冯毅浙商资产研究院总经理、浙江工商大学浙商资产管理学院副院长。浙江大学博士后，中央财经大学 博士，高级经济师，北京语言大学商学院硕导，浙江民革经济委员会委员。出版专著《股权结构与董事 会效率关系研究》,译著《灭火—美国金融危机及其教训》等。 2025年作为"十四五"规划的收官之年，我国经济发展面临复杂多变的国内外环境。在全球经济增速放 缓、外需不确定性增强的背景下，2025年《政府工作报告》明确将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全 方位扩大国内需求"列为首要任务，凸显了内需作为经济增长"稳定锚"的战略地位。这一决策不仅是应 对短期经济压力的主动选择，更是推动经济结构转型升级、构建新发展格局的长期考量。如何将内需潜 力转化为经济高质量发展的持续动力？浙商资产研究院总经理、浙江工商大学浙商资产管理学院副院长 冯毅对《金融时报》记者表示，应加强政策评估、创新金融工具，并引导社会预期，确保投资与消费的 有效协同。最终目标是形成投资拉动供给、消费反哺投资的良性循环，缩小区域经济差距，实现经济高 质量发展。 短期稳增长与长期调结构的辩证统一 《金融时报》记者：2025年《政府工作报告》首次将"全方位扩大内需"列为十大任务之 ...

Core Points - The Ministry of Finance has announced a capital injection of 500 billion yuan into four state-owned banks, including Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank, through the issuance of A-shares [1][3] - This capital injection is part of a broader plan to enhance the core Tier 1 capital of six major commercial banks, with the aim of improving their ability to serve the real economy and withstand risks [4][5] - The capital raised will be used entirely to supplement the banks' core Tier 1 capital, which is crucial for their operational stability and risk management [4][8] Summary by Category Capital Injection Details - The specific fundraising amounts for each bank are: Bank of China up to 165 billion yuan, China Construction Bank up to 105 billion yuan, Bank of Communications up to 120 billion yuan, and Postal Savings Bank up to 130 billion yuan [3][4] - The total amount of 500 billion yuan is expected to leverage approximately 4 trillion yuan in credit growth, enhancing the banks' capacity to support the economy [1][11] Regulatory Context - The capital injection aligns with the government's strategic plan to bolster the capital base of state-owned banks, as indicated in the 2025 government work report [5][10] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios of these banks are currently above regulatory requirements, indicating a proactive approach to capital management rather than a reactive measure to financial distress [1][7] Market Implications - Analysts suggest that this capital injection is designed to provide banks with greater flexibility in credit allocation, particularly in supporting strategic emerging industries and green finance [5][10] - The differentiated approach to capital injection, termed "one bank, one policy," reflects a market-oriented and legal framework for enhancing the banks' capital structures [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Four major state-owned banks in China announced plans to raise capital through A-share issuance to supplement their core tier one capital, with total fundraising amounts reaching up to RMB 4,200 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Raising Announcements - The four banks involved are China Construction Bank (CCB), Bank of China (BOC), Bank of Communications (BoCom), and Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC), with respective fundraising targets of RMB 1,050 billion, 1,650 billion, 1,200 billion, and 1,300 billion [1][2]. - The issuance of special government bonds to support these capital increases is imminent, as indicated by the Ministry of Finance [1][2]. Group 2: Government Support and Policy - The government plans to issue RMB 5,000 billion in special bonds to support the capital replenishment of large state-owned commercial banks, as outlined in the government work report [2]. - The approach to increasing core tier one capital was first mentioned on September 24, 2024, as part of a broader set of incremental policies [2]. Group 3: Capital Adequacy Ratios - As of the end of 2024, the core tier one capital adequacy ratios of five major state-owned banks showed varying degrees of improvement compared to mid-2024, with CCB achieving the highest increase of 0.47 percentage points, reaching 14.48% [3][4]. - The capital adequacy ratios for the six major banks are as follows: ICBC at 14.10%, ABC at 11.42%, BOC at 12.20%, CCB at 14.48%, BoCom at 10.24%, and PSBC at 9.28%, all exceeding the regulatory minimum requirements [4]. Group 4: Profit Growth and Loan Issuance - All six major state-owned banks reported positive net profit growth in 2024, with ABC showing the largest increase of 4.76%, reaching RMB 2,826.71 billion [4][5]. - The total new loans issued by the six major banks in 2024 amounted to approximately RMB 9.61 trillion, accounting for about 53.12% of the total industry loans [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Economic Support - The primary goal of increasing core tier one capital is to enhance the banks' ability to support the real economy, as the growth of risk-weighted assets is expected to outpace internal capital growth [6]. - The Ministry of Finance emphasized that bolstering the core tier one capital of state-owned banks will not only improve their operational stability but also enhance their credit issuance capacity, thereby supporting macroeconomic recovery and boosting market confidence [6].

