Group 1 - The private equity fund industry in China is experiencing a surge in product registrations, with 1,775 private securities investment fund managers completing 5,461 product registrations in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.61% and a more than 100% increase compared to the second half of the previous year, indicating a significant recovery in market confidence and an enhanced willingness for capital allocation [1] - Among the five primary strategies, the stock strategy leads with 3,458 registered products, accounting for 63.32% of the total, reflecting strong enthusiasm for equity asset allocation, driven by factors such as the release of technology innovation policy dividends and robust performance in key sectors like artificial intelligence [1] - Multi-asset strategies and futures and derivatives strategies follow with 802 and 633 registered products, representing 14.69% and 11.59% respectively, highlighting an increased demand for diversified allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [1] Group 2 - Quantitative private equity institutions have shown remarkable performance during the current registration wave, with 27 out of 33 institutions having at least 20 registered products being quantitative, including 18 large-scale institutions with over 10 billion yuan in assets, showcasing their advantages in research capabilities, risk control systems, and brand effects [2] - A total of 2,448 registered quantitative strategy private products were recorded, with stock quantitative strategies dominating at 1,715 products, accounting for 70.06%, and the index enhancement strategy being the most favored with 1,061 products, representing 61.87% of stock quantitative strategies [2] - The small and micro-cap sector is expected to become a blue ocean for excess returns in quantitative strategies, as traditional broad-based index strategies face intensified competition and diminishing excess returns due to increased capital inflow [3]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors are diversifying their portfolios and reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over rising deficits and inflationary tariffs, which are diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. debt [2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Foreign Investment - The U.S. national debt has quadrupled to approximately $36 trillion in less than a decade, with public holdings around $29 trillion [3]. - In April, foreign capital saw a net outflow of $14.2 billion from U.S. Treasury bonds and the banking system, influenced by Trump's tariff policies [2][3]. - Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt at $1.13 trillion, followed by the UK at $807.7 billion and China at $757.2 billion [3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Fiscal Policy - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tax cuts and spending measures will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion, leading to a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [2]. - The Senate is expected to pass a bill that may save $500 billion by using alternative calculations that do not account for the extension of the 2017 tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Shift to European and Other Markets - European bonds, particularly German and French debt, are becoming more attractive to investors as U.S. deficits expand, with Germany maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio below 100% [4]. - The market for German bonds is expected to strengthen, creating better opportunities for equity markets and increasing the issuance of risk-free German and pan-European bonds [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends in Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings as part of a long-term structural trend towards diversification rather than a sudden withdrawal [5]. - Concerns over U.S. risk premiums are anticipated to lead to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as investors demand higher returns for holding U.S. debt [6].

Group 1 - The private equity securities fund market is experiencing strong growth, with a significant increase in product registrations, totaling 4,361 funds in the first five months of 2025, representing a 45.03% year-on-year increase [1] - In May alone, 870 products were registered, marking a remarkable 77.19% increase compared to the same month last year [1] - Key factors driving this surge include a recovering A-share market, improved regulatory frameworks, strong performance of quantitative strategies, and accelerated product innovation [1] Group 2 - Quantitative private equity funds have shown particularly strong performance, with 1,930 funds registered in the first five months, accounting for 44.26% of total registrations [2] - The recovery of the technology sector since September 2022 has significantly boosted market activity, leading to increased interest in quantitative funds due to their algorithm-driven decision-making and risk management capabilities [2] - The number of private equity fund managers reached 1,558, with a notable presence of smaller firms managing under 1 billion yuan, which registered 2,062 products [2] Group 3 - Large quantitative private equity institutions dominate the market, with 40 out of 66 institutions having registered at least 10 products being large firms, and 31 of these being quantitative [3] - The private equity fund industry is perceived to be entering a golden period of development, driven by improving market conditions and increasingly diverse investor demands [3]

5月29日，瑞银资产管理公司全球主权市场策略与咨询主管马西米利亚诺·卡斯泰利（Massimiliano Castelli）对第一财经表示，以前几乎没有机构会质疑美元信用，但今年开始这成为诸多客户会上被 提及的问题。目前主流机构还没有出现明显的"去美元化"趋势，美元作为全球储备货币的地位仍将 长期保持，但多元化配置、加大对美元资产持仓的对冲比例是切实在发生的事。 据记者了解，作为多元化配置趋势的体现，近年来除了黄金被多数机构增持，欧洲股票、日元、澳大 利亚元等资产近期亦受到追捧，国际投资者对于港股的兴趣同样在回升。 大规模去美元化未启 4月，美国实施"对等关税"政策，一度引发全球金融市场恐慌，美元指数跌破100大关，随后更跌入 98区间，创下阶段新低。日元、欧元今年以来对美元升值5%~10%。 2025.05. 30 本文字数：2725，阅读时长大约4.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 在关税政策等不确定性下，美国股债汇"三杀"频现，美元信用遭遇动摇。"去美元化"和"多元化配 置"成为近期多场国际投资峰会上，投资机构及其客户热议的关键词。 "4月以来，作为传统避险资产的美债，似乎成为了风险本身。一方面是今年有 ...

