张尧浠：美联储暗示年内2次降息、金价回踩支撑仍是看涨机会 上交易日周三(6月18日)：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，收复周二触底回升幅度，但走势仍运行在中轨上方，且下方还有众多均线支撑，以及看涨趋势良好， 基本面也具降息前景，经济也偏向减缓，地缘局势长期不定等，故此，后市仍有再度走强的前景，下方各均线支撑位置，也是可入场看涨的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3390.09美元/盎司，日内整体依然还是处于20多美金的区间内连续震荡走盘，于午间先行录得日内高点3399.69美元，并于美 盘尾进一步回落录得日内低点3362.53美元，最后有所止跌，收于3369.20美元，操作也是来回多空捡钱的行情，日振幅37.16美元，收跌21.49美元，跌幅 0.63%。 其美元指数，日图走势早盘虽遭遇中轨阻力，但近日回升动力转强，5-10日均线转为支撑，附图指标信号也维持看涨信号发展，短期有望继续走强，而会 对金价产生压力，另外周图也偏向筑底回升的倾向，也会利空金价； 不过，日图及周图仍处于200日及200周均线阻力下方，前景仍然偏弱，月图走势依然处于之前2年震荡区间的下方，布林带也开口向下，故此后市反弹空 间有限，金价也将在震荡调 ...

Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel have increased demand for safe-haven assets, yet a strong US dollar has limited the price increase of gold [1][2] - Spot gold rose by 0.14% to $3389.49 per ounce, while spot silver surged to a 13-year high, increasing by 2.32% to $37.13 per ounce [1][2] Economic Indicators - May retail sales data showed a larger-than-expected decline of 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest drop in four months, indicating consumer caution amid trade uncertainties and tariff pressures [3] - Revenue from automobile and parts dealers fell by 3.5%, while gas station revenue decreased by 2.0%, and service sector indicators also showed a downturn [3] - Core retail sales increased by 0.4%, suggesting that consumer spending is still supported by robust wages, but overall economic slowdown signals cannot be ignored [3] Market Analysis - Michael Pearce, Deputy Chief Economist at Oxford Economics, noted that tariffs have distorted the timing of commodity purchases, and the risk of economic slowdown is increasing in the second half of the year [3] - Typically, economic uncertainty benefits gold prices; however, the strong performance of the dollar has constrained the potential for gold price increases [3]

Core Insights - Travel spending in the U.S. is declining, indicating potential early warning signs of an economic slowdown [1][3][4] - Consumer confidence has sharply decreased since the beginning of the year, leading to reduced travel expenditures across all income groups [1][3] - The airline industry is experiencing significant declines in ticket sales, particularly in the economy class, due to economic uncertainty [3][4] Group 1: Travel Spending Trends - U.S. airline travel spending fell by 11% year-on-year in May [3] - Accommodation spending decreased by approximately 2.5% year-on-year, while airline spending dropped by 6% [3] - Low-income groups have shown a notable contraction in travel spending, with significant reductions in ticket purchases following the announcement of tariffs [3][4] Group 2: Airline Industry Impact - Major U.S. airlines have seen stock declines, with American Airlines and JetBlue down over 40% [4] - Airlines have withdrawn their full-year earnings forecasts for 2025 due to economic uncertainties [4] - The current environment is expected to challenge key hotel industry metrics such as occupancy rates and average daily rates [4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - The trend of cautious spending has extended to high-income groups, with a 7 percentage point drop in ticket spending growth for those earning over $150,000 [3] - The International Air Transport Association reported a 26.2% year-on-year drop in revenue passenger kilometers for North America, significantly higher than the global average decline of 4.2% [3] - Economic analysts suggest that current consumer fatigue may indicate future declines in booking volumes [4] Group 4: International Travel and Perception - A report predicts a 9% decrease in international visitors to the U.S. this year, with a projected reduction of $8.5 billion in spending [6] - Negative perceptions of U.S. trade and immigration policies are impacting potential tourists' decisions [6] - American tourists are also reducing long-haul travel plans, with a 7% decrease in those planning to visit Europe this summer [6] Group 5: Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that tariff increases will significantly lower U.S. economic growth rates in 2025 [7] - Rising tariffs are expected to suppress consumer purchasing power and stock market performance [7] - The depletion of pandemic-era savings and rising delinquency rates on loans indicate potential challenges for consumer spending [7]

