Core Viewpoint - Moody's analysis indicates that Indonesia's GDP growth is expected to slow from 4.9% in the first quarter to 4.6% year-on-year in the second quarter, marking the weakest result since September 2021 [1] Economic Outlook - The anticipated GDP growth of 4.6% will be the lowest since the economic contraction caused by COVID-19 lockdowns in September 2021 [1] - Moody's forecasts a GDP growth of 4.7% for 2025, which is below the government's target of 5% [1] Contributing Factors - Global trade tensions are likely to exert pressure on exports [1] - Declining consumer confidence, slowing industrial activity, and high unemployment rates are expected to weigh on domestic economic performance [1] Upcoming Data - GDP data is scheduled to be released on Tuesday [1]

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 542.40 points (1.23%) to close at 43,588.58, the Nasdaq dropping by 2.24% to 20,650.13, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.60% to 6,238.01 [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones fell by 2.9%, the S&P 500 decreased by 2.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.2% [2] Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in the last month, falling short of the expected increase of 104,000, while the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [3] - Employment growth revisions for May and June were significantly downward, surprising many analysts [3] - Job creation was primarily concentrated in previously understaffed sectors such as healthcare and social assistance, indicating a steady decline in the breadth of job creation [3] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's survey indicated that US consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month in July, with inflation expectations for the next year dropping to the lowest level since February [3] - Despite the positive trend in consumer sentiment, overall market sentiment remains negative, with consumers still cautious about the economic trajectory [3] Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve officials expressed dissent regarding the decision to maintain interest rates, advocating for a loosening of monetary policy to prevent potential deterioration in the labor market [3] Treasury Yields - US Treasury yields fell sharply, with the two-year yield dropping by 26.5 basis points to 3.7% and the ten-year yield decreasing by 15.1 basis points to 4.22% [4] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to over 80% according to the FedWatch tool [4] Corporate Performance - Amazon's stock fell by 8.3% following a third-quarter revenue guidance that was below market expectations [5] - Major tech stocks also performed poorly, with Apple down 2.5%, Nvidia down 2.3%, Tesla and Microsoft down 1.8%, and Meta down 0.7% [6] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 1.8%, with Alibaba down 2.9%, NetEase down 2.2%, Baidu down 2.0%, and JD down 1.8% [7] Oil and Gold Prices - Economic uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase expectations pressured oil prices, with WTI crude oil falling by 2.79% to $67.33 per barrel and Brent crude oil down by 2.83% to $69.67 per barrel [7] - Safe-haven sentiment drove gold prices higher, with October contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange surpassing $3,400, marking a 2.02% increase [8]

2025.08. 02 本文字数：1204，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 周五美股全线下挫，特朗普为美国对数十个贸易伙伴征收的新关税打压了市场情绪，而低于预期的就 业报告加剧了避险情绪。 本周，道指累计下跌2.9%，标普500指数下跌2.4%，纳指下跌2.2%。 美国劳工统计局报告称，上个月美国非农就业总人数增加了7.3万人，市场预期增加10.4万人，失业 率环比上升0.1个百分点至4.2%，同时前两个月的就业增长大幅下调。 嘉信理财高级投资策略师戈登（Kevin Gordon）表示："所有人都对5月和6月的向下修正幅度感到 震惊。有利的一面是失业率没有明显飙升。" 罗素投资高级投资策略师林北辰表示，就业增长主要集中在以前人手不足的行业，如医疗保健和社会 救助。"近几个月来，创造就业的广度稳步下降。" 密歇根大学调查显示，7月份美国消费者信心连续第二个月上升，而未来一年的通胀预期降至2月份 以来的最低水平。消费者调查总监Joanne Hsu表示："尽管最近的趋势显示市场情绪朝着有利的方 向发展，但市场情绪总体上仍然是负面的。自4月以来，消费者的担忧有所减轻，不过他们对经济的 轨迹并不乐观。" ...

澳洲联储副主席：消费者信心相当疲弱。 ...

