中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度（总第11 0次）例会于9月 23日召开。会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加强货币政策调 控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场 运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，抓好各项货币政策措施执行， 充分释放政策效应。 会议认为，今年以来宏观调控力度加大，货币政策适度宽松，持续发力、适时加力，强化逆周期调节，综合运用多种货币政策工具，服务实体经济高质量 发展，为经济回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。贷款市场报价利率改革效能持续释放，存款利率市场化调整机制作用有效发挥，货币政策传导效率增 强，社会融资成本处于历史较低水平。外汇市场供求基本平衡，经常账户顺差稳定，外汇储备充足，人民币汇率双向浮动，在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳 定。金融市场总体运行平稳。 会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，认为当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能减弱，贸易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和 货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济运行稳中有进，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价低位运行等困难和挑 战。要落实落细适度宽松的货币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and stabilize growth amid complex domestic and international economic conditions [1][2]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The PBOC plans to enhance monetary policy regulation, focusing on forward-looking, targeted, and effective measures to align monetary supply with economic growth and price expectations [2]. - Maintaining ample liquidity and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply is crucial for matching social financing scale with economic growth [2]. - The central bank aims to strengthen the guidance of policy interest rates and improve the market-based interest rate formation mechanism [2]. Financial Stability and Support - Large banks are encouraged to play a leading role in providing financial services to the real economy, while small and medium-sized banks should focus on their core responsibilities [3]. - The PBOC will implement structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [3]. - Efforts will be made to enhance financial services for the private economy and improve financing channels for small and micro enterprises [3]. Economic Development Goals - The meeting underscores the importance of high-quality development and the need to implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress and the Central Economic Work Conference [4]. - The focus will be on strengthening domestic circulation, coordinating supply and demand, and maintaining policy continuity and stability [4]. - The PBOC aims to expand domestic demand, stabilize expectations, and invigorate the economy to sustain the positive momentum of economic recovery [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [1][2][4] Monetary Policy Strategy - The meeting suggests enhancing monetary policy regulation with a focus on forward-looking, targeted, and effective measures, ensuring that monetary supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [2] - It is crucial to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, matching social financing scale and money supply growth with economic targets [2] - The central bank aims to strengthen policy interest rate guidance and improve the market-based interest rate formation transmission mechanism [2] Financial Stability and Support - Large banks are encouraged to play a leading role in providing financial services to the real economy, while small and medium-sized banks should focus on their core responsibilities and enhance capital strength [3] - The meeting highlights the importance of implementing structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [3] - There is a focus on improving financial services for the private economy and addressing financing bottlenecks for small and micro enterprises [3] Economic Development Goals - The meeting underscores the primary task of high-quality development and the need to advance Chinese-style modernization while fully implementing the new development concept [4] - It emphasizes the importance of strengthening domestic circulation and coordinating total supply and demand to enhance macro policy coordination [4]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to enhancing support for technological innovation and boosting consumption through a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to create a favorable financial environment for high-quality economic development [1][2] Monetary Policy Strategy - The PBOC plans to strengthen monetary policy regulation, ensuring liquidity remains ample and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2] - The central bank emphasizes the importance of improving the market-based interest rate formation mechanism and enhancing the execution and supervision of interest rate policies to lower overall financing costs [2] Financial Sector Support - Large banks are encouraged to play a leading role in providing financial services to the real economy, while small and medium-sized banks should focus on their core responsibilities and enhance capital strength [3] - The PBOC aims to effectively implement various structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [3] Economic Development Goals - The meeting highlighted the need to adhere to the principles of high-quality development and to promote a new development pattern, with a focus on strengthening domestic circulation and balancing supply and demand [4] - The PBOC is tasked with ensuring the stability of the real estate market and improving the financial infrastructure related to real estate development [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The PBOC has increased macroeconomic regulation efforts this year, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments and support the real economy [1]. - The loan market quotation rate reform is showing continued effectiveness, with social financing costs at historically low levels [1]. - The external economic environment is becoming more complex, with weakening global economic growth and increasing trade barriers, while domestic economic performance shows steady improvement despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand [1][2]. Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The meeting suggests strengthening monetary policy regulation, enhancing its foresight, targeting, and effectiveness, and ensuring that monetary policy measures align with economic growth and price level expectations [2]. - There is a focus on maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, matching social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth targets [2]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations, ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable level [2][3]. Group 3: Support for Key Sectors - The meeting highlights the importance of supporting small and micro enterprises, promoting financial services for the private economy, and addressing financing bottlenecks for these businesses [3]. - There is a commitment to stabilizing the real estate market by improving financial systems and revitalizing existing properties and land [3]. - The PBOC emphasizes the need for coordinated macroeconomic policies to enhance domestic circulation and stimulate demand, ensuring a stable economic recovery [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of local government bonds as a macroeconomic adjustment tool, suggesting an acceleration in the use of local debt expenditures and the issuance of replacement quotas for the following year to stimulate domestic demand [1][2]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Characteristics and Trends - In 2025, local government bond issuance is expected to reach a record high, with a significant increase in the new debt limit and a notable advancement in the replacement schedule [2]. - The issuance of local government bonds is aimed at addressing fiscal deficits and promoting investment, particularly in real estate and government investment funds [2][3]. - The negative list management model has expanded the scope of special bonds, enhancing support for land reserves and the acquisition of idle land and existing housing for affordable housing [2]. Group 2: Structural Optimization and Expansion of Local Debt - Recommendations include optimizing the relationship between central and local governments to ensure sustainable fiscal and debt management [3]. - There is a call for a balanced approach between new debt and refinancing debt, ensuring that project construction and debt rollover needs are met [3]. - The establishment of a long-term regulatory system is necessary to balance quality and quantity throughout the debt cycle, with a focus on asset management and risk monitoring [3]. Group 3: Policy Development and Financial Tools - The report advocates for the accelerated use of special bonds and the early issuance of replacement quotas, with a focus on addressing public service shortfalls and boosting consumption [4]. - It suggests enhancing the coordination between special bonds, policy financial tools, and bank credit to effectively stimulate domestic demand and support economic development goals [4]. Group 4: Project Management and Funding Mechanisms - There is a proposal to optimize and broaden the scope of investment areas, including the establishment of a "positive encouragement list" for emerging sectors [5]. - The report emphasizes the need for a more rigorous project discovery and evaluation mechanism to increase the quality of project reserves [5]. - It also highlights the importance of improving funding management and establishing effective channels for information disclosure and risk monitoring [5].