Revenue Insights - In the first two months of 2025, national public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue growth slowed significantly from 94% in December to 11%[3] - Individual income tax saw a substantial increase of 27% year-on-year, influenced by a low base effect from 2024[3] Expenditure Analysis - Public fiscal expenditure reached 45,096 billion yuan in January-February 2025, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth[4] - Expenditure in the first two months accounted for approximately 15.2% of the annual target, slightly lower than 2024 but higher than the average of the past three years[4] - Social welfare and technology expenditures grew at a faster pace, with education and social security spending increasing by 8% and 7% respectively[4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The annual budget draft anticipates a 3.7% growth in tax revenue for 2025, although the first two months did not meet this target[4] - The government aims to reduce reliance on non-tax revenue, indicating a shift in fiscal strategy[4] - Special bond issuance has accelerated, with 9,148 billion yuan issued by March 24, 2025, representing about 20% of the annual target[5] Market Implications - The decline in land transfer revenue, down 16% year-on-year, suggests ongoing challenges in the real estate market despite previous improvements[5] - The focus of fiscal spending is shifting towards "benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption," indicating a strategic pivot in government priorities[5] - Risks include potential economic downturns and the possibility of policy execution falling short of expectations[5]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure data for January-February 2025 indicates a need for increased fiscal support through financing, as both revenue and expenditure growth rates are slowing down compared to previous years [2][8][13]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [7]. - The national general public budget expenditure was 45,096 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [7]. - The broad fiscal revenue decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, while the budget completion rate was 17.8%, higher than the five-year average of 17.5% [4][8]. Group 2: Fiscal Support and Debt Issuance - The broad fiscal expenditure growth was 2.9% year-on-year, with a budget completion rate of 13.4%, consistent with the five-year average [5][21]. - New general bonds and carryover funds provided effective support for early fiscal expenditures, with a fiscal revenue shortfall of 0.6 trillion yuan, higher than the average of 0.1 trillion yuan from 2020-2024 [10][11]. - The issuance of new local bonds and special refinancing bonds reached nearly 1.8 trillion yuan in January-February 2025, with special refinancing bonds issued at a faster pace [11][13]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Expenditure Trends - Expenditure in science and technology, education, and social security showed relatively high growth rates of 10.6%, 7.7%, and 6.7% respectively [23]. - Government fund expenditure grew by 1.2% year-on-year, significantly slowing down due to a 15.7% decrease in land transfer income [28]. - The budget completion rate for government fund expenditure was 9.1%, lower than the five-year average of 9.7% [28].

Economic Goals and Policy Adjustments - The economic target for this year is set at 5.0%, which is crucial under external tariff pressures[1] - The deficit ratio has been raised to 4.0%, indicating a need for increased policy support to meet the economic target[1] - Special bonds amounting to 4.4 trillion and 1.3 trillion in ultra-long special bonds are planned, with 500 billion allocated to supplement bank capital[3] Inflation and Supply Dynamics - The inflation target has been adjusted down to 2.0%, aligning more closely with realistic expectations rather than aiming for an increase[1] - Any potential upward movement in domestic commodities is likely to depend on supply-side factors, as confirmed by policy directions[3] Policy Implementation and Market Response - The past two years show a pattern of policy implementation: strong start in Q1, slowdown in Q2 and Q3, followed by acceleration in Q4[2] - The focus for the second quarter will be on whether the response is driven by reality or expectation management, particularly in light of tariff pressures[2] Long-term Development Focus - The emphasis remains on high-quality development, with the 2025 strategy confirming this direction despite current economic challenges[3] - The overall leverage strategy indicates a central government expansion while local governments are expected to reduce leverage, maintaining a stable leverage environment[3]

