风险提示：投资有风险，投资需谨慎。 从四小时技术图形来看，价格整体仍运行在清晰的中期上升通道之中，通道结构保持完好，回调节奏受控。近期价格沿通道中轴震荡抬升，并成功突破此前 震荡区间上沿，显示多头结构依旧占据主导。63美元附近已由前期阻力转化为重要支撑区域，下方62.30至61.30区间构成短线关键防守带，只要价格维持在 该区域上方，整体趋势并未遭到破坏。上方来看，64.90附近构成阶段性阻力，若在成交配合下有效突破，油价有望沿通道上轨进一步上探69至70美元区 域，该区域同时也是图表所显示的中期目标阻力区。综合来看，WTI原油当前处于趋势偏多但高位敏感的阶段，地缘政治风险溢价为油价提供了重要支撑， 但基本面分化限制了上涨的持续性。本周走势将高度依赖中东局势是否继续升级以及美元走势变化，在趋势结构未被破坏之前，多头仍占据主动，但短线追 高需警惕回调风险，关注关键支撑区域对价格的再度验证。 来源：ATFX 本周国际原油市场在多重因素交织下再度成为资金关注焦点。随着中东地缘政治风险明显升温、美国原油库存出现阶段性下降以及美元走势趋弱，原油价格 延续震荡上行节奏，并一度升至四个月高位，价格重返63美元上方。从市场定 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PX、PTA、乙二醇、短纤、瓶片、纯苯、苯乙烯、LLDPE、PP、甲醇、烧 碱、PVC、尿素、纯碱、玻璃、天然橡胶、合成橡胶 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@g ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver have surged to historic highs, with spot gold breaking the $5000 per ounce mark, driven by factors such as weakened dollar credibility, strong central bank demand for gold, and geopolitical premiums [1][11]. Market Performance - As of the report, spot gold rose by 2.05% to $5090.288 per ounce, reaching a peak of $5111.17, while spot silver surged by 6.06% to $109.6 per ounce, surpassing the $110 mark [3][5]. - In the futures market, COMEX gold futures increased by 2.02% to $5080.4 per ounce, with a peak of $5107.9, and COMEX silver futures rose by 7.54% to $108.97 per ounce, hitting a high of $110.065 [6][7]. Influencing Factors - The current gold price rally, which began in early 2025 at around $3000 per ounce, reflects significant changes in the macroeconomic environment [9]. - Short-term factors include ongoing geopolitical risks, such as tensions over Greenland's sovereignty and escalating US-Iran relations, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold [9]. - Mid-term factors involve the interplay between the Federal Reserve's policy path and its independence, with expectations of weakened monetary policy independence supporting gold prices [9][10]. - Long-term drivers include the structural weakening of the dollar credit system, with global central banks increasing gold reserves and a steady de-dollarization process [10]. Future Outlook - The long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, influenced by factors such as weakened dollar credibility, strong central bank demand, and geopolitical premiums [11]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could potentially reach $6000 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of continued monetary easing [11]. - Investment strategies suggested include a diversified approach based on individual financial capacity and risk tolerance, with recommendations for different investment vehicles such as gold futures, ETFs, and physical gold [11].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver have reached historic highs, with spot gold surpassing $4960 per ounce and silver nearing the $100 mark, driven by a combination of geopolitical risks, monetary policy changes, and supply-demand dynamics [1][4][5]. Group 1: Price Movements and Drivers - Gold and silver prices have surged by 64% and 150% respectively, while copper prices have increased by over 41% in 2025, indicating a significant "growth storm" in the precious metals market [4]. - The recent price increases are attributed to global liquidity easing, geopolitical risk premiums, and persistent supply-demand gaps [5]. - The weakening of the US dollar and declining real interest rates have made commodities priced in dollars more attractive, contributing to the rise in precious metal prices [5]. Group 2: Industrial Metal Demand - Copper is increasingly recognized as essential for modern industries, particularly in AI and renewable energy sectors, with projected demand from AI data centers alone expected to add 47,500 tons by 2026 [7]. - China, as the largest copper consumer, accounted for 79% of its total copper consumption in 2023, highlighting the critical demand for copper in various industries [8]. - Silver's industrial demand is also on the rise, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels, with a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 110 million ounces by 2025 [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The Shanghai Action Plan aims to enhance the resource allocation and global pricing influence of China's non-ferrous metal commodities through 18 specific measures [3][11]. - The plan focuses on optimizing pricing mechanisms, improving market ecology, and enhancing support for the real economy, which could help stabilize prices and reduce costs for enterprises [12]. - To strengthen its position in the global market, China must consolidate its demand power and improve its ability to respond to international price fluctuations [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The natural gas sector is experiencing a significant surge, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and rising energy prices, particularly in Europe and the U.S. [1][3][7] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 22, the energy sector showed strong performance, with natural gas stocks like Bluestar Holdings and Victory Shares hitting their daily limits [1] - European