证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 02 日 永辉超市（601933.SH） 调改持续推进，供应链优化提效 消费品/商业 公司调改持续推进，同时优化尾部老店，门店数量减少致短期收入波动。品质 零售大势所趋。永辉超市为国内商超龙头，生鲜及供应链根基扎实，当前坚定 "胖东来"路线，围绕商品强化选品+品控+差异化，围绕服务优化环境+做重服 务+提升员工状态；叠加胖东来倾力帮扶输出顶层设计及科学方法，名创入股有 望在日百品类注入更多可能。当前公司调改步入轨道，长期看公司品质零售路 线空间广阔。维持"增持"评级。 财务数据与估值 当前股价：5.16 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 9075 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 9075 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 46.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 46.8 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 0.5 | | ROE（TTM） | -45.1 | | 资产负债率 | 88.7% | | 广东骏才国际商贸有限公司 主要股东 | | | 主要股东持股比例 | 29.4% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对 ...

Core Insights - Yonghui Supermarket has launched its first store under the "Fat Donglai" model in Zunyi, which serves as a nationwide prototype for store renovations, focusing on comprehensive upgrades in product structure, shopping environment, and service systems [1] Group 1: Store Renovation and Product Strategy - The store has eliminated nearly 70% of its products, reducing from 20,543 items to 8,374, while introducing 4,345 new products, achieving an 80% similarity in product structure with the Fat Donglai model [1] - The proportion of imported products has increased to 12%, creating a competitive edge through a combination of local characteristics, quality selection, and similar offerings to Fat Donglai [1] - In the fresh food section, the store has implemented targeted planting partnerships to shorten the supply chain and reduce waste, while also enhancing customer trust through packaged fresh products [3] Group 2: Customer Experience Enhancements - The store layout has been redesigned, with shelf heights reduced from 2.4 meters to 1.6 meters and main aisles widened to 2.4 meters, improving visibility and customer comfort [3] - Various customer-friendly features have been introduced, such as labeling bulk food items with weight estimates and providing isolation bags for separating products [3] - Service upgrades include customized offerings at the meat counter, live fish services in the seafood section, and free cleaning and cutting for fruits, alongside strict freshness control policies [3] Group 3: Employee Welfare and Corporate Strategy - The store has increased its staff from 75 to 180, with an average salary rise to 4,000 yuan, and benefits such as 10 days of paid annual leave after one year of service [4] - The renovation reflects Yonghui's commitment to enhancing employee happiness and motivation, which is integral to the Fat Donglai model [4] - Yonghui aims to deepen its involvement in regional economic value reconstruction through localized development and quality retail strategies, aspiring to become a national supermarket better suited for mainstream Chinese families [4]

Core Viewpoint - Yonghui Supermarket has faced significant challenges, resulting in continuous losses over the past four years, totaling over 9.5 billion yuan, indicating a need for a strategic transformation and a reevaluation of its business model [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yonghui reported a revenue of 67.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.07%, with a net profit loss of 1.465 billion yuan compared to a loss of 1.329 billion yuan in the previous year [3]. - The revenue decline is attributed to intense competition in the retail sector and the company's proactive store optimization and strategic transformation efforts [3]. Store Closures and Adjustments - Yonghui closed 232 underperforming stores in 2024, accelerating the pace of closures in key cities [5]. - The company is adopting a strategy of "eliminating old products and introducing new ones," with some stores offering discounts to attract customers, although the discounts have been criticized as misleading [5][6]. Store Transformation and Strategy - Yonghui has implemented the "Pang Donglai" model, initiating a "quality retail" strategic transformation, with 31 stores upgraded by the end of 2024, and plans for further increases in the number of transformed stores [3][10]. - Despite initial success in attracting customers to transformed stores, there are concerns about sustaining customer traffic beyond the initial months [10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is encouraged to focus on its unique strengths and develop its own competitive products, particularly in the wine sector, where it has begun to see some success with its self-selected wine offerings [13]. - The next 12-18 months are critical for Yonghui to navigate the challenges in the retail industry and establish a new positioning that leverages its scale advantages [13].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, showing revenue growth but a decline in net profit, indicating a mixed performance in the current market environment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 18.