低利率时代

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低利率时代“稳中求进”,华夏 6 个月持有期债券开辟闲钱理财新航道
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-08-11 03:09
近期,A股市场多轮驱动的特征尤为显著,从高景气的算力板块、创新药再到周期行业,多个占优 主线交替上涨,带动大势上行。在震荡走强的过程中回望,刚过去的半年,市场最重要的特征其实 是"复杂"——面对百年变局叠加的宏观环境,全球经济格局正经历着前所未有的结构性震荡。而面对强 烈的结构性机会,追求确定性可能导致错失良机,盲目冒进则可能在纷繁的局面中加大风险。如何切入 市场,实现资产配置的稳健性与收益性,成为投资者日益关心的焦点问题。华夏6个月持有期债券(A 类:024296 / C类:024297)于8月4日重磅发售,作为一款权益投资策略追求稳健的二级债基,为投资 者提供了一个"进可攻,退可守"的资产配置新选择。 近年来,全球主要经济体的央行迫于通胀放缓与经济增长压力,纷纷采取宽松货币政策;与此同 时,我国在向高质量发展模式转型的过程中,经济潜在增速放缓,10年期国债利率中枢逐步下移——各 经济体似乎都难逃低利率的"引力"。截至2025年7月21日,中国10年期国债收益率已降至1.68%,在窄幅 波动中凸显出债市作为避险资产的独特魅力。与此同时,A股市场在指数震荡中延续结构性行情,赚钱 效应下市场风险偏好提升,但面对 ...
低利率时代财富管理突围:招行与生态合作伙伴共议155万亿市场新机遇
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-08-08 10:30
8月7日,招商银行(600036)在深圳隆重举办"财富启新程 湾区共潮生——2025财富合作伙伴论坛"。 本次论坛适逢深圳经济特区建立45周年,吸引了来自基金、理财、保险、私募、信托等领域的头部机构 代表齐聚粤港澳大湾区,共同探讨大财富管理行业的高质量发展路径。 招商银行行长王良在开幕致辞中指出,截至2024年末,我国资产管理规模已达155万亿元,位居全球第 二。市场普遍预测中国财富资管市场仍将保持每年8—10%的强劲增长,全球影响力、吸引力也将进一 步增强。平衡好收益性、安全性与流动性的关系,为投资者创设风险较低、收益稳定的产品,将是优秀 财富资管机构的巨大机遇。 论坛聚焦行业发展的关键议题,包括在低利率环境下如何平衡收益与风险、如何满足客户日益多元化的 财富管理需求、如何把握AI技术带来的变革机遇等核心问题。与会专家普遍认为,中国财富管理行业 正面临重要的转型期,需要从规模扩张转向质量提升,从产品销售转向综合服务。 低利率时代财富管理新范式 当前,我国已进入低利率周期。自2021年以来,我国10年期国债收益率已从3.2%左右下降至1.7%左 右,这一趋势预计将持续较长时间。王良在演讲中特别指出,低利率环境 ...
低利率时代,“收息”生活靠什么?
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-08-07 10:23
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by individuals, particularly retirees, in generating income from traditional "income-generating assets" due to declining interest rates and rental yields, leading to a shift towards dividend-paying stocks and dividend index funds as viable investment options [1][6]. Group 1: Current Income-Generating Assets - Bank deposit rates have significantly decreased, with a three-year fixed deposit rate currently at 1.25%, down from 2.6% three years ago, resulting in a drop in interest income from 78,000 to under 38,000 for a 1 million deposit [1][3]. - Money market funds are yielding around 1% annually based on recent calculations, indicating a low return for idle cash [3]. - Government bonds, such as the three-year savings bond issued in July, offer a coupon rate of 1.63%, while five-year bonds yield 1.7% [3]. - Rental yields in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are relatively low, at 2.10%, 1.93%, 1.90%, and 1.62% respectively, making real estate less attractive for income generation [3]. Group 2: Shift to Dividend Assets - Investors are increasingly turning to high-dividend stocks as a response to low interest rates and unsatisfactory rental returns, as dividends provide tangible returns on investment [3][6]. - Dividend yield is defined as the ratio of a company's dividend payout to its stock price, with higher dividends leading to higher yields [3]. - For instance, a stock with a 5% dividend yield would provide 50,000 in dividends for a 1 million investment, significantly outperforming traditional income sources [3]. Group 3: Dividend Index Funds - Many investors find it challenging to select individual stocks with stable and high dividends, leading to a preference for dividend index funds, which offer a more straightforward investment approach [4][5]. - Dividend index funds, such as the E Fund (515180) tracking the China Securities Dividend Index, select companies with a history of consistent dividends, with the index yielding 4.5% as of July [5]. - Other dividend index funds, like the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) and the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (563020), also report yields in the range of 4% to 6%, significantly higher than traditional deposit rates [5][6]. Group 4: Investor Strategies - Investors like the character Wang Ayi are opting to allocate part of their savings into dividend index funds to achieve stable and higher returns [6]. - Another investor, Zhang, diversifies his investments across multiple dividend funds to ensure monthly cash flow from dividends, reflecting a strategic approach to income generation [6][9].
