日前，王乾在接受中国证券报记者采访时，分享了自己践行价值投资的本心与思路。基于长周期投资视 角，王乾始终坚持以合理的价格买入高质量资产，为组合提供足够的安全边际，致力于为基金持有人实 现长期绝对收益。王乾认为，当前部分顺周期及内需类资产已具备可观的隐含回报率，市场风格的再平 衡需要等待基本面的实质改善。 逆向策略与长期持股相结合 基于长周期的价值投资视角，在王乾眼中，投资本质上就是以合适价格买入好公司，优质资产是组合长 期超额收益的重要来源。 "高质量资产的评判标准有多个维度，从结果来看经常是具备较强竞争力的公司。由于所处行业不同， 竞争力的来源可能存在较大的差异，比如资源型行业更看重资源禀赋，竞争型行业更看重管理层能 力。"总之，具备较强竞争力的优质资产是王乾的优先选择。 尽管如此，王乾并不会盲目追随所谓的"好公司"。在他的体系中，买入资产的首要标准是安全边际，他 希望以合理的价格买到更好的公司，"当高质量资产出现估值泡沫时，我会选择耐心等待更好的介入时 机，并不会因为它是好公司而无视估值纪律"。 这样的原则同样体现在王乾践行的逆向策略中。"选择偏价值和逆向的投资策略有时候会比较孤独，但 逆向与长期持股相结 ...

逆向策略与长期持股相结合 基于长周期的价值投资视角，在王乾眼中，投资本质上就是以合适价格买入好公司，优质资产是组合长 期超额收益的重要来源。 "高质量资产的评判标准有多个维度，从结果来看经常是具备较强竞争力的公司。由于所处行业不同， 竞争力的来源可能存在较大的差异，比如资源型行业更看重资源禀赋，竞争型行业更看重管理层能 力。"总之，具备较强竞争力的优质资产是王乾的优先选择。 尽管如此，王乾并不会盲目追随所谓的"好公司"。在他的体系中，买入资产的首要标准是安全边际，他 希望以合理的价格买到更好的公司，"当高质量资产出现估值泡沫时，我会选择耐心等待更好的介入时 机，并不会因为它是好公司而无视估值纪律"。 ● 本报记者王鹤静 近期市场科技成长风格占优，但仍有一批坚守价值风格的主动权益基金经理稳步前行，永赢基金权益研 究部总经理、基金经理王乾就是其中的一位。十余年的卖方研究经历，为他打下了扎实的行业与公司研 究基础，也让他在面对风格轮转时更加坦然和从容。 日前，王乾在接受中国证券报记者采访时，分享了自己践行价值投资的本心与思路。基于长周期投资视 角，王乾始终坚持以合理的价格买入高质量资产，为组合提供足够的安全边际，致 ...

● 本报记者 王鹤静 近期市场科技成长风格占优，但仍有一批坚守价值风格的主动权益基金经理稳步前行，永赢基金权益研 究部总经理、基金经理王乾就是其中的一位。十余年的卖方研究经历，为他打下了扎实的行业与公司研 究基础，也让他在面对风格轮转时更加坦然和从容。 日前，王乾在接受中国证券报记者采访时，分享了自己践行价值投资的本心与思路。基于长周期投资视 角，王乾始终坚持以合理的价格买入高质量资产，为组合提供足够的安全边际，致力于为基金持有人实 现长期绝对收益。王乾认为，当前部分顺周期及内需类资产已具备可观的隐含回报率，市场风格的再平 衡需要等待基本面的实质改善。 逆向策略与长期持股相结合 注重安全边际且遵守估值纪律，王乾坦言，会给组合运行带来十分有效的帮助："买入资产时，相对低 的估值能够提供足够的性价比，增强组合的韧性；如果资产进入泡沫化阶段，我会根据估值纪律进行适 度止盈调整、降低仓位，对组合进行再平衡。" 看好顺周期及内需类资产 自2024年"9·24"行情以来，市场流动性得到了明显改善，赚钱效应明显提升，"活水"推动A股市场持续 回暖，居民财富持续转移为市场注入流动性。虽然流动性更多追逐的是科技类资产，但王乾提 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月11日 策略解读 贸易摩擦升级对 A 股有何影响 策略研究·策略解读 | 证券分析师： | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 王开 | | | | | | | 021-60933132 | | | | | | | wangkai8@guosen.com.cn | | | | | | | 执证编码：S0980521030001 | 事项： 受特朗普叫嚣所谓的"关税威胁"影响，10 月 10 日美股三大股指集体下挫，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一 交易日下跌 878.82 点，收于 45479.60 点，跌幅为 1.90%；标准普尔 500 种股票指数下跌 182.60 点，收于 6552.51 点，跌幅为 2.71%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 820.20 点，收于 22204.43 点，跌幅为 3.56%。美国大 型科技股和中概股全线下跌，短期受情绪冲击影响较大。在政策支持前景下，我们仍看好 A 股市场中期走 势，关注四季度风格再平衡，布局地产、券商、消费等价值型板块。 观点： 关税冲击后，A 股中期向好逻辑未变，Q4 风格向传统价 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The A-share market is currently driven by liquidity rather than economic fundamentals, similar to the early stages of the 2019 bull market [1][3] - The adjustment in the market is attributed to profit-taking and micro-structural deterioration, not a signal of the end of the bull market [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Liquidity and Market Performance**: The recent rise in the stock market is primarily influenced by liquidity and