【导读】科技股大涨，俄罗斯降息50个基点 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，周五泰勒在香港拍了一天的视频，今晚回到深圳继续写稿，现在先关注一下晚间海外市场的表现。 科技股继续反弹 12月19日晚间，美股三大指数大涨，道指涨超200点，纳指涨近1%。 大型科技股带头反弹，投资者一边防着创纪录规模的期权到期可能引发的剧烈波动，一边重新押注风险资产。 超大盘股中，英伟达领涨，甲骨文大涨7%。过去几天，人工智能概念股的波动明显加剧。市场在重新评估美联储后续降息空 间的同时，股指也出现了较大幅度的来回拉扯。 | 了 筛选 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = □' | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sandisk Corporation | | 234.86 | +7.02% | | us SNDK | | | | | 甲骨文 | | 192.49 | +6.92% | | us ORCL | | | | | 美光科技 | | 262.98 | +5.81% | | us MU | | | | | 美国超威公司 | | 210.22 | +4.55% | | US AMD | | | | | ...

随着温和的通胀数据为美联储的政策路径提供支撑，美股市场在经历了近期的震荡后正蓄势待发，投资 者期待历史性的"圣诞行情"能为2025年画上圆满句号。 受周四公布的通胀报告提振，标普500指数上涨0.8%，打破了连续四天的下跌趋势。此前，由于对AI基 础设施建设支出的审查趋严，加上对美联储2026年降息步伐预期的调整，美股在12月开局表现疲软，一 度令寄希望于年末传统的投资者感到不安。 然而，最新的经济数据缓解了市场对通胀反弹的担忧，以科技股为首的板块随即反弹，衍生品市场交易 显示，投资者逢低增持AI、半导体资产。Edward Jones高级全球投资策略师Angelo Kourkafas指出： 本周的经济数据进一步巩固了美联储将保持降息倾向的预期。虽然投资者可能会在未来几天 锁定利润，从而引发一定的抛售压力，但最新的数据"很可能为今年'圣诞行情'的启动亮起 了绿灯"。 同时，资金流向和历史数据也为多头提供了心理支撑。高盛数据显示，过去九周资金流入美股达1000亿 美元，散户与机构情绪积极，波动率降至年内低位。据城堡证券（Citadel Securities）汇编的数据显 示，自1928年以来，标普500指数在12 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "Santa Claus Rally," which refers to the seasonal phenomenon where U.S. stocks tend to rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January [3][5] - Historical data from 2015 to 2024 shows that the actual performance of SPY (S&P 500) and QQQ (Nasdaq 100) during this period does not support the traditional belief in a strong Santa Claus Rally [5][10] - SPY had a 70% probability of rising during this period, with an average return of +0.23%, while QQQ had only a 40% probability and an average return of -0.19% [5][7] Group 2 - The article highlights that the Santa Claus Rally theory has significantly failed in the last three years, with SPY and QQQ showing weak performance in 2022, 2023, and 2024 [10][11] - The maximum drawdown for SPY during this period was only -2.10% in 2015, indicating a low volatility environment despite the weak returns [11] - The article suggests a trading strategy called "Sell Put," which involves selling out-of-the-money put options, as historical data shows that significant declines are rare during this time [10][14] Group 3 - The recommended strategy involves selling put options with a strike price set at 96%-97% of the current index price, which corresponds to a potential drawdown of 3-4% [14][15] - The strategy aims to generate income from the premiums received, provided the index does not fall below the strike price at expiration [15][19] - The article emphasizes the importance of risk management, particularly the need for sufficient capital to cover potential obligations if the options are exercised [16][22]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones index closed down 0.09% at 48,416.56 points, the S&P 500 index fell 0.16% to 6,816.51 points, and the Nasdaq index decreased by 0.59% to 23,057.41 points, influenced by declines in AI-related stocks such as Broadcom and Oracle, which dropped over 5% and 2% respectively [2] - Investors shifted focus to economically sensitive sectors like consumer discretionary and industrials, while heavily buying healthcare stocks [2] Analyst Insights - Aptus Capital Advisors' stock chief David Wagner noted a prevailing sentiment of aversion towards AI trades, but believes that the market will continue to be dominated by leading companies, referred to as the "Seven Giants," due to their underestimated operational leverage [3] - Wagner expressed that as long as revenue maintains growth, these companies will continue to expand profit margins and become high-return beneficiaries in the coming year [3] Economic Data and Market Outlook - Wagner is not overly concerned about the current market performance, describing