Core Insights - The holiday shopping season is facing challenges due to high tariffs on imported goods, leading to increased prices and cautious consumer spending [1][4][20] - Consumers are opting for less expensive gift options, with a notable decrease in estimated gift budgets [2][5][20] - Despite initial fears, the worst-case impact of tariffs on consumer prices has not fully materialized, although certain categories have seen significant price increases [6][20] Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with many choosing lower-priced items, such as a $100 gift basket instead of a $150 one [2][4] - A Gallup index indicates a decline in consumer confidence, reaching a 17-month low, with gift budgets decreasing by $229 from October to November [5][20] Product Categories Affected - **Games and Toys**: Prices for toys have increased by 5% to 20% due to tariffs, with some items seeing price hikes from $20-$25 to $30-$35 [7][8][20] - **Electronics**: In 2023, China accounted for 78% of U.S. smartphone imports and 79% of laptop imports, with companies like Best Buy adjusting their inventory to cater to lower-income shoppers [9][10][20] - **Jewelry**: Price increases are more influenced by rising gold prices than tariffs, although tariffs on imports from countries like Switzerland and India are expected to affect prices in the future [12][14][20] - **Holiday Decorations**: Tariffs have slowed production and increased prices for holiday decor items, with some products seeing price increases from $8.95 to $10.95 [15][16][20] Strategic Shopping Recommendations - Consumers are advised to explore secondhand stores and discount retailers to avoid tariff-related price increases, as these stores often have inventory that predates the tariffs [17][20] - Domestically produced goods such as books, food, and beverages are suggested as good gift options to mitigate the impact of tariffs [18][20]

不过，周四数据已处于2025年迄今较高水平。近期，百事和惠普等企业已宣布裁员计划，而全美10月的 裁员人数为2023年初以来最高。近几个月来，劳动力市场前景担忧拖累了消费者信心。 今日周五(12月12日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于63.69一线上方，今日开盘于63.51美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报63.68美元/盎司，上涨0.22%，最高触及63.93美元/盎司，最低下探62.89美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 在感恩节假期间大幅下降之后，美国上周初请失业金人数录得疫情爆发以来最大单周增幅。 劳工部周四数据显示，截至12月6日当周，初请人数增加4.4万人至23.6万人，为2020年3月以来最大增 幅，此前一周的申请人数为三年多来的最低水平。由于假期因素，初请人数在年底前后通常波动较大， 这种波动可能将持续到年末。 密歇根大学12月初步调查显示，大多数受访者预计未来一年失业率将上升。续请失业金人数在包含感恩 节的一周降至184万。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 伦敦银日图上已实现看涨旗形形态的向上突破。多头的下一个上行价格目标是使收盘价高于坚实的技术 阻力位70.00美元。空 ...

当地时间12月8日，纽约联储公布的最新调查结果显示，美国消费者对11月的通胀预期保持稳定，家庭对当前及未来财务状况的看法更加悲观。 消费者对医疗费用增长的预期升至自2014年1月以来的最高水平，同时对就业前景的看法有所改善。 具体来看，消费者对于 未来一年的通胀预期为3.2%， 几乎没有变化； 对未来三年和五年的通胀预期维持在3%。 受访者们认为，失业概率下滑 至13.8%，且为今年最低水平。 通胀预期持稳 报告显示，消费者对于未来一年的通胀预期保持不变，为3.2%；对未来三年和五年的通胀预期保持稳定，维持在3%。 受访者对于房价的预期同样保持稳定，预计未来房价保持上涨3.0%不变。 食品的价格展望上涨5.9%，汽油价格上涨4.1%，大学教育费用上涨8.4%，租金上涨8.3%。 这些生活必需品价格的上涨，是消费者感受到财务压力上升的核心原因。 值得一提的是，受访者预计未来一年医疗成本上涨至10.1%，且为2014年1月以来的最高值。 劳动力市场方面，消费者对于未来一年失业率上升的担忧稍有缓解，对未来一年失去工作的预期降至自2024年12月以来的最低水平。 同时，预计主动离职的概率也有所下降，还表示如果失业后找 ...

