Group 1: US Rates Outlook - The report predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut in Q1 2026, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields expected to reach 3.60% and 4.25% in the first half of 2026, and 3.85% and 4.35% by year-end 2026 [1][20][18] - Market expectations for rate cuts are more aggressive than Morgan Stanley's forecasts, but the conclusion of easing cycles in developed markets (DM) may exert mild downward pressure on US Treasury yields [1][21] - The report maintains a soft bearish view on duration, suggesting that yields may not break out of recent ranges despite high expectations for rate cuts [1][23] Group 2: International Rates Dynamics - Since late November 2025, there has been a general sell-off in DM rates due to a hawkish shift in central bank policies, strong economic data, and position unwinds [2][14] - The report anticipates rate cuts from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, while other major central banks are expected to keep rates unchanged [2][14] Group 3: Currency Market Insights - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the US dollar, expecting it to face depreciation pressure in the first half of 2026, driven by improved global economic growth and uncertainties surrounding US fiscal policies [3][8] - The impact of the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments on the yen is expected to be limited, while the appreciation of the Chinese yuan may not be linear due to existing valuation discounts [3][8] Group 4: Commodity Market Analysis - A regime change in Venezuela is identified as a significant upside risk to global oil supply for 2026-2027, with potential increases in production if political transitions occur [4][15] - The report highlights that the surge in silver prices could negatively impact demand, particularly in the solar energy sector, where silver's cost share in solar panels has risen significantly [4][15] Group 5: Emerging Markets Outlook - Morgan Stanley expresses an optimistic view on emerging markets for 2026, suggesting that lower macro volatility will support local currency markets [5][15] - The report recommends an overweight position in emerging market currencies and rates, particularly through high-yield bonds and medium-weight sovereign and corporate bonds [5][15] Group 6: US Economic and Policy Forecast - The projected GDP growth rate for the US in 2026 is 2.2%, with core PCE inflation expected to remain at 2.8% [6][20] - The unemployment rate is forecasted to peak at 4.5% in Q4 2026, with the Federal Reserve likely to pause rate changes after the anticipated cut in January [6][20] Group 7: Global Economic and Policy Outlook - The report indicates a shift from synchronized rate cuts to simultaneous pauses in monetary policy among major economies, with limited room for further easing due to improved global growth and moderate inflation changes [7][10] - Key themes for 2026 include the impact of fiscal policy and investments in artificial intelligence on the economy and markets [7][10] Group 8: Global Macro Strategy Summary - The global market in 2026 will be influenced by economic growth, inflation, central bank policies, and geopolitical factors [10][15] - Investors are advised to seek opportunities in interest rates, currencies, and commodities while maintaining an overweight stance on emerging markets [10][15]

美国在委内瑞拉的行动正通过多条渠道冲击金融市场。由于马杜罗被强行控制后，美国总统特朗普与哥伦比亚总统佩特罗(Gustavo Petro)之间的紧张关系加 剧，哥伦比亚的美元债一度跌至新兴市场中表现最差的行列。哥伦比亚比索一度下跌1.9%，随后收复失地。 委内瑞拉债券周一则大幅反弹，为此前在极度低迷价位买入这些债券的对冲基金和其他投资者带来收益。该国政府及其国有石油公司PDVSA的违约债券价 格上涨至约每美元面值40美分。 在其他地区，新兴经济体政府和企业正趁年初之际加快进入全球资本市场发债。墨西哥正在发行2034年、2038年和2056年到期的债券。智利则同时出售以美 元和欧元计价的债券。沙特阿拉伯也加入了这一发债浪潮，旨在为其推动经济摆脱石油依赖的大型多元化项目筹集资金。 MSCI新兴市场指数周一上涨1.6%，收于历史最高水平。台积电贡献了该指数近一半的涨幅，此前高盛集团上调了这家苹果公司和英伟达公司供应商的目标 价。其他涨幅居前的个股还包括三星电子、SK海力士以及阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管美国强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗加剧了市场对地缘政治风险的担忧，但周一新兴市场货币保持稳定，而 ...

