银河研究 金融期货研发报告 金融期货年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 稳中有进 开启慢牛 ——股指期货 2025 年中策略报告 报告摘要： 2025 上半年市场两次经受住了考验，分别在政策预期、资金支撑下实现探底反弹，形 成快跌慢涨的慢牛走势，底部不断抬高。 一行一局一会两度联合新闻发布会，坚强有力的表态表明管理层稳定股市的信心和决 心，下半年政策环境持续稳定，股指也将表现稳定。 市场利率不断下行，理财资金不断转向高股息资产为股市营造良好的市场环境，推动中 长期资金入市的政策指向使保险资金股票投资不断提速，汇金等央企增持又使市场增添信 心，资金面整体稳中有增。 宏观经济数据和上市公司业绩同样保持平稳，进而使估值下有支撑，股指慢牛表现即有 基本面又有资金面的助力，预计下半年将继续震荡上行。 股指期货成交持仓略有增长，受多方因素影响贴水有所加大，为期指多头带来较好的投 资机会，在风险合理控制的情况下，可能为投资者取得超额收益。 风险因素：国内经济增长不及预期，地缘政治因素 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号： F0211891 投资咨询从业证号： Z000567 :sunfeng@chinastock.com.cn ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent excitement in the bond market due to a trainee from the idol group SNH48 interning at a currency intermediary, leading to a humorous nickname "NCD48 bottom" for the bond market's short-term turning point [2][10] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a notable decline, influenced by three main negative factors, including the triggering of the weak-side convertibility undertaking for the Hong Kong dollar, which led to a liquidity withdrawal of approximately 9.4 billion [10][11] - The stock of Guojun International, which surged nearly 200% due to stablecoin license news, faced a significant drop the following day, highlighting the speculative nature of the brokerage sector [12][14][15] Group 2 - The biotech sector in Hong Kong faced pressure due to two negative events: a significant discount placement by Innovent Biologics and a disappointing cash flow situation for Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals, leading to a drop of over 10% in their stock prices [17][18] - The article emphasizes the importance of a "bull market" mindset, suggesting that investors should focus on structural opportunities rather than being deterred by macroeconomic challenges [21][28] - It highlights two main investment themes: high-dividend monopolistic sectors in a low-interest-rate environment and industry leaders with core competitiveness and reasonable valuations [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment poses significant challenges for the banking industry, particularly in terms of net interest margin compression, which directly impacts profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Challenges and Strategies - The banking sector faces pressure on profitability due to declining net interest margins, which are a primary source of earnings [1]. - Banks are encouraged to diversify operations and expand non-interest income to mitigate the impact of low interest rates [1]. - Adjusting business models is essential, including optimizing asset-liability structures and controlling funding costs to enhance asset pricing capabilities [2]. Group 2: Risk Management and Business Expansion - Banks should focus on precise customer targeting and business segmentation to improve profitability rather than solely relying on increasing credit and deposits [2]. - Enhancing risk management capabilities and appropriately allocating short-term and long-term assets is crucial, with a focus on emerging sectors like technology and green finance that still have growth potential in a low interest rate environment [2]. - Financial institutions must actively expand comprehensive business operations and diversify income sources beyond traditional lending, including bond underwriting, investment, wealth management, and foreign exchange markets [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Considerations - Regulatory policies and assessment mechanisms should emphasize differentiated competition among financial institutions, recognizing the unique challenges and advantages of various types and sizes of institutions [3]. - Tailoring regulatory and assessment indicators based on the characteristics and strengths of different institutions can facilitate specialized development in niche markets [3]. - Allowing market-based pricing for certain services can enhance the efficiency of financial institutions and strengthen the resilience of the financial system [3].

