记者丨 庞华玮 编辑丨张星 "9·24行情"满一周年，这一年，A股市场一扫阴霾，赚钱效应显著。 值得一提的是， 这是一场以科技创新和高质量发展为核心的"结构牛"，它正深刻地改变着A股结构和投资版图。 近一年，作为科技和新经济代表的创业板指、科创50、北证50等三大指数的涨幅均超过100%，人形机器人、半导体、算力、创新药赛道等轮 动行情引爆结构性牛市。 创业板指近一年走势。 截至9月23日收盘，近一年上证指数累计上涨39%，沪深300上涨41%，北证50指数更是暴涨158%。 个股方面，全市场近3000只个股涨幅逾 50%，其中1400余只股价翻倍。 "三驾马车" 去年"9·24行情"至今刚好满一年的时间，过去一年，A股市场走出了两波大幅上涨的行情：第一波是"9·24新政"出台之后，市场出现快速上攻， 大盘在短短的几个交易日上涨逾千点，随后出现了一定的调整。 第二波行情是从今年六月底至今，这一波上攻超过了去年10月8日创出来的上证指数高点，A股形成了牛市的走势。 A股经过这两波大涨，指数全面开花，其中科技股含量重的指数表现尤为突出。 创业板指、科创50、北证50，这"三驾马车"作为新经济的代表，近一年（202 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is a "preventive" measure aimed at protecting employment rather than controlling inflation, which has not yet returned to the 2% target [1] - The interest rate cut is expected to stimulate growth in the U.S. economy and increase liquidity in the U.S. stock market, while also alleviating currency depreciation pressures on emerging economies [1] - For China, as an export-oriented country, the preventive interest rate cut is anticipated to boost external demand, creating opportunities for export enterprises [1] Group 2 - The conclusion drawn by the brokerage firm is that a true bull market in A-shares is still in the making and has not yet begun, with the current market being a structural bull market led by technology and growth sectors [1] - The overall economic recovery process is still ongoing, and the preventive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a measure that will change the global economic landscape, particularly benefiting export-driven economies like China [1] - Traditional industries, such as manufacturing, are expected to see a rebound in demand as corporate profits improve, leading to a potential turning point in the Producer Price Index (PPI) driven by external demand [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of technology stocks and bank stocks, highlighting that technology stocks have been rising while bank stocks have been declining, leading to losses for bank stock holders [1] - There is speculation about whether bank stocks have entered a technical bear market, with suggestions to sell bank stocks and invest in sectors like semiconductors, PCB, chips, and artificial intelligence [1] - The article mentions that institutional investors are unable to exit the technology sector, which may lead to pressure on bank stocks as funds shift towards technology investments [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of high technology for a country to become a global leader, arguing that reliance on traditional sectors like banking and infrastructure is insufficient [4] - It points out that the current bull market in technology stocks is structurally driven by the need for countries to compete in high-tech fields, especially in the context of US-China competition [4] - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of low-profit technology companies, particularly those that do not generate free cash flow, suggesting that they may not be able to maintain their valuations in the long term [5] Group 3 - The article draws parallels between the current situation of bank stocks and the past performance of sectors like healthcare, consumer goods, and liquor, questioning whether bank stocks will follow a similar downward trend [6] - It highlights the disappointing long-term returns of bank stocks, using Beijing Bank as an example, which has only seen a 26% increase over 15 years, suggesting that investing in bank stocks may not be as rewarding as other investment options [7] - There is a mention of bank-related funds shifting to popular sectors mid-year, with expectations that they will return to bank stocks by year-end, indicating a cyclical investment strategy [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is optimistic about the short - and medium - to long - term trends of the Hong Kong stock market, and continues to be bullish on the current structural market of Hong Kong stocks this year [9]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong structural bull market last week, with the Hang Seng Index rising 3.82% and trading volume remaining high. The external environment was stable, and there was strong capital support for market value. With the Fed likely to cut interest rates in September, the capital situation of Hong Kong stocks may improve further, and the mainland may introduce relevant loose and favorable policies, which will support the valuation of Hong Kong stocks in the medium - to long - term [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Investment View 3.1.1 Market Summary - The Hong Kong stock market rose rapidly last week, with the Hang Seng Index up 3.82% and trading volume at a high level. Leveraged short - selling ETF funds flowed in rapidly, and southbound mainland funds accelerated their net inflow into Hong Kong stocks, nearly doubling from the previous week [5]. 