泰康养老偿付能力五连涨至 254% 低利率时代下如何“稳”字当头?
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-08-04 05:48
Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry in China is facing dual pressure from declining long-term interest rates and regulatory constraints, leading to a heightened focus on solvency as a key indicator of financial health and operational stability [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Environment - The implementation of the "Second Generation Solvency II" rules has made solvency ratios and risk comprehensive ratings the "gold standard" for assessing insurance companies' risk management capabilities [2]. - Insurance companies are encouraged to enhance solvency through internal governance optimization, risk management strengthening, and business structure adjustments rather than relying solely on external financing [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - TaiKang Pension achieved a comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of 254.20% and a core solvency adequacy ratio of 156.55% by Q2 2025, both indicators showing continuous growth over five consecutive quarters [1]. - As of Q1 2025, the average solvency adequacy ratio for life insurance companies was 196.6%, with a core solvency adequacy ratio of 132.8%, indicating that TaiKang Pension is performing above regulatory benchmarks [1]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - In H1 2025, TaiKang Pension's total assets exceeded 140 billion, with a net profit of 422 million, reflecting significant year-on-year growth [2]. - The new business value of commercial annuities increased to 67.90%, while standard premium income accounted for 76.10%, with future policy surplus growing by 10.5% year-on-year [2]. Group 4: Claims and Service Efficiency - TaiKang Pension served 1.108 million claim clients in H1 2025, with total claims amounting to 4.25 billion, achieving a daily average payout of 25.58 million and a claim approval rate of 99.9% [2]. - The average claim processing time was 1.6 days, with 87.2% of claims processed through self-service, demonstrating the effectiveness of digital and intelligent systems in enhancing service efficiency [3]. Group 5: Industry Insights - Analysts note that TaiKang Pension's experience in optimizing business structure, strengthening asset-liability matching, and improving investment efficiency serves as a reference model for the industry amid low interest rates and stringent regulations [3]. - The ongoing challenge for the insurance industry will be to balance risk management with business expansion while enhancing long-term investment returns [3].
银行理财热度有望延续
Shen Zhen Shang Bao· 2025-08-04 02:08
中信证券首席经济学家明明更是提出,今年全年整体银行理财规模有望达到33万亿元以上。 对于普通投资者而言,是否可以持续买入银行理财?王蓬博表示,现今购买银行理财产品依然是一个不 错的选择,不仅能够实现资产的稳健增长,而且还能有效分散投资风险。对于普通投资者而言,应该根 据自身的风险承受能力、投资期限等因素综合考虑,选择适合自己的理财产品。 素喜智研高级研究员苏筱芮指出,低利率时代,投资者可根据自身的流动性、风险偏好来选择合适的银 行理财产品,重点关注理财机构的运营水平、理财产品的长期表现等。 不过,最近股市行情赚钱效应明显提升,记者观察到,不少银行的大额存单都在近期出现了明显的"转 让潮"。 对此,武泽伟指出,当前A股行情火热,不过依然处于牛市早期阶段,虽然有部分大额存单转移的现 象,但尚未观察到场外资金大规模向A股转移,而且银行理财本身是低风险资金,一般来说只有A股呈 现出非常明显的赚钱效应才会转移。因此,现阶段来看,他认为A股行情对银行理财影响不大。 博通咨询首席分析师王蓬博在接受记者采访时也表示,预计银行理财将继续保持较高的热度,虽然随着 股市行情的好转,部分资金可能会被吸引至股票市场,但是鉴于银行理财产 ...
