研究中心农产品团队 2025/10/28 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/10/21 | 2020 | 2130 | 2170 | 2310 | -14 | 40 195 | 2700 | 2800 | 226 | 112 | | 2025/10/22 | 2020 | 2130 | 2180 | 2300 | -3 | 30 185 | 2700 | 2800 | 229 | 112 | | 2025/10/23 | 2050 | 2110 | 2190 | 2290 | -30 | 30 176 | 2700 | 2800 | 205 | 112 | | 2025/10/24 | 2050 | 2110 | 2190 | 2280 | -23 | 20 142 | 2700 | 2800 ...

白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/10/10 5870 5800 5820 374 202 384 8867 2025/10/13 5850 5800 - 380 - - 8681 2025/10/14 5850 5810 5780 453 - - 8488 2025/10/15 5840 5790 5770 437 - - 8438 2025/10/16 5810 5790 5760 402 - - 8438 变化 -30 0 -10 -35 - - 0 【行情分析】： 白糖：国际市场方面，现阶段巴西正处于压榨高峰期，供应压力使得国际糖价承压。截至目前，巴西单产和出糖率同比持续偏低，制糖比略有 回落但仍处于历史高位，后期产量不确定性增加，关注双周报数据。国内整体跟随原糖，进口糖陆续到港，加工糖报价下调明显，盘面上方压 力较大。 | 棉花棉纱 | | | 棉花 | | | 棉纱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 3128 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: October 15, 2025 [2] - Report team: Research Center's Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Corn - Changchun** | 2230 | 2110 | 1980 | 1970 | 1970 | 0 | | **Corn - Jinzhou** | 2190 | 2130 | 2120 | 2100 | 2080 | -20 | | **Corn - Weifang** | 2264 | 2150 | 2140 | 2130 | 2120 | -10 | | **Corn - Shekou** | 2440 | 2410 | 2380 | 2340 | 2310 | -30 | | **Corn - Basis** | 47 | -8 | -5 | 8 | -13 | -21 | | **Corn - Trade Profit** | 115 | 145 | 125 | 105 | 90 | -15 | | **Corn - Import Profit** | 306 | 290 | 262 | 223 | 216 | -7 | | **Starch - Heilongjiang** | 2750 | 2750 | 2750 | 2750 | 2750 | 0 | | **Starch - Weifang** | 2850 | 2850 | 2850 | 2800 | 2800 | 0 | | **Starch - Basis** | 237 | 225 | 223 | 254 | 270 | 16 | | **Starch - Processing Profit** | 9 | 86 | 96 | 126 | - | - | [3] Market Analysis - **Corn**: New - season corn has been listed. Short - term prices will be weak due to concentrated supply. Mid - to long - term, focus on the game between farmers and traders. With increased production and lower costs, prices are approaching cost. Low prices and good quality may trigger farmers' resistance to selling, leading to a price rebound [4]. - **Starch**: After the holiday, raw material prices are down, but starch price adjustment is limited due to high production costs. Short - term, lower raw material prices and rising inventory will suppress starch prices. Mid - to long - term, price drops may stimulate downstream replenishment and support prices [4]. Group 3: Sugar Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Sugar - Liuzhou** | 5890 | 5870 | 5870 | 5850 | 5850 | 0 | | **Sugar - Nanning** | 5780 | 5800 | 5800 | 5800 | 5810 | 10 | | **Sugar - Kunming** | 5810 | 5820 | 5820 | - | 5780 | - | | **Sugar - Liuzhou Basis** | 397 | 342 | 374 | 380 | 453 | 73 | | **Sugar - Thai Import Profit** | 232 | 160 | 202 | - | - | - | | **Sugar - Brazilian Import Profit** | 414 | 341 | 384 | - | - | - | | **Sugar - Zhengzhou Warehouse Receipts** | 8968 | 8898 | 8867 | 8681 | 8488 | -193 | [5] Market Analysis - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season. Brazil's yield and sugar - extraction rate are low, and the sugar - making ratio is high, increasing production uncertainty. The domestic market follows the international market, with imported sugar arriving and downward pressure on prices [5]. Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data | Indicator | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Cotton - 3128** | 14545 | 14500 | 14500 | 14450 | 14425 | -25 | | **Cotton - Imported M - grade US Cotton** | 75.2 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 73.6 | 73.4 | - | | **Cotton - CotlookA(FE)** | 76.9 | 76.6 | 76.1 | 75.3 | - | - | | **Cotton - Import Profit** | 1059 | 1063 | 1152 | 1214 | - | - | | **Cotton - Warehouse Receipts + Forecast** | 3103 | 3041 | 2970 | 2898 | 2875 | -23 | | **Cotton Yarn - Vietnamese Yarn Spot** | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 0 | | **Cotton Yarn - Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit** | 267 | 200 | 219 | 205 | 203 | -2 | | **Cotton Yarn - 32S Spinning Profit** | -507 | -465 | -465 | -412 | -386 | 26 | [16] Market Analysis - Cotton is in a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom. Downside is limited, and focus on demand changes [6]. Group 5: Eggs Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 - 14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Eggs - Hebei** | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.89 | 2.78 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Liaoning** | 3.33 | 2.93 | 2.82 | 2.71 