Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Congress has recognized the value of central bank independence and is taking steps to protect it from political manipulation [1] Group 1 - The acknowledgment of the importance of central bank independence by Congress indicates a shift towards safeguarding monetary policy from political influences [1] - The statement reflects a broader understanding of the need for a stable economic environment, which is essential for long-term investment and growth [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, reflecting a complex economic landscape with conflicting signals from employment and inflation data [2][4] - The U.S. economy is showing a dual picture, with non-farm payrolls growing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly two years [4] - Inflation remains a concern, with the CPI rising 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.1%, both above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [4] Group 2: Political Influence and Economic Pressure - The rapid confirmation of Stephen Milan as a Fed governor has introduced political dynamics into monetary policy, as he is aligned with the Trump administration's pro-growth agenda [1][6] - The current U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, and a 25 basis point rate cut could save nearly $100 billion in interest payments annually, highlighting fiscal pressures as a significant factor in policy decisions [5][9] - The Congressional Budget Office projects a fiscal deficit of $1.9 trillion for FY2025, which is 6.2% of GDP, further intensifying the pressure for rate cuts as a means to alleviate fiscal burdens [9] Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Opportunities - The market has already begun to price in rate cuts, with gold prices reaching a historical high of $3,730 per ounce, reflecting a 48.94% increase since the last rate cut cycle began [10] - Historical data suggests that during initial rate cut cycles, technology growth stocks tend to outperform value stocks, indicating potential short-term gains for the tech sector if the Fed proceeds with cuts [10] - Commodity markets are showing divergent trends, with precious metals like gold benefiting from the anticipated cuts, while industrial metals' performance will depend on the strength of global economic recovery [12]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%, reflecting concerns over a weakening labor market and persistent inflation issues [1][2] - The decision to cut rates is primarily based on significant deterioration in labor market indicators, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, well below market expectations, and a downward revision of June's employment data showing a decrease of 13,000 [2] - The current economic situation exhibits characteristics of stagflation, with both slowing employment and sticky inflation, as evidenced by an August inflation rate of 2.9%, the highest level since January [2] Group 2 - The pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve has been evident, with calls for more aggressive rate cuts to stimulate economic growth and reduce the trade deficit [3] - The recent meeting saw a new member advocate for a 50 basis point cut, interpreted as a direct reflection of White House influence on monetary policy decisions [3] - The potential for future appointments to the Federal Reserve Board could tilt monetary policy further towards aggressive easing, raising concerns about the balance between economic needs and government influence [3] Group 3 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, as government interventions could lead to adverse economic consequences, including uncontrolled inflation and financial volatility [4] - Historical evidence suggests that government-led monetary policy often results in long-term economic costs, emphasizing the importance of maintaining central bank independence for market credibility and public trust [4] - The Federal Reserve must enhance its policy transparency and communication effectiveness to navigate the current complex economic landscape and maintain public confidence [4] Group 4 - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is a challenging decision made amidst rising economic risks and increasing government pressure, with future policy directions dependent on evolving employment and inflation data [5] - The emphasis on a "data-dependent" approach to decision-making highlights the Fed's strategy to manage uncertainty in the economic environment [5] - The ongoing challenges to the Fed's independence could have significant implications for the stability of the U.S. economy and serve as a test case for central banking systems globally [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been labeled as hawkish by the market, but the real impact comes from the subtle changes in the voting dynamics [2] - Only the new member Stephen Miran opposed the decision, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while previously dissenting hawkish members Waller and Bowman surprisingly voted in favor [2] - This shift in voting not only disrupts market expectations but also influences the betting odds for the next Fed chair, with Waller's odds dropping significantly and Miran's rising to the top [2] Group 2 - The support from Waller and Bowman alleviates fears that the Federal Reserve will be influenced by the White House, indicating that monetary policy decisions are guided by data rather than political pressures [3] - Their votes serve as a strong affirmation of the Fed's independence, demonstrating that there are decision-makers willing to bear reputational costs for making the right choices [3] - The 25 basis point cut is viewed as a technical adjustment, while the two supportive votes redefine the rules of the game, emphasizing that the Fed's authority is based on professional judgment rather than political fluctuations [3]

