债市多头情绪升温，短端利率下行明显 过去一周（6月2日~6月8日），债市多头情绪占据上风，短端利率下行趋势明显，而长端利率仍处于窄幅震荡区间。 具体来看，同业存单方面，华西证券的研报分析指出，上周初受制于6月存单大额到期压力，部分银行开始提价发行存单，但6月5日央行提前公告3个月买断 式回购操作规模后，银行负债压力或明显缓和，一级市场纷纷降价发行，二级市场收益率相应下行。3个月存单利率稳定在1.66%，6个月、1年期收益率则 依次下行3bp、3bp至1.65%、1.68%。 而在短债方面，1年、3年期国债收益率依次下行5bp、4bp至1.41%、1.44%，5年及以上品种收益率普遍下行2~3bp，10年国债收益率已重回1.65%，30年国债 收益率则下行至1.88%。可以说，信用债行情动能明显减弱，短久期利率债成为领跑品种，同时带动长久期利率债与类利率债行情。 公募市场方面，债券基金上周的表现比较平淡，短债基金的表现并没有明显好于中长期纯债基金。Wind统计显示，头部业绩产品当中，中长期纯债基金上 周业绩最好的是博远增睿纯债A，周收益率为0.47%；此外，山证资管裕利、德邦锐裕利率债A等周收益率也排在前列。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China may further implement measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts to ensure sufficient liquidity for economic recovery in the second half of the year [1] - On June 6, the central bank will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a three-month term to maintain liquidity in the banking system [1] - The bond market is expected to benefit from the overall loose funding environment, with market expectations for the resumption of central bank bond trading operations [1] Group 2 - Global central banks are generally in a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for continued downward pressure on bond yields throughout the year [2] - China's fiscal policy is expected to remain strong, with future policy easing likely relying more on monetary policy [2] - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) has seen significant net inflows, exceeding 2.7 billion yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [2] Group 3 - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) has consistently achieved annual profits since 2018, making it a valuable asset allocation tool across market cycles [3] - The fund has a historical performance record with a one-year return of 6.02%, a three-year return of 15.04%, and a five-year return of 19.26% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market opportunities may come from adjustments. If no unexpected events occur, the 10Y Treasury bond is expected to trade in a narrow range of 1.6% - 1.8% by the end of the year, and the bond market may lack trending opportunities [2]. - The current economic operation is in a neutral range. Exports are resilient, consumption has improved year - on - year, but investment remains sluggish. The marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption. However, due to over - capacity, PPI is still under pressure, and combined with negative real estate investment and international energy prices, black - series prices are particularly low. The bond market is not likely to enter a major bear market in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro News - The central bank did not conduct open - market Treasury bond trading operations in May. In May, it carried out 700 billion yuan of repurchase operations, but due to the maturity of 900 billion yuan of existing operations, it achieved a net liquidity withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [11]. - At the end of the first quarter of 2025, the balance of consumer loans was 21.02 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, and an increase of 32.1 billion yuan in the first quarter. The balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 265.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan in the first quarter [12]. - From January to April this year, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.4%, 0.6 percentage points faster than in the first quarter. The revenues of large - scale light - industry enterprises reached 7.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the profits were 419.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [12][13]. - The US tariff policy is in a judicial tug - of - war. The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5% for the third consecutive time, and may face "difficult trade - offs" in the future [17]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data: Strong Consumption, Stable Production, and Weak Prices 3.2.1 Consumption - As of May 25, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars was 60,800, a year - on - year increase of 26.4%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 75,900, a year - on - year increase of 14.4% [15]. - As of May 23, the weekly retail volumes of refrigerators/freezers, air conditioners, and washing machines were 741,400, 1.6127 million, and 655,700 units respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 8.1%, + 65.6%, and - 20.5%. The weekly retail revenues were 1.892 billion yuan, 3.901 billion yuan, and 1.246 billion yuan respectively, with month - on - month changes of + 2.6%, + 70.4%, and - 44.0% [23]. - As of June 1, the total movie box office in the past seven days was 480 million yuan, a month - on - month increase of 95.8% and a year - on - year increase of 17.5% [27]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of May 25, the weekly container throughput of ports was 7 million TEUs, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. The CCFI composite index on May 30 was 1118, a month - on - month increase of 0.9% [29]. - The Baltic Dry Index on May 30 was 1418, with a weekly average of 1342, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The Baidu Migration Index on June 1 