最后说说黄金，现货黄金涨超0.9%，一度逼近3400美元。在贸易摩擦和地缘政治风险加剧的情况下，黄金的避险属性再次凸显。机构预测，2025年黄金 价格可能在3000-3300美元之间波动，长期来看还是有上涨空间的。 再看看波音，真是屋漏偏逢连夜雨。印度航空的波音787空难事件，让波音股价大跌近5%。这不仅是短期的股价波动，更可能影响到波音未来的订单和声 誉。毕竟，航空安全是头等大事，消费者和航空公司的信任一旦受损，可不是那么容易恢复的。 中概股这边，整体表现有点分化。纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌了0.41%，但房多多和金山云却逆势上涨。小鹏汽车、蔚来这些新能源车企跌幅较大，可能和 市场对国内新能源汽车竞争加剧的担忧有关。不过，长期来看，中国的科技和新能源行业还是很有潜力的，像高瓴这样的机构最近都在加仓中概股，说 明他们对这些行业的未来还是很有信心的。 美元指数昨天跌了0.72%，这和特朗普威胁要对贸易伙伴加征关税有关。关税政策不仅影响贸易，还会影响市场对美元资产的信心。不过，离岸人民币倒 是涨了251点，这说明国际市场对人民币的信心在增强，也反映出中国经济的韧性。 国债市场昨天表现不错，尤其是长期国债。这可能是因为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities analysts, led by Kyohei Morita, believe that Japan's economy is unlikely to fall into recession despite potential economic slowdowns caused by U.S. tariffs [1] Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is primarily driven by the service sector, which is expected to benefit from new stimulus measures through supplementary budgets [1] - Corporate investments in software and efforts to address labor shortages are anticipated to support Japan's economic growth [1] Risks and Challenges - The analysts caution that tariffs may exert "downward pressure" on Japan's economy from July to September [1] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to begin raising interest rates in January 2026, as indicated by the central bank's governor, Kazuo Ueda, who emphasized readiness to continue rate hikes if the underlying inflation rate approaches the 2% target [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main contradiction in the US economy for the second half of the year revolves around tariff data, with a short-term focus on the direction of inflation [2]. Tariff Status and Economic Effects - After the May 12 US-China agreement, global trade uncertainty has decreased but remains at historically high levels, with the average US import tariff rate around 16% and China's rate at 27%. The suspension periods for US tariffs on China will end on July 9 and August 12 [2]. - The sectors with the highest US import tariffs as of the end of May include clothing and metals, with slow progress in tariff negotiations with other economies [2]. - The economic effects of tariffs on inflation and growth are expected to manifest over time. A surge in US container bookings indicates a new round of "import grabbing," but this may be hindered by inventory accumulation and weakening domestic demand as tariff suspensions approach [2]. - Tariffs have already begun to exert upward pressure on US inflation, although the effect is not yet significant. A potential inflationary period may occur in Q3 and Q4 [2]. - Indicators such as manufacturing PMI, capital expenditure willingness, and real estate sales suggest weaker private investment, while consumer purchasing intentions have declined despite a temporary boost in household income [2]. - Employment data, including unemployment claims, show signs of deterioration, raising concerns about rising unemployment rates [2]. Dynamic Economic Impact - The impact of tariffs on the economy may shift from "stagflation" to "slowdown," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve. In the next 1-2 quarters, the market may grapple with issues of stagnation versus inflation and whether to expect a slowdown or recession [3]. - By Q4 of this year, if the rate of price increases slows while economic downturns persist, the main contradictions in economic fundamentals, asset classes, and policies may transition from "stagflation" to "slowdown," with the possibility of "recession panic" [3]. Global Trade Predictions - The United Nations has revised its predictions for global trade growth rates, with a forecast of 1.5% growth in trade volume for Q2 2025, driven primarily by industrial production data [4][5]. Sector-Specific Tariff Data - As of May 2025, the highest effective import tariff rates in the US are in the textile and clothing manufacturing sectors, reaching 52.8% and 52.6%, respectively. In contrast, sectors like oil, coal, and chemicals have significantly lower tariff rates [6]. Retail Price Trends - Since March, US retail prices have increased significantly, reflecting retailers' proactive price hikes following tariff impositions. However, prices for goods from Mexico have been declining since April, indicating expectations surrounding tariff negotiations [11][12]. - A survey by the Richmond Fed indicated that 72% of surveyed companies have taken action in response to tariffs, with a majority planning to raise prices [14][15]. Investment Implications - The impact of tariffs on US investment is expected to be more pronounced than on consumer spending, as the proportion of private investment reliant on imports is significantly higher (38%) compared to consumer spending (9%) [16].