the pullback as "healthy" and "normal," suggesting that there is still potential for upward movement despite the partial realization of the "Santa Claus rally" [4] - Upcoming economic data, including November non-farm payrolls and October retail sales, is expected to set the market tone, having been delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown [4] Stock Performance - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Nvidia up 0.73%, Apple down 1.50%, Microsoft down 0.78%, Google down 0.35%, Amazon down 1.61%, Meta up 0.59%, and Tesla up 3.52% [5] - Chinese concept stocks saw a widespread decline, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.17%, Alibaba down 3.59%, JD down 2.00%, and Pinduoduo down 1.39% [5] Company News - Nasdaq has submitted a proposal to the SEC to extend trading hours from 16 hours to 23 hours on weekdays, aiming to implement a "23/5" trading model [6][7] - Nvidia announced the release of the Nemotron 3 series open-source models, which include Nano, Super, and Ultra versions featuring a hybrid Mamba-Transformer architecture [8] - Elon Musk's net worth surged to $677 billion, primarily due to the increased valuation of SpaceX, which reportedly reached $800 billion, doubling from $400 billion in August [9] - Strategy, a major Bitcoin holder, purchased 10,645 Bitcoins for $9.8 billion, raising its total holdings to 671,268 Bitcoins with an average purchase price of $74,972 [10] - Sanofi has expanded its collaboration with Dren Bio to jointly develop next-generation B-cell depletion therapies for various autoimmune diseases, with Dren Bio receiving an upfront payment of $100 million and potential future payments of up to $1.7 billion [11]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant difference in the timing of the spring rally between the Hong Kong stock market and the A-share market, with the former typically occurring from Christmas to the Lunar New Year, while the latter occurs after the Lunar New Year until the Two Sessions [8][9]. - Historical data shows that during the past 15 years, the probability of the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising during the spring rally period is 80.0% and 72.7% respectively, with median gains of 4.7% and 6.3% [13][24]. - The report suggests that constructing a trading strategy focused on the spring rally in Hong Kong stocks has historically yielded positive returns, indicating a high probability of profit when investing during this period [24][25]. Group 2 - The report discusses conditions under which the spring rally may fail or be delayed, noting that in 2014, a significant liquidity shock from overseas markets led to the absence of a spring rally, while in 2016 and 2024, risk events caused delays [27][28]. - Factors contributing to a strong spring rally include unexpected liquidity easing and positive macroeconomic data, as seen in 2021 and 2023, where the Hang Seng Index rose by 14.7% and 15.1% respectively [33][34]. - Current concerns regarding liquidity include the impact of Japanese carry trades, the peak of stock unlocks, and the hawkish stance of the new Federal Reserve chair, but the report concludes that these factors are unlikely to prevent the spring rally in 2026 [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - The market's initial optimism following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and Jerome Powell's positive remarks quickly dissipated due to Oracle's significant stock price drop, reigniting concerns over the high valuations of popular AI tech stocks like Oracle, Nvidia, and Broadcom [1] Group 1: Oracle's Financial Performance - Oracle's recent earnings report revealed a substantial decline in cash flow, dropping to negative $10 billion, and sales figures that fell short of market expectations, raising