Core Viewpoint - China-Italy Life Insurance Co., Ltd. (中意人寿) has undergone a change in leadership with Tong Tianxi appointed as the new chairman, amid a significant decline in investment performance in Q1 2025 [1][2][10]. Company Overview - China-Italy Life Insurance was established in 2002 as a joint venture between China National Petroleum Corporation (中石油) and Italy's CNP Assurances, with each holding a 50% stake [1][2]. - The company has maintained its shareholder structure since its inception, with the chairman position traditionally filled by representatives from 中石油 [2]. Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, China-Italy Life reported an investment return rate of 0.67% and a comprehensive investment return rate of -0.1%, a significant decline from 1.34% and 3.64% in Q1 2024, respectively [1][10]. - The net cash flow dropped from 1.271 billion yuan at the end of Q4 2024 to -266,890 yuan in Q1 2025, and net assets fell over 45% year-on-year to 4.8 billion yuan [1][10]. - The company achieved insurance business revenue of 14.59 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 1%, with a premium growth rate of 0.28% [7]. Strategic Direction - The company has historically focused on dividend insurance products, which have gained popularity as traditional insurance products lose appeal due to declining interest rates [6][7]. - In response to the declining new business premiums in the industry, China-Italy Life has introduced several traditional insurance products to boost cash flow [7][8]. - The management faces a strategic decision on whether to continue promoting dividend insurance or shift focus to traditional insurance to maintain premium scale and cash flow [8]. Leadership and Management - Tong Tianxi, the new chairman, has extensive financial experience within the 中石油 system and aims to leverage insurance funds for long-term financial services in the energy sector [3][4]. - Key executives in financial and asset management roles at China-Italy Life predominantly come from the 中石油 system, indicating a strong influence from the parent company [4][5]. Market Challenges - The insurance industry is experiencing a downturn, with new single premiums dropping significantly, impacting China-Italy Life's new business growth [6][7]. - The company is also facing challenges related to net asset and investment return declines, exacerbated by changes in accounting standards and a low-interest-rate environment [10][11].

以下文章来源于公募排排网 ，作者康波 公募排排网 . 看财经、查排名、买基金，就上公募排排网，申购费低至0.001折。 本文首发于公众号"公募排排网"。（点击↑↑上图查看详情） 导语 现在低利率环境已成常态，过去几年，利率从高位一路下滑，到底降了多少？当"躺赢"通道变窄，寻找下一个"收益堡垒"已刻不容缓！但那 些在市场中依然坚挺的资产，又在哪里？ 从指数间的对比来看，东证红利低波指数在近 3年有较好的表现。 在近3年累计回报中，东证红利低波指数累计回报较高，同时近3年的最大 回撤又较小，表现出更强的防御特征，综合风险收益后，表现相对较好。 所以，从过往 3年的历史表现来看，东证红利低波指数与市场有产品跟踪的红利指数相比：收益更高、波动更低 。 （ 点此查看详情 ） 那在红利资产中，东证红利低波动指数为何能脱颖而出？ 东证红利低波动指数从沪深A股中选取100只盈利较为稳定、预期股息率较高并具备低波动特征的上市公司股票作为指数样本股，以反映红利 在全球动荡不安、经济波动的当下，哪类资产能够同时满足高股息与低波动的双重需求？今天，我们就来一场深度掘金，寻找那些可能被低 估的投资机遇。（ 点此查看近3年收益同类排名第 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is around $3381 per ounce, showing a mild downward trend as it awaits the Federal Reserve's decision for clearer direction [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, are influencing gold prices, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's policy announcement expected to cause significant volatility [2] - The key resistance level for gold is identified at $3405, with a breakthrough indicating a potential bullish trend, while prices below this level suggest a bearish outlook [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have stabilized after a significant increase, with Brent crude previously rising by 4.4% and nearing $76 per barrel, while WTI approached $75 [6] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran, is a major factor affecting oil prices, with potential for further increases if conflicts escalate [6] - The technical outlook for oil indicates a bullish trend, with the price testing new highs and showing strong upward momentum, suggesting a focus on buying on dips [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the strong performance and increasing popularity of the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550), which has reached historical highs multiple times since 2025, with a net inflow exceeding 20 million on June 17 and a total inflow of 533.3 million over the past five days, bringing its total scale to over 500 million [1] - The Hong Kong dividend assets have been consistently favored by investors, with the total scale of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF exceeding 40 billion, and an inflow of 10.7 billion in 2025, representing a growth of 40% [1][3] - Southbound funds have shown a continuous inflow into high-dividend sectors such as banks and public utilities, with net purchases of bank stocks exceeding 200 billion over the past year, indicating a strong preference for high-dividend, low-valuation assets [3][4] Group 2 - In the current low interest rate environment, dividend assets exhibit relatively stable profitability and high dividends, making them attractive compared to one-year and three-year deposit rates [4][5] - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Low Volatility Index has a dividend yield of 8.1%, significantly higher than the China Securities Bank Index at 5.75% and the CSI 300 Index at 3.39% [5][8] - The index currently has a PE (TTM) of 7 times and a PB of 0.6 times, indicating a lower valuation compared to similar indices and a higher safety margin [9][10] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) implements monthly dividend assessments, currently distributing 0.04 yuan per ten shares, with a dividend ratio of approximately 0.37% [12] - The ETF has a management fee of 0.2%, the lowest among similar products in the market, making it a cost-effective long-term investment option [12]