was 674, with a weekly average of 600, a year - on - year increase of 37.8% [33]. - As of May 25, the weekly number of civil aviation flights was 1.21 million, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%. The average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities on May 31 was 34.666 million person - times, and the weekly average was 39.258 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [37]. - As of May 25, the weekly postal express pick - up volume was 4.15 billion pieces, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%, and the delivery volume was 4.22 billion pieces, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. As of June 1, the weekly railway freight volume was 78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 52.008 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14% [43][47]. 3.2.3 Operating Rates - As of May 28, the operating rate of blast furnaces of major steel enterprises was 77.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. As of May 29, the asphalt operating rate was 24.0%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% [52]. - As of May 29, the soda ash operating rate was 79.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%, the PVC operating rate was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. As of May 30, the average operating rates of PX and PTA were 82.1% and 74.2% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 6.2% and 1.1% [56]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of May 29, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.31 million square meters, with month - on - month increases of 8.9%, 18.3%, and 6.7% in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities respectively. The number of transactions was 23,000 units, with month - on - month increases of 6.9%, 17.0%, and - 0.6% in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities respectively [64]. - As of May 23, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 9 sample cities was 1.921 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5% in May. As of May 25, the listing volume index of second - hand housing in the country was 16.0, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.8% in May. The listing price index was 154.6, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% in May [70]. - As of June 1, the number of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 552, a month - on - month increase of 35.0%. The floor price per square meter was 49,504 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 98.3%, and the land premium rate was 4.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 25.5% [74]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of May 30, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.7 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.3 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 7.8 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [75][80]. - The commodity price BPI on June 1 was 856, a decrease of 2.8% compared to the beginning of the year. The price of thermal coal at northern ports on May 30 was 615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.1% compared to the beginning of the year. The spot price of rebar on May 30 was 3077.1 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The spot price of iron ore was 756.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0%. The spot price of glass was 14.4 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [80][83][84]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets: Stable Capital Interest Rates - On May 30, overnight Shibor was 1.47%, down 3.50BP from May 26. R001 was 1.57%, up 1.78BP; R007 was 1.70%, up 0.12BP. DR001 was 1.48%, down 2.91BP; DR007 was 1.66%, up 1.00BP. IBO001 was 1.51%, down 3.57BP; IBO007 was 1.58%, up 12.78BP [88]. - Most Treasury bond yields declined. On May 30, the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year yields were 1.46%/1.56%/1.67%/1.89% respectively, up 1.1BP/down 0.2BP/down 5.0BP/up 0.3BP compared to May 23. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year state - owned development bonds were 1.54%/1.62%/1.70%/2.07% respectively, up 1.5BP/up 1.5BP/down 1.6BP/down 0.1BP compared to May 23 [98]. - On May 30, the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year local government bonds were 1.52%/1.66%/1.87% respectively, up 3.0BP/down 1.7BP/up 1.2BP compared to May 23. The yields of 1 - month/1 - year AAA and AA + inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.56%/1.70%/1.59%/1.74% respectively, down 6.1BP/up 0.2BP/down 6.1BP/up 0.2BP compared to May 23 [102]. - The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB on May 30 were 7.18 and 7.20 respectively, down 71 pips and up 58 pips compared to May 23 [105]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior: Interest - rate Bond Funds Extend Duration, Credit - bond Funds Keep Duration Stable - As of May 25, the net - loss rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 1.08%, a decrease of 0.89BP from the beginning of the year, and it has dropped to the lowest level this year [107]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure interest - rate bond funds has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. On