alarms about the company's reliance on long-term losses and competition from OpenAI [1][2] - Despite a record cloud computing order backlog of $523 billion and a non-GAAP earnings per share that exceeded expectations, the actual profit was inflated by a one-time gain of $2.7 billion, leading to skepticism about the quality of Oracle's earnings [2][3] - The company's cloud infrastructure revenue grew by 66% to $4.079 billion, but this was below the anticipated 68%, and software revenue unexpectedly declined by 3%, contributing to overall growth concerns [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Sentiment - Following Oracle's disappointing earnings, Wall Street's focus shifted from order growth to the efficiency of actual order conversion and overall profit margins, with major banks like UBS and Bank of America quickly downgrading Oracle's target price [2][3] - The rapid reversal in investor sentiment regarding Oracle and broader asset classes highlights persistent concerns about an AI bubble, despite recent expectations for further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [4] - The market's uncertainty is compounded by the potential impact of Oracle's performance on other companies closely tied to OpenAI, such as SoftBank, which also experienced significant stock declines [6] Group 3: Broader Implications for AI Sector - The valuation of OpenAI, estimated at $500 billion, and its ambitious spending plans for AI infrastructure have raised questions about its sustainability, especially as competition from Google intensifies [7] - Concerns about OpenAI's ability to manage its financial commitments could lead to severe repercussions for Oracle and other companies in the AI supply chain, as their fortunes are closely linked [7] - Despite the negative sentiment, some market observers maintain a cautious optimism regarding Oracle and the broader stock market, suggesting that the recent volatility may not be entirely unexpected given the significant gains in tech stocks this year [8]

来源：21世纪经济报道 2025年美联储最后一次议息会议即将来临。根据CME FedWatch数据，市场目前押注FOMC在12月会议 上降息25个基点的概率约为87%至89%，显著高于一个月前。 南方财经：你为什么这么认为？为什么整体趋势仍然向上？ 当地时间12月3日，美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）发布的数据显示，今年11月美国私营部门意外减少 约3.2万个就业岗位，远低于市场预期的增加2万个就业岗位。分析认为，该数据反映出私营企业的裁员 情况，加剧了对美国劳动力市场走弱的担忧，基于此，美联储或再度降息25个基点。事实上，美股过去 两周的走势已经提前消化了美联储的降息预期。 在这种"股市强势—通胀温和—降息预期稳固"的复杂环境下，投资者普遍关心：当前市场上涨的真正动 力是什么？美联储12月的降息是否意味着更长的宽松周期？贵金属的强势能否延续至2026年？以及在新 一年即将到来之际，市场是否已经累积潜在风险？围绕这些问题，南方财经记者专访了Spartan Capital Securities首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo。 美股在混杂数据中保持韧性 圣诞行情成为推力 南方财经：首先我们先回顾一下截 ...

Market Overview - US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 slightly up, while the Nasdaq declined [1] - The Dow Jones index closed at 47,888.34, up by 149.02 points (0.31%), S&P 500 at 6,855.81, up by 9.30 points (0.14%), and Nasdaq at 23,512.79, down by 33.11 points (-0.14%) [2] Technology Sector - The technology sector experienced a majority decline, with notable drops in stocks such as SanDisk down approximately 4.5% and Marvell Technology down nearly 3% [2] - Major tech companies had mixed results, with Facebook leading the decline at 1.5% [2] Tesla Developments - Tesla's stock opened strong, rising over 1%, driven by news regarding the company's humanoid robot team preparing for factory audits in China, potentially in anticipation of the Optimus Gen3 robot launch in Q1 next year [3] - Tesla's current stock price is reported at 444.206, with a market capitalization of approximately $1,477.3 billion [4] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks listed in the US saw widespread declines, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping by 2% at one point [5] - Notable declines included Qudian down over 7%, and other companies like Yika