本报记者冷翠华 见习记者杨笑寒 今年以来，分红险加速"上新"。《证券日报》记者据中国保险行业协会披露的数据梳理，今年以来截至6月13日，保险公 司共新推出403款人寿保险产品，其中分红险产品有151款，占比为37%，较2024年全年提升9个百分点。 中国平安执行董事、联席首席执行官郭晓涛在2024年度业绩发布会上表示，在预定利率持续下降的基础上，分红险在公司 产品结构的占比会持续增加。 成产品转型重点方向 分红险已成为人身险行业今年产品转型的重点方向。 国金证券非银首席分析师舒思勤近日表示，长端利率持续走低背景下，寿险产品结构向分红险转型。自2024年9月份开 始，我国传统险预定利率已重回2.5%时代，产品形态的转型也不可避免，预计下一阶段各个公司将大力推动分红型增额终身寿 险、年金险销售，负债端刚性成本有望继续降低。 交银国际发布的研报显示，预定利率的下调态势推动保险公司加大向分红型产品的转型。分红险是2025年保险公司的销售 重点，对于消费者来说，分红型产品在较低的保证利率水平上能够提供一定的向上弹性，对于寿险公司来说，分红型产品能够 降低刚性负债成本，缓解利差损风险。 受访人士表示，对消费者而言，在市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment in 2025, with savings rates dropping to around 0.05%, does not equate to currency depreciation, as the purchasing power of the RMB has actually increased in the domestic market despite lower savings returns [1][3][11]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - A significant reduction in deposit rates has been observed across state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and some city commercial banks since May 20, 2025 [1]. - The trend of lowering deposit rates has also been followed by rural commercial banks and village banks, leading to public discussions about the value of the RMB [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The low interest rates reflect a relatively abundant market liquidity, reduced corporate financing costs, and a lighter government debt burden, which indirectly benefits the public through lower loan rates [3][11]. - Despite lower investment returns, the potential for increased purchasing power due to falling prices may lead to consumers obtaining more goods in the future [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Effective fund management is crucial in a near-zero interest rate environment, with recommendations to allocate idle funds into different term deposits for better returns [3][5]. - Further investment options include bonds, funds, and insurance products, which can provide stable returns and risk mitigation in a low interest rate scenario [5][11]. Group 4: Impact on Income Groups - Low-income groups are less directly affected by interest rate changes due to limited savings, but may face increased employment pressure if corporate expansions do not meet market demand [7]. - Middle-income groups experience a complex situation with reduced savings returns and slower asset appreciation, necessitating careful adjustment of investment strategies [7][9]. - High-income groups are likely to seek higher-yield investment opportunities, such as stocks and real estate, while also benefiting from lower financing costs [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges posed by a low-interest-rate environment and suggests various asset allocation strategies to mitigate inflation pressure and enhance returns in such conditions [1][3][7]. Group 1: Financial Environment - The global financial environment is becoming increasingly complex, with many individuals struggling to keep pace [1]. - Japan's zero interest rate policy since 1999 and Europe's negative interest rates since 2014 have led to a shift in asset allocation strategies among residents [1][3]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Gold prices have reached $3,300, and Bitcoin has surged to $110,000, while deposit interest rates have fallen below 1%, creating significant pressure on traditional savings [3]. - Major domestic banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping below 1% [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - Personal asset management should follow a "three-part method" for diversified asset allocation [3]. - Short-term liquidity should be managed through money market funds or T+0 cash management products, with annualized rates around 1% [3]. - High-dividend stocks and REITs are recommended for stable income, with average dividend rates of approximately 3% for domestic ETFs and up to 7% for Hong Kong's high-dividend ETFs [5]. - A combination of government bonds, convertible bonds, and high-rated corporate bonds can target around 3% returns, with domestic options including policy financial bond funds and convertible bond index funds [5]. - Long-term guaranteed income can be achieved through life insurance products offering around 3% returns, although recent trends show a decline in guaranteed rates [5][7]. Group 4: Global Asset Diversification - Investors concerned about currency depreciation are advised to consider QDII index funds and gold ETFs for international asset diversification and commodity risk hedging [5]. - The article emphasizes the need for a multi-faceted investment strategy to adapt to the low-interest-rate environment and ensure asset preservation and growth [7].