May 29, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 4.1 years, and the estimated average duration was about 4.6 years, an increase of about 0.09 years compared to the previous week [110]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure credit - bond funds has shown a slight fluctuation trend. On May 29, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 2.0 years, and the estimated average duration was about 2.1 years, a decrease of about 0.05 years compared to the previous week [111]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - The bond market opportunities may come from adjustments. When the 10Y Treasury bond yield reaches the upper limit of the range, extend the duration; when it approaches the lower limit, reduce the duration, and conduct 10BP - level band operations [2]. - In June, the bond market may face several challenges. It is recommended to wait until the second half of June for interest - rate bond band opportunities. The total maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit in June will reach 4.17 trillion yuan, a record high in recent years. The scale of wealth management products may decline seasonally in the second half of June, and the scale may increase significantly in July due to the reduction of deposit interest rates [2]. - The yield curve of credit bonds within 5 years may flatten. It is recommended to focus on credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. It is also recommended to pay more attention to Hong Kong - listed financial stocks, fixed - income + Hong Kong - listed dividend stocks, and continue to be bullish on Hong Kong - listed banks [116].

Group 1: Company Bond ETF (511030) - As of June 4, 2025, the Company Bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.01%, with the latest price at 105.82 yuan [1] - Over the past year, the Company Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.13% [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 15.248 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The latest share count for the Company Bond ETF is 14.4 million shares, also a new high in the past month [1] - In the last 14 days, the Company Bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 323 million yuan, totaling 1.557 billion yuan, averaging 111 million yuan daily [1] - The latest margin buying amount for the Company Bond ETF is 2.0106 million yuan, with a margin balance of 2.7483 million yuan [1] Group 2: National Bond ETF (511020) - As of June 4, 2025, the National Bond ETF (511020) is in a state of market indecision, with the latest quote at 117.15 yuan [3] - Over the past six months, the National Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.22% [3] - The latest scale of the National Bond ETF is 1.435 billion yuan [3] - Recent fund inflows and outflows for the National Bond ETF have been balanced, with a total of 17.566 million yuan in the last four trading days [3] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF (159651) - As of June 4, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF (159651) is also in a state of market indecision, with the latest quote at 106.04 yuan [5] - Over the past year, the National Development Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.96% [5] - The trading volume for the National Development Bond ETF was 6.0126 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.52% [5] - The scale of the National Development Bond ETF has increased by 123 million yuan over the past six months, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [5] Group 4: Market Overview and Insights - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 119 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% [6] - The secondary market for interest rate bonds saw significant net selling by joint-stock banks, with a net sell of 59 billion yuan from joint-stock banks and a net buy of 24 billion yuan from large banks [6] - The market outlook for Hong Kong financial stocks remains positive, with a potential 30% upside for Hong Kong banks due to stable net interest margins and low domestic risk-free rates [6] - Year-to-date, the pure bond fund index has yielded 0.47%, underperforming money market funds [6] Group 5: ETF Product Overview - The three main members of the bond ETF family managed by Ping An Fund include the Company Bond ETF (511030), National Development Bond ETF (159651), and National Bond ETF (511020), covering government bonds, policy bank bonds, and credit bonds across various durations [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent reduction in deposit interest rates has two characteristics: a relatively large adjustment range and fast follow - up by banks, indicating significant net interest margin pressure on banks. For banks, on the asset side, the requirement for interest rate levels will decrease, and the motivation to allocate bonds will increase due to weak credit issuance and improved bond cost - effectiveness. However, on the liability side, the scale of funds flowing out of the balance sheet may be large, and the pressure on the liability side may increase, making the scale of bond allocation uncertain. For generalized asset management, the demand for 1 - 3Y credit bonds will increase, and the spread of 3Y credit