全球去美元化

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超越欧元!黄金成为全球第二大储备资产
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-11 23:08
Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) report indicates that gold has surpassed the euro to become the world's second-largest reserve asset, highlighting a trend of diversification in central bank assets [1][2] - As of the end of 2024, gold is projected to account for 20% of global official reserves, compared to the euro's 16%, driven by central bank purchases and record gold prices [2] - In 2024, central banks are expected to purchase over 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year, with demand significantly influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility [2][3] Group 2 - The report reveals that approximately two-thirds of central banks invest in gold for asset diversification, while about 40% do so to hedge against geopolitical risks [3] - Countries affected by Western sanctions have seen a notable increase in gold's share of their official reserves, with these economies contributing to 50% of the largest annual growth in gold holdings since 1999 [3] - Several African nations are actively seeking to reduce reliance on the dollar by increasing gold purchases, with Tanzania investing $400 million in 6 tons of gold to stabilize its currency [3] Group 3 - The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has declined by 2 percentage points in 2024, despite a slight increase in the euro's share, with the dollar now holding 46% of the market [4] - Over the past decade, the dollar's market share has decreased by 10 percentage points, indicating a sustained trend of de-dollarization [4] Group 4 - The ECB notes that since April, there are signs that euro assets may benefit from the declining confidence in the dollar, as U.S. Treasury yields rise while the dollar depreciates against the euro [9] - The instability of U.S. economic policy has led to accelerated sales of dollar assets, providing an opportunity for the euro, contingent on further integration steps within the Eurozone [9]
避险情绪重燃!黄金“避风港”欲卷土重来?港股“新股王”年内暴涨3倍
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-03 06:42
昨天已率先"沸腾"的港股黄金股继续走强,集海资源涨超6%,复兴亚洲涨超5%,中国白银集团涨超 4%,大唐黄金、紫金矿业、招金矿业等跟涨。 节后首个交易日,A股低开震荡,市场热点题材继续轮动。 不过,在避险情绪引爆下,黄金及贵金属板块周二全线强势上扬。 截至发稿,西部黄金涨停,市值已超180亿;晓程科技、赤峰黄金涨超5%,湖南黄金、四川黄金等纷纷 跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | 19.64 | +1.79 | 10.03% | 180.23亿 | | 300139 | 晓程科技 | 19.73 | +1.04 | 5.56% | 54.06亿 | | 600988 | 赤峰黄金 | 27.59 | +1.33 | 5.06% | 524.32 Z | | 001337 | 四川黄金 | 24.17 | +0.93 | 4.00% | 101.51亿 | | 000975 | 山金国际 | 20.46 | +0.77 | 3.91% | 568.12亿 ...
美国挥出一记记王八拳,结果把自己打进了死胡同
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-30 16:01
Group 1: Tariff Policy - The U.S. tariff policy has been frequently changing since the Trump administration, creating significant uncertainty in the international trade environment [5][6] - In late 2024, the U.S. announced a sudden 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, which was quickly retracted after backlash, disrupting the North American supply chain [6][8] - In 2024, the average tariff on Chinese goods was 10%, affecting a total value of $350 billion [6][8] Group 2: Visa Restrictions - The U.S. has implemented visa restrictions targeting Chinese students, which has faced strong opposition from the academic community [10][11] - Chinese students contribute approximately $15 billion annually to the U.S. higher education system, and their potential departure could impact the U.S. tech industry's talent pool [13][10] Group 3: Fiscal Crisis - As of April 2025, the U.S. federal debt exceeded $36.2 trillion, representing 128% of GDP, with interest payments on national debt reaching $1.1 trillion in 2024 [14][18] - Moody's has warned that without structural reforms, public debt could rise to 134% of GDP by 2035, risking a downgrade in credit rating [14][18] Group 4: Global Economic Position - The U.S. is experiencing a decline in its global economic dominance, with Canada imposing retaliatory tariffs on $106 billion worth of U.S. goods and the EU targeting U.S. tech companies [19][21] - The IMF reported that the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 58%, the lowest since 1995, while the cross-border settlement volume of the yuan increased by 32% in 2024 [21][19] Group 5: Historical Patterns - The current trajectory of the U.S. mirrors historical patterns of declining powers, characterized by rising fiscal deficits and social division [22][23] - Public sentiment shows a decline in belief in American exceptionalism, with only 27% of young Americans supporting it, and 52% believing China's economy has surpassed that of the U.S. [23][25] Group 6: China's Strategic Response - In response to U.S. policy fluctuations, China should focus on stabilizing its industrial base, particularly in key sectors like semiconductors and AI [26][28] - China aims to enhance its technological innovation capabilities and deepen foreign investment to adapt to the changing global economic landscape [26][28]