3.1.2 Market Environment - The external environment of the Hong Kong stock market was relatively stable, showing a strong structural bull market. Overseas markets, especially the US market, had positive sentiment due to inflation data increasing the expectation of a September interest - rate cut. In China, the CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. Southbound funds have continued to flow into Hong Kong stocks this year, and overseas funds have also increased their holdings. The liquidity supports the valuation, and the structural market driven by loose liquidity will continue in the fourth quarter [6][7][8]. 3.1.3 Outlook - Based on the market environment, the report is optimistic about the short - and medium - to long - term trends of Hong Kong stocks. The Hang Seng Index is in an upward channel, and the inflow of funds may increase after the Fed cuts interest rates. If there are stimulus measures and new performance growth points, the long - term market of Hong Kong stocks can be expected [9]. 3.1.4 Sector Allocation - In the near term, investors can focus on leading stocks in the Internet sector, domestic substitution concepts, the innovative drug industry, and sectors benefiting from the "anti - involution" policy. Long - term investors can allocate dividend sectors such as energy, communication, and public utilities. In derivatives trading, investors can sell option combinations to reduce holding costs [2][10]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Performance - Hong Kong stock index futures prices rose rapidly last week, with the September 2025 Hang Seng Index futures up 3.89% and the technology index futures up 5.18%. US stock index futures prices fluctuated, with the Dow Jones futures up 0.87%, the S&P 500 futures up 1.52%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.81%. The premium level of stock index futures continued to decline, indicating a drop in investor sentiment [1][11]. 3.2.2 Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market rose last week, with the Hang Seng Index up 3.82%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 2.86%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index up 5.31%. Most sectors rose, led by raw materials and technology, while the energy and medical sectors declined. Southbound funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK$60.82 billion, nearly doubling from the previous week. The US stock market also rose, and the risk appetite of the market increased significantly [13]. 3.3 Market External Environment Tracking 3.3.1 Domestic Main City Housing Sales Tracking - In the latest week, the sales of new and second - hand houses in first - tier cities increased year - on - year. The total sales volume of 30 cities decreased compared with the 12 - week average, with different trends in first, second, and third - tier cities [25][26]. 3.3.2 Central Bank's Latest Movements - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, and traders reduced their bets on its easing policy. US President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent called on the Fed to cut interest rates [27]. 3.3.3 Some Domestic and Overseas Important News - China's M2 and M1 growth rates were announced in August, with the M1 - M2 gap narrowing. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the PPI decline narrowed. In the US, the CPI in August was in line with expectations, and the PPI unexpectedly declined. The US non - farm employment was revised downwards [28]. 3.3.4 This Week's Focus - China will announce a series of August economic data, the US will release August retail sales data, and central banks such as the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decisions [29].

