry [10][11]. 7. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - The relationship between supply, demand, and inventory levels is crucial, with a noted correlation between demand increases and inventory decreases [17][18]. - Current policies in the steel industry aim to limit production capacity and control crude steel output, impacting supply levels [19][20]. 8. **Investment Trends**: - Fixed asset investment in the black metal industry is influenced by market outlook; positive expectations lead to increased investment, while negative outlooks result in contraction [21]. 9. **Profitability and Production**: - Profit levels significantly affect production decisions; higher profits encourage production, while lower profits lead to reduced output [22][23]. - The profitability of different steel products varies, with hot-rolled steel showing better margins compared to rebar [23]. 10. **Demand Segments**: - The demand for steel is primarily driven by the real estate sector, infrastructure projects, and manufacturing, with current trends indicating a decline in real estate demand [25][26][27]. - Infrastructure investment growth is slowing, and while manufacturing investment remains stable, it is subject to external pressures such as tariffs [30][31]. 11. **Export Dynamics**: - Export volumes are expected to decrease from 11 million tons to 9 million tons, reflecting a competitive pricing environment and external tariff pressures [32]. 12. **Seasonal Trends**: - Seasonal demand patterns are noted, with specific months historically showing increased demand for steel products [34]. Additional Important Content - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding the interplay between macroeconomic policies, industry-specific factors, and technical market indicators in making informed investment decisions [8][9][10]. - The need for continuous monitoring of inventory levels and production costs is emphasized, as these factors directly influence pricing and market stability [15][33].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - I05 closed at 718.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan from the previous day [3] - I09 closed at 767.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3] - I01 closed at 738.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan from the previous day [3] 1.2 Futures Contract Spreads - I05 - I09 spread was -48.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3] - I09 - I01 spread was 28.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [3] - I01 - I05 spread was 20.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan from the previous day [3] 2. Basis Data 2.1 Basis Numerical Data - For different iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines (卡粉), BRBF, Newman fines, etc., the report provides today's price, previous day's price, price change, delivery cost, today's basis, previous day's basis, and basis change [6] 2.2 Basis Charts - Charts show the basis trends of different iron ore varieties including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, domestic ores, etc. from October 2024 to June 2025 [8][9][10] 3. Exchange Rule Adjustments 3.1 Adjustment of Deliverable Brands and Premiums - Added 4 deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) with brand premiums of 0 yuan/ton starting from the I2202 contract [11] - Adjusted the brand premiums of existing varieties, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest 0 yuan/ton [11] - Added 4 more deliverable brands (Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, SP10 fines) with brand premiums of 0 yuan/ton [11] 3.2 Adjustment of Substitute Quality Differences and Premiums - Adjusted the allowable range of iron grade to be greater than or equal to 56%, and set the allowable ranges for silicon dioxide, aluminum oxide, phosphorus, and sulfur [11] - Introduced a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium of iron element index (X), with different values of X corresponding to different price ranges of the settlement price of the nearest delivery month contract [11] 4. Variety Spreads 4.1 Variety Spread Numerical Data - The report provides the spreads between different iron ore varieties such as PB lump - PB fines, Newman lump - Newman fines, Carajás fines - Newman fines, etc., along with their changes from the previous day [13] 4.2 Variety Spread Charts - Charts show the spread trends of different iron ore varieties including block - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder spreads, medium - low grade powder spreads, etc. [15][17][19] 5. Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the industry [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - Urea: The recent decline in the futures market is due to weak domestic demand, with summer agricultural demand weakening and industrial demand affected by high temperatures. Although export quotas are being implemented, the second - batch quota has not circulated, so the domestic supply - demand imbalance persists, and the futures market may face pressure in the short term [6]. - Methanol: The inland market's maintenance has peaked, and production is expected to increase in late July. The port market faces dual pressures, with expected arrivals of 125 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO, which will reduce ethylene demand. It is expected that the port will experience a slight inventory build - up in July, but the absolute inventory is low, with limited upside and downside, suggesting interval operations [9]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: In July, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is improving, but high import expectations and high port inventories limit its upward momentum. Downstream price transmission is poor, restricting its rebound. It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. For styrene, high industry profits have led to high - level operations, but some downstream losses and high finished - product inventories have led to production cuts. Supply - demand is expected to weaken, and short - term basis may face pressure [11]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: The caustic soda spot market is generally stable, with some downstream demand support. There is an upward price expectation in the peak season. The PVC market has shown signs of a pull - back after a rise. The supply - demand pattern is in a off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with weak procurement enthusiasm. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. - Crude Oil: Overnight oil prices fluctuated within a range. The macro - risk has eased, and the short - term supply concern has dissipated. Although China's refinery operating rate has reached a 10 - month high, it is overshadowed by macro - negatives. Short - term band strategies are recommended, and options can capture opportunities from increased volatility [24]. - Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP): Both PP and PE show a supply contraction, with compressed weighted profits and marginal profit repair. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, with inventory accumulation and weak apparent demand. In July, the supply pressure is not significant, and inventory reduction has improved. Unilateral strategies suggest interval operations, and LP250 can be taken as a profit - taking point for arbitrage [43]. - Polyester Industry Chain: For PX, the supply - demand is expected to remain tight, but the upward rebound is under pressure. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price rebound is limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand is turning to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee repair space is limited. For bottle - chips, the supply - demand has an improvement expectation, but the absolute price follows the cost [47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On July 15, the 01, 05, 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all declined compared to July 14, with the 09 contract having the largest decline of 1.87% [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread of 01 - 05 contract decreased by 128.57% [2]. - **Main Positions**: The number of long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3.47%, while the number of short positions increased by 4.39% [3]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Spot prices in most regions declined, with the largest decline of 3.72% in Northeast China [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Daily production remained stable, while weekly production increased by 1.12%. Factory and port inventories changed, with factory inventory decreasing by 4.99% and port inventory increasing by 10.98% [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The MA2601 and MA2509 contract prices declined on July 15 compared to July 14. The inventory of methanol enterprises, ports, and society all increased [9]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.11%, while some downstream operating rates changed, with the water - coal slurry operating rate increasing by 1.69% [9]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of related products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha declined on July 15 compared to July 14. The pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some links in the pure benzene and styrene industry chains changed slightly, with the Asian pure benzene operating rate decreasing by 0.1% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products were mostly stable on July 15, with some minor declines in futures prices [15]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB East China port price of caustic soda decreased by 3.8%, and the export profit decreased significantly. The export profit of PVC increased slightly [16][17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates changed slightly, and the demand - side operating rates of downstream industries also changed [18][19][20]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, Brent crude oil declined by 0.72%, WTI increased by 0.54%, and SC decreased by 1.26%. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [24]. - **Refining Spreads**: The refining spreads of various refined products changed, with the European diesel refining spread increasing by 4.89% [24]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all declined on July 15 compared to July 14. Spot prices also decreased slightly [43]. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: The operating rates of PE and PP production and downstream industries changed slightly, and inventories increased [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha declined on July 15 compared to July 14. Downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [47]. - **Supply - Demand and Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain changed, with the PTA operating rate increasing by 2.6% and the polyester bottle - chip operating rate decreasing by 4.7% [47].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Light Period Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: July 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Price and Spread - **Price Changes**: I05 closed at 689.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 733.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; I01 closed at 707.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of I05 - I09 remained unchanged at -43.5 yuan/ton; I09 - I01 decreased by 1.0 yuan to 26.0 yuan/ton; I01 - I05 increased by 1.0 yuan to 17.5 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Basis Data - **Price and Basis Changes**: Various iron ore varieties showed different price and basis changes. For example, the price of Carajás fines (卡粉) increased by 2.0 yuan to 815 yuan/ton, with the basis remaining unchanged at 34 yuan; the price of Macarthur River fines (麦克粉) increased by 3.0 yuan to 708 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to 30 yuan [6]. Group 4: Variety Spread - **Spread Changes**: Many variety spreads changed. For instance, the spread of PB lump - PB fines decreased by 1.0 yuan to 148.0 yuan/ton; the spread of FMG mixed fines - Super Special fines increased by 2.0 yuan to 48.0 yuan/ton [13]. Group 5: Rule Adjustments - **Adjustments to Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties (本钢精粉, IOC6, KUMBA, 乌克兰精粉) were added, and the brand premium for all was set to 0, effective from the I2202 contract. Four more varieties (太钢精粉, 马钢精粉, 五矿标准粉, SP10粉) were added as deliverable brands with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton, applicable to I2312 and subsequent contracts [11]. - **Brand Premium Adjustments**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, while other deliverable brands have a premium of 0 yuan/ton [11]. - **Quality Difference and Premium Adjustments**: The allowable range of iron grade was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges for other elements were set. A dynamic adjustment mechanism for the iron element premium (X) was introduced [11]. Group 6: Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience in the steel and futures industries [26].