ETO Markets 市场洞察:白宫60分钟"利率核战":特朗普怒斥鲍威尔"叛国",美元霸权岌岌可危?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-30 05:49
Group 1 - The core conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell revolves around the Fed's decision to maintain high interest rates, which Trump argues is detrimental to U.S. manufacturing competitiveness [1][3] - Trump highlighted that the U.S. dollar index has risen by 12% since 2022, negatively impacting the profits of U.S. export companies, while China has stimulated its manufacturing sector through interest rate cuts [3][5] - Powell emphasized the Fed's commitment to data-driven decision-making, citing that core inflation remains above the 2% target and warning against premature rate cuts that could lead to a wage-price spiral [3][5] Group 2 - The historical context of the conflict dates back to 2017 when Trump nominated Powell, but their relationship soured after the Fed began raising interest rates in 2018 [4] - Trump's administration is currently attempting to reshape the Fed's decision-making body by nominating members with dovish tendencies, while facing legal and market constraints on removing Powell [4][5] - The current federal funds rate is maintained in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, close to the peak levels since 2001, with concerns about the implications of high rates on the economy and international competitiveness [5][7] Group 3 - The meeting reflects a deeper structural conflict between the "America First" policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve, highlighting three major challenges: rising federal debt exceeding $35 trillion, a declining share of the dollar in global reserves, and geopolitical shifts towards non-dollar trade agreements [8][10] - The Fed's monetary policy decisions will significantly influence global capital flows, with potential outcomes ranging from increased debt crises in emerging markets to a decline in the dollar's status as a reserve currency [8][10] - The ongoing power struggle between political and economic cycles is expected to intensify as the 2026 Fed chair transition approaches, indicating a period of heightened uncertainty in the financial markets [10]
美元汇率大幅下挫创年内新低,财政赤字与信用风险叠加冲击市场信心
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 02:26
2025年5月美元汇率大幅下跌,主要原因可归结为以下六个方面: 1. 财政赤字与信用风险加剧 美国国会通过的新减税法案预计未来十年新增数万亿美元财政赤字,叠加穆迪等评级机构调降美国主权 及银行信用评级,市场对美债可持续性担忧加剧。这一背景下,美国国债拍卖遇冷,5月22日20年期国 债拍卖需求疲软,长期收益率大幅飙升,反映投资者要求更高风险溢价,直接拖累美元指数跌破99关 口。 2. 关税政策冲击全球信心 特朗普公开施压美联储大幅降息,甚至威胁解雇主席鲍威尔,引发市场对货币发行政治化的担忧。这种 干预动摇了美元信用基础,部分投资者认为美联储可能丧失抑制通胀的能力,加剧美元抛售潮。同期美 债收益率曲线陡峭化,10年期国债收益率突破4.5%,显示市场对长期通胀预期升温。 4. 全球去美元化进程加速 中国、俄罗斯等国家推动本币结算和黄金储备多元化,叠加美国滥用金融制裁导致美元资产信任度下 降。IMF数据显示人民币购买力平价被显著低估(3.55元/1美元),促使国际资本重新配置资产。5月美 元指数较年初累计下跌11.1%,创2005年以来最差开局。 5. 美元套利逻辑逆转 日本央行加息至0.25%并缩减超长期国债购买, ...
如何看待特朗普对欧盟50%的关税威胁?
HTSC· 2025-05-26 02:25
Market Reaction - Following Trump's announcement, the US experienced a significant decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, with the dollar index dropping by 0.8% and the euro strengthening by 0.7%[2] - European stock indices, particularly France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX, fell by 1.9% and 1.5% respectively, while the S&P 500 index in the US decreased by 0.7%[2] - The 10-year Eurozone bond yield increased by 1.4 basis points, while the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 2.3 basis points, indicating market volatility[2] Tariff Implications - Trump's proposed 50% tariff on the EU could lead to significant economic repercussions for both the US and EU, as they are each other's largest trading partners[4] - In 2024, the US accounted for 14% of EU imports and 21% of EU exports, while the EU represented 18% of US imports and 19% of US exports[4] - If implemented, the US could see a reduction of over 50% in imports from the EU, severely impacting industries such as pharmaceuticals, machinery, and automobiles[4] Economic Context - The US faces increasing pressure from rising Treasury yields, which could limit the effectiveness of its tariff policies and lead to greater asset sell-off[5] - The US Treasury yields for 10-year and 30-year bonds have recently surpassed 4.5% and 5.0% respectively, reflecting concerns over fiscal sustainability[5][6] - The EU has more room for fiscal expansion compared to the US, which may lead to a more favorable economic outlook for Europe in the face of potential tariffs[5] Political Dynamics - Trump's tariff threats may be more of a strategic maneuver in trade negotiations with the EU, especially given the slow progress in recent talks[3] - The political landscape in the US may limit Trump's ability to implement the proposed tariffs, as domestic pressures could shift focus away from international trade issues[7] - The likelihood of the 50% tariff being enacted is low, with expectations that the final tariff level will not exceed 20%[8]
美日长债价格同步崩盘,全球债市不稳定因素增加引发市场情绪共振
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 08:42
