贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 摘要 一般财政收入有所修复，推动广义财政收入回暖。 3月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，较2月同比提升1.2个百 分点；其中，政府性基金收入同比-11.7%，一般财政收入同比0.3%。从预算完成度看，3月广义财政收入 预算完成6.8%，略高于2024年同期及过去五年平均的6.6%；一季度广义财政收入预算完成24.6%，高于 过去五年平均24.1%。 一般财政、政府性基金支出均加快，推动广义财政支出明显提速。 3月广义财政支出同比10.1%，较2月 增速提升7.2个百分点；一般财政支出同比5.7%，政府性基金支出同比27.9%。从预算完成度看3月广义财 政支出预算完成8.6%，略低于过去五年平均支出进度8.8%。一季度广义财政支出预算完成21.9%，略高 于过去五年平均21.8%。 风险提示 事件： 4月18日，财政部公布2025年一季度财政收支情况。一季度，全国一般公共预算收入60189亿元， 同比下降1.1%；全国一般公共预算支出72815亿元，同比增长4.2%。 点评：财政"续力"正当时，储备政策推出节奏值得重点关注 广义财政收支增速均 ...

最新LPR报价出炉 专家普遍认为二季度将是货币政策施策窗口期 金十数据4月21日讯，今日，新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉，1年期LPR为3.1%，5年期以上 LPR为3.6%，两个品种报价继续保持不变。目前，LPR已连续6个月"按兵不动"。从经济基本面看，一 季度我国经济运行实现良好开局，且当前社会融资成本已处于历史低位，短期内降低政策利率、引导 LPR下降的紧迫性不强。受外部环境扰动，近期人民币汇率承压，美联储放缓降息节奏也导致中美利差 压力增大，进一步制约降息。当前，商业银行净息差水平整体偏低，报价行缺乏调整LPR加点的意愿。 4月以来，多家银行已密集下调存款利率，缓解银行负债端成本。 当前，外部环境更趋复杂严峻，国内 结构转型任务仍然较为繁重。随着财政部公布两类特别国债发行安排，释放在二季度保持较强支出力度 的信号，市场专家普遍认为二季度将是货币政策施策窗口期。 （券商中国） 跟踪国债市场动态 +订阅 ...

4月21日，人民银行（下称"央行"）授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）。 其中，1年期LPR为3.1%，5年期以上LPR为3.6%，两个品种报价继续保持不变。目前，LPR已连续6个月"按 兵不动"。 LPR是贷款利率定价的主要参考基准。作为LPR定价基础的央行政策利率未做调整，LPR也缺乏调整动力。从 经济基本面看，一季度我国经济运行实现良好开局，且当前社会融资成本已处于历史低位，短期内降低政策利 率、引导LPR下降的紧迫性不强。受外部环境扰动，近期人民币汇率承压，美联储放缓降息节奏也导致中美利 差压力增大，进一步制约降息。 LPR报价加点由报价行共同决定。当前，商业银行净息差水平整体偏低，报价行缺乏调整LPR加点的意愿。4 月以来，多家银行已密集下调存款利率，缓解银行负债端成本。 当前，外部环境更趋复杂严峻，国内结构转型任务仍然较为繁重。随着财政部公布两类特别国债发行安排，释 放在二季度保持较强支出力度的信号，市场专家普遍认为二季度将是货币政策施策窗口期。 4月18日召开的国务院常务会议明确指出，要"加大逆周期调节力度"，"持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展"。 东方金诚首席宏观分析 ...

今年更大规模的政府债券在一季度提速发行后，新增地方政府专项债券(以下简称"专项债券")和国债仍 留有较大规模的待发行额度。根据财政部最新安排，2025年首期超长期特别国债和中央金融机构注资特 别国债(以下合称"两类特别国债")都将在4月24日招标发行。面对国内外形势的新变化，受访专家认 为，两类特别国债"开闸"后，政府债券将继续保持较大供给力度，在二季度进一步加快发行速度。 仍有较大可用额度 今年一季度，以国债、地方政府债券为主的政府债券发行规模明显高于近5年同期水平。据证券时报记 者统计，一季度国债累计发行规模超3.3万亿元，地方政府债券累计发行规模超2.8万亿元。 "今年中央财政靠前发力，可能为后续超长期特别国债和支持银行补充资本金的特别国债发行腾挪空 间。"华西证券（002926）首席经济学家刘郁指出，一季度国债发行进度快于往年同期，但在中央加杠 杆背景下，国债剩余额度仍高于去年同期。 从地方政府债券发行情况看，年初以来地方化债工作进展积极。用于置换存量隐性债务的置换债券在一 季度集中发行，累积发行规模达1.34万亿元，约占当季地方政府债券发行规模的47%。 东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳对证券时报记者 ...

