Core Viewpoint - The demand for safe-haven assets is expected to support gold prices, which have already seen a significant increase in the first half of 2025, marking the largest semi-annual gain since the second half of 2007 [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, the London spot gold price rose by 25.7%, the highest semi-annual increase since the second half of 2007 [1] - The international gold price is anticipated to remain in a fluctuating upward channel in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Demand Factors - Continued market demand for safe-haven assets is expected to provide long-term support for gold prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - Global central banks show a strong willingness to allocate gold, driven by increasing credit risks associated with the US dollar [1] Group 3: Strategic Asset Allocation - Central banks are likely to enhance their gold reserves due to strategic security and asset allocation needs [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict increases market risk - aversion demand, but the sharp strengthening of the US dollar index exerts pressure. Weak US retail sales and industrial output data in May strengthen the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The global central banks' gold - buying trend remains unchanged, supporting the gold price center in the long - term. With a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, short - term focus is on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and signals of monetary policy shift [3]. - **Copper**: The most important macro event in the short - term is the Fed's interest - rate decision. Although the interest rate is mostly priced in, the statement after the decision may affect copper prices. High prices above 78,000 yuan per ton may lead to a negative feedback and a situation of high prices but low trading volume. The position of Shanghai copper has declined from a high of 580,000 lots to below 550,000 lots. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Zinc**: The supply side shows a slow - paced relaxation, as indicated by the rising TC and the month - on - month increase in zinc ingot production. However, the transfer from ore to ingot takes time, and the relaxation at the ore end has not fully translated to the ingot end. The demand side remains stable but weak in the traditional off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment, as well as inventory data [32]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry's upper limit with little change. The demand from end - user factories is significantly declining in the off - season, but the processing sector's start - up rate has only slightly decreased, with some inventory accumulation. The low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, with prices likely to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term [46]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea has not resumed production, and there is a possibility of short - term (1 - 3 months) production suspension. Although the overall impact on annual alumina supply is limited, there may be monthly shortages, pushing up ore prices. Alumina has shifted to inventory accumulation, and prices are under pressure [47]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material market for scrap aluminum is tight, leading to high costs. The supply capacity is relatively excessive, and the demand growth may slow down in the second half of the year. The futures contract shows a BACK structure [48]. - **Nickel**: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore remains firm, squeezing the profits of downstream products. The price of nickel iron has been further reduced, and the demand from some steel mills has weakened, leading to inventory accumulation. The stainless - steel market is sluggish, and the price of nickel sulfate has also decreased. The spread between nickel sulfate and pure nickel is widening [74]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have remained stable recently and are expected to continue so in the next week under the assumption of no major changes in the macro and fundamental aspects. Due to falling inventory, slower - than - expected recovery of Burmese tin mines, and decent short - term demand, tin prices may be slightly bullish with limited upside space [90]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market for the lithium - battery industry is weak. The supply side sees stable lithium ore prices but a downward shift in the lithium carbonate market price. The demand side shows no significant improvement, and the terminal market has mixed performance [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The market supply of the silicon industry chain is generally loose, and the furnace - opening expectations are gradually being realized. The supply side is slightly relaxed, and the demand side is stable. The polysilicon market has an increased production plan in July, while the downstream silicon wafer and battery - cell markets have reduced production and mainly make rigid purchases [118]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price and gold - silver ratio are presented [4]. - **Correlation Analysis**: Relationships between gold and the US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real interest rates are shown [9][10]. - **Inventory and Fund Position**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories, as well as long - term gold and silver fund positions are provided [13][14]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper 3M are given [16]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different copper brands in various regions are presented [21]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper scrap - refined copper price difference are provided [25][28]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts, and LME copper inventory data are shown [29][30]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [33]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different zinc products in various regions are presented [38]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc warehouse receipts and inventory data are shown [42]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and aluminum - related futures contracts are provided [50]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of