受人工智能概念股持续上涨的提振，新兴市场基准股指正朝着其 38 年历史以来的最高点攀升。自去年 4 月以来，人工智能板块的涨势已为全球股东累计增加约 10 万亿美元的财富。 截至伦敦时间周一上午 7 点 51 分，摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数（MSCI Emerging Markets Index） 上涨 1.2%，不仅有望创下收盘历史新高，同时也迎来了自 2018 年以来表现最佳的年度开局。 其中，台积电的涨幅贡献超过该指数整体涨幅的一半。此前，高盛集团上调了这家苹果与英伟达核心供 应商的目标股价。除此之外，三星电子、SK 海力士及阿里巴巴集团等个股也成为推动指数上涨的主要 力量。 2026 年开局，新兴市场股市延续了强劲势头。2025 年，该板块不仅录得八年来最大年度涨幅，还实现 了自该年度起首次跑赢美股的表现。美元走弱、美国投资者寻求海外资产配置，再加上加纳、韩国等经 济体的改革势头，共同为此次涨势提供了支撑。 市场对亚洲企业人工智能发展前景的乐观预期，以及对中国推出更多刺激政策的期待，同样推动了资金 流入新兴市场。基金经理们愈发认为，目前市场对这类资产的配置比例偏低。 "这波行情的到来确实是蓄势已久 ...

智通财经获悉，受亚洲科技股持续走强和全球股市普遍上涨的提振，新兴市场股票有望创下历史新高。 MSCI新兴市场指数周一一度上涨1.3%，有望超越五年前创下的峰值。韩美半导体和快手科技是当日表 现最佳的股票之一，涨幅均超过10%。 这一涨势反映出投资者对人工智能相关资产的强劲需求，而人工智能相关资产仍然是全球股市的焦点。 韩国和中国台湾的基准股指以及亚太地区指数也均创下新高。 盛宝银行首席投资策略师Charu Chanana表示："短期来看，新兴市场可能仍能获得支撑，但走势可能较 为谨慎，波动较大，而非直线上涨。有利因素在于，亚洲科技和人工智能供应链的增长势头可能继续推 高指数，尤其是在全球风险偏好保持坚挺的情况下。" 交易员们目前正在寻找新的催化剂来推动下一轮上涨，即将公布的美国经济数据和关键企业财报将为市 场健康状况提供线索。市场对美联储计划降息前景的担忧，以及美国突袭委内瑞拉领导人后地缘政治紧 张局势再度加剧，都令市场情绪保持谨慎。 来源：智通财经 新兴市场资产年初表现强劲，分析师预计，随着美国经济前景疲软对美元构成压力，这波涨势可能持续 到2026年。亚洲众多为人工智能供应链提供关键零部件的供应商也助力该 ...

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market bonds are expected to gain support by 2026 as these securities are increasingly held by local investors who are less affected by currency risks, thus demonstrating greater resilience [1][4]. Group 1: Local Investor Trends - Local pension funds and insurance companies in developing countries are increasing their purchases of domestic currency bonds to meet their growing liabilities [1]. - The relative decline in foreign ownership of emerging market bonds is a key reason for the positive outlook on this asset class [4]. - The proportion of foreign investors holding Mexican bonds has decreased from approximately 29% at the beginning of 2020 to about 11%, while the share for Indonesian bonds has dropped from nearly 40% to around 13% during the same period [4]. Group 2: Performance and Volatility - Emerging market bonds showed strong performance in 2025, with an index return of 9.3%, the best since 2019, compared to a 6.3% return for developed market bonds [4]. - The volatility of emerging market bonds is generally lower than that of developed market bonds, with a standard deviation of yield changes over the past 12 months at 0.02 compared to 0.04 for developed markets [5]. - The correlation between emerging market local currency government bond indices and U.S. Treasury yields has decreased to -0.06, the lowest level since 2014, indicating reduced sensitivity to U.S. market fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Market Maturity - Local bond buyers are typically less affected by exchange rate risks and tend to be more strategic long-term holders, indicating a maturation and deepening of financial markets [5]. - The withdrawal of foreign investors helps reduce specific market sensitivity to global market forces, thereby giving greater importance to domestic factors [6].

这一波股市上涨凸显出投资者对与人工智能相关资产的无比热情，人工智能主题在年初时成为全球股市 的主要叙事方向。科技股表现尤为突出，领涨板块上涨了2.8%。这种增长得益于新上市公司和技术相 关进展所带来的市场激情。投资者将目光聚焦于发展中的技术进步和公司创新，特别是在人工智能应用 领域所带来的商业潜力。 市场分析人士指出，投资者对于美国经济增长和人工智能持有过重仓位，他们正在寻找那些估值可能更 低或在上一轮经济周期中表现不佳的领域进行投资。正因为此，新兴市场成为了投资者们心目中的理想 选择。这些市场不仅为投资者提供了全面发展的机会，而且在科技股方面，尤其是人工智能领域，展现 出了巨大的潜力。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：美股情报站） 2026年开启以来，新兴市场股票迎来了近年来最为强劲的开局表现，已升至自2021年后的最高点，尤其 受到亚洲地区人工智能热潮推动的发展势头。市场对人工智能在亚洲地区崛起所带来的潜力充满期待， 这让该地区的科技股蓬勃发展。MSCI的发展中国家指数在新年的首个交易日中上涨了1.7%，达到了自 2021年2月以来的最高水平，同时，相应的货币指数则保持不变。 进入2026年后，新兴市场的迅速发展 ...