3月，人民币贷款增加3.64万亿元，同比多增5470亿元。分部门看，住户部门新增人民币贷款表现 不俗，以房贷为主的居民中长期贷款当月新增超5000亿元，处于2024年初以来较高水平，主要与重点城 市房地产市场迎来"小阳春"有关。同时，消费贷款增势向好，也对近期贷款增长有支撑作用。 数据显示，3月末，M2同比增长7%，与上月持平；M1同比增长1.6%，比上月末高1.5个百分点。3 月社融规模增量为5.89万亿元，处于历史同期高位水平。分析人士表示，社会融资规模的"大头"，通常 是贷款和政府债券。近期，财政部明确将发行首批5000亿元特别国债支持国有大型银行补充核心一级资 本，预计未来可撬动4万亿元信贷增量。 企业有效信贷需求回暖也是3月贷款的重要支撑因素。数据显示，3月制造业和服务业生产经营景气 程度都有提升。 贷款利率依旧保持在历史低位水平。3月企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约3.30%，比上 年同期低约45个基点；个人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约3.10%，比上年同期低约60个基 点。 广州日报讯 （全媒体记者林晓丽）3月新增信贷社融水平超市场预期。4月13日，人民银行发布的 一季度金融数据 ...

来源：财政部网站 财政部积极支持国有大型商业银行补充核心一级资本。 财政部表示，按照党中央和国务院决策部署，2025年，财政部将发行首批特别国债5000亿元，积极支持中国银行、中国建设银行、交通银行、中国邮政储蓄 银行补充核心一级资本。此次资本补充工作将按照市场化、法治化原则稳妥推进。 当前，国有大型商业银行经营发展稳健，资产质量稳定，拨备计提充足，主要监管指标均处于"健康区间"。通过发行特别国债支持相关国有大型商业银行补 充核心一级资本，有利于进一步巩固提升银行的稳健经营能力，促进银行高质量发展，为投资者创造更大价值和带来长期稳定的回报，有利于银行更好发挥 服务实体经济的主力军作用，为国民经济行稳致远提供有力支撑。 责编：李丹 校对： 冉燕青 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 特朗普，突发！震动全球金融市场 丨 刚刚 ...

冯毅浙商资产研究院总经理、浙江工商大学浙商资产管理学院副院长。浙江大学博士后，中央财经大学 博士，高级经济师，北京语言大学商学院硕导，浙江民革经济委员会委员。出版专著《股权结构与董事 会效率关系研究》,译著《灭火—美国金融危机及其教训》等。 2025年作为"十四五"规划的收官之年，我国经济发展面临复杂多变的国内外环境。在全球经济增速放 缓、外需不确定性增强的背景下，2025年《政府工作报告》明确将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全 方位扩大国内需求"列为首要任务，凸显了内需作为经济增长"稳定锚"的战略地位。这一决策不仅是应 对短期经济压力的主动选择，更是推动经济结构转型升级、构建新发展格局的长期考量。如何将内需潜 力转化为经济高质量发展的持续动力？浙商资产研究院总经理、浙江工商大学浙商资产管理学院副院长 冯毅对《金融时报》记者表示，应加强政策评估、创新金融工具，并引导社会预期，确保投资与消费的 有效协同。最终目标是形成投资拉动供给、消费反哺投资的良性循环，缩小区域经济差距，实现经济高 质量发展。 短期稳增长与长期调结构的辩证统一 《金融时报》记者：2025年《政府工作报告》首次将"全方位扩大内需"列为十大任务之 ...