美国联邦上诉法院本周一晚间做出裁决，驳回了特朗普试图紧急罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克的请求。这已经是特朗普第二次在针对库克的法律行动中失 败。这场较量不仅关乎个人去留，更引发了关于央行独立性的深刻讨论。 特朗普再次在法庭上栽了跟头！ 华盛顿的权力斗争正在升级。就在法院驳回特朗普请求的同一天，他提名的另一位亲信成功通过了参议院确认，进入美联储理事会。这一进一退之 间，一场关于美国央行控制权的暗战已经悄然打响。 特朗普团队这次可谓来势汹汹。他们在最后一刻向上诉法院提出紧急动议，试图阻止库克参加周二的美联储利率决议会议，剥夺她的投票权。要知 道，这次会议将决定数百万美国人的借贷成本，意义重大。 但哥伦比亚特区巡回上诉法院的法官们果断拒绝了这一请求。他们不仅维持了下级法院的临时禁令，更明确指出：贸然允许总统罢免美联储理事，可 能引发金融市场动荡，甚至让美联储陷入前所未有的政治漩涡。法官们特别强调，如果允许总统随意解职，可能导致库克在诉讼期间反复被停职又复 职，这种不确定性对金融稳定构成严重威胁。 特朗普团队指控库克在加入美联储前存在房贷欺诈行为。但蹊跷的是，司法部门至今未对库克提起任何刑事诉讼。《纽约时报》获取的贷款文件 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is interpreted as slightly "hawkish," despite the absence of expected dissenting votes from two hawkish members [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, which led to significant market volatility before being classified as slightly "hawkish" [1]. - Only new member Stephen Miran voted against the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while Waller and Bowman, previously seen as dissenters, supported the cut [1]. Group 2: Implications of Votes - Waller and Bowman’s votes are seen as a defense of the Federal Reserve's independence, indicating a potential shift away from political influence in monetary policy [2][4]. - Their support for the rate cut, despite political pressures, suggests that the rationale for aggressive cuts is weaker than the government might want the public to believe [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC decision, Waller's odds of becoming the next Fed Chair significantly decreased, while Miran's odds surged to the top position due to his dissenting vote [3]. - The actions of Waller and Bowman are interpreted as a positive signal, reducing concerns about excessive political interference in future monetary policy [4].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since the end of 2024 [1][4] - The decision reflects a cautious approach amid a weakening job market and political pressures, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to maintaining its independence [5][11] Background of Rate Cut - The rate cut comes in the context of a softening job market, with rising unemployment and slowing hiring being significant concerns for the Fed [5] - In contrast to the previous year's aggressive 50 basis point cut, this adjustment is seen as a small step aimed at risk management rather than a decisive shift in policy [5][17] Economic Projections and Dot Plot - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates that two more 25 basis point cuts are expected by the end of the year, potentially lowering rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by the end of 2025 [7] - The dot plot suggests a gradual decline in long-term interest rate expectations, with projections for 2026 and 2027 being slightly lower than previous estimates, yet still above the neutral rate and inflation target [7][8] Internal Disagreements - There is a notable division among Fed members, with some advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points, while the majority favored a more gradual approach [8][10] - Powell acknowledged these differing opinions but emphasized the importance of reaching a consensus through diverse viewpoints [8] Powell's Press Conference Highlights - Powell stated that the 25 basis point cut was a suitable choice for risk management, rejecting the idea of a larger cut due to lack of broad support [10] - He clarified that the rate cut was primarily in response to job market weaknesses rather than a signal that inflation concerns have been resolved [10][15] - Powell defended the Fed's independence in the face of political pressure, asserting that decisions are based on data rather than political influence [11][12] Overall Implications - The rate cut is seen as a balancing act between addressing employment pressures and maintaining the Fed's independence amid political scrutiny [15][17] - The cautious approach indicates that while the Fed is willing to ease monetary policy, it remains vigilant about inflation risks and external pressures [15][17]

C o o k 获 准 留 任 但 投 票 立 场 成 谜 来源 | 华尔街大事件 在美联储本周关键利率决议前夕，两项人事变动为高度紧张的市场增添了戏剧性。 据央视报道，当地时间9月15日，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦上诉法院驳回了美国司法部的紧急申请，维持了下级法院暂时阻止特朗普撤换Lisa Cook的禁令。 这意味着Cook将能够参加本周的美联储会议。 几乎在同一时间，据央视新闻，参议院以48票对47票的微弱优势，通过了对Stephen Miran出任美联储理事会成员的提名。在共和党的快速推动 下，Miran预计将于周二上午履新，可能也正好赶上本周的美联储会议。 白宫支持的候选人成功入主美联储理事会，而一位面临总统解雇压力的现任理事则通过法庭裁决保住了投票权，这使得一场关于央行独立性的 政治角力，直接延伸到了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的决策桌上，让本已备受关注的利率决议更添变数。 虽然市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点，但两位立场截然不同的投票委员的加入，让最终结果变得难以预测。 甚至有分析认为，FOMC可能出现罕见的"四方混战"局面，对市场预期构成重大挑战。 Cook的留任为此次会议增添了最大的不确定性。上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, including the court ruling allowing Lisa Cook to remain and the Senate's approval of Stephen Miran, have added uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, highlighting the political tensions surrounding the Fed's independence [1][2][3]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - The U.S. Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's decision, allowing Lisa Cook to participate in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, despite facing pressure from President Trump [1]. - Stephen Miran was confirmed by the Senate with a narrow vote of 48 to 47, and is expected to take office in time for the Fed meeting [1][4]. Group 2: Impact on Interest Rate Decisions - Market expectations prior to these changes were for a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut; however, the addition of Cook and Miran has led to discussions of a potential "four-way split" in voting [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that Miran's appointment will likely strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC, potentially leading to a vote for a 50 basis point cut [4][7]. Group 3: Political Tensions and Independence - The situation reflects increasing tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve, with Cook previously identified as one of the most dovish members, potentially complicating the Fed's decision-making process [3][4]. - There are concerns that Cook may unexpectedly vote for a rate hike to assert her independence, which could further complicate the Fed's stance and raise questions about its autonomy [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve have added uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, with the potential for a divided voting outcome among committee members [1][3][4]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - Lisa Cook has been allowed to remain on the Federal Reserve Board, which adds significant uncertainty to the upcoming meeting [3][6]. - Stephen Miran's nomination was swiftly approved by the Senate, and he is expected to strengthen the dovish camp within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3][11]. - The contrasting situations of Cook and Miran highlight the political tensions affecting the Federal Reserve's independence [10][12]. Group 2: Voting Dynamics - The market generally anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, but the inclusion of Cook and Miran could lead to a rare "four-way split" in voting [4][13]. - Possible voting factions include a dovish camp supporting a 50 basis point cut, a moderate camp favoring a 25 basis point cut, a group advocating for no change, and the potential for Cook to unexpectedly support a rate hike [14][15]. - If an unprecedented outcome occurs, it could lead to significant confusion in policy signals from the FOMC and unpredictable market reactions [15].