编辑 | 七三 美股齐跌 美国股市周二收低，标普500指数和纳指从历史高位回落。 截至收盘，道指下跌204.57点，报44632.99点，跌幅0.46%；标普500指数下跌18.91点，报6370.86点， 跌幅0.30%；纳指下跌80.29点，报21098.29点，跌幅0.38%。 大型成分股财报整体表现不一。联合健康公布第二季度调整后每股收益为4.08美元，低于市场预期的 4.59美元，且同比下滑40%。股价大跌7.5%，成为道指下行的主要拖累之一。 其他个股方面，波音股价下跌4.4%，默沙东股价收跌1.7%，联合包裹股价暴跌10.6%，消费品巨头宝洁 股价下跌0.3%。 诺和诺德重挫约22%，报53.94美元，创三年新低。公司下调2025财年销售和利润预期，预计全年销售 增长为8%-14%，此前为13%-21%，主因减肥药Wegovy销售表现不佳。 大型科技股涨跌不一。Meta Platforms 收跌 2.46%，特斯拉跌 1.35%，苹果跌 1.3%，亚马逊跌 0.76%， 英伟达下挫 0.70%，微软微涨 0.01%，谷歌A逆势上涨 1.65%。 热门中概股普遍走低，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌1.3 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market closed lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreating from historical highs as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy statement and reacted to disappointing corporate earnings [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 204.57 points to 44,632.99, a decrease of 0.46%; the S&P 500 dropped 18.91 points to 6,370.86, down 0.30%; and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 80.29 points to 21,098.29, a drop of 0.38% [1] US-China Economic Relations - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held constructive talks in Stockholm, focusing on US-China economic relations and macroeconomic policies [2] - Both sides emphasized the importance of a stable and healthy economic relationship, which is beneficial for their development goals and global economic stability [2] Corporate Earnings Performance - UnitedHealth reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.08, below the expected $4.59, and lowered its full-year EPS forecast to at least $16, causing its stock to drop by 7.5% [2] - Boeing's Q2 revenue was $22.75 billion, exceeding expectations, but reported a core EPS loss of $1.24, leading to a 4.4% decline in its stock [3] - Merck's Q2 sales were $15.81 billion, slightly above expectations, but its adjusted EPS of $2.13 was down year-over-year, resulting in a 1.7% stock decline [3] - UPS's stock plummeted by 10.6% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.55, slightly below expectations, and failing to provide full-year guidance [3] - Procter & Gamble's Q4 sales were $20.89 billion, with core EPS of $1.48, both slightly above expectations, but its growth forecast for FY2026 was below market expectations [3] - Novo Nordisk's stock fell approximately 22% after lowering its sales and profit outlook for FY2025 due to poor performance of its weight-loss drug Wegovy [4] Economic Data - The US trade deficit narrowed to $86 billion in June, a decrease of 10.8%, with imports down by 4.2% [4] - Job openings in the US fell to 7.44 million, below the expected 7.5 million, indicating stable labor demand [5] - Consumer confidence in the US rose in July, with the index increasing to 97.2, slightly above expectations [6] Upcoming Events - Investors are focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll report, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates [7] - Major tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, are set to release earnings this week, which are anticipated to significantly impact overall market trends [4]