Core Insights - The "924" policy has marked a significant shift in China's economic policy from "prudent" to "moderately loose" [1][6] - The implementation of the "924" policy has not only provided a series of incremental policies for short-term growth stabilization but also reflects a change in economic policy thinking [2][7] - New incremental policies are expected to be more targeted, addressing unresolved issues from previous policies [4][10] Policy Overview - The "924" policy, initiated on September 24, 2024, included measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate reductions, debt management, and innovative monetary policy tools aimed at stabilizing growth, promoting consumption, and supporting the real estate and stock markets [2][5] - The macroeconomic policy direction has shifted, with a focus on repairing balance sheets across various sectors and alleviating the pains of economic transition [3][8] Economic Impact - Following the "924" policy, the Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1000 points, indicating positive market sentiment and recovery in consumption and investment [2][4] - By the end of 2024, GDP growth rebounded to 5.4% in the fourth quarter, supported by increased retail sales and fixed asset investment [6][7] Future Considerations - As of late 2025, economic indicators show signs of slowing growth, prompting speculation about the introduction of a new round of "924" policies [10][11] - Experts suggest that future policies should focus on targeted interventions to address ongoing challenges in the real estate market and enhance coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [4][12] - Recommendations for future policies include expanding service consumption subsidies, reinitiating policy financial tools for local projects, and fully lifting purchase restrictions in first-tier cities [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a new round of "924" policies in response to slowing consumption and investment growth, as well as increased volatility in real estate prices in certain cities as of the second half of 2025 [1][7]. Group 1: Review of "924" Policy - The "924" policy, introduced on September 24, 2024, marked a significant shift in China's economic policy from "prudent" to "moderately loose" [3][9]. - The policy included a series of measures such as interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio reductions, and innovative monetary policy tools aimed at stabilizing growth, promoting consumption, and restoring property and stock market stability [5][12]. - The implementation of the "924" policy led to a notable increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose over 1,000 points within a year [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Challenges - By the second half of 2025, consumption and investment growth began to slow, with some cities experiencing increased fluctuations in real estate prices, prompting questions about the need for new policies [7][17]. - Economic indicators showed a decline in retail sales growth to 3.4% year-on-year in August 2025, and fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% for the first eight months of the year, with real estate investment down by 12.9% [16][17]. - The challenges faced include the diminishing marginal effects of previous policies and the need for more targeted measures to address unresolved issues from earlier interventions [17][18]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - Experts suggest that new incremental policies will likely be introduced, with a focus on addressing specific economic challenges rather than replicating the "924" policy [18][19]. - Recommendations for future policies include expanding subsidies for service consumption, directly providing cash or digital currency to low-income groups, and reinitiating policy financial tools to support local project capital [18][19]. - There is a call for a more coordinated approach between monetary and fiscal policies to enhance the effectiveness of future interventions and improve the overall economic environment [19].

Core Insights - The "China Local Government Bond Blue Book (2025)" was released, providing a comprehensive review of the local bond market in 2024 and analyzing current development characteristics and challenges [1][2] - The blue book highlights three main characteristics of local government bonds in 2025: significant increase in new issuance limits, accelerated replacement rhythm, and broader investment areas [1] Group 1 - The local bond market is expected to continue expanding steadily, optimizing its structure, and enhancing efficiency while supporting high-quality development [2] - The fiscal and tax system reform will deepen, aiming to clarify the relationship between central and local governments and promote changes in local incentive systems and behavior [2] - Local government bonds are positioned as a key tool for macroeconomic regulation amidst external pressures, particularly in the context of tariff disputes [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point interest rate cut has triggered significant market reactions, causing volatility in both U.S. and international markets, including oil and soybean prices [1][4] - The widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and China is attracting international capital, but concerns about imported inflation and the capacity of the Chinese economy to absorb this influx persist [4][5] - Despite the allure of China's interest rates, foreign investors remain cautious due to risks in the real estate market and local government debt, which could deter substantial investments [5][7] Group 2 - China's manufacturing sector shows resilience, with exports of electromechanical products steadily increasing, indicating strong growth potential that appeals to foreign investors [7] - The Chinese government is implementing policies to address real estate issues and local debt, which could enhance investor confidence and stabilize the market [7][10] - Strategic reserves and price control mechanisms are in place to mitigate the impact of rising commodity prices on consumers, ensuring that inflation remains manageable [8][10] Group 3 - The challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in accessing financing are significant, with a preference from banks to lend to larger, more established companies [11][12] - The People's Bank of China is focusing on targeted monetary policy measures, such as lowering the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate, to provide low-cost funds to SMEs and the manufacturing sector [12] - Overall, China's economic strategy is proactive, leveraging its strong industrial base and market size to navigate global economic challenges effectively [14]