关注现金流ETF(159399)投资机会,自由现金流复利或成低利率时代核心资产
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-31 09:17
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment opportunity in cash flow ETFs (159399) as a core asset in a low interest rate environment, highlighting the importance of stable free cash flow as a financial foundation for sustained economic growth [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - In a low interest rate environment, the compounding effect of stable free cash flow becomes crucial for long-term economic performance [1] - The market's pricing logic is shifting towards the accumulation of cash flow rather than front-end expansion due to changes in economic operation models [1] - Free cash flow assets rely on controllable capital expenditures, cost management, and efficient operating capital, allowing for substantial cash flow generation even with zero profit growth [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - The article identifies three main sectors for dividend value investments: 1. Leading consumer demand sectors (e.g., liquor, dining, home appliances) 2. Cyclical resource products (benefiting from supply contraction and price elasticity) 3. Low dividend yield varieties (e.g., electricity, banking) - These sectors are considered to have long-term allocation value due to their low valuation levels [1] Group 3: ETF Overview - The cash flow ETF (159399) tracks the FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index (888888), which selects A-share companies with high free cash flow yield and good financial health from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] - The index aims to reflect the overall performance of Chinese A-share listed companies with robust cash flow characteristics across multiple industries [1]
华源晨会精粹20250730-20250730
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-07-30 13:27
Fixed Income - The bank wealth management market's existing scale reached 30.67 trillion yuan as of H1 2025, an increase of 0.72 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, surpassing the average change of -0.13 trillion yuan from H1 2021 to H1 2024 [2][7][8] - The average annualized yield of wealth management products weakened in H1 2025, with an average yield of 2.12%, down 0.53 percentage points from the entire year of 2024 [9][10] - The market is expected to stabilize above 30 trillion yuan in H2 2025, with a focus on long-term municipal investment bonds and capital bonds [10] New Consumption - Maternal and Infant Industry - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to stimulate the maternal and infant industry, with the market size projected to reach 76,299 billion yuan in 2024 and 89,149 billion yuan by 2027 [12][13] - The birth population in China is expected to increase to 9.54 million in 2024, marking a rise of 520,000 from 2023, the first increase since 2017 [13] - The policy aims to alleviate family burdens and enhance birth rates, benefiting sectors such as dairy products, education and training, and infant care [13] New Consumption - Investment Opportunities - The high-end beauty sector is expected to grow faster than the mass market, with projected CAGR of 9.6% for skincare and 10.8% for makeup from 2023 to 2028 [14][15] - The ancient gold market shows strong growth potential, with a CAGR of 21.8% expected from 2023 to 2028 [15][16] - The current beverage market is seeing a rise in ready-to-drink products, with the market size for ready-to-drink beverages reaching 5,175 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market [16][17] Medical Devices - Kaili Medical - Kaili Medical is positioned as a leader in ultrasound and endoscopy equipment, with new product launches expected to enhance market penetration [19][20] - The company has expanded its workforce significantly, preparing for a recovery in the medical device sector, with procurement activities showing signs of normalization [20][21] - Revenue forecasts for Kaili Medical indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 2.388 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 3.224 billion yuan by 2027 [21] Transportation - YTO Express - YTO Express reported a revenue of 5.53 billion yuan in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, with a business volume growth of 19.34% [23][24] - The express delivery market is experiencing structural growth, with YTO's business volume growth outpacing overall market growth [24][25] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve profitability in the express delivery sector, with YTO's net profit per ticket projected to increase significantly [25][26]
解码招商“固收+”:净值新高背后的多元资产焕新
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 11:54
近期,有一批"固收+"基金净值创下新高,也算是风水轮流转了。过去三年中, "含权量"更高的"固收+",多少有点活在纯债基金的阴影下。 然而,从长期来说,股票资产的隐含收益率还是要高于债券。当理财收益持续下行,"固收+"或成为应对低利率时代的一个解法。 "固收+"有很多流派,堪称百花齐放。但其中最值得关注的,仍是几家固收大厂的解题思路。道理很简单,"固收+"终究是以固收为基础,大厂往往已经建 立了完善的信评体系,是银行理财替代需求浪潮中的核心力量。 以招商基金为例,这家固收大厂在发挥固收投资优势的基础上,近年来在"+"端也持续焕新升级,多元资产投资团队完善壮大,为增厚收益提供更多元化 的可能。 "固收+"产品本身是一种攻守兼备的基金,最大的价值是为投资者提供某种风险收益较为平衡的解决方案。其理想状态是比权益基金波动小,在收益方面 则能跑赢纯债基金。 2025年上半年末,居民部门存款162.03万亿元人民币,比年初又增加了5万亿。这是一个看似很矛盾的场景——一面是存款利率的不断下降,另外一面却 是居民存款的持续增长。其背景是权益市场持续震荡超3年,投资者风险偏好显著下降,风险规避情绪达到阶段性高峰。 招商瑞文A的 ...