Group 1: Economic Trends - The manufacturing investment has maintained a relatively high growth rate, indicating positive changes in economic structure adjustment [1][2] - The current economic state is better described as economic development rather than just economic growth rate, with a focus on transitioning from real estate to manufacturing [2][3] - The August PMI data showed a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, but it has not fully returned to the expansion zone, highlighting the ongoing economic recovery [2] Group 2: Consumption and Investment - Consumption has consistently outperformed investment in recent years, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend due to government policies [2][3] - Real estate and infrastructure investments are relatively weak, while manufacturing investment continues to show strong growth, reflecting structural adjustments [2][3] - The external demand remains strong due to China's competitive export products, which are of good quality and reasonably priced [2] Group 3: Domestic Circulation and Consumer Behavior - Insufficient domestic demand is a significant challenge for economic operation, linked to consumer income and savings behavior [3] - The government has implemented measures to stimulate consumption, such as trade-in policies, and is shifting focus from green initiatives to smart consumption [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The current A-share market is characterized as a structural bull market driven primarily by liquidity rather than a broad market rally [6] - Information leverage has accelerated the rate at which investors enter the market, influenced by social interactions and media [6][7] - The phenomenon of retail investors re-engaging in the market indicates a potential shift in market dynamics as the bull market progresses [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is characterized by a structural bull market in the A-share market, driven primarily by liquidity rather than a broad market rally [3][9]. Economic Data and Trends - Manufacturing investment has maintained a relatively high growth rate, indicating positive changes in economic structure [2]. - The August PMI data showed a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, but it has not fully returned to the expansion zone, reflecting a focus on economic development rather than just growth rates [5]. - The shift from real estate to manufacturing is seen as a significant positive signal for economic growth [5]. Consumption and Investment Dynamics - Consumption has consistently outperformed investment, with government policies like the trade-in program playing a crucial role [5][7]. - There is a notable weakness in real estate and infrastructure investments, while manufacturing investment remains strong [5][7]. - External demand is robust due to China's competitive export products, which are of high quality and reasonably priced, even amidst trade tensions [5]. Domestic Circulation and Challenges - Insufficient domestic demand is a prominent challenge for economic operation, linked to consumer income and savings behavior [7]. - The phenomenon of excess savings may be attributed to a lack of attractive investment opportunities and declining income expectations among some residents [7]. New and Old Momentum Transition - The economy has been historically tied to real estate, but there are signs of innovation and technological breakthroughs in sectors like high-tech, which could drive future growth [8]. Market Characteristics - The current A-share market is identified as a structural bull market, primarily influenced by liquidity from professional investors and margin financing, rather than a significant influx of retail investors [9]. - The market is experiencing a slow but steady entry of long-term funds, such as insurance capital [9]. Information Leverage - The term "information leverage" refers to the accelerated rate at which market information spreads, influencing investor behavior and entry into the market [10][11]. - The phenomenon of retail investors re-engaging with the market during bullish phases is noted, with social media playing a significant role in information dissemination [10][11].

Economic Outlook - The manufacturing investment has maintained a relatively high growth rate in recent years, indicating positive changes in economic structure [1][2] - The current economic state is better described as economic development rather than just economic growth rate, with a focus on transitioning from real estate to manufacturing [2][3] Market Analysis - The A-share market is characterized as a structural bull market rather than a comprehensive bull market, primarily driven by liquidity [1][6] - There is a notable absence of large-scale movement of household savings into the stock market, with professional investors and margin financing being the main sources of liquidity [6][7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is closely related to income, with excess savings being a significant issue due to a lack of attractive investment opportunities and declining income expectations [3] - Government policies, such as trade-in programs, are aimed at stimulating consumption and guiding consumer behavior towards more positive changes [3] New Economic Drivers - The transition from old to new economic drivers is underway, with innovative companies emerging as a signal of potential in high-tech industries [4] - The market is witnessing