在关税政策等不确定性下，美国股债汇"三杀"频现，美元信用遭遇动摇。"去美元化"和"多元化配置"成 为近期多场国际投资峰会上，投资机构及其客户热议的关键词。 5月29日，瑞银资产管理公司全球主权市场策略与咨询主管马西米利亚诺·卡斯泰利（Massimiliano Castelli）对第一财经表示，以前几乎没有机构会质疑美元信用，但今年开始这成为诸多客户会上被提 及的问题。目前主流机构还没有出现明显的"去美元化"趋势，美元作为全球储备货币的地位仍将长期保 持，但多元化配置、加大对美元资产持仓的对冲比例是切实在发生的事。 据记者了解，作为多元化配置趋势的体现，近年来除了黄金被多数机构增持，欧洲股票、日元、澳大利 亚元等资产近期亦受到追捧，国际投资者对于港股的兴趣同样在回升。 大规模去美元化未启 4月，美国实施"对等关税"政策，一度引发全球金融市场恐慌，美元指数跌破100大关，随后更跌入98区 间，创下阶段新低。日元、欧元今年以来对美元升值5%~10%。 多元化配置、加大对美元资产持仓的对冲比例是切实在发生的事 在华尔街看来，美元此前被高估了10%~20%。这种高估缘于美国"例外主义"——过去十多年里，美国 优异的资产 ...

Group 1 - The rapid development of private MOM products is highlighted, with 29 products registered by May 20 this year, surpassing the total of 23 for the entire year of 2024 and setting a new record since 2019 [2] - MOM (Manager of Managers) is defined as a unique investment management model that involves delegating investment advice to multiple qualified third-party asset management institutions, allowing for diversified asset allocation [2] - Compared to FOF (Fund of Funds), MOM offers advantages in investment concentration limits, rebalancing flexibility, and the authority of the parent fund [3] Group 2 - The implementation of the "MOM Product Guidelines" by the CSRC at the end of 2019 has led to a more regulated environment for MOM products, allowing securities and futures asset management to engage in private MOM business [3] - Many of the newly registered MOM products are structured with cooperative institutions (such as securities and futures asset management) as trustees, and multiple private fund managers as investment advisors [3] - There is a growing demand for diversified allocation from bank wealth management and insurance asset management, especially as interest rates decline and volatility increases [3] Group 3 - Despite the advantages, there are risks associated with outsourced investments, which require strong research and investment capabilities [4] - The performance of MOM products heavily relies on the management capabilities of private funds as investment advisors and the selection and risk control measures of the funding parties [4] - Recent incidents, such as the collapse of a major FOF private institution, have led some bank wealth management firms to suspend similar channel businesses due to associated risks [4] Group 4 - The use of FOF and MOM tools is not merely a simple investment choice; it requires robust quantitative algorithms and detailed due diligence to select suitable products and managers [5] - Wealth management subsidiaries are adopting outsourcing as a long-term investment strategy, but there is still a need for improvement in the research and investment capabilities related to FOF and MOM [5]

尽管美元近期趋稳并小幅回升，但经济学家对这一全球储备货币的前景仍持悲观态度。周五截至发稿， 美元指数维持在100上方，但年内仍累计下跌7%。 阿波罗（Apollo）首席经济学家托尔斯滕・斯洛科（Torsten Slok）在报告中指出，美元相对欧元的利差本 应推动欧元重新接近平价水平。然而，欧元兑美元目前徘徊在1.12左右。 斯洛科计算发现，美元汇率较利差暗示的水平低10%。显然，其他力量正在发挥作用。 此外，DeepSeek等企业突然崛起挑战了美国在人工智能领域的主导地位，加之"美国例外论已达顶峰"的 观点，以及高估值引发的美国资产抛售潮，均凸显美元弱势。这也引发经济学家激烈辩论：当前局面是 暂时性调整，还是范式转变？ 特纳指出，市场还反复猜测，与美国主要出口国的贸易协定可能纳入某种货币协议，这将使近期升值的 新台币、韩元等货币的强势地位更加稳固。 随着特朗普指控多国央行人为贬值货币以获取不公平贸易优势，日本、新加坡等被怀疑存在相关行为的 国家，可能成为美国的"攻击目标"。 自贸易战开始以来，欧元兑美元受到利差以外的因素驱动 荷兰国际集团（ING）全球市场主管克里斯・特纳（Chris Turner）的最新研究 ...