bonds will narrow about 3 - 4 weeks after the interest rate cut, with the outflow process lasting 2 - 3 months. For investors, credit bonds are a more certain choice, and for interest - rate bonds, new marginal changes need to be observed. Considering the possibility of further interest rate cuts this year, investors can gradually increase their allocation of 10Y Treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.7% [2][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Deposit Interest Rate Cut and Its Impact on the Bond Market - **Characteristics of the Current Cut**: The adjustment range is large. With the 1Y and 5Y LPR both cut by 10BP, the deposit interest rate cuts of large - scale banks are 15BP and 25BP respectively, higher than previous levels. Also, banks have followed up quickly. As of May 22, 2025, 12 joint - stock banks have completed the adjustment, and some city and rural commercial banks are following suit, reflecting the large net interest margin pressure on banks [13]. - **Impact on Institutional Behavior**: - **Banks**: On the asset side, after the deposit interest rate cut, the average liability cost of the six major banks is expected to decrease by 10.3BP. With a large number of fixed - term deposits maturing in the next two years, the liability - side cost pressure will further ease, and the requirement for asset - side yields will decrease. Also, weak credit issuance and the improved cost - effectiveness of bonds increase the motivation to allocate bonds. On the liability side, the large - scale deposit interest rate adjustment may lead to a significant outflow of funds, and the liability - side pressure may increase, making the scale of bond allocation uncertain [17][21][25]. - **Generalized Asset Management**: Referring to previous interest rate cuts, after funds flow out of the balance sheet, the demand for 1 - 3Y credit bonds increases, usually leading to a narrowing of the 3Y credit bond spread. The spread starts to narrow about 3 - 4 weeks after the interest rate cut, and the outflow process lasts 2 - 3 months [26]. - **Investment Opportunities in the Bond Market**: Credit bonds are a more certain choice for investors, supported by coupon advantages and increased demand from funds flowing out of the balance sheet. Interest - rate bonds are in an oscillating upward phase and need new marginal changes to determine the direction. Considering the possibility of further interest rate cuts this year, investors can gradually increase their allocation of 10Y Treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.7% [30]. 3.2 Institutional Bond Custody No specific content provided in the given text. 3.3 Institutional Fund Tracking - **Fund Prices**: In the week of May 19 - 23, 2025, liquidity slightly eased. R007 closed at 1.63%, unchanged from the previous week, DR007 closed at 1.59%, down 5BP from the previous week, and the 6 - month national - share transfer discount rate closed at 1.14%, down 4BP from the previous week [40]. - **Financing Situation**: The balance of inter - bank pledged reverse repurchase this week was 108,111.6 billion yuan, up 0.2% from the previous week. For generalized asset management, the net financing of fund companies and bank wealth management products was - 848 million yuan and - 5.326 billion yuan respectively [43]. 3.4 Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Fund Duration**: This week, the measured durations of high - performance interest - rate bond funds and general interest - rate bond funds in the market were 6.53 and 5.09 respectively, increasing by 0.18 and 0.25 compared to the previous week [48]. - **Asset Scarcity Index**: The "asset scarcity" index slightly increased, with a smaller index value indicating looser liquidity, lower credit bond supply, and higher credit bond demand [58]. - **Institutional Behavior Trading Signals**: Trading signals for secondary capital bonds, ultra - long - term Treasury bonds, and 10Y local bonds are provided, with gray areas indicating bullish signals [61][65][67]. - **Institutional Leverage**: The overall market leverage ratio remained unchanged at 106.8% this week. Among generalized asset management institutions, the leverage ratio of insurance institutions was 113.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous week; the fund leverage ratio was 101.9%, down 0.4 percentage points; and the securities firm leverage ratio was 184.9%, down 2.6 percentage points [68]. - **Bank Self - investment Comparison Table**: A comparison table for bank self - investment is provided, showing the nominal yields, tax costs, capital occupation costs, and post - tax and risk - adjusted returns of various assets such as general loans, 10Y Treasury bonds, and 10Y local bonds [73]. 3.5 Asset Management Product Data Tracking - **Funds**: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [75]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: The overall market wealth management product break - even rate slightly decreased this week, with the break - even rate of all products at 2.0% [78]. 3.6 Treasury Futures Trend Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [83]. 3.7 Generalized Asset Management Landscape No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [88].