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 132 million yuan, a decrease of 3.26% [1] - In Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.129 billion yuan, up 6.31% year-on-year, with a net profit of -56 million yuan, an improvement from -72 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 4.941 billion yuan, down 4.77% year-on-year, and net profit was 142 million yuan, a decrease of 3.59% [1] Group 2: Store Expansion and Efficiency - The company opened 140 new stores in 2024, bringing the total to 1,100, with 957 direct-operated and 143 franchised stores [2] - In Q1 2025, the company opened 8 direct-operated and 7 franchised stores while closing 20 underperforming stores, resulting in a total of 1,095 stores at the end of the quarter [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing store locations and improving operational efficiency by closing unprofitable stores [2] Group 3: Online Sales and Supply Chain - Online sales grew by 13.2% in 2024, with a total of 3.31 million customer visits to stores, achieving a conversion rate of 40% [3] - By the end of 2024, online sales accounted for 7.16% of total sales, reflecting the company's efforts to enhance its online presence [3] - The company is strengthening its supply chain strategy and increasing the proportion of private label and customized products to 13.63% [3] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margins for various store formats were 20.82% for comprehensive supermarkets, 19.41% for community fresh food supermarkets, 19.72% for rural supermarkets, and 22.62% for other formats, showing an increase compared to the previous year [4] - The company's expense ratio for the full year 2024 and Q1 2025 was 21.97% and 19.83%, respectively, indicating a slight decrease year-on-year [4] - The net profit margin for the full year 2024 and Q1 2025 was 2.87% and 0.72%, respectively, reflecting a stable performance despite challenges [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company aims to transition from scale retail to quality retail, focusing on product strength and enhancing supply chain efficiency [4] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 201 million yuan and 243 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 272 million yuan [4]

Core Insights - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, with performance in line with expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 67.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.465 billion yuan, compared to -1.329 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 17.479 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 19.32%, primarily due to a strategic and operational transformation that resulted in the closure of 273 stores compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 148 million yuan, a significant year-on-year decrease of 79.96%, mainly due to changes in product structure and procurement models, as well as a fair value loss of 172 million yuan from Advantage Solutions stock [1] Group 2: Store Transformation and Online Business - The company actively pursued supply chain reforms, accelerating store transformation, with 7 new supermarket openings and 232 closures in 2024, resulting in a total of 775 stores by the end of 2024, a decrease of 225 stores year-on-year [2] - The company emphasized a "quality retail" reform direction, with 61 stores modified by April 25, 2024, and an expectation to reach 124 modified stores by the end of June [2] - Online business revenue for 2024 was 14.6 billion yuan, accounting for 21.7% of total revenue, with the "Yonghui Life" app surpassing 118 million registered members [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 20.46% and 21.50%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.78 and 1.35 percentage points [3] - The gross margin pressure was attributed to the optimization of product structure and procurement models during store adjustments, with a focus on long-term partnerships with core suppliers [3] - The company’s expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 20.78%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points year-on-year, with specific expenses for sales, management, R&D, and finance reported [3] Group 4: Strategic Developments - On September 23, 2024, a strategic shareholder, Guangdong Jun Cai International Trade Co., acquired 2.668 billion unrestricted shares of Yonghui Supermarket, making it the largest shareholder, with a focus on a "quality retail" development strategy [4] - The partnership aims to enhance private brand development, supply chain reforms, and employee welfare initiatives [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating that consumption will be boosted and domestic demand expanded in 2025, with significant improvements expected from store transformations [5] - The company plans to close approximately 300 stores in 2025, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and a new forecast for 2027 [5] - Revenue projections for 2025 have been adjusted to 60.01 billion yuan, with a PS valuation method applied, indicating a potential upside of 13% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with a revenue of 67.574 billion yuan, down 14.07% year-on-year, and a net profit of -1.465 billion yuan, indicating challenges in store performance and profitability [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 67.574 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.07% year-on-year, and a net profit of -1.465 