leverage, with a significant shift of household savings into the equity market [2][4] - **Foreign Capital Inflow**: There is a notable increase in foreign capital entering the A-share market, with data indicating a rapid inflow of active foreign investments [4][22] - **Long-term Market Outlook**: The likelihood of the bull market ending due to liquidity tightening is low, as expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have been largely priced in [5][23] - **Sector Focus**: Long-term themes include AI and economic inflation rebalancing, while short-term opportunities may arise from style rebalancing in sectors like consumer goods and innovative pharmaceuticals [7][24] Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Impact**: Recent domestic policies focus on anti-involution and consumer spending, with supply-side measures in the polysilicon industry and demand-side policies promoting consumer spending [8][9] - **Consumer Support Measures**: Specific government initiatives include subsidies for cultural and sports events, and plans for free preschool education, which are expected to stimulate consumption [9][10] - **Price Governance Innovations**: The new pricing law, which includes cost investigations, is expected to have a significant long-term impact on market dynamics [11] - **Technological Policy Developments**: New regulations aimed at attracting foreign tech talent and promoting AI development indicate a strategic focus on innovation [12] Investment Directions - **Investment Opportunities**: Recommended investment directions include hard currencies, gold, and resource assets, particularly industrial metals, as well as sectors with defensive attributes and low short-term valuations [24][30] - **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The influx of capital into the stock market may initially lead to a decline in real estate investments, but could eventually result in a rebound in property prices as the stock market stabilizes [28] Financial Sector Insights - **Brokerage Sector Performance**: The brokerage sector is expected to benefit significantly from increased market liquidity and the influx of household funds, with historical data suggesting potential for substantial gains [25][27] - **Market Activity Indicators**: Recent data shows a significant increase in trading volumes and new account openings, indicating heightened retail investor interest [25][27] Conclusion - The A-share market is poised for potential upward movement due to strong liquidity and foreign capital inflows, despite short-term volatility. Key sectors and investment themes are emerging, driven by both domestic policy support and global economic trends.