根据美国经济分析局(BEA)的数据，2025年前三个月GDP同比下降0.6%。第二季度则增长了3.8%。BEA 对第三季度经济结果的初步估算计划于12月23日发布。亚特兰大联邦储备银行在12月5日的最新估算显 示，第三季度年化GDP增长率为3.5%。 消费者支出占美国GDP的近70%，但他们对经济状况仍持悲观态度。密歇根大学的消费者信心调查在12 月录得53.3，较11月上升4.5%，但比去年同期下降了28%。 12月5日，COMEX白银库存录得14216.50吨，较上一日减少4.66 吨；comex白银上周五（12月5日）收 报58.88美元/盎司，上涨2.31%，comex白银价格日内最高上探至59.90美元/盎司，最低触及57.32美元/盎 司。 【要闻回顾】 美国财长贝森特周日表示，迄今为止，今年的假日购物季表现"非常强劲"，预计美国经济将在年底保持 稳健。他在接受采访时说："经济表现比我们预期的更好。我们在几个季度实现了4%的GDP增长。尽 管"民主党导致"政府停摆，我们今年仍将以3%的实际GDP增长收官。" 最新comex白银库存数据： | 日期 | comex白银库存量(吨) | 增持/减持（吨 ...

海外关注 12 月 FOMC， 国内监管释放"扶优限劣"信号 核心观点 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 宏观周报 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2025 年 12 月 08 日 ⚫ 海外方面，美国9月核心PCE同比维持在2.8%，符合市场预 期，其中核心商品走高、核心服务降温，巩固12月降息25BP 的预期。密歇根12月消费者信心初值回升至53.3，结束四连 降；1年和5年通胀预期分别降至4.1%和3.2%，均回落至年 初低点，反映居民对未来财务状况与就业的判断有所改善， 通胀预期压力同步缓解。上述数据巩固市场对本月降息25bp 的押注，周五美股小幅走高，10Y美债利率回升至4.12 ...

今日周一(12月8日)欧盘时段，国际白银目前交投于58.12一线上方，今日开盘于58.31美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银 暂报58.28美元/盎司，上涨0.01%，最高触及58.61美元/盎司，最低下探57.52美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线 偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 密歇根大学公布的数据显示，12月消费者信心初值指数从11月的51升至53.3。美国12月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值 4.1%，创下自今年1月以来的最低水平，预期4.5%，前值4.5%。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银自本月初以来一直在更广泛的交易区间内震荡。在近期涨至历史高点的背景下，这仍然可以被归类为看涨的 盘整阶段，并验证了对白银的积极前景，尽管混合的震荡指标需要一些谨慎。 国际白银仍高于200小时指数移动平均线(EMA)56.30美元，保持了更广泛的偏向支撑。移动平均线趋同/背离(MACD)一 度转为负值，滑落至零线以下，随着下行动能的增强。相对强弱指数(RSI)处于中性，表明看涨动能正在减弱。 200小时EMA继续向上倾斜，表明只要价格保持在其上方，潜在趋势将保持支撑。保持在56.20美元以上将限制回调， 而若收盘回到5 ...