aluminum in different regions, as well as LME aluminum spot and spreads are presented [57][62]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum warehouse receipts and inventory data, as well as alumina warehouse receipt data are shown [68]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as stainless - steel futures, are provided [75]. - **Spot and Inventory Data**: Nickel spot prices, warehouse receipt inventories, and nickel ore prices and inventories are presented [80][82]. - **Profit Data**: Profit margins of nickel - related products such as MHP - produced electrolytic nickel, sulfuric - nickel production, and stainless - steel production are shown [84][87]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of tin products are presented [97]. - **Inventory Data**: Warehouse receipt inventories of tin and LME tin inventory are shown [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are provided [105]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide are presented [108]. - **Inventory Data**: Exchange inventories, including Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and different types of lithium carbonate inventories, are shown [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and grades are provided [119]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures contracts are provided [123]. - **Product Price Data**: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and silicone products are presented [131][134]. - **Output and Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon production in Xinjiang and Yunnan, as well as inventories of polysilicon and industrial silicon are shown [137][145][149].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a decrease in market risk aversion, there remains support for gold bulls, raising questions about short-term selling opportunities [1] Group 1 - The demand for safe-haven assets has diminished, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - Gold prices may still find support due to underlying bullish factors, suggesting potential resilience in the market [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring short-term trading strategies, particularly regarding potential short positions in gold [1]

美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，就业人数增加13.9万人，虽然创2月以来新低，但略高于市场预期的 12.6万人。然而，前两个月的就业数据被合计下调9.5万人，这一修正幅度足以抵消表面上的积极表现。 5月失业率 4.2%，持平预期及前值 4.2%。 在经济放缓的背景下，工资数据反而展现出意外的韧性。5月平均时薪环比增长0.4%，是预期0.2%的两 倍，同比增幅3.9%也超出3.7%的预期。私营非农部门员工平均时薪达到36.24美元。然而，这种工资增 长更多反映的是劳动力供给端的收紧，而非需求端的强劲。报告显示，全职就业岗位减少62.3万个，而 兼职岗位仅增加3.3万个，这表明企业可能正在通过减少用工时间来应对经济不确定性，而不是大规模 招聘。 【机构观点】 金瑞期货：上周五公布的非农数据保持韧性，给美联储维持鹰派政策提供了空间，对金银价格进一步上 涨不利，黄金价格在高位进一步承压。展望未来，短期内市场避险需求仍偏弱，货币政策也预计维持鹰 派，并不利于贵金属价格的进一步上涨，预计贵金属价格将在政策信号与宏观数据公布的影响下继续震 荡，接下来需要重点关注周内即将公布的CPI数据。Comex黄金运行区间3300-345 ...

Economic Indicators - In April, US durable goods orders fell by 6.3% month-on-month, indicating a decline in corporate investment sentiment due to uncertainties in tariff and tax policies [1] - The US PCE price index recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.1% in April, marking the lowest level since March 2021 [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 2.06% week-on-week, reflecting a downturn in consumer and business spending [1] Tariff Policies - On May 28, the US International Trade Court ruled that tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were overreaching, halting several trade policies announced on "Liberation Day" [1] - The following day, the US Court of Appeals temporarily stayed the trade court's order, allowing Trump's tariff policies to continue [1] - The Trump administration announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% starting June 4, prompting the EU to prepare countermeasures [1] Market Reactions - The volatility in domestic tariff policies and escalating trade tensions between the US and EU, along with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have significantly heightened market risk aversion [1] - Due to the impact of tariffs and the low base effect expected in 2024, the market anticipates a resurgence of inflation in the US by June, which may support a rebound in gold prices [1] - Investors are advised to consider accumulating gold ETFs (518800) during price corrections [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold jewelry retail prices have returned to over 1000 yuan per gram, indicating a significant increase in gold prices in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - As of May 21, the retail price of gold jewelry in China has surpassed 1000 yuan per gram, with Lao Miao Gold reporting 1004 yuan per gram, an increase of 27 yuan from the previous day, and Liufu Jewelry at 1008 yuan per gram, up by 26 yuan [1]. - Other brands such as Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Sheng Sheng also have their gold jewelry prices exceeding 1000 yuan per gram [1]. Group 2: International Gold Prices - On May 21, the spot gold price exceeded 3300 USD per ounce for the first time since May 9, with a daily increase of 0.35%. COMEX gold reached 3316.8 USD per ounce, marking a daily rise of 0.61% [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Influences - A surge in A-share gold concept stocks was observed, with Shan Jin International rising over 3%, alongside increases in other gold-related stocks such as Sichuan Gold and Shandong Gold [4]. - The comments from the Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, suggest a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, which may influence gold prices amid inflation and recession concerns [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Intelligence reports indicate potential military actions by Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities, contributing to market volatility and influencing gold price trends [5]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will experience high volatility in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, with a long-term upward trend driven by inflation concerns and central bank gold accumulation [5]. - UBS strategists expect the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates, which is a key factor supporting gold prices, with projections for gold to reach 3500 USD per ounce by the end of the year, and potentially 3800 USD per ounce in a risk-off scenario [6].