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Shandong** | 3.45 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.60 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Henan** | 3.45 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.60 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Hubei** | 3.53 | 3.02 | 2.93 | 2.70 | 0.05 | | **Eggs - Basis** | 731 | 420 | 461 | 245 | -113.00 | | **Eggs - White - feather Broiler** | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.38 | -0.02 | | **Eggs - Yellow - feather Broiler** | 3.65 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Pigs** | 19.31 | 18.64 | 18.85 | 18.48 | 0.01 | [12] Market Analysis - Before the holiday, there was high uncertainty about holiday consumption and post - holiday restocking. Spot prices dropped 12.5% during the holiday, and the futures market declined after the holiday. In the short term, supply is high, demand is seasonally low, and prices are expected to be weak. Focus on the pace of culling hens, which can support prices [12]. Group 6: Apples Price Data | Indicator | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Apples - Shandong 80 First and Second - grade** | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 0.00 | | **Apples - Shaanxi 70 Common** | - | - | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 | | **Apples - 1 - month Basis** | -1117.00 | -1133.00 | -1244.00 | -1138.00 | -1164.00 | -26.00 | | **Apples - 5 - month Basis** | -933.00 | -1022.00 | -1175.00 | -1127.00 | -1161.00 | -34.00 | | **Apples - 10 - month Basis** | -1688.00 | -1680.00 | -1675.00 | -1650.00 | -1700.00 | -50.00 | [12][13] Market Analysis - In the new season, apples in the western region are being bag - removed, and those in Shandong are delayed due to rain. Production in the west may increase slightly, but tree - felling is a problem. Shandong may see a 20% reduction. Overall, production is similar to last year, and quality is affected in some areas. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan/jin [13]. Group 7: Pigs Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Pigs - Henan Kaifeng** | 12.43 | 11.28 | 11.18 | 10.93 | 10.98 | 0.05 | | **Pigs - Hubei Xiangyang** | 12.30 | 11.25 | 11.05 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 0.00 | | **Pigs - Shandong Linyi** | 12.67 | 11.67 | 11.27 | 10.97 | 11.07 | 0.10 | | **Pigs - Anhui Hefei** | 12.95 | 11.70 | 11.30 | 11.25 | 11.30 | 0.05 | | **Pigs - Jiangsu Nantong** | 13.00 | 11.75 | 11.30 | 11.30 | 11.35 | 0.05 | | **Pigs - Basis** | 75 | -315 | -140 | -195 | -470 | -275.00 | [13] Market Analysis - Releasing short - term pressure may strengthen policy expectations for a production inflection point next year. Short - term rebounds due to low prices are possible, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. Short - term supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and prices are at new lows. Focus on the pace of slaughter, diseases, and policies [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Short - term rebound height is limited, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans are oscillating weakly, and the upside space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound slightly [2][11]. - Soybean: Rebound and oscillate [2][11]. - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grains [2][14]. - Sugar: Range - bound oscillation [2][19]. - Cotton: The market continues to focus on the listing of new cotton [2][24]. - Eggs: The peak season is coming to an end, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [2][29]. - Pigs: The bottom of the spot market has not appeared, and short positions should be held [2][31]. - Peanuts: Oscillate weakly [2][34]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Palm oil and Soybean oil Fundamental Data - Futures: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,236 yuan/ton during the day session (+0.15%), 9,278 yuan/ton at night (+0.45%); Soybean oil主力 closed at 8,162 yuan/ton during the day session (-0.37%), 8,178 yuan/ton at night (+0.20%) [5]. - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,230 yuan/ton (+60); First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,550 yuan/ton (+30) [5]. - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 6 yuan/ton; Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 388 yuan/ton [5]. Macro and Industry News - Global palm oil and soybean oil prices are expected to rise by 100 - 150 dollars/ton from January to June 2026 due to supply tightening [6]. - India's edible oil imports in the 2025/26 fiscal year are expected to increase by 4.6% to a record 17.1 million tons, driven by a surge in palm oil purchases [8]. - From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 3.19% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.18% month - on - month, and production decreased by 4.14% month - on - month [9]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25, 2025 were estimated to be 795,947 tons, a 14.73% decrease from the same period last month [9]. 