Core Insights - The trend of Chinese companies going global is driven by the need for growth and market expansion as domestic markets become saturated [2][7] - Companies are seeking to optimize resource allocation, reduce risks, and pursue technological upgrades and brand elevation through international operations [2][4] Group 1: Motivations for Going Global - The primary motivation is to explore new markets, particularly in emerging economies, which offer significant growth potential due to large populations [2] - Companies aim to optimize resource allocation and mitigate risks by diversifying their market presence and leveraging local advantages [2] - The pursuit of technological innovation and brand enhancement is crucial, as competing in developed markets can drive companies to innovate [2] - Domestic policies, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, provide support for companies looking to expand internationally [2] Group 2: Opportunities in Global Markets - Emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, present substantial consumer demand driven by a growing middle class [4] - China's robust manufacturing and supply chain capabilities allow companies to efficiently meet global demands, especially in sectors like renewable energy and digital economy [4] - Technological advancements, such as cross-border e-commerce and digital payment systems, lower barriers for small and medium-sized enterprises to engage in global trade [4] Group 3: Challenges in International Expansion - Cross-cultural management and compliance risks pose significant challenges due to varying legal systems, business practices, and cultural differences across countries [6] - Companies face pressure from local competitors and must establish reliable local supply chains, which can increase logistics costs and complexity [6] - Geopolitical and economic uncertainties, including trade tensions and currency fluctuations, can impact overseas operations [6] - Building a high-end brand image and finding talent with both international perspective and local experience are critical hurdles for many Chinese brands [6] Conclusion - The journey of going global has shifted from an optional strategy to a necessity for companies, requiring a long-term commitment and deep local insights to navigate the complexities of international markets [7]

【外资看好新兴市场投资机遇】2025年新兴市场资产表现亮眼，MSCI新兴市场指数今年以来累计涨幅 近30%。多家国际投行认为，在美联储降息、美元走弱的宏观环境下，以中国为代表的新兴市场迎来配 置窗口期。（中证报） ...

2025年新兴市场资产表现亮眼，MSCI新兴市场指数今年以来累计涨幅近30%。多家国际投行认为，在 美联储降息、美元走弱的宏观环境下，以中国为代表的新兴市场迎来配置窗口期。（中证报） 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs report indicates a significant shift in China's economic reliance from developed markets to emerging markets and high-tech sectors [1][10] - China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 is adjusted from 4.9% to 5.0%, with subsequent years projected at 4.8% and 4.7% due to strong export performance [1][12] - The report highlights China's strategic move to establish manufacturing bases in Southeast Asia and Latin America to circumvent tariffs, showcasing resilience in its manufacturing sector [1][3] Export Dynamics - China's exports are increasingly driven by emerging markets, with trade along the Belt and Road Initiative nearing 50% of total trade [3][12] - The shift in product structure from low-end goods to high-tech items, particularly electric vehicles (EVs) and photovoltaics, is notable, with EV exports growing over 90% in early 2025 [3][12] - China now accounts for 40% of global EV exports, with the International Energy Agency predicting over 20 million global sales in 2025, largely driven by Chinese contributions [3][10] Economic Resilience - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters stands at 5.2%, with a third-quarter growth of 4.8%, reflecting a shift towards high-tech and equipment manufacturing [5][12] - The country is diversifying its import sources, as seen in its shift to Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, reducing dependency on U.S. agricultural products [3][5] - The report emphasizes that China is not isolating itself but rather expanding its global network, maintaining innovation and cooperation [5][12] Strategic Adjustments - China's output of comprehensive solutions, including payment systems and AI, is gaining traction in new markets, positioning the country as a leader in the global competition for new energy and market potential [7][10] - The financial market reflects this transformation, with international capital flowing into Chinese assets, indicating a growing confidence in China's economic prospects [7][13] - The report suggests that the restructuring of global economic dynamics is favoring China, as it moves from a peripheral player to a central role in the global value chain [8][13]