Macro Insights - The report suggests that the stock and bond markets are likely to gradually "decouple," with the market pricing in profit recovery and capital inflow expectations [1][7] - There is a reallocation logic in assets due to anticipated Fed rate cuts, leading to a weaker dollar cycle and global capital reallocation [1][7] - Short-term sentiment has not reached extreme levels, but there is a focus on style rebalancing driven by micro trading congestion, with narratives shifting towards consumption, non-ferrous metals, and innovative industries [1][8] Defense and Aerospace - The report on Xirui (2507.HK) indicates that the company is gradually expanding its production capacity and service network, with expected net profits of $170 million, $210 million, and $260 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 14.0, 11.2, and 9.2 [2][10] - The demand for private jets is increasing, driven by a growing high-net-worth population and improved flight infrastructure, benefiting leading companies like Xirui [9] Electronics - Shengke Communication (688702.SZ) is expected to achieve revenues of 1.353 billion, 1.776 billion, and 2.195 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.1%, 31.3%, and 23.6% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3][13] - The company is focusing on high-end switch chip products to meet the demands of large-scale data centers and cloud services [12] Computer Industry - Ruijun Power (301236.SZ) is projected to achieve revenues of 365 billion, 424 billion, and 493 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 3.84 billion, 5.18 billion, and 7.81 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [4][16] - The company is deepening its soft-hard integration strategy, with significant growth in revenue from computing products and smart electronics [15][17] Power Equipment - Guoxuan High-Tech (002074.SZ) reported a revenue of 19.394 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.48%, with net profits of 367 million yuan, up 35.22% [22][24] - The company is expanding its international presence and has successfully launched its first experimental line for solid-state batteries, enhancing its competitive edge [24] Automotive - Li Auto (02015.HK) achieved a revenue of 30.25 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, maintaining a stable gross margin of 20.1% [30][32] - The company is expanding its sales and service network, with plans to increase the number of supercharging stations significantly [31][32] - The report on Seris (601127.SH) indicates a revenue of 62.402 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net profit growth of 81.03%, driven by strong sales of its high-end models [38][39] Tire Manufacturing - Linglong Tire (601966.SH) reported a revenue of 11.812 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.80%, despite a decline in net profit [41][42] - The company is expanding its global footprint with a new production base in Brazil, aiming to enhance its international competitiveness [42][43]

Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market has recently experienced an upward trend despite weak economic data, driven by liquidity and risk premium factors[1] - The M1-M2 growth rate differential has widened, indicating that liquid funds are flowing into financial markets[1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the stabilization of the RMB are key macroeconomic narratives influencing market dynamics[1] Group 2: Fund Inflows - Public and private fund participation in the current market rally is higher compared to previous trends, with the margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan[2] - Equity fund issuance has rebounded, with 1.7 trillion yuan issued from June to August, a nearly 300% increase year-on-year[2] - The net inflow into ETFs has been modest, with a notable shift towards Hong Kong stocks[2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The A-share sentiment index reached 77.6 as of August 28, up 10.6 percentage points from August 22, indicating a recovery in market sentiment but not yet at extreme levels[3] - Structural overheating is observed in certain sectors, particularly TMT, suggesting potential opportunities for style rebalancing[3] Group 4: Economic Indicators - July economic data showed a decline in retail sales growth to 3.7%, with fixed asset investment and industrial output growth also slowing[1] - The decline in household deposits by 1.1 trillion yuan in July, alongside a 2.14 trillion yuan increase in non-bank deposits, suggests a significant shift of funds into financial markets[1] Group 5: Risks - Risks include potential economic downturns, the possibility of the Fed not cutting rates, and the slow pace of household deposit migration[3] - Overheating speculative sentiment in the market could lead to regulatory risks[3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the market is experiencing a style rebalancing, with large-cap value stocks showing better cost-performance compared to growth stocks [1] - The overall trading volume in the equity market remains stable, with an average daily turnover of approximately 15,497 billion [1] - Sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, building materials, and household appliances are performing well, while sectors like computers, media, and electronics are lagging [1] Group 2 - Domestic economic growth appears stable at the beginning of the year, with structural improvements noted, driven by policy measures and seasonal consumption patterns [2] - Industrial production growth exceeded expectations, while investment growth is recovering from low levels; however, consumption and real estate remain weak [2] - The overall economic vitality is acceptable, but there are concerns about insufficient domestic demand and potential pressures on exports in the second quarter [2] Group 3 - The greatest uncertainty in overseas markets stems from Trump's policy path, particularly regarding the potential for retaliatory tariffs [3] - Each stage of policy implementation in the U.S. could significantly impact dollar assets, leading to increased volatility in the short term [3] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration on April 2 [3] Group 4 - The market is currently in a downward trend, with previously strong sectors undergoing noticeable adjustments; defensive sectors like electricity, insurance, and dividend stocks are showing stronger resilience [4] - There is a potential for style rebalancing as the gap between large-cap and small-cap, as well as growth and value stocks, is narrowing [4] - Anticipated macroeconomic data for the first quarter may provide a boost to the market, especially if accompanied by policy support from the political bureau meeting at the end of April [4] Group 5 - Investment strategies should focus on defensive allocations while waiting for risk clearance in April to identify better investment opportunities [5]