a shift in focus from traditional industries to sectors that align with future economic development [4] Information Leverage - The concept of information leverage is highlighted, where the speed of information dissemination influences investor behavior and accelerates market entry [2][6][7] - The phenomenon of retail investors re-engaging in the market is observed, indicating a shift in market dynamics as information spreads rapidly through social networks [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "structural bull market" in the context of China's real estate and stock markets, highlighting that since 2016, the market has not experienced a comprehensive bull market, but rather a structural one where investment is concentrated in specific sectors [2][8] - The real estate market in China has shown a trend of increasing numbers of cities experiencing price declines, with the peak of the real estate cycle occurring in 2021 [2][8] - Shanghai's luxury real estate market is thriving, with high-end properties seeing significant price increases, contrasting with the overall downward trend in the national real estate market [8][9] Group 2 - The article compares the peak of China's real estate market in 2021 to Japan's in 1991, noting that while Tokyo's prices fell by over 50% by 1995, Shanghai's projected decline by 2025 is around 30% [8][10] - The demand for luxury properties in Shanghai is driven by factors such as urbanization, income disparity, and a lack of high-yield investment opportunities, leading to a concentration of wealth in major cities [11][15] - The article highlights that the high-end property market in Shanghai is characterized by significant price increases, with some luxury projects seeing price hikes of over 16% within a year [9][11] Group 3 - The stock market is experiencing a structural bull market, particularly in the technology sector, driven by optimism surrounding AI and related industries, with the ChiNext 50 index showing a significant increase [19][23] - The article notes that the current market environment is marked by low interest rates and a shift of funds from savings to equities, although overall economic growth remains a concern [21][27] - The disparity in investment preferences between A-shares and U.S. stocks is highlighted, with A-shares focusing more on smaller companies and storytelling rather than valuation metrics [30][32]

美股的头部集中效应显著。美股巨头（如苹果、微软、英伟达等）因其稳定的现金流、技术护城河和行业主导地位，长 期享受高于市场的估值，市场愿意为高增长的科技公司支付溢价。去年的涨幅中，美股"七巨头"贡献了近一半的涨幅。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的 准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇9月15日｜中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷近日发文称，A股这轮一开始以估值水平提升驱动(存款利率下行)为特征 的慢牛行情，已经转变为以高成长预期驱动为特征的结构性牛市。存在即合理，屡创历史新高的同样具有鲜明的结构性 牛市特征，如从2010年至今，头部的12.5%的美股上市公司贡献了几乎美股总市值的净增长，而剩余87.5%上市公司的市 值合计没有变化。 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - The term "structural" has gained popularity since 2016, particularly in the context of supply-side structural reforms, leading to a "structural bull market" where investment is concentrated in a few sectors, while others decline [1] - The Chinese real estate market peaked in 2021, with a noticeable increase in the number of cities experiencing price declines, contrasting with the previous trend of widespread price increases [1] - Shanghai's luxury real estate market remains robust, with high-end properties seeing significant price increases, such as the average price in Huangpu District rising nearly 30% over five years [2][3] Group 2: Comparison with Japan's Real Estate Market - China's real estate market peak in 2021 is compared to Japan's peak in 1991, with projections indicating that Shanghai's prices may only decline by about 30% by 2025, significantly less than Tokyo's 50% drop [2][4] - The historical trajectory of Tokyo's real estate prices post-bubble shows a long recovery period, with prices not surpassing their peak when adjusted for inflation [4][5] Group 3: Factors Driving Shanghai's Luxury Market - The ongoing urbanization process in China contrasts with population outflows in many smaller cities, leading to continued demand for luxury properties in major cities like Shanghai [7] - The income disparity in China is greater than in 1990s Japan, with high-income groups increasingly concentrated in first-tier cities, driving demand for luxury real estate [8] - The phenomenon of "asset scarcity" is noted, where low yields on traditional investments push wealthy individuals towards luxury real estate as a means of asset appreciation [11] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The overall real estate market in China is experiencing a downturn, with new housing sales declining by 4% in area and 6.5% in value from January to July [11][12] - The current economic environment is characterized by low investment returns, prompting wealthy individuals to seek alternative investment opportunities, including luxury real estate [11] Group 5: Stock Market Dynamics - The A-share market has shown signs of strength since April, with concerns about over-leverage being mitigated by a lower financing balance relative to market capitalization [15] - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, has seen significant growth, with the ChiNext 50 index experiencing a 30% increase in late August [20][21] - The structural bull market in technology stocks reflects a divergence from traditional economic cycles, driven by optimism about future growth and innovation [26][30]