Group 1 - The number of job openings in the U.S. decreased from a revised 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, below the market expectation of 7.5 million, indicating a cooling labor market but still a stable overall demand for workers [1] - The decline in job openings was broad-based, primarily driven by the accommodation and food services, healthcare, and finance and insurance sectors [1] - The job openings remain above pre-pandemic average levels, suggesting a relatively healthy demand for workers despite a slowdown in hiring and longer time for unemployed individuals to find new positions [1] Group 2 - The hiring rate in June slowed to 3.3%, the lowest level since November of the previous year, while layoffs remained low and voluntary resignations were scarce, indicating decreased confidence in finding new jobs [1] - The ratio of unemployed workers to job openings remained at 1.1, down from a peak of 2:1 in 2022, which is closely monitored by Federal Reserve officials as a measure of labor supply and demand balance [2] - An independent report indicated that consumer confidence in July improved as concerns about the broader economy and labor market outlook eased [2]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国6月份的职位空缺在前两个月连续跃升后有所下降，但仍徘徊在一个表明劳动力需求总体稳定的水 平。 根据美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据，职位空缺从5月份修正后的771万个减少到744万个，低于市场预 期的750万个。 每个失业工人对应的职位空缺数——美联储官员作为劳动力供需平衡的一个代表指标而密切关注的比率 ——保持在1.1。在2022年的峰值时期，该比率为2比1。 一些经济学家对JOLTS数据的有效性提出了质疑，部分原因是该调查的回复率低且修正幅度大。招聘网 站Indeed一个每日报告的类似指数显示，6月份的职位空缺有所下降，延续了今年以来稳步下降的趋 势。 周二的另一份独立数据显示，随着对更广泛经济和劳动力市场前景的担忧有所缓解，美国7月份的消费 者信心有所增强。 劳动力市场的状况将是本周美联储政策会议的一个主要议题。美联储主席鲍威尔曾将劳动力市场描述 为"稳固"，并以关税对通胀影响的不确定性作为维持利率稳定的理由。 外界普遍预计官员们本周会再次这样做，但一些希望提振正在放缓的劳动力市场的决策者可能会提出异 议。这一点在将于周五公布的7月份非农就业报告 ...

一项重要的消费者信心调查显示，谨慎的英国家庭比全球金融危机爆发以来的任何时候都更倾向于储 蓄。GfK的储蓄指数上升7点，至34，为2007年11月以来的最高水平，原因是由于担心秋季进一步加 税，英国家庭正在建立"应急基金"。GfK消费者洞察总监尼尔·贝拉米表示，"数据表明，一些人可能预 感到未来形势严峻"，因为人们猜测可能加税，价格压力将导致通胀上升。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, the company delivered 1,326 homes at an average sales price of $664,000, generating $880 million in home sales revenue [5][12] - Adjusted net income was $69 million or $0.77 per diluted share, reflecting a stable financial performance despite market challenges [6][13] - Homebuilding gross margin, adjusted to exclude an inventory-related charge, was 22.1% [5][13] - The company ended the quarter with $1.4 billion in total liquidity, including $623 million in cash [7][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated 1,131 net new home orders in the quarter, with a monthly absorption rate of 2.5 homes per average selling community [6][12] - The absorption pace varied by region, with the East showing a stronger pace of 3.1 homes per community per month, while the Central region had a pace of 2.3 [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the Inland Empire, San Diego, and Seattle markets showed stronger demand, while Sacramento and Arizona experienced softer markets [13][14] - In the Central region, Austin, Dallas, and Denver showed softer demand due to increased supply of both new and resale homes [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on balancing pace and price on a community-by-community basis, moderating start pace to normalize spec inventory [6][10] - New market expansions in Utah, Florida, and the Coastal Carolinas are expected to contribute to meaningful growth over time [10] - The company plans to continue prioritizing price over pace to maintain margins and profitability [50][51] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the housing market, citing favorable demographics and a persistent supply-demand imbalance [19][88] - The near-term outlook remains challenging due to policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions affecting buyer confidence [6][10] Other Important Information - The company returned $100 million to shareholders through share repurchases, reducing its share count by 3.5% in Q2 [8][9] - The company has a disciplined land investment strategy, focusing on opportunities that yield the strongest returns in core markets [8][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in hitting fourth quarter volume guide - Management indicated confidence in hitting the implied fourth quarter volume guide, supported by sufficient move-in ready and spec homes [21][23] Question: Expectations for incentives and gross margin - Incentives were reported at 7.1% in Q2, with a slight increase expected in the back half of the year [25][26] Question: Details on the impairment charge - The $11 million impairment charge was related to a Bay Area project that failed the impairment test due to challenging market conditions [31][32] Question: Absorption trends throughout the quarter - Absorption started strong in April, peaked in May, and trended down in June, following seasonal patterns [38][39] Question: Strategic approach to pace and price - The company will continue to favor price over pace, citing consumer confidence as a key driver [49][50] Question: Current build time and improvement opportunities - The average build time is currently 115 working days, with ongoing initiatives to reduce cycle times [94][95]