2. Soybean meal and Soybean Fundamental Data - Futures: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3935 yuan/ton during the day session (+0.13%), 3938 yuan/ton at night (-0.05%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2937 yuan/ton during the day session (-0.81%), 2936 yuan/ton at night (-0.44%) [11]. - Spot: In Shandong, the spot basis of soybean meal was M2601 + 40/+50/+70/+80, etc. [11]. Macro and Industry News - On September 26, 2025, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher, but due to China's large - scale purchases of Argentine soybeans this week, the purchases of US supplies were insufficient, causing soybean futures to fall for the second consecutive week [11][13]. 3. Corn Fundamental Data - Futures: C2511 closed at 2178 yuan/ton during the day session (+0.55%), 2184 yuan/ton at night (+0.28%); C2601 closed at 2139 yuan/ton during the day session (+0.14%), 2144 yuan/ton at night (+0.23%) [14]. - Spot: The price in Guangdong Shekou was 2440 yuan/ton (+20) [14]. Macro and Industry News - The northern corn collection port price decreased by 20 yuan/ton in some areas; the price in Guangdong Shekou increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [15]. 4. Sugar Fundamental Data - Futures: The futures main price was 5478 yuan/ton (-7) [19]. - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5840 yuan/ton (0) [19]. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year [19]. - As of September 27, 2025, India's monsoon precipitation was 7.5% higher than the long - term average [19]. - Brazil's sugar exports decreased, raising concerns about global consumption [19]. 5. Cotton Fundamental Data - Futures: CF2601 closed at 13405 yuan/ton during the day session (-0.92%), 13490 yuan/ton at night (+0.63%) [24]. - Spot: The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14677 yuan/ton (0) [24]. Macro and Industry News - The cotton spot market is mainly pre - selling new cotton for the 2025/26 season, with stable prices and slightly more concessions [25]. - The ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate around 66 cents/pound last Friday, and the poor export sales of US cotton limited its upward momentum [26]. 6. Eggs Fundamental Data - Futures: Eggs 2510 closed at 2940 yuan/500 kg (-1.24%); Eggs 2601 closed at 3354 yuan/500 kg (-0.33%) [29]. - Spot: The Liaoning spot price was 3.40 yuan/jin (-0.10) [29]. 7. Pigs Fundamental Data - Futures: Pigs 2511 closed at 12575 yuan/ton (-110); Pigs 2601 closed at 13100 yuan/ton (-210) [31]. - Spot: The Henan spot price was 12580 yuan/ton (0) [31]. 8. Peanuts Fundamental Data - Futures: PK510 closed at 7788 yuan/ton (+0.23%); PK511 closed at 7798 yuan/ton (+0.41%) [34]. - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8500 yuan/ton (-60) [34]. Macro and Industry News - In the Henan Zhengyang area, the price of Baisha common peanuts was 4.1 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and in most producing areas, the prices were stable [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Protein Meal**: In the short - term, the domestic supply of soybeans has great pressure, and the temporary cancellation of export tax in Argentina drives the downward movement of soybean meal. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. However, due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will fluctuate within a range [3][5]. - **Oils**: The center of the oil market is supported by factors such as low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil from the US biodiesel policy draft, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and expected decline in export volume due to growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia. In the medium - term, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips after stabilization [9]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as the record - high domestic sugar imports in August and a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. However, from a technical perspective, there may be a short - term