natural gas prices reached €40 per megawatt hour for the first time since June, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [1] - U.S. natural gas futures surged over 30%, reaching $5 for the first time since December [1][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Increased geopolitical uncertainties have led investors to bet on rising oil prices, pushing the U.S. energy sector to historical highs [3][7] - The U.S. is expected to see nearly 10 million tons of LNG export facilities come online in Q1, boosting demand due to rising European gas prices [6][7] Group 3: Stock Performance - The A-share natural gas sector rose by 2.44% in early trading, reflecting the positive sentiment in the market [5] - Notable stock performances included Tris, which saw a rise of over 21%, and Zhongtai Shares, which increased by nearly 15% [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the cold weather in the U.S. and Europe will support natural gas prices, with a potential for short-term price increases [7] - The geopolitical risk premium is expected to maintain oil prices, with WTI crude oil at a critical threshold of $60 per barrel [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector in the U.S. stock market has reached historical highs due to rising geopolitical uncertainties, leading investors to bet on higher oil prices [1] Group 1: Energy Sector Performance - The S&P 500 Energy Index rose by 2.4% to 750.17 points, making it the best-performing sector within the S&P 500 [1] - Energy stocks have shown a strong performance recently, marking a reversal from a period of underperformance in 2025, where the index only increased by 5% compared to a 16% rise in the S&P 500 [5] - The sector has been recovering steadily since April of the previous year, following a significant drop of 20% after tariff announcements by Trump [5] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical pressures involving Venezuela, Ukraine, and Greenland are maintaining a moderate risk premium for oil prices, with WTI crude oil at a critical threshold of $60 per barrel [4] - The recent tensions surrounding Greenland have contributed to rising WTI crude oil prices, which have seen fluctuations in response to geopolitical developments [4][5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its oil demand forecast for 2026, providing additional support for oil prices [5] Group 3: Market Predictions and Risks - Wall Street institutions have become more optimistic about oil price prospects, with Citigroup raising its short-term benchmark forecast for Brent crude oil to $70 per barrel [5] - Despite the strong cash returns from upstream oil companies, they face complexities due to the rising geopolitical risk premium, which may not be sustainable [6] - The looming risk of oversupply in the industry remains a significant concern that could suppress oil prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Greenland crisis has seen a reversal, with President Trump announcing a framework agreement with NATO regarding Greenland's future, which has led to a slight increase in oil prices and a pullback in gold prices after reaching a historical high [1][10]. Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight increase, with WTI crude rising by less than 1% to below $61 per barrel, influenced by Trump's announcement about Greenland and a rise in stock markets and the dollar [2][11]. - Concerns over potential military action against Iran have added geopolitical risk premiums to oil prices, with Trump pressuring aides for decisive military options regarding Iran [2][11]. - The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth by 2026, slightly reducing the expected supply surplus, which has provided some support to the market [2][11]. Precious Metals - The easing of the Greenland crisis has cooled the record rally in gold prices, with silver prices also declining [6][15]. - Gold prices retreated after reaching a historical high of $4,888.42 per ounce, with current prices at $4,790.13 per ounce, reflecting a 0.6% increase [7][16]. - Silver prices fell by 3.3%, while platinum briefly surpassed $2,530 per ounce before reversing to a 0.9% decline [7][16]. Base Metals - Copper prices in London rose, supported by Goldman Sachs' prediction that the trend of copper flowing into the U.S. market will continue, which is a significant driver for copper price increases [8][17]. - As of the close in London, LME copper increased by 0.4% to $12,810 per ton, while other base metals showed mixed performance [9][19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - SC night session rose 0.91%, geopolitical risk premium in the oil market decreased, and more crude oil is expected to be exported from Venezuela in the coming weeks; the demand for crude oil from the "Joint Declaration" member countries is expected to remain at 43 million barrels per day in 2026 and increase to 43.6 million barrels per day in 2027 [3] - Methanol night session rose 1.14%, domestic CTO/MTO start - up decreased slightly, overall coastal methanol inventory declined slightly, and it is short - term bullish while paying