中国银行业理财市场半年报告(2025年上)点评:30万亿的理财市场有何新特点?
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-07-30 05:43
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The scale of wealth management products has returned to 30 trillion yuan, and it is expected to remain stable above 30 trillion in the second half of 2025. The scale of hybrid products is expected to continue to rise. [2] - The number and scale of wealth management products of bank institutions have decreased significantly, and the market is concentrating towards wealth management companies. It is expected that by the end of 2026, the wealth management market will continue to shift to wealth management companies. [2] - In the first half of 2025, wealth management products increased their allocation of public - offering funds and reduced their allocation of bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit. The proportion of public - offering funds may continue to increase in the second half of the year. [2] - In the low - interest - rate era, the average yield of wealth management products has weakened, and the performance comparison benchmark of newly issued products of wealth management companies has continued to decline. [2] - The bond market may not have a trending market in the second half of 2025. It is recommended to focus on certain types of bonds and conduct interval trading. [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Wealth Management Product Scale - As of H1 2025, the scale of the bank wealth management market was 30.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.72 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024. The scale of cash - management products was 6.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.9 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, and the proportion dropped from 24.4% to 20.87%. The scales of fixed - income (excluding cash), hybrid, and equity wealth management products were 23.4 trillion, 0.8 trillion, and 0.1 trillion yuan respectively, with proportions of 76.3%, 2.5%, and 0.2% respectively, increasing by 3.38 pct, 0.07 pct, and 0.02 pct respectively compared to the end of 2024. [2] - It is expected that the scale of wealth management products in the second half of 2025 may remain stable above 30 trillion yuan. [2] 3.2 Market Concentration - By the end of H1 2025, there were 226 wealth management institutions in the market, including 194 bank institutions and 32 wealth management companies, a decrease of 24 and an increase of 1 (Zheshang Bank Wealth Management) compared to the end of the previous year respectively. [2] - In terms of the number of products in existence, there were 13,900 products of bank institutions and 27,900 products of wealth management companies, a decrease of 2,100 and an increase of 3,600 respectively compared to the end of the previous year. [2] - In terms of the scale of products in existence, the scales of bank institutions and wealth management companies were 3.19 trillion and 27.48 trillion yuan respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 24.0% and + 13.0%. [2] 3.3 Asset Allocation - From the end of 2024 to H1 2025, the scales of bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased from 13.03 trillion and 4.31 trillion yuan to 12.82 trillion and 4.23 trillion yuan respectively. The allocation ratio of interest - rate bonds increased from 2.33% to 3.01%, and the scale reached 0.99 trillion yuan in H1 2025. The allocation ratio of credit bonds decreased from 41.11% to 38.79%, and the scale reached 12.79 trillion yuan in H1 2025. The allocation of public - offering funds increased significantly by 0.42 trillion yuan (the proportion in H1 2025 was 4.2%, an increase of 1.3 pct compared to the end of 2024) to 1.29 trillion yuan. [2] - The proportions of cash and bank deposits and non - standard debt assets in H1 2025 were 24.8% and 5.5% respectively, an increase of 0.9 pct and 0.1 pct respectively compared to the end of 2024. [2] 3.4 Product Yield - The annualized yield of wealth management products has been declining since H1 2023. In the first half of 2025, the average annualized yield of wealth management products was 2.12%, a decrease of 0.53 pct compared to the full - year yield in 2024. [2] - According to Puyi Standard, the performance comparison benchmark of newly issued products of wealth management companies has continued to decline, from 3.21% in Q1 2024 to 2.56% in Q2 2025, and it is expected that the lower limit of the benchmark may reach 2.0%. [2] 3.5 Bond Market Outlook - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term, expecting the 10 - year Treasury bond yield to return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, it is recommended to focus on certain types of bonds such as urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance subordinated bonds. [2] - It is predicted that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and there may not be a trending market. The possibility of a significant bear market in the bond market is low, and it is also difficult for the bond market to have a significant bull market. It is recommended to conduct interval trading. [2]
债券指数基金2025年Q2跟踪与展望:规模与丰富度双升
HTSC· 2025-07-29 13:57