基本面： 周一（12月8日）亚盘时段，现货黄金仍徘徊于短期窄幅区间内震荡运行未能摆脱，目前暂交投于4209美元附近。在全球金融市场风起云涌之际，上周五美 元指数经历探底回升的波动，美债收益率攀升至逾两周新高，而黄金价格则冲高回落，上周五（12月5日）现货黄金一度飙升至4260美元/盎司关口附近，但 随后快速转跌，尾盘收报4196.03美元/盎司，回落至4200美元关口下方。这种波动主要源于美联储降息预期的持续支撑与多重压力的交织。一方面，美国9 月消费者支出温和增长，但通胀创近一年半最快增速，导致美元指数承压，这为黄金提供了有利环境。另一方面，黄金面临强阻力位压制，同时美债收益率 持续走高并刷新逾两周高位，进一步拖累金价。此外，随着买家等待现货价格回调，印度和中国等主要市场的实物黄金需求在本周有所减弱，这也加剧了金 价的下行压力。 技术面： 日线级别，金价周五上演过山车走势至尾盘续录得测试高位后长上影线，但仍守住上周盘中突破空间继续争夺，短期或表现较为谨慎等待市场更多指引迎来 突破，交易者密切留意短期4190--4250区间突破情况。1--4小时级别，短线走势自上周盘中上破收敛后整体守住抬升后再度收敛，至周五 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is expected to close the year with a 3% real GDP growth despite the government shutdown, indicating optimism from the White House regarding the economic outlook [1][3][6]. Economic Growth - The U.S. economy has shown better-than-expected performance, with several quarters achieving 4% GDP growth [6]. - The Atlanta Federal Reserve's latest forecast indicates a 3.5% annualized GDP growth for the third quarter [7]. - The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a contraction of 0.6% in GDP year-on-year for Q1 2025, followed by a growth of 3.8% in Q2 [5]. Consumer Sentiment and Inflation - The holiday shopping season has been described as "very strong," yet consumer sentiment remains low, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index at 53.3, down 28% from the previous year [4][8]. - Recent inflation data shows a 3% year-on-year increase in consumer prices, with household food costs rising by 3.1% [8]. - There is a notable disparity between inflation concerns and consumer confidence, as consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP [8]. Government Response to Economic Concerns - The Treasury Secretary attributes consumer concerns about affordability to media reports and states that the government is addressing inflation issues left by the previous administration [9]. - The Secretary expressed confidence that the U.S. will "move towards prosperity" in the coming year [9].

Group 1 - The international silver market is currently trading above $57.80, with a recent opening at $58.31 per ounce and a current price of $57.93, reflecting a decrease of 0.59% [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts a "very strong" holiday shopping season, forecasting a 3% growth in real GDP for the year, despite a 0.6% contraction in the economy over the first three months [1] - Consumer confidence has increased by 4.5% month-on-month in December to 53.3, although it remains down 28% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with the FOMC expected to lower the benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% [3] - The dot plot indicates a median expectation of two rate cuts in 2025 and one each in 2026 and 2027, with potential adjustments signaling hawkish or dovish stances depending on future projections [2] Group 3 - The medium to long-term outlook for international silver remains bullish, while short-term trends suggest a pattern of rising to new highs followed by pullbacks, with key support levels identified between $54 and $55 [4] - Market participants are advised to wait for prices to drop below the 50-day moving average before considering operational opportunities, with the $50 level being a significant point of interest [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The high risk sentiment in the copper market is supporting the price [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 92,780 with a daily increase of 1.98%, and the night - session closing price was 92,380 with a decrease of 0.43%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price was 11,665 with a daily increase of 2.02%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 402,980, a decrease of 51,193 from the previous day, and the open interest was 653,661, an increase of 23,962. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic - trading was 30,645, an increase of 6,105, and the open interest was 342,000, an increase of 966 [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 30,936, a decrease of 1,203 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 162,550, a decrease of 275. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 39.28%, a decrease of 0.23% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The LME Copper premium was 23.05, a decrease of 27.39 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 81,300, an increase of 200. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was 170, unchanged from the previous day. The near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread was - 60, a decrease of 40 [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - **Macro News**: In September, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the core PCE index, rose 2.8% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. The University of Michigan survey showed that U.S. consumer confidence ended four consecutive months of decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level at the beginning of the year [1]. - **Industry News**: Chile's state - owned copper company Codelco offered a record - high copper premium to U.S. customers, over $500 per ton above the London Metal Exchange price. The Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter was ignited for baking, and after reaching full production, it will become the largest copper smelter in Africa. Chile's copper exports in November were 124,422 tons, with 29,112 tons exported to China. Copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,054,487 tons, with 716,614 tons exported to China. Rio Tinto raised its 2025 copper production forecast due to the accelerated operation of the Oyu Tolgoi copper - gold project in Mongolia. Although Ivanhoe Mines made every effort to recover after a mine earthquake and water inflow, the 2026 copper production of its Kamoa - Kakula joint copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo will still be lower than the 2024 level [1][3]. [Trend Intensity] - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].