attention to the situation in Iran [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For SC, the previous day's closing prices of the near - month and next - month contracts were 453.7 and 454.8 respectively, with price increases of 1.1 and 0.9 and increases of 0.24% and 0.20%; for WTI, the previous day's closing prices of the near - month and next - month contracts were 60.14 and 59.83 respectively, with price increases of 0.44 and 0.47 and increases of 0.74% and 0.79%; for Brent, the previous day's closing prices of the near - month and next - month contracts were 63.37 and 62.96 respectively, with price increases of 0.62 and 0.61 and increases of 0.99% and 0.98%. The trading volumes and open interests of each contract are also provided, and there are changes in open interests [2] - **Spread Information**: The current spreads of SC near - month - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, etc. are given, and there are also comparisons with the previous values [2] - **Exchange Rate Information**: The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates are provided [2] - **Comment**: The external market rose [2] Spot Market - **International Market**: The current prices and previous prices of OPEC basket crude oil, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, etc. are given, and the international crude oil spot and refined oil prices rose [2] - **Domestic Market**: The current prices and previous prices of domestic crude oil such as Daqing and Shengli, as well as the wholesale price indices of gasoline and diesel, FOB naphtha in Singapore, and the ex - factory price of aviation kerosene are provided [2] Commodity - Specific Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Trump's attitude towards Iran and Venezuela affected the market, and the OPEC report gave demand forecasts for the "Joint Declaration" member countries' crude oil in 2026 and 2027 [3] - **Methanol**: The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load decreased, the import volume decreased, the coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly, and the expected arrival volume of imported ships from January 15 to February 1 is 73.15 - 74 million tons [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil in China has been raised for the first time in 2023, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing by 85 yuan per ton, effective from January 20, 2023 [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - The price adjustment results in an increase of approximately 0.07 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0.07 yuan for 0 diesel, leading to an additional cost of about 3.5 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank in small private cars [1] - The adjustment is based on the average price of the first ten working days of January compared to the previous adjustment period [1] Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude oil prices rising from around 60 USD per barrel to a peak of 67 USD, before settling around 64 USD [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) indicates that geopolitical risks are a significant factor influencing international oil price volatility, while concerns over supply disruptions have eased [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from Zhuochuang Information predict that geopolitical risks will continue to create uncertainties affecting international crude oil prices, while macroeconomic pressures and industry oversupply will suppress upward momentum [2] - The oil market is expected to experience increased volatility, with a challenging environment for a clear directional trend in international oil prices [2]

Group 1 - The recent strengthening of the RMB is attributed to seasonal factors, with increased demand for currency exchange expected in December, leading to a typical appreciation of 0.5% and 0.8% against the USD in December and January respectively, with probabilities of 75% and 67% [1] - A survey by Bank of America indicates that global investor sentiment is at its highest since July 2021, with cash holdings dropping to a historical low of 3.2%, and 38% of respondents expecting economic growth, while concerns about recession are at a two-year low [2] - Lombard Odier strategists suggest that geopolitical risks, particularly related to US tariffs on European countries, may increase risk premiums, with gold expected to lead the market [3] Group 2 - Citigroup's Japan market head indicates that if the yen remains weak, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three times in 2026, potentially doubling the current rate, with a first increase expected if the USD/JPY rate exceeds 160 [3] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise its economic growth forecast and signal readiness for further rate hikes due to yen depreciation and inflation risks, although specific timing for rate increases remains uncertain [3] - A weak 20-year Japanese government bond auction has led to further selling of Japanese bonds, with concerns over government fiscal conditions and potential increases in government spending regardless of the election outcome [4]