Core Points - The Ministry of Finance has announced a capital injection of 500 billion yuan into four state-owned banks, including Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank, through the issuance of A-shares [1][3] - This capital injection is part of a broader plan to enhance the core Tier 1 capital of six major commercial banks, with the aim of improving their ability to serve the real economy and withstand risks [4][5] - The capital raised will be used entirely to supplement the banks' core Tier 1 capital, which is crucial for their operational stability and risk management [4][8] Summary by Category Capital Injection Details - The specific fundraising amounts for each bank are: Bank of China up to 165 billion yuan, China Construction Bank up to 105 billion yuan, Bank of Communications up to 120 billion yuan, and Postal Savings Bank up to 130 billion yuan [3][4] - The total amount of 500 billion yuan is expected to leverage approximately 4 trillion yuan in credit growth, enhancing the banks' capacity to support the economy [1][11] Regulatory Context - The capital injection aligns with the government's strategic plan to bolster the capital base of state-owned banks, as indicated in the 2025 government work report [5][10] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios of these banks are currently above regulatory requirements, indicating a proactive approach to capital management rather than a reactive measure to financial distress [1][7] Market Implications - Analysts suggest that this capital injection is designed to provide banks with greater flexibility in credit allocation, particularly in supporting strategic emerging industries and green finance [5][10] - The differentiated approach to capital injection, termed "one bank, one policy," reflects a market-oriented and legal framework for enhancing the banks' capital structures [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Four major state-owned banks in China announced plans to raise capital through A-share issuance to supplement their core tier one capital, with total fundraising amounts reaching up to RMB 4,200 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Raising Announcements - The four banks involved are China Construction Bank (CCB), Bank of China (BOC), Bank of Communications (BoCom), and Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC), with respective fundraising targets of RMB 1,050 billion, 1,650 billion, 1,200 billion, and 1,300 billion [1][2]. - The issuance of special government bonds to support these capital increases is imminent, as indicated by the Ministry of Finance [1][2]. Group 2: Government Support and Policy - The government plans to issue RMB 5,000 billion in special bonds to support the capital replenishment of large state-owned commercial banks, as outlined in the government work report [2]. - The approach to increasing core tier one capital was first mentioned on September 24, 2024, as part of a broader set of incremental policies [2]. Group 3: Capital Adequacy Ratios - As of the end of 2024, the core tier one capital adequacy ratios of five major state-owned banks showed varying degrees of improvement compared to mid-2024, with CCB achieving the highest increase of 0.47 percentage points, reaching 14.48% [3][4]. - The capital adequacy ratios for the six major banks are as follows: ICBC at 14.10%, ABC at 11.42%, BOC at 12.20%, CCB at 14.48%, BoCom at 10.24%, and PSBC at 9.28%, all exceeding the regulatory minimum requirements [4]. Group 4: Profit Growth and Loan Issuance - All six major state-owned banks reported positive net profit growth in 2024, with ABC showing the largest increase of 4.76%, reaching RMB 2,826.71 billion [4][5]. - The total new loans issued by the six major banks in 2024 amounted to approximately RMB 9.61 trillion, accounting for about 53.12% of the total industry loans [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Economic Support - The primary goal of increasing core tier one capital is to enhance the banks' ability to support the real economy, as the growth of risk-weighted assets is expected to outpace internal capital growth [6]. - The Ministry of Finance emphasized that bolstering the core tier one capital of state-owned banks will not only improve their operational stability but also enhance their credit issuance capacity, thereby supporting macroeconomic recovery and boosting market confidence [6].

Revenue Insights - In the first two months of 2025, national public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue growth slowed significantly from 94% in December to 11%[3] - Individual income tax saw a substantial increase of 27% year-on-year, influenced by a low base effect from 2024[3] Expenditure Analysis - Public fiscal expenditure reached 45,096 billion yuan in January-February 2025, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth[4] - Expenditure in the first two months accounted for approximately 15.2% of the annual target, slightly lower than 2024 but higher than the average of the past three years[4] - Social welfare and technology expenditures grew at a faster pace, with education and social security spending increasing by 8% and 7% respectively[4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The annual budget draft anticipates a 3.7% growth in tax revenue for 2025, although the first two months did not meet this target[4] - The government aims to reduce reliance on non-tax revenue, indicating a shift in fiscal strategy[4] - Special bond issuance has accelerated, with 9,148 billion yuan issued by March 24, 2025, representing about 20% of the annual target[5] Market Implications - The decline in land transfer revenue, down 16% year-on-year, suggests ongoing challenges in the real estate market despite previous improvements[5] - The focus of fiscal spending is shifting towards "benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption," indicating a strategic pivot in government priorities[5] - Risks include potential economic downturns and the possibility of policy execution falling short of expectations[5]