Group 1: Company Bond ETF Performance - As of May 22, 2025, the Company Bond ETF (511030) rose by 0.04%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with the latest price at 105.77 yuan [1] - Over the past six months, the Company Bond ETF has accumulated a total increase of 1.15% [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 14.591 billion yuan, a record high since its inception [1] - The ETF has seen a continuous net inflow of funds over the past seven days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 263 million yuan, totaling 907 million yuan [1] Group 2: Government Bond ETF Performance - As of May 22, 2025, the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF (511020) was in a state of equilibrium, with the latest quote at 117.2 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 2.88% over the past six months [3] - The latest scale of the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF reached 1.491 billion yuan [3] - The ETF experienced a total net inflow of 24.605 million yuan over the past five trading days [3] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF Performance - As of May 22, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF (159651) was also in a state of equilibrium, with the latest quote at 106.01 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 2.05% over the past year [5] - The latest scale of the National Development Bond ETF reached 1.425 billion yuan [5] - The ETF's trading volume was active, with a turnover rate of 16.29% and a transaction volume of 233 million yuan [5] Group 4: Market Insights and Economic Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the economy may stabilize, maintaining a bullish outlook on Hong Kong bank stocks, with significant net purchases of interest rate bonds by debt funds [8] - The consumer sector is showing steady recovery, and strong exports are expected to continue, with a forecast for the 10-year government bond yield to peak around 1.8% in the next six months [8] - The banking sector's net interest margin is expected to stabilize and slightly improve by 2026, with revenue and profit growth anticipated to turn positive [8] - The valuation of A-share banks in Jiangsu and Zhejiang may approach 1x PB, indicating potential for further upside [8]

截至2025年5月22日 09:47，公司债ETF(511030)多空胶着，最新报价105.73元。拉长时间看，截至2025年5月21日，公司债ETF近半年累计上涨1.12%。 华泰固收认为2025 年债市呈现 "高起点"，春节前处于基本面及政策真空期，低位震荡，多看少动。中期看，债市有可能进入大的震荡格局中，呈现低回 报、高波动、重交易特征。 浙商证券认为近期债市调整仍将持续，但鉴于基本面无明确利空，货币宽松基调不变，建议按利率底部区间震荡思路交易，逢调整做多仍然适用。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手0.1%，成交1478.08万元。拉长时间看，截至5月21日，公司债ETF近1周日均成交16.41亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达144.75亿元，创近1年新高。 份额方面，公司债ETF最新份额达1.37亿份，创近1月新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，公司债ETF近6天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得2.63亿元净流入，合计"吸金"7.94亿元，日均净流入达1.32亿元。 关税大降后，经济担忧减弱，债市开始陡峭化。近期，美日等国债收益率不断创近年新高；股市亦稳步上涨。 有业内人士认为，存款利率下调后，大行 ...