Core Insights - The Indian stock market experienced a significant rise, with the Sensex index increasing by 1.48%, reaching a new high since October of the previous year, potentially influenced by tariff reductions [1] - The Emerging Asia ETF (520580) saw a strong performance, opening higher and recording a 1.38% increase, with nearly 1.7 billion yuan traded within the first 10 minutes [1] - Southeast Asian countries, including India, Indonesia, and Thailand, have implemented interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, contributing to a bullish trend in their stock markets [3][4] Market Performance - The Indian stock market has been on an upward trajectory, with the Sensex index continuously hitting new highs this year [3] - The Emerging Asia ETF recorded a net inflow of 41.17 million yuan, with a record net purchase of 7.89 million yuan since its inclusion in margin trading [2] Monetary Policy - Central banks in Southeast Asia, including India, have adopted rate cuts this year to support economic growth, with expectations for further cuts in the coming months [4] - Barclays reported that the Indian central bank might lower rates in June, earlier than previously anticipated in August, following two rate cuts this year [4] ETF Characteristics - The Emerging Asia ETF (520580) has a high correlation with the Indian market, with approximately 50% of its investments allocated to India [5] - The correlation coefficient between the Emerging Asia Select 50 Index and the Indian Sensex 30 Index is 0.7, indicating a strong relationship [6] Historical Performance - Since its inception on March 28, 2018, the Emerging Asia Select 50 Total Return Index has achieved a return of 42.18%, outperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which saw a decline of 0.98% during the same period [6] - India's stock market has delivered an annualized return of 14% over the past 20 years, with potential catalysts for continued growth identified [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts by the central bank are expected to lead to a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 0.1 percentage points, prompting commercial banks to lower deposit rates accordingly [1] Group 1: Deposit Strategies - Investors are advised to lock in high-yield deposits by choosing long-term deposits, such as 3-5 year large certificates of deposit (CDs) or fixed-term savings products, to secure current interest rates [2] - Some small banks are offering deposit products with interest rates exceeding 2%, such as Guangdong Huaxing Bank's 5-year CD at 2.35% and Guangzhou Bank's 3-year deposit at 2.15% [2] - Investors should also consider foreign currency deposits, with some banks offering annualized rates above 3.7% for USD deposits, but must be cautious of exchange rate fluctuations and annual purchase limits [2][4] Group 2: Structured Deposits - For investors with a certain risk tolerance, structured deposit products can be considered, with guaranteed returns ranging from 0% to 2.7% and potential maximum returns of 3.5% to 6% for guaranteed products, while non-guaranteed products can yield up to 8% [3] - It is important to monitor the performance of the underlying assets linked to structured deposits, as poor performance may lead to lower-than-expected returns [3] Group 3: Investment Portfolio Strategies - Analysts recommend diversifying investment portfolios, suggesting that risk-averse investors consider government bonds, which may benefit from the current monetary easing and global trade tensions [5][7] - For investors with higher risk tolerance, a balanced stock-bond portfolio strategy is advised to capture stable returns from fixed-income assets while participating in equity markets to benefit from policy support [7] - Focus areas for equity investments include emerging technologies such as AI, robotics, and biomedicine, as well as sectors related to consumer spending [7]

Core Insights - Investors are actively seeking alternatives to gold as a safe-haven asset due to increasing volatility and rising costs associated with gold investments [2][4] Group 1: Alternatives to Gold - Digital currencies, rare metals, and alternative investments are gaining traction among mainstream investors, offering both safe-haven characteristics and liquidity advantages [4] - Bitcoin is being recognized as "digital gold," with its scarcity increasing post the 2024 halving event, and institutional acceptance growing, as evidenced by Bitcoin ETF assets surpassing $50 billion [5] - Stablecoins like USDT and USDC provide a compromise by maintaining a 1:1 peg to the dollar, offering the convenience of blockchain while mitigating price volatility risks [7] Group 2: Rare Metals - Silver, platinum, and palladium are also considered undervalued safe-haven options, with silver demand projected to rise by 23% in the photovoltaic industry by 2025, while supply only increases by 5% [8] - Platinum is expected to see exponential demand growth due to its role in hydrogen energy, with countries like Japan and South Korea incorporating it into national strategic reserves [8] - Rare earth elements are becoming increasingly strategic, with China controlling over 80% of global supply, while the U.S. and EU are working to establish alternative supply chains [8] Group 3: Alternative Safe-Haven Assets - Agricultural commodities are emerging as a new hedge against inflation, with a 320% year-on-year increase in inflows into agricultural ETFs in Q1 2025 [9] - Infrastructure REITs provide protection through physical assets, with annual returns projected between 6-9% due to stable cash flows linked to inflation indices [11] - The art and collectibles market is becoming more institutionalized, with blockchain technology lowering entry barriers for high-end collectibles, evidenced by a 450% increase in trading volume [11] Group 4: Investment Strategy for 2025 - A diversified investment strategy is recommended, allocating 40% to traditional safe-haven assets (gold, silver), 30% to innovative safe-haven assets (Bitcoin, stablecoins), and 30% to growth-oriented safe-haven assets (rare earths, agricultural commodities) [12] - Implementing a dynamic adjustment mechanism with quarterly rebalancing and options strategies to hedge tail risks is crucial [12] - Geographic diversification is important, as different regions have varying preferences for safe-haven assets, which can mitigate the impact of market volatility [12]