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In Q2 2025, the scale and quantity of bond index funds (including ETFs) both increased, with the total scale exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan. Bond ETFs were the main force in the growth of bond index funds, and the expansion of credit bond ETFs, especially benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs, was particularly significant. Meanwhile, the underlying asset categories and duration structures of bond index funds became more balanced and diversified, and the细分 strategies of index funds such as credit bonds and financial bonds also became more abundant [1]. - With the expansion of index bond fund varieties, increased policy support, and the deepening of the entry process of pension funds into the market, domestic bond index funds (including ETFs) are expected to achieve accelerated development through policy guidance and product innovation [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Bond Index Funds are Entering the Fast - Lane of Development - In Q2 2025, the scale and quantity of bond index funds (including ETFs) both increased. The total scale reached 1.55 trillion yuan, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of over 300 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 25%, contributing 36% of the total bond fund's quarter - on - quarter increase. Year - on - year, it increased by more than 560 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 57%, contributing 180% of the bond fund's year - on - year increase. The number of bond index funds (excluding 10 Sci - tech innovation bond ETFs) reached 343, an increase of 13 from the previous quarter [11]. - Bond ETFs were the main force in the growth of bond index funds. By the end of Q2 2025, the total scale of bond ETFs reached 38.44 billion yuan, with a quarter - on - quarter growth of 76% and a year - on - year growth of 250%, contributing more than half of the bond index fund's increase. As of July 23, 2025, the total scale of bond ETFs exceeded 500 billion yuan. Among them, 10 Sci - tech innovation bond ETFs exceeded 10 billion yuan in just 5 trading days after their listing on July 17 [13]. - In terms of the structure, Southern Fund, GF Fund, and Fullgoal Fund ranked in the top three in terms of the total scale of pure - bond index fund products (excluding convertible bond products) under each institution. After including 2 convertible bond ETF products, Bosera Fund, Southern Fund, and GF Fund ranked in the top three, all with a scale of over 100 billion yuan. In terms of increments, the scale of Haifutong's pure - bond index products increased the most in Q2, mainly due to the rapid expansion of its short - term financing ETF products [16]. The Product Line of Bond Index Funds is Becoming More Abundant Underlying Asset Categories - For bond index funds (excluding ETFs), the main investment directions are policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit. However, since Q2, credit bond index funds have expanded significantly, with their scale exceeding that of inter - bank certificate of deposit - type products for the first time, ranking second. In addition, the proportions of financial bond and comprehensive bond index fund products have also increased slightly [5]. - For bond ETFs, the scale of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs exceeded that of policy - financial bonds in Q2, becoming the largest sub - category. As of Q2 2025, the scale of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs exceeded 220 billion yuan, accounting for over 30% [28]. Duration Structure - For bond index funds (excluding ETFs), the 1 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year maturity segments had a higher proportion, and the proportion of the scale of the over - 5 - year maturity segment increased significantly since Q2. By the end of Q2 2025, the proportions of the 1 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year maturity segments of index bond funds were 30% and 42% respectively, and the proportion of the over - 5 - year maturity segment increased by about 5 percentage points to 16% [32]. - For bond ETFs, previously, the 1 - 3 - year segment was the main one. Since Q2, the proportion of the 3 - 5 - year segment has increased significantly, mainly due to the expansion of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs. The weighted average duration of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs is between 3 - 4 years. The expansion of benchmark market - making credit ETFs has led to the proportion of 3 - 5 - year bond ETFs increasing from about 5% in Q1 to 40% [32]. Sub - Strategies - The sub - strategies and types of index funds such as credit bonds and financial bonds have become more diverse, covering multiple sub - themes such as investment - grade, green theme/ESG, and regional. Among the 13 newly - added bond index funds in Q2, 5 belong to credit bond index funds (including financial bonds) and cover multiple sub - themes [42]. Future Development Ideas for Bond Index Funds Future Development Space for Bond Index Funds - Referring to the experience of overseas mature markets such as the United States, the domestic bond index funds (including ETFs) are expected to achieve accelerated development through policy guidance and product innovation. The current scale of domestic bond index funds is at a relatively low level compared with that in the United States, and there is broad development space [47][48]. Development Ideas for Bond Index Funds - Layout comprehensive bond index funds. Currently, there is a gap in on - exchange comprehensive products in China, while in the United States, they were developed earliest and have the largest scale [6]. - Enrich the duration supply, such as increasing the supply of long - duration varieties such as local bonds over 10 years and credit bonds over 5 years [6]. - Refine the sub - strategies and types of credit products, such as focusing on ESG sub - fields, climate change themes, and Sci - tech innovation bonds to enrich the strategy levels [6]. - Link to overseas bond index funds, such as Southbound Connect bond index funds [6]. - Deepen the development of cross - market bond ETFs and active bond ETFs [6].