周五(6月6日)亚市盘中，现货黄金上涨，目前交投于3370.50美元/盎司，涨幅0.53%。市场焦点正转向今 晚即将公布的美国非农就业报告。预计5月失业率将稳定在4.2%，新增就业岗位13万个，低于4月的17.7 万个，但仍高于健康劳动力市场的10万岗位门槛。 【要闻速递】 尽管特朗普呼吁降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔至今仍选择按兵不动，在关税波动盛行的情况下等待进一步 的数据来指导政策决定。 得益于特朗普强硬贸易立场的软化和乐观的企业财报，美国股市在5月份大幅反弹，标普500指数和纳斯 达克指数创下2023年11月以来的最大单月百分比涨幅。 【黄金技术面分析】 周四金价冲高后回落，最终以阴线收盘，并且向下跌破了5日均线。当前日内重点需关注10日均线的位 置，该均线目前位于3333附近，而这里也是周二的低点位置。若金价向下破位10日均线，需提防行情延 续下跌的可能﹔若金价能维持在10日均线之上，则可保持震荡的思路对待。今日方面来说，非农数据才 是今天的关键。 周三弱于预期的美国民间就业和服务业数据引发了市场对贸易不确定性导致经济放缓的担忧，投资者将 注意力集中在周五的非农就业报告上。 周四的初请失业金数据显示，上周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, indicates that unconventional indicators suggest the economy may be starting to slow down, while long-term inflation expectations remain stable [1] Group 1 - Unconventional indicators are signaling a potential economic slowdown [1] - Long-term inflation expectations are perceived to be stable despite the economic signals [1]

Economic Activity - The latest Beige Book indicates a general slowdown in economic activity across the U.S. since the last report, with half of the regions reporting slight to moderate declines [1][4] - Labor market conditions show a cooling trend, with most regions reporting decreased labor demand, reduced hours, hiring freezes, and plans for layoffs [1][3] Labor Market - Overall employment levels have remained stable, but there is evidence of a shift in labor supply and demand dynamics, with increased job applicants and reduced employee turnover [1][3] - Wage growth continues at a moderate pace, with easing wage pressures, which is a positive sign for alleviating service sector inflation [2][3] Price and Cost Pressures - Prices have risen at a moderate pace, but there are expectations for faster increases in costs and prices in the future, primarily due to higher tariffs [2][4] - Businesses are adopting various strategies to cope with rising costs, including raising prices, compressing profit margins, or adding temporary surcharges [2][3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing reports a general decline in activity, with reduced new orders and increased inventories, influenced by uncertainty and tariffs [3][4] - Consumer spending shows mixed performance, particularly weak in non-essential goods, with some consumers making preemptive purchases to avoid future tariffs [3][4] - The real estate sector is experiencing stagnation or decline in residential sales and new construction, with increased inventory and slowing price growth [3][4] Financial Services - Loan demand is generally stable or weakening, with uncertainty suppressing trading activity, while credit standards remain stable or slightly relaxed [3][4] Market Implications - The economic slowdown and corporate profit pressures may pose downside risks for the stock market, while a cooling labor market could signal potential easing [5][6] - In the bond market, the economic slowdown may support lower bond yields, but inflation concerns from tariffs could limit this downward movement [5][6] - Commodity demand may be suppressed due to economic activity slowdown, but supply chain adjustments and trade policy changes could lead to structural impacts [7][8] Uncertainty and Future Outlook - The overarching theme of uncertainty, particularly related to trade policy, is a significant barrier to economic vitality, affecting both corporate decision-making and consumer sentiment [4][8] - The future economic trajectory will largely depend on how these uncertainties evolve and the impact of trade policies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The ISM reported a decline in the US non-manufacturing PMI to 49.9, marking the lowest level since June 2024, indicating a contraction in the service sector [1][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The new orders index plummeted by 5.9 points to 46.4, the largest drop in nearly a year [3] - The business activity index fell by 3.7 points to 50, the lowest in five years [3] - The payment prices index surged to 68.7, the highest since November 2022 [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The accommodation and food services sector was one of the few growth highlights, while eight other service sectors, including retail, construction, and transportation, experienced contraction [3] - Backlogs of orders decreased to the lowest level since August 2023 [3] Group 3: Employment and Supply Chain - The employment index increased by 1.7 points to 50.7, indicating nearly stagnant hiring [3][6] - The supplier delivery index rose, suggesting longer delivery times as companies adjust their supply chains [5] Group 4: Trade and Policy Impact - Both the export and import indices showed contraction, reflecting the impact of fluctuating trade policies from the Trump administration [4]