Group 1 - International spot gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling over 2% to a low of $3,220 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures hitting a low of $3,228 per ounce, down $281.6 from the historical high of $3,509.9 per ounce on April 22, representing a decline of over 8% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also decreased, with brands like Lao Miao and Chow Tai Fook adjusting their prices to 995 yuan per gram and 1,009 yuan per gram respectively, marking the first time in 20 days that prices fell below 1,000 yuan [1] - In Shenzhen, a major gold jewelry hub, prices dropped to 780 yuan per gram, and merchants are offering discounts on processing fees to attract customers during the holiday [3] Group 2 - The decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including a reduction in demand for safe-haven assets due to easing international trade tensions, and profit-taking by investors amid high market sentiment [3] - Ahead of the Labor Day holiday, Chinese traders sold nearly 1 million ounces of gold futures and spot gold, leading to a decrease in total holdings compared to historical highs [3] - Despite the short-term decline, long-term market conditions, including ongoing risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts, are expected to support gold prices [5] Group 3 - The recent volatility in gold prices has prompted exchanges to take notice, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusting trading fees and margin levels for gold futures contracts [6] - Several domestic gold ETFs have suspended subscription and redemption services, advising investors to be cautious of short-term trading risks [6] - Experts believe that while gold is currently experiencing a pullback, it remains in a trend of oscillating upward, supported by market demand for safe-haven assets and rising inflation risks in the U.S. [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant drop in gold prices, with spot gold falling over $50 to below $3240, closing at $3233.21 per ounce, a decrease of 1.67% [1] - Multiple gold jewelry brands have lowered their prices, with notable prices being 995 CNY per gram for Lao Miao, 1002 CNY per gram for Chow Sang Sang, and 1009 CNY per gram for Chow Tai Fook [2] - There is a high demand for gold bars, with reports of daily sales reaching up to 10 kilograms in some stores, indicating a strong consumer interest in purchasing gold at lower prices [4] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have caused significant losses for short-term investors, with one investor reportedly losing over 470,000 CNY in a single night due to price volatility [5] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted trading fees and margin levels for gold futures contracts in response to the increased volatility, indicating heightened market activity and risk management measures [7] - Several banks have issued warnings regarding the risks associated with gold investments, advising clients to manage their positions carefully amid rising market volatility [8] Group 3 - Some gold ETFs have temporarily suspended subscription and redemption services, urging investors to be cautious of short-term trading risks [9] - Analysts from Dongfang Jincheng and Goldman Sachs suggest that despite the recent price adjustments, gold remains in an upward trend supported by market demand for safe-haven assets and central bank purchases [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant drop in gold prices, highlighting the volatility in the market and its impact on consumer behavior and investment strategies [1][9][12]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On May 1, gold prices fell over $50, dropping below the $3,240 mark, with a reported price of $3,233.21 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.67% [1][2]. - Multiple gold jewelry brands have reduced their prices, with specific prices listed for various brands, such as 995 RMB per gram for Lao Miao gold jewelry and 1,002 RMB per gram for Chow Sang Sang [2][4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Demand - There is a notable increase in consumer interest in gold, with many looking to buy at lower prices or sell high-value gold items. Reports indicate that gold bars are in high demand, with one merchant stating they sell several kilograms daily [7]. - The gold recovery business is also experiencing a surge, with a reported increase of over 70% in the total weight of gold recovered in April compared to the previous month [7]. Group 3: Investment Risks and Market Reactions - Investors have faced significant losses due to the recent price fluctuations, with reports of individuals losing over 470,000 RMB in a single night after buying gold at a high price [9][10]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced adjustments to trading fees and margin requirements for gold futures contracts, reflecting the increased volatility and risk in the market [11][12]. - Financial institutions are advising investors to be cautious and manage their risk exposure due to the heightened volatility in gold prices [13].

4月22日，站稳3400美元/盎司的国际金价再度冲高，盘中触及3509.9美元/盎司。而在此后，国际金价就快速回落，目前已接连失守3400美元和3500美元两个 整数关口。 东方金诚研究发展部副总监瞿瑞对央广财经记者表示，国际金价突然回调，一方面源于金价上行至历史高位区间，市场恐高情绪可能引发部分资金获利了 结，进而导致金价调整；另一方面则因中美贸易谈判出现边际缓和迹象，加之美国国内政策博弈也有所缓和，带动美元指数修复，对金价形成一定压制。 展望后市，瞿瑞认为，黄金依然处于震荡上行的趋势之中，主要受到市场避险需求支撑、美国"通胀上行"风险加剧、全球央行配置黄金意愿仍较强、美元信 用风险延续、投机和配置资金或将继续交替流入黄金市场等影响，但短期内需要警惕金价高位波动风险。 央广网北京4月23日消息（记者 冯方）近期价格大涨的黄金赚足了市场眼光。而在昨日（4月22日）突破历史新高的国际金价，忽然从3500美元/盎司关口转 向回调。Wind数据显示，截至北京时间4月23日15时，COMEX黄金价格当日已跌超2%，近两个交易日内连续下破3500美元、3400美元两个整数关口，现报 3322.6美元/盎司。 COMEX ...