rebound [12]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the growth of the downstream industrial chain's operating rate is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month. So, the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is bearish. But due to the low domestic cotton inventory and relatively low prices, there may be support below, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong due to the expected marginal improvement in supply - demand and capital game. It is recommended to wait and watch in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price of pigs is showing a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market is expected to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rebounded weakly. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax is bearish for the international soybean system. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell by about 60 yuan/ton, and the transaction was good with high pick - up volume. Last week, the domestic port soybean inventory decreased by 700,000 tons, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 90,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The total scale of about $7 billion for soybeans, corn, and wheat in Argentina corresponds to approximately 7 - 8 million tons of soybean products (converted to soybeans). The supply of global protein raw materials is in surplus, and Brazil may continue to expand its planting area [3]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, there may be a downward trend. In the medium - term, the strategy is to short - sell on rebounds, but the market will fluctuate within a range [5]. Oils - **Market Situation**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports and production showed different trends. On September 23, the Malaysian palm oil's offshore price, import arrival price, and import cost price all declined. On Tuesday, the prices of the three major domestic oils dropped significantly [7]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The export of Malaysian palm oil is still weak year - on - year, indicating low import willingness of demand countries or high production in Indonesia. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax on soybean oil is also bearish for international oils in the short - term [7]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Currently, the strategy is to buy on dips after stabilization [9]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants also declined. Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of September decreased by 11.12% year - on - year [11]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The high domestic sugar imports in August and the significant increase in Brazil's sugar production are bearish factors for sugar prices [12]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend is bearish, but there may be a short - term rebound [12]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall. The spot price of cotton also declined. As of September 19, the operating rates of spinning and weaving factories showed different trends, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased year - on - year. As of September 21, the US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased but was still higher than last year [14]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: It is the consumption season, but the downstream operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month [15]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is bearish, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [15]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: Yesterday, the national egg price was mainly stable, with a few areas seeing price adjustments. The supply was stable, and the overall sales were average [17]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The basic production capacity is still large, but there is room for marginal improvement. The demand has many uncertainties [18]. - **Strategy**: Wait and watch in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price was mainly stable with some areas showing weakness. The supply of pigs was abundant, and the increase in downstream procurement demand was limited [19]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The supply from large - scale farms has recovered more than expected, and the low demand has led to slow sales. There is also panic selling from small farmers [20]. - **Strategy**: Short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks [20].

Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the industry investment rating. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, with new - season corn approaching the market, enterprise demand for old corn is weakening, and prices are running weakly, but the decline is limited due to low inventory. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under the pressure of increased production and lower costs, and may reverse when consumption improves or farmers show reluctance to sell [4]. - Starch: In the short - term, as the cost of purchasing raw corn decreases, enterprises are likely to lower the price of starch to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [4]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil's high - pressure supply during the peak crushing season is weighing on sugar prices. Domestic prices are following the international trend, with imported sugar arriving at ports and processed sugar prices dropping [5]. - Cotton: The price has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low could be the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. - Eggs: Since September, the spot price has rebounded by nearly 40% due to increased demand and traders' "buy - on - rising" mentality. High inventory and cold - storage eggs cap the price increase, but the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost. Monitor the situation of culled hens and cold - storage egg release [10]. - Apples: The new - season apple harvest is approaching. The national output may not differ much from last year. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the price is currently stable. Attention should be paid to the final output [12]. - Pigs: There are policy - related expectations for a capacity inflection point next year, but in the medium - term, supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. The spot price has hit a new low this year, and the futures market is trading on weak reality. Focus on factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [16]. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the price in Changchun remained at 2230 (except for the missing data on the 22nd), the price in Jinzhou fluctuated from 2260 to 2250, and the price in Weifang remained at 2264. The price in Shekou remained at 2420. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2750 and 2850 respectively [3]. - **Analysis**: Short - term price of corn is weakening due to new - season supply, and starch price is expected to decline to reduce inventory. Long - term, both are under price - downward pressure [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased by 40, 30, and 25 respectively. The import profits from Thailand and Brazil increased by 23 each, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [5]. - **Analysis**: International supply pressure from Brazil affects prices, and domestic prices follow the international trend with increasing imported sugar supply [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 75, and the spot price of cotton yarn decreased by 50. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 63, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 29 [7]. - **Analysis**: Cotton price is in a consolidation phase, with limited downside and focus on demand changes [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained stable, while the price in Hubei decreased by 0.11. The basis decreased by 40, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.08 [10]. - **Analysis**: Spot price has rebounded, but high inventory and cold - storage eggs limit the increase, and the price is unlikely to fall below feed cost [10]. Apples - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7500. The 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month basis changed by - 18, 7, and - 11 respectively [11][12]. - **Analysis**: New - season output may be similar to last year, consumption is in the off - season, and price is stable. Monitor the final output [12]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.20, 0.20, 0.10, and 0.20 respectively, while the price in Shandong Linyi remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 170 [16]. - **Analysis**: There are policy expectations for next year, but medium - term supply pressure remains, and the spot price has hit a new low. Focus on slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [16].

Rice - Domestic market shows sufficient supply of early indica rice and regrowth rice, with prices expected to trend weakly due to seasonal consumption decline [2] - Internationally, the rice market is characterized by ample supply, with prices anticipated to remain low [2] Wheat - Domestic wheat market has sufficient supply, with demand from flour and feed industries slowing down, leading to stable prices supported by policy purchases [3] - Globally, wheat supply is abundant as the Northern Hemisphere harvest nears completion, with international prices expected to fluctuate at low levels [3] Corn - Domestic corn market is in a tight balance, with prices expected to remain stable to slightly strong, despite reduced impact from reserve corn auctions [4] - Internationally, corn supply is ample with strong production expectations, leading to a forecast of weak price performance [4] Soybeans - Domestic soybean supply is primarily from state reserves and older beans, with prices expected to remain stable due to seasonal consumption decline [5] - Internationally, U.S. soybeans are in a critical growth stage, with prices likely to fluctuate due to weather speculation [5] Cotton - Domestic cotton commercial inventory continues to decline, with reduced consumption in textiles and apparel, leading to expected price fluctuations [6] - Internationally, the cotton supply remains ample, with demand affected by U.S. tariff policies, resulting in anticipated price volatility [6] Oilseeds - Domestic market sees reduced supply of rapeseed and peanut stocks, with prices expected to remain stable [7] - Internationally, strong production expectations for Canadian canola are noted, with prices expected to trend weakly [7] Sugar - Domestic sugar imports are increasing rapidly, but strong consumption and reduced industrial stocks are expected to keep prices stable [8] - Internationally, Brazil is entering peak sugar production season, while Thailand and India benefit from favorable weather, leading to a forecast of weak price fluctuations [8] Pork - Short-term pork market shows ample supply, but high temperatures and rainfall negatively impact transportation and consumption, leading to expected weak prices [9] - Future expectations indicate stabilization of pork prices as production capacity gradually reduces and the number of large pigs decreases [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term due to new - season supply and cost changes [4]. - Starch is likely to remain bearish in both the short and long term because of high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [4]. - The price of sugar is under pressure in the international market, and the domestic market follows the trend with limited upward movement [7][20]. - Cotton is in a range - bound state, and its downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [10]. - Egg prices may trigger more old - hen culling if the rebound in late August fails to meet expectations [14]. - Apple production in the new season may not differ much from last year, and attention should be paid to the final production determination [18]. - The pig market has short - term positive factors, but medium - term supply pressure still exists, and attention should be paid to various influencing factors [18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the port spot price of corn weakened, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in some regions. The processing profit of starch increased by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, new - season corn is about to be listed, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply increase is limited, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. In the long term, the price is likely to decline under the influence of increased production and lower costs. Starch prices are affected by raw materials, with high inventory and low downstream demand, remaining bearish [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the spot prices in some regions remained stable, the basis changed, and the import profit decreased. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 196 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazil is in the peak crushing season, putting pressure on international sugar prices. The domestic market follows the trend, with imported sugar arriving and processing sugar prices dropping, limiting the upward movement of the futures price [7][20]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 155 yuan/ton, the import profit changed, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 262 [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton is in a range - bound state. If there are no major macro - risks, the price is expected to have limited downward space, and attention should be paid to demand changes [10]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, egg prices in major producing areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 70 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: High temperatures in mid - July and post - plum - rain replenishment drove up egg prices, but weakening and delayed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand led to a decline in prices in early August. If the price rebound in late August fails to meet expectations, more old - hen culling may be triggered [14]. Apples - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, the national inventory decreased by 14, and the basis changed [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: Apple production in the new season may not differ much from last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low. Attention should be paid to the final production determination [18]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the basis decreased by 75 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: There are long - term policy expectations, but medium - term supply pressure remains. There are short - term positive factors such as supply reduction and consumption improvement, and attention should be paid to various influencing factors [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of various futures markets, including soybean, palm oil, live pigs, eggs, and corn, driven by factors such as export demand, weather conditions, and supply dynamics [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybeans rose due to improved export demand expectations and hot weather in production areas, with the good rate remaining stable and no surprises in export inspection data [1] - Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices fell, with rapeseed meal declining more than soybean meal, leading to an expanded price difference [1] - The oil factory's crushing volume decreased to 2.18 million tons last week but is expected to recover to 2.3 million tons this week, indicating sufficient domestic supply and rising inventory [1] Group 3 - BMD palm oil prices increased due to improved export expectations and positive MPOB reports, with Malaysia's July palm oil production rising by 7.09% month-on-month [1] - The report indicated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 4.02% month-on-month, but was lower than expected, while exports rose by 3.82% [1] Group 4 - Live pig futures saw a slight decline of 0.28%, with the average daily price in China at 13.78 yuan/kg, reflecting mixed price movements across regions [1] - The supply side is under pressure, but policy support is present, leading to a view of price fluctuations [1] Group 5 - The main contract for eggs continued to decline, with a daily drop of 2.71%, while the national egg price rose slightly to 3.02 yuan/jin [1] - The short-term fundamentals appear weak, with high levels of egg-laying hens and weak terminal demand, although a rebound in demand is expected in the future [1] Group 6 - Corn futures experienced adjustments with a lack of speculative activity, and the cash market saw weaker transactions due to price declines [1] - The northeastern corn market is weak, with traders selling based on market conditions, while prices in North China remain stable with minor adjustments [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract fell 1.5 to close at 986.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.15%; the September soybean meal contract rose 35 to close at 3,045 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.16%; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 50 to 2,920 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.74%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 98 to close at 2,773 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.66%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 90 to 2,620 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.56% [4]. - U.S. soybeans are in a weak and volatile state. The overall weather in the production areas is good, with a crop good - to - excellent rate of 69%, which is at a relatively high level in the same period. The new - crop export sales of U.S. soybeans slightly exceeded expectations. The cost - effectiveness advantage attracted more purchases from other countries, but the absence of China, the largest buyer, led to a still slow overall sales progress. In China, there is still a supply of near - term soybeans and soybean meal. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply in the distant future is strengthening, and the Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating and slightly rising. Due to factors such as the peak season for aquaculture and the expected decrease in future arrivals, rapeseed meal has a greater upward elasticity [4][7]. - The precipitation in the U.S. soybean production areas is generally at the average level, but the western production areas will be dry in the next two weeks. The crop conditions are good. Attention should be paid to the upcoming USDA report. Under the current import tax rate of U.S. soybeans, it is difficult for them to enter the Chinese market. However, the procurement of old - crop Brazilian soybeans is becoming more difficult, and the premium is running strongly. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply is strengthening, and the domestic futures market may continue to strengthen. For other countries, the cost - effectiveness of U.S. soybeans is prominent, and the purchase volume will also increase. The overseas market may oscillate at a low level. Overall, in the short term, the Dalian soybean meal futures may oscillate and strengthen [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/1 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 986.50 | 988.00 | - 1.50 | - 0.15% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 485.00 | 468.00 | 17.00 | 3.63% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 443.00 | 450.00 | - 7.00 | - 1.56% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 42.65 | - 20.24 | - 22.41 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3045.00 | 3010.00 | 35.00 | 1.16% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2773.00 | 2675.00 | 98.00 | 3.66% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 272.00 | 335.00 | - 63.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2940.00 | 2900.00 | 40.00 | 1.38% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2920.00 | 2870.00 | 50.00 | 1.74% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 125.00 | - 140.00 | 15.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean production area weather: The overall weather in the U.S. soybean production areas is good, with a crop good - to - excellent rate of 69%. The precipitation is generally at the average level, but the western production areas will be dry in the next two weeks. The USDA report is about to be released [4][7][9]. - U.S. soybean export situation: The new - crop export sales of U.S. soybeans slightly exceeded expectations. The cost - effectiveness advantage attracted more purchases from other countries, but China, the largest buyer, was absent, and the overall sales progress was still slow. As of the week ending July 31, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market year were 468,000 tons, and the cumulative export sales of 2024/2025 U.S. soybeans had completed the USDA's expected target. The net export sales of 2025/2026 U.S. soybeans in the current week were 545,000 tons, and the cumulative sales in this year were 3.58 million tons, while China had not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans [4][7][9]. - Domestic supply situation: There is still a supply of near - term soybeans and soybean meal in China. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply in the distant future is strengthening. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week; the outstanding contracts were 6.7687 million tons, an increase of 2.5386 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.237 million tons, an increase of 152,000 tons from the previous week [7][9][10]. - Market performance: The Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating and slightly rising. Due to factors such as the peak season for aquaculture and the expected decrease in future arrivals, rapeseed meal has a greater upward elasticity [4][7]. 3.3 Industry News - StoneX predicts that the U.S. soybean production in 2025 will reach 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. The predicted soybean production in Brazil in 2025/26 will be 177.2 million tons, an increase of 5.6% from the previous year due to an increase in planting area and crop yield [12]. - Celeres estimates that the soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025/26 will increase by 962,000 hectares or 2% to 48.6 million hectares. If this increase is realized and the yield slightly increases, Brazil is expected to achieve a record production of 177.2 million tons [12]. - As of the week ending July 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada was 67.84%. Due to recent wet weather, the rapeseed harvest in the EU 27 and the UK has been delayed, and the predicted rapeseed production in 2025/26 is 20.3 million tons, the same as the previous forecast [13][14]. - Safras & Mercado reports that the sales volume of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 has reached 16.8% of the expected production, and the sales volume in 2024/25 has reached 78.4% of the expected production [13]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso, Brazil from July 28 to August 1 was 390 reais per ton, down from 435.55 reais per ton in the previous week [13]. - As of the week ending July 30, the cumulative sales of 2024/25 soybeans by Argentine farmers were 27.9605 million tons, and the cumulative export sales registration volume was 8.04 million tons [14]. - The predicted soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025/26 will increase at the slowest rate in nearly 20 years, with an estimated planting area of 48.13 million hectares, an increase of 1.43% from the previous year. The predicted soybean production is 166.56 million tons, lower than the previous year's 168.74 million tons [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the crushing profit by region, the trend of soybean meal main contracts, the spot price of soybean meal in each region, the CBOT net position of managed funds, the spot - futures spread of soybean meal, the precipitation and temperature in U.S. soybean production areas, the flowering rate and good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans to the world, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative sales volume of new - crop U.S. soybeans, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans to China, the weekly export volume of U.S. soybeans, the U.S. oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume and crushing start - up rate of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises [16][21][24].