白雪指出,总体来看,市场对美债的承接能力弱化,与美联储缩表减持美债、美国国内共同基金降低美 债配置,以及海外投资者持续减持美债都有一定关系。短期诱因更多可能与上周美国主权信用评级遭遇 调降、特朗普税改法案在众议院预算委员会通过,极大加剧了市场对美国长期财政赤字扩张与债务压力 问题的担忧有关。 中诚信国际主权资深分析师王家璐告诉新京报贝壳财经记者,2025年美国财政融资需求维持在高位。高 存量美国国债和高预期供给已对市场形成前瞻性冲击,叠加投资者对美国中长期财政可持续性的担忧, 成为推动美债收益率上行的重要基础性因素。 对于美日两国长期限国债走弱,也有部分市场人士指出,当前美日央行维持相对偏紧的货币政策,两国 央行均在卖出国债,加剧了供需矛盾。同时目前美日两国通胀压力维持在高位,均高于美日央行目前的 合意区间。通胀压力导致两国央行均收紧其货币政策,持续在公开市场卖出国债。缺少央行购债的需求 支撑,加大了两国债市的脆弱性。 近日全球长期限债券利率普遍上行。截至当地时间5月21日,30年期美国国债收益率突破5%,触及2008 年以来的高点;30年期日债收益率向上触及2.98%,为2000年以来最高水平,4月以来上涨 ...
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250522
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 06:21
投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 从业资格证号:F0256916 投资咨询证号:Z0000671 电话:021-80128600-8632 邮箱:jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-80128600-8631 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号:F3033924 投资咨询证号:Z0013026 电话:021-80128600-8621 邮箱:Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号:F03091165 投资咨询证号:Z0019876 联系电话:021-80128600-8630 邮箱:liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-80128600-8622 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021-80128600-8616 邮箱:fengb@qh168.co ...
机构看金市:5月22日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 05:49
Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar credit is providing long-term support for gold prices, driven by economic uncertainty and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Donghai Futures indicates that the softening dollar, combined with economic uncertainty, is boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a continued rise in gold prices [1]. - According to Wengang Futures, the weakening of US dollar credit is positively impacting gold prices, with expectations of continued expansion of the US fiscal deficit under the Trump administration [2]. - Shenyin Wanguo Futures notes that gold and silver are rebounding amid a weak dollar, with concerns over US debt and economic pressures continuing to grow [3]. Group 2: Price Predictions - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia forecasts that gold prices will gradually rise to $3,750 per ounce in the fourth quarter due to safe-haven demand and a weakening dollar [3]. - The World Gold Council suggests that a rise in gold prices to $4,000 is not impossible, driven by strong demand and economic pressures [4]. Group 3: Demand Trends - The World Gold Council reports that global gold demand remains strong, with total demand in the first quarter reaching 1,206 tons, marking the strongest start to a year since 2016 [4].
风口纵横|美债收益率飙升背后:美国政府已被“债”套牢
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 04:58
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. financial market is experiencing a "triple kill" scenario with significant declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, leading to increased yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and heightened market volatility [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 22, the three major U.S. stock indices recorded their largest drop in a month, with the S&P 500 down 1.61%, the Nasdaq down 1.41%, and the Dow Jones down 1.91% [2]. - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, surged by 15.42% [2]. Group 2: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds on May 22 revealed a high bid rate of 5.047%, marking a 1.2 basis point increase from the pre-auction rate, the largest tail risk in six months [4]. - The demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening, as indicated by a drop in the bid-to-cover ratio from an average of 2.57 to 2.46 [4][5]. Group 3: Credit Rating and Market Sentiment - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has led to a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, pushing the 30-year bond yield higher and negatively impacting stock futures [5]. - The market's reaction is attributed to concerns over the long-term fiscal deficit and debt pressure exacerbated by recent legislative developments [5]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The rising yields on U.S. Treasuries indicate a potential increase in government borrowing costs, which could lead to a vicious cycle of rising yields, increased financing costs, and a heavier debt burden [10]. - The U.S. government is projected to spend over $1 trillion on debt interest in the 2024 fiscal year, a 29% increase from the previous year, marking the highest level since 1998 [8][10]. Group 5: Global Market Effects - The increase in U.S. Treasury yields is likely to pressure risk asset valuations, potentially impacting high U.S. stock prices and global capital markets [11]. - Other countries' bond markets are also experiencing fluctuations, with yields in Germany and the UK rising as well [11]. - The rising yields may weaken the dollar's safe-haven appeal, accelerating the global trend of de-dollarization [11]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that U.S. Treasury yields will remain high due to economic resilience and inflationary pressures, while medium to long-term forecasts indicate a potential decline in yields as economic growth slows and the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts [12].