Technology and WeRide down over 5% [5] Commodity Market - International precious metal prices experienced volatility, with COMEX gold briefly falling below $4,200 before recovering to around $4,221, while spot gold was at $4,203 [6] - Silver prices showed a significant increase, with both spot and COMEX silver rising over 1.4% [6] Energy Market - Crude oil and natural gas futures continued to decline, with NYMEX natural gas dropping over 6% at one point and currently down about 4% [7] Labor Market Insights - The number of job openings in the US rose slightly to 7.67 million in October, the highest in five months, alleviating concerns about a worsening labor market [7] Federal Reserve Expectations - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's December meeting indicate a high probability (87% to 89%) of a 25 basis point rate cut, significantly higher than a month ago [8] - Predictions for the precious metals market suggest a strong performance for gold and silver by year-end, with gold potentially reaching a target price near $4,500 [8]

Market Overview - US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 slightly up, while the Nasdaq declined [1] - The Dow Jones index closed at 47,888.34, up by 149.02 points (0.31%), S&P 500 at 6,855.81, up by 9.30 points (0.14%), and Nasdaq at 23,512.79, down by 33.11 points (-0.14%) [2] Technology Sector - The technology sector experienced a downturn, with major tech stocks showing varied results. Notably, Facebook led the decline with a drop of 1.5% [2] - Specific stocks like SanDisk fell approximately 4.5%, and Marvell Technology dropped nearly 3% [3] Tesla Developments - Tesla's stock opened strong, rising over 1% amid news regarding its humanoid robot team in China, which is preparing for mass production of the Optimus Gen3 robot expected to launch in Q1 next year [3] - Tesla's current stock price is around 444.206, with a market capitalization of approximately 1,477.3 billion [4] Nvidia and AI Chip Sales - Nvidia's stock initially rose by 2% in pre-market trading but fell nearly 1% after opening. The company received approval to sell H200 AI chips to "approved customers" in China, with 25% of sales revenue going to the US government [4] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks generally declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping by 2%. Notable declines included Qudian down over 7%, and other companies like Li Auto, Baidu, and Bilibili falling around 4% [4][5] Commodity Market - International precious metal prices showed volatility, with COMEX gold briefly falling below $4,200 before recovering to around $4,221. Silver prices increased by over 1.4% [5] - Oil and natural gas futures continued to decline, with NYMEX natural gas dropping over 6% at one point [7] Labor Market Insights - The number of job openings in the US rose slightly to 7.67 million in October, the highest in five months, alleviating concerns about the labor market [7] - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are high, with probabilities ranging from 87% to 89% [7] Gold and Silver Predictions - Analysts predict a strong performance for gold and silver by the end of the year, with gold potentially reaching a target price close to $4,500 [7]

（原标题：斯巴达资本首席经济学家：劳动力市场走弱或促美联储鸽派降息） 美股在混杂数据中保持韧性 圣诞行情成为推力 南方财经：首先我们先回顾一下截至 12 月 5 日一周美国股市的表现。尽管劳动力市场数据以及核心 PCE 通胀等经济指标表现各异，但 12 月第一周美股整体依然相当强劲。你认为推动市场保持韧性的主要因素 是什么？ Peter Cardillo：我认为市场之所以保持韧性，部分原因在于美联储大概率会降息25个基点，而且他们 这一次的态度可能会比以往更偏鸽派。这主要是因为劳动力市场正在走弱，我们从一些私人宏观指标中 也看到明显的疲软迹象。因此，美联储的预期叠加12月历来是股市表现较强的月份，使得市场进入了典 型的"圣诞行情"。 南方财经：那么，你现在最关注哪些板块？ 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 周蕊 纽约报道 2025年美联储最后一次议息会议即将来临。根据CME FedWatch数据，市场目前押注FOMC在12月会议 上降息25个基点的概率约为87%至 89%，显著高于一个月前。 当地时间12月3日，美国自动数据处理公司(ADP)发布的数据显示，今年11月美国私营部门意外减少约 3.2万个就业岗位， ...