资金面小幅收敛，债市情绪偏弱 上周（5.12-5.18），中美关税政策的调整对全球资本市场带来正面影响，尤其是权益类市场重获资金关注，也造成了债市短期的压力，资金面出现了小幅收 敛，债市情绪偏弱。 公开数据统计，上周央行公开市场开展4860亿7天逆回购操作，到期8361亿，全周净回笼3501亿元，全周DR007围绕于1.50%波动，资金价格后半周有所抬 升。 每经记者｜任飞 每经编辑｜叶峰 上周，国债期货震荡走弱，资金面又一次出现收敛。债市情绪偏弱背景下，基金投资收益率并不理想，不过，市场中并不缺少做多的理由。总体来看，目前 影响债市的关键是不确定性因素对短期市场情绪的扰动，不过，有分析指出，利多事件的冲击对于债市的影响在今年来看是一个非常迅速的过程，债券资产 依然在年内有配置的必要和机会。 资金面是市场最为关注的因素，就目前市场的预期来看，有分析指出，预计税期资金面均衡略转紧，市场情绪整体偏弱。 根据上海东证期货的研报分析，由于中美贸易谈判进展超预期，资金面边际收敛，国债期货震荡调整，5年期到7年期品种调整幅度相对较大。 从基金的表现来看，中长期纯债基金平均业绩表现不及短债基金。Wind统计显示，短债基金上 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent changes in tariffs and their implications for asset allocation strategies, highlighting a shift from confrontation to a more conciliatory approach in trade relations [1] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the current complex landscape in China, particularly in the context of the ongoing tariff wars and their impact on various sectors [1] - The article features insights from industry experts on how to navigate the evolving investment environment, particularly focusing on the balance between "new" and "old" consumption trends [1] Group 2 - The article mentions the significant reforms in public funds and how these changes will affect future investment strategies, particularly in the context of market volatility [2] - It highlights the appeal of pure bond funds with set holding periods, which provide a balance between yield and liquidity, helping investors manage emotional responses during market fluctuations [2] - The article also notes the importance of disciplined investment approaches to achieve certainty in uncertain market conditions [2] Group 3 - The performance of various ETFs is analyzed, with specific focus on the Food and Beverage ETF, which has seen a recent increase of 2.20% and a net inflow of 21.8 million yuan despite a reduction in shares [5] - The Gaming ETF has experienced a decline of 1.60% with a significant outflow of 6.82 million yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [5] - The Cloud Computing ETF remains stable with no change in performance, but has seen a slight net inflow, suggesting cautious investor interest [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations exceeded expectations, with US tariffs on China significantly reduced. The 24% tariff will be suspended for the initial 90 days, 10% will be retained, and the remaining additional tariffs will be cancelled, equivalent to a 115 - percentage - point reduction (24% suspended for 90 days). There is a possibility that the 20% fentanyl tariff will be further reduced [2]. - China's export resilience exceeded expectations. In April, despite a 20% drop in exports to the US, total export volume increased by 9.3% year - on - year, reflecting strong industrial competitiveness. The report predicts that China's economy will stabilize internally in 2025 [2]. - After the significant tariff reduction, the money market is expected to gradually tighten. The DR001 weighted average interest rate is expected to rise to around 1.7% in the next month, and the 1Y national - share inter - bank certificate of deposit rate will reach 1.8%. If the 20% fentanyl tariff is also reduced to 0, the DR001 weighted average interest rate may further rise to around 1.8% [2]. - It is recommended to consider allocating 10Y Treasury bonds at 1.8% and 30Y Treasury bonds at around 2.1%. It is expected that there will be no trend - based opportunities in pure - bond investment in the next two years. For 5Y national - share secondary capital bonds, it is advisable to wait until the yield is above 2.1% [2]. - With the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the positive factors for the bond market may have been exhausted. The report recommends a full - scale defensive strategy for the bond market and suggests paying more attention to stocks and convertible bonds in 2025 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content China - US Tariff Negotiation Progress - On May 11, the US and China reached a trade agreement, and on May 12, the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" was released, with significant tariff reductions [2]. China's Economic Situation - In April, China's total export volume increased by 9.3% year - on - year despite a 20% drop in exports to the US, indicating strong industrial competitiveness. Domestic consumption is steadily recovering, the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, and the stock market is slowly rising [2]. Capital Market and Bond Market Outlook - After the tariff reduction, the money market is expected to tighten. The DR001 weighted average interest rate and 1Y national - share inter - bank certificate of deposit rate are expected to rise. The report advises waiting for appropriate yields when investing in Treasury bonds and secondary capital bonds and adopting a defensive strategy for the bond market [2].