Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the methanol 2601 contract of domestic methanol futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday, with bearish factors dominating [1][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Methanol 2601 Contract Outlook - In the short - term (within a week), medium - term (two weeks to a month), and intraday, the methanol 2601 contract is expected to be weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1]. Core Logic - After the market digested the event of sanctions on Iranian methanol vessels, the bullish driving force weakened. The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase, with the annual import peak already reached. As a result, the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China before the festival are high. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is poor, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved. Affected by the medium - term downward trend, on Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly lower by 0.65% to 2,282 yuan/ton [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the fuel oil market are affected by multiple factors. The expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals from the West in October may suppress the market in the short term, but the recovery of ship - owner procurement activities in the North Asian market after the long - holiday is expected to boost downstream low - sulfur fuel oil inquiries. - The current situation of the fuel oil market is complex, with a mix of long and short factors. The inventory in Singapore decreased in the week of October 8, which is positive. However, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main positions have different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. - The market sentiment is stable overnight. OPEC + increased production steadily in September, and there is no new news of energy sanctions on Russia for now. The demand side still faces pressure, and the shipping demand for fuel oil is weak in the short term. The prices of FU2601 and LU2511 are expected to fluctuate within specific ranges: FU2601 between 2710 - 2760 and LU2511 between 3200 - 3250 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral. The expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals from the West in October may suppress the market, but downstream inquiries are expected to rise. The basis is neutral as the spot is at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore decreased by 164 barrels to 2061.9 barrels in the week of October 8, which is positive. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is negative. The main positions of high - sulfur fuel oil are short (with short positions decreasing), and for low - sulfur fuel oil, the main positions changed from short to long, both being negative. The prices of FU2601 and LU2511 are expected to fluctuate in the ranges of 2710 - 2760 and 3200 - 3250 respectively [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - The driving force of the market is the resonance between the supply affected by geopolitical risks and the neutral demand. The risk points include the breakdown of OPEC + internal unity and the escalation of war. The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there are potential negative factors such as the possible intensification of sanctions on Russia and the extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The prices of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are 382.29 dollars/ton and 452.5 dollars/ton respectively, with the basis of 37 yuan/ton and 24 yuan/ton. The spot is at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore on October 8 was 2061.9 barrels, a decrease of 164 barrels compared to the previous period [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis is provided other than the basis information mentioned above. 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory data of Singapore fuel oil shows that on October 8, the inventory was 2061.9 barrels, a decrease of 164 barrels from the previous week. The inventory has fluctuated from July 30 to October 8, with some weeks showing increases and others showing decreases [3][8].

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 10 月 13 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 豆粕2601 | 2934 | 2938 | 2944 | 2903 | 2922 | -12 | -0.41% | 8723 ...

2025.10.13-10.17 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 中线行情分析 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周纯碱期货延续弱势震荡。周度产量稳定在7 7 . 6 9万吨，开工率 由89.12%略降至88.41%。厂家总库存增加至165.98万吨，轻质纯 碱库存上升1万吨，重质库存微降。需求方面，浮法玻璃熔量维持 约16万吨/天，光伏玻璃熔量环比下降，纯碱表观消费量88.1万吨， 环比增长9.34万吨，但光伏减产抑制重碱需求。整体来看，纯碱市 场受新增产能释放影响，供应偏强，需求难超预期，价格或继续承 压下行。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 上周国内纯碱市场窄幅震荡，价格区域分化，整体波动有限。 供应小幅回升，需求平稳但提振不足，企业以执行订单为主， 库存压力尚可。期货先跌后涨，受玻璃走势及节前补库带动 情绪回暖，但高库存制约反弹空间，短期预计延续震荡，需 关注基本面实质改善。预计 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ethylene glycol futures experienced a slight decline of 0.51%, closing at 4116.00 yuan, with a minimum drop to 4098.00 yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Zhonghui Futures suggests a cautious bearish outlook for ethylene glycol, indicating that domestic production is slightly increasing while overseas production remains stable. Although terminal consumption has improved, expectations are under pressure. Overall inventory is low, providing some price support, but with new production facilities coming online and maintenance facilities resuming, supply is expected to increase post-holiday, leading to a potential inventory build-up [2]. - Foshan Jinkong Futures notes that the cost side lacks support, and domestic operating rates have significantly increased, with new facilities adding pressure to the market. The main contract is expected to find support around 4000-4100 yuan, indicating a potential for low-level consolidation [3]. - Wukuang Futures recommends a wait-and-see approach, highlighting that both domestic and international production levels are high, with an increase in imports leading to port inventory accumulation. The expectation for the fourth quarter is continued inventory build-up, with current valuations being neutral to low, suggesting limited downside potential [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and a notable decline in demand from downstream industries [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for caustic soda opened at 2520.0 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 2526.0 CNY and a minimum of 2442.0 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.35% [1] - The overall performance of the caustic soda market is weak, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The expected decrease in maintenance losses for chlor-alkali plants in October may lead to an increase in caustic soda production capacity utilization [1] - Despite the decline in alumina profits nearing the breakeven point, there are no large-scale production cut plans, suggesting that short-term caustic soda demand will not significantly shrink [1] - The logistics disruptions during the National Day holiday have led to expectations of inventory accumulation in liquid caustic soda plants [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - As downstream non-aluminum industries resume operations post-holiday, the inventory pressure on liquid caustic soda plants may ease [1] - New alumina production facilities are expected to come online in Q4 this year to early next year, which could improve supply-demand dynamics in the long term [1] - The price range for caustic soda futures is anticipated to be between 2470-2580 CNY in the near term [1] Group 4: Regional Insights - In Shandong, there is no significant positive demand post-National Day, leading to high operational loads for chlor-alkali enterprises and increased inventory pressure [2] - The overall supply pressure remains due to the commissioning of new facilities, while the demand from downstream sectors is not meeting expectations [2] - The textile and dyeing industries are seeing a slight increase in operating rates, but the overall demand recovery is still dependent on marginal improvements from downstream sectors [2]