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of -2.410 billion yuan, resulting in a non-recurring net profit margin of 0.08%, down 1.05 percentage points year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.479 billion yuan, down 19.32% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.148 billion yuan, a decline of 79.96%, and a non-recurring net profit of 0.137 billion yuan, down 77.07%, leading to a non-recurring net profit margin of 2.76%, down 1.98 percentage points year-on-year [1] Store Operations - The revenue fluctuations are primarily attributed to a reduction in the number of stores, with 232 stores closed in 2024, leaving a total of 775 stores by the end of the year [1] - As of Q1 2025, the company continued to reduce its store count, completing only 47 store renovations, which contributed minimally to sales [1] - However, the renovated stores have begun to show profitability, with 41 stores that have been open for over three months generating a profit of 14.7 million yuan in March and a total profit of 74.72 million yuan for the quarter [1] Business Segments - The company reported revenue from various segments in 2024: food and daily necessities at 34.943 billion yuan, fresh and processed food at 28.825 billion yuan, other income at 2.673 billion yuan, and rental income at 1.133 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year declines of 14.03%, 12.82%, 28.08%, and 6.77% [2] - The gross margins for these segments were 18.81%, 12.79%, 99.96%, and 78.66%, with slight year-on-year changes [2] Cost Management - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 was 20.46%, down 0.78 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses accounting for 19.33%, 2.65%, 0.27%, and 1.68% respectively, showing an increase in expense ratios [2] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 16.63%, 2.45%, 0.24%, and 1.46%, indicating a mixed trend in cost management [2] Strategic Focus - The company is shifting towards quality retail and restructuring supplier relationships, focusing on core suppliers, key products, and long-term strategies while opposing frequent supplier changes [2] - As of April 2025, the company has engaged in procurement discussions with over 300 quality supply chain enterprises, including suppliers for major U.S. retailers [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in store efficiency as it enters a deeper phase of transformation, with projected revenues of 61.483 billion yuan, 92.247 billion yuan, and 108 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year change of -9.01%, +50.04%, and +17.08% respectively [3] - The projected net profits for the same period are 0.63 billion yuan, 1.105 billion yuan, and 1.819 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 790X, 45X, and 27X [3]

（以上议案同意票8票、反对票0票、弃权票0票） 二、关于《永辉超市股份有限公司2024年度经营工作报告》的议案 会议审议通过了《2024年度经营工作报告》。该报告回顾总结了公司2024 年度主要经营和业务支持情 况以及2025年的发展和经营计划。 （以上议案同意票8票、反对票0票、弃权票0票） 三、关于公司2024年度财务决算和2025年度财务预算的议案 2025年，公司将围绕"品质零售"为核心的战略定位，通过 "三提两降"（提人效、提业绩、提毛利，降 成本、降费率）来实现企业转型。 （以上议案同意票8票、反对票0票、弃权票0票） 四、关于公司2024年度利润分配的议案 具体内容详见公司同日披露于上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）的《永辉超市股份有限公司2024 年年度利润分配 方案公告》（公告编号：2025-019）。 （以上议案同意票8票、反对票0票、弃权票0票） 五、关于公司2024年度关联交易执行情况及2025年关联交易计划的议案 具体内容详见公司同日披露于上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）的《永辉超市股份有限公司关于 公司2024年度关联交易执行情况及2025年度关联 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yonghui Supermarket reported a revenue of 67.6 billion yuan for 2024, with a net loss of 1.465 billion yuan. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.48 billion yuan and a net profit of 148 million yuan, indicating a strategic transformation impacting revenue and profitability [1][2]. Financial Performance - For 2024, Yonghui Supermarket's revenue was 67.6 billion yuan, with a net loss of 1.465 billion yuan. In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 17.48 billion yuan and a net profit of 148 million yuan [1]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to the strategic transformation and the closure of 273 stores compared to the previous year, leading to a decrease in overall income [1]. - The net profit decline was primarily due to a 1.35 percentage point drop in gross margin, influenced by the optimization of product structure and procurement strategies during store renovations [1]. Store Transformation and Strategy - As of March 31, 2025, Yonghui Supermarket completed renovations on 47 stores, which significantly improved customer traffic and sales. The company aims to implement the "Pang Donglai" model for quality retail, with 61 stores already transformed under this model [2]. - The company plans to exceed 124 renovated stores by June 2025 and aims for 300 stores by the Lunar New Year in 2026, indicating a focused effort on store transformation [2]. Supply Chain and Online Business - Yonghui Supermarket is in procurement discussions with over 300 quality supply chain enterprises, including suppliers for major U.S. supermarkets [3]. - Online business revenue reached 3.15 billion yuan, accounting for 18.02% of total revenue. The "Yonghui Life" app covered 670 stores, generating sales of 1.75 billion yuan with a daily average of 231,000 orders and a monthly repurchase rate of 47.6% [3].