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for coke is broad - range fluctuations [1] - The investment rating for coking coal is leading by expectation and broad - range fluctuations [2] Group 2: Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamental data, price, and position information of coking coal and coke, including futures prices, spot prices, basis, and spreads, to assist in understanding the market trends of these two commodities [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: JM2509 closed at 891 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (1.02%); J2509 closed at 1424.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.14%). JM2509 had a trading volume of 723,095 lots and a position of 544,987 lots, with a decrease of 4,404 lots; J2509 had a trading volume of 16,389 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: There were no changes in most spot prices of coking coal and coke, but some showed minor fluctuations. For example, the price of Fengjing converted to RMB decreased by 4 yuan/ton, and the cost of Meng3 warehouse receipt increased by 21 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of coking coal and coke also showed certain changes. For instance, the basis of JM2509 for Meng5 decreased by 52.0 yuan/ton, and the basis of J2509 for Shanxi quasi - first arrival price decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton [2] Price and Position - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: The ex - warehouse prices of coking coal in northern ports were as follows: 1250 yuan/ton for Shanxi coking coal in Jingtang Port, 1215 yuan/ton for Australian coking coal in Qingdao Port, 1215 yuan/ton in Lianyungang Port, 1130 yuan/ton in Rizhao Port, and 1205 yuan/ton in Tianjin Port [2] - **July 8th Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index**: The price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu increased by 15 yuan/ton; the price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Meng5) in Shaheyi increased by 4 yuan/ton; the price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Meng3) in Shaheyi increased by 21 yuan/ton [3] - **Position Situation**: On July 8th, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 4,491 lots, and the short positions decreased by 5,293 lots; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract increased by 180 lots, and the short positions decreased by 59 lots [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [4]

2025 年 7 月 3 日 品 研 究 焦炭：反内卷信号发酵，震荡偏强 焦煤：反内卷信号发酵，震荡偏强 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 漆跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 843.5 | 29 | 3.56% | | | | J2509 | 1442 | 53.5 | 3. 85% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1189983 | 529227 | -35195 | | | | J2509 | 30166 | 49728 | 162 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1180 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1170 | 涨跌(元/吨) 10 | | | 焦煤 | 全泉蒙5精煤自提价 吕梁低硫主焦 | 934 1128 | 934 1113 | 0 15 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - USDA planting area report and quarterly inventory report adjustments are limited, with an overall neutral impact [8] - The US soybean supply and demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation, and the CBOT US soybean futures and domestic soybean meal futures are more sensitive to the weather in US production areas [8] - Under the current China - US tariff policy, domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter, supporting the expected gradual increase of the soybean meal futures price center. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for the far - month M01 contract [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) on July 1st, the basis in Dalian is - 11, in Rizhao is - 81, in Tianjin is - 41, in Zhangjiagang is - 121, in Dongguan is - 111, in Zhanjiang is - 111, and in Fangcheng is - 111 [6] - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is - 96, with a decline of - 54 [6] - The M9 - M1 spread and M9 - RM9 spread are presented, and the RM9 - 1 spread has values such as 280, 1200, etc. in different periods [6][7] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 375, with a decline of - 14, and the main - contract price difference is 360 [7] 3.2 Exchange Rate, Profit, and Premium Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 7.1122, and the E - type soybean import premium is 111.00 cents per bushel [7] - The import soybean futures gross profit is 232 yuan per ton, with no change [7] 3.3 Inventory Data - Information on China's port soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2020 - 2025 is presented [7] 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In June, July, and August in China, the expected arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is over 10 million tons per month. The new - crop US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is tight, with the US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropping to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US soybean - growing areas will be favorable for growth in the next two weeks [7] - Demand: Pig supply is expected to increase steadily before November, poultry inventory remains high, soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, feed addition ratio increases, and提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein [7][8] - Inventory: As of last Friday, domestic soybeans and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a historical high for the same period, while soybean meal inventory is at a historical low, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days continue to rise [8]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 2025/7/1 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2280 4 0.18% 13,931 -30.94% 115,285 0.96% 2304 0 0.00% 2,522 -41.03% 18,817 2.24% 2383 5 0.21% 426,304 -12.30% 942,750 -2.86% 2678 5 0.19% 2,056 213.41% 5,028 10.14% 2698 7 0.26% 52 -30.77% 221 6.25% 2743 10 0.36% 107,836 -11.75% 156,387 -0.32% 青冈 嘉吉生化 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 2300 2090 2550 2490 2400 2510 2470 10 0 -12 -40 10 0 0 -83 -293 167 107 17 127 87 龙凤 中粮 嘉吉 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2800 2850 2850 3020 2950 2980 2960 0 50 0 ...