Group 1 - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for this year, with an emphasis on boosting domestic economic performance through increased fiscal spending and support for the real estate market and emerging industries [1][2] - The fiscal deficit is planned at approximately 4% of GDP, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year [1] - The logistics industry in China showed a slight decline in the logistics prosperity index to 49.3% in February, indicating a contraction, while new orders index remained in expansion at 50.6% [5][6] Group 2 - Germany plans to establish a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund to invest in transportation, energy networks, and housing, aiming to stimulate economic growth amid recent challenges [3][4] - The establishment of this fund marks a significant shift in Germany's fiscal policy, potentially creating jobs and enhancing economic independence within Europe [4] - TSMC announced an additional investment of at least 100 billion USD in the U.S. to build advanced chip manufacturing facilities, which is expected to create 40,000 construction jobs [8][9] Group 3 - Li Ka-shing's company plans to sell its global port business, including a 90% stake in the Panama port company, for a total enterprise value of 22.8 billion USD, which is expected to generate over 19 billion USD in cash [12][13] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in February reached 2.84 million, a significant increase of 120% compared to the same month last year, reflecting heightened interest in the stock market [14][15] - The A-share market experienced a "rise and fall" pattern in February, with major indices generally rising despite a late-month decline due to external market pressures [16][17]

无论内心的感觉也好，还是分析体系给你的支撑也好，亦或是受外界情绪的影响也罢，人总是先入为主地有一定的预判，这就让人们总爱做左侧。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250305— 政策要 能早则早、宁早勿晚（+政府工作报告未超预期+资金面均衡宽松-股市小幅上涨=微下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展3532亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有5487亿元逆回购到期。净回笼1955亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格较昨日变化不大，DR007在1.77%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 03.05) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成义重 (17. | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | 元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.76 | | | 2. 53 | -8 | 48364. 26 | 271. 32 | 8 ...

Economic Goals and Policy Adjustments - The economic target for this year is set at 5.0%, which is crucial under external tariff pressures[1] - The deficit ratio has been raised to 4.0%, indicating a need for increased policy support to meet the economic target[1] - Special bonds amounting to 4.4 trillion and 1.3 trillion in ultra-long special bonds are planned, with 500 billion allocated to supplement bank capital[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Dynamics - The issuance of local special bonds is expected to be 3.6 trillion, lower than last year's 3.9 trillion, reflecting a central government expansion and local government contraction in leverage[3] - The focus for the upcoming quarters will be on the pace of policy implementation, with a pattern of strong Q1 performance followed by a slowdown in Q2 and acceleration in Q4 observed over the past two years[2] - The inflation target has been adjusted down to 2.0%, aligning more closely with realistic expectations rather than aiming for aggressive increases[1] Supply-Side Dependence - The upward trend in domestic commodities is primarily reliant on supply-side factors, which have received policy confirmation[1] - The core of the policy analysis indicates a continued focus on high-quality development through 2025, with the current measures reflecting last year's political meeting's spirit[3] - Without comprehensive leverage increases, domestic demand may not significantly drive prices, maintaining a supply-side logic path[3]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth, with a target GDP growth rate of around 5% for 2025, reflecting the need for employment stability, risk prevention, and improving people's livelihoods [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Summary - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan [1][3]. - The issuance of special bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, aimed at supporting state-owned commercial banks and local government projects [1][4]. - The total new government debt for the year is projected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending intensity [1][5]. Monetary Policy Summary - A moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented, with measures such as timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure ample liquidity [2][4]. - The focus will be on optimizing structural monetary policy tools to promote healthy development in the real estate and stock markets, as well as supporting technological innovation and green development [2][6]. Special Bonds and Local Government Debt - The increase in local special bonds is expected to enhance their role in stabilizing growth, addressing shortfalls, and promoting recovery in the real estate market [5][6]. - Special bonds will be directed towards municipal construction, new energy, and new infrastructure, with a portion allocated for replacing hidden debts, thereby reducing local debt risks [5][6]. Long-term Special Bonds - The scale of long-term special bonds will be expanded to 1.3 trillion yuan, with a significant portion aimed at boosting consumption and supporting high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of equipment [3][6]. - Issuing special bonds to supplement commercial bank capital is expected to lower risks for banks and enhance their ability to support the real economy through interest rate cuts [6].