Core Insights - Yonghui Supermarket reported a total revenue of 67.574 billion yuan for the year 2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.465 billion yuan. In Q1 2025, the revenue was 17.479 billion yuan, with a net profit of 148 million yuan [1] - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on the "Pang Donglai" model adjustment, store optimization, and supply chain innovation, marking a critical phase in the "Quality Yonghui" reform [1] - As of the end of March 2025, 41 "steady-state stores" (stores open for more than three months) achieved a cumulative net profit of 14.7 million yuan [1] Store Transformation and Performance - Yonghui Supermarket has completed the transformation of 61 stores under the "Pang Donglai" model, with expectations to exceed 124 transformed stores by June 2025 and a target of 300 stores before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [1] - The next 12-18 months are anticipated to be a concentrated release period for the results of the reform, driven by an increase in the proportion of transformed stores and deepening supply chain reforms [1] Supply Chain Strategy - At the 2025 Global Supplier Conference, the company emphasized a supply chain upgrade strategy focusing on core suppliers, core big products, and long-termism, while opposing frequent changes in suppliers [2] - Yonghui Supermarket has initiated a "15-day rapid shelving" green channel for export-restricted enterprises, providing brand promotion and new product development support [2] - As of April 22, 2025, the company has entered procurement discussions with over 300 quality supply chain enterprises, including many Chinese manufacturers supplying to U.S. supermarkets [2] Future Development Strategy - The company remains committed to the "Pang Donglai" model and quality retail strategy, aiming to create a national supermarket more suitable for mainstream Chinese families [3] - The focus will be on core big products, with a goal to incubate 100 billion-level products in collaboration with suppliers, establishing itself as a quality choice [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yonghui Supermarket is undergoing a strategic transformation towards a "quality retail" model, focusing on store optimization and supply chain innovation, with significant progress in its "Pang Donglai" model reform and achieving sales and profit targets in the first quarter of 2025 [1][2][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, Yonghui Supermarket achieved a total revenue of 67.574 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.465 billion yuan [1] - As of the end of March 2025, 41 "steady-state stores" that had been operational for over three months achieved a cumulative net profit of 14.7 million yuan [2] Strategic Transformation - The company has completed the "Pang Donglai" model reform in 61 stores, with expectations to exceed 124 reformed stores by June 2025 and a target of 300 stores by the Lunar New Year of 2026 [2] - Yonghui Supermarket is committed to enhancing its supply chain and product quality, focusing on core suppliers and long-term partnerships, while rejecting frequent supplier changes [3] Supply Chain Innovation - The supply chain transformation is a key driver for Yonghui's shift to "quality retail," with a focus on connecting with foreign trade enterprises to enhance supply chain efficiency and product renewal [3] - The company has initiated a "15-day rapid listing" green channel for foreign trade enterprises affected by global supply chain disruptions, facilitating over 300 procurement negotiations with quality suppliers [4] Social Responsibility and Community Engagement - Yonghui Supermarket is actively supporting foreign trade enterprises and enhancing food safety measures, investing over 100 million yuan in food safety upgrades and engaging in community support initiatives [4] - The company emphasizes its role as a "national supermarket," aiming to provide consumers with affordable access to international quality products while contributing to social growth [5]