10月9日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，PVC期货主力合约开盘报4825.00元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至午间收盘，PVC主力最高触及4825.00元，下方探低4719.00元，跌幅达2.78%。 目前来看，PVC行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于PVC后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 新湖期货指出，多数装置在长假前结束检修，节前检修大幅下降，开工提升，节后有一定检修，但检修 量不及前期，开工将总体稳定在76%的水平。近期电石价格出现较为明显上涨，主要由于内蒙古错峰用 电与检修导致的阶段性供给收缩，叠加节前备货推动，上游兰炭价格偏强提供成本支撑；假期期间运输 限制将导致上涨趋缓。房地产新开工及施工节奏仍慢，且当前需求淡季向旺季过度，管材型材开工略有 提升，终端订单一般，按需采购为主。印度公布PVC反倾销终裁，对中国税额显著上调，预期后续对中 国出口形成压制。需求向旺季转换，终端订单一般，供应提升，库存连续累库，总体库存仍维持在高 位。近几个月连续累库至库存高位，供应端新增产能投放、开工回升，地产偏弱、出口不确定，短期基 本面偏弱，未来需求取决于下游旺季开工情况。中长期政策落地、淘 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - term trend of the soybean meal futures main contract is in a wide - range oscillatory phase, lacking strong upward momentum but supported by import costs. The soybean oil futures main contract is in an oscillatory consolidation phase, affected by various factors such as inventory, demand, and policies [8][30]. - To avoid the risk of external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [12][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 38th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.25 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons or 7.35% from the previous week. The high inventory may be alleviated by partial holiday shutdowns. Demand is restricted by breeding losses, but pre - holiday stocking demand has warmed up the market. The mid - term trend is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US trade progress and South American weather [8]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways phase, with more bullish funds. M2601 was expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 [11]. - This week's strategy suggestion: To avoid the risk of external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [12]. - Variety diagnosis: The main funds are strongly bearish, with a large inflow of funds and a high risk of market reversal [15]. Relevant Data - The report data comes from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, including soybean meal weekly production, inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [19][23][26]. Soybean Oil Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean oil main contract is in an oscillatory consolidation phase. In the 38th week, the actual production of 125 oil mills was 461,200 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory in key regions was 1.2359 million tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous week. Double - festival stocking has slightly increased trading volume, but slow catering demand recovery restricts提货 volume. High operating rates and sufficient port inventories suppress spot prices. After the exhaustion of Argentina's tax - free quota, market sentiment has recovered. The futures show an oscillatory trend affected by US bio - fuel policies and competing oils. It is necessary to pay attention to import costs, competing oil trends, and macro - policies [30]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways phase, with more bullish funds. Y2601 may continue to oscillate in the short term [33]. - This week's strategy suggestion: To avoid the risk of external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [34]. Relevant Data - The report data comes from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department, including soybean oil weekly production, inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, inventory, crushing volume, operating rate, port inventory, and Brazilian premium [42][46][52]

Report Overview - Report Name: "Futures Weekly Report on Rebar and Iron Ore" - Report Period: September 29 - 30, 2025 1. Rebar Futures 1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The main contract of rebar futures is in a consolidation range [7]. - Judgment Logic: Weekly production is 218 million tons, apparent consumption is 196 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 176 million tons, and social inventory is 722 million tons. The AI intelligent investment consulting product diagnosis report shows it's in a consolidation range [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait for the consolidation stage to complete [7]. 1.2 Product Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The main contract of rebar futures entered the first week of the upward ladder [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Enter the consolidation range according to the AI model. Wait for the mid - term trend to become clear [11]. 1.3 Relevant Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [15][17][27] 2. Iron Ore Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The main contract of iron ore futures is in a sideways consolidation stage [32]. - Judgment Logic: Global shipments last week were 2765 million tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 2452 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 8991 million tons, and major domestic port inventory was 13846 million tons. The AI intelligent investment consulting product diagnosis shows a sideways mid - term trend [32]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait for the consolidation stage to complete [32]. 2.2 Product Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The AI model showed that the mid - term price of iron ore was in a consolidation stage [35]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Wait for the mid - term trend to become clear [35]. 2.3 Relevant Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [47][55]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 29 - 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon increased. As of September 26, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9300 yuan/ton, 9900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures showed that the daily price of industrial silicon was in a sideways phase. In terms of funds, the main short - selling camp had a slight advantage [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is expected that the operating range of the industrial silicon 2511 contract will be between 7700 and 10000 [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: Industrial silicon was in a large - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips [11] - This Week's Strategy: To control the uncertainty risk during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the holiday [12] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation [32] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate remained stable. As of September 26, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,250 yuan/ton, and the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,600 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures showed that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures was in a sideways phase. In terms of funds, the main force showed a strong bullish sentiment [33] - Mid - term Strategy: It is expected that the lithium carbonate 2511 contract will operate in the range of 65,000 to 100,000 [33] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: Consider grid trading within the range for lithium carbonate [36] - This Week's Strategy: To control the uncertainty risk during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the holiday [37] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [40] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [42]