新华社贝尔格莱德2月1日电综述｜美元走弱推升欧元欧洲经济复苏承压 多位欧洲央行政策制定者对欧元快速升值表达担忧。欧洲央行副行长路易斯·德金多斯指出，若汇率进 一步升高，政策操作将面临更大复杂性。法国央行行长弗朗索瓦·维勒鲁瓦·德加约表示，美元走软反映 出市场对美国经济政策信心下降，但欧元升值可能进一步压低物价增长，这在当前通胀水平已经低于欧 洲央行2%目标的情况下尤为不利。奥地利央行行长马丁·科赫尔认为，欧元升值可能迫使欧洲央行重新 评估货币政策立场，应对经济增长和价格稳定的双重压力。 欧洲央行货币政策正面临新的考验。意大利欧洲政策制定研究所分析认为，欧洲长期利率高于名义经济 增速，欧洲央行加快缩减资产负债表，而美联储缩表放缓，使美元相对宽松，从而推动资金流入欧元区 市场，加剧欧元升值。欧洲央行行长拉加德指出，由于欧元债券和股票市场规模有限，金融体系难以完 全吸收短期资金流入，进一步加大欧元升值压力。 欧元升值已对欧洲出口和经济增长产生实质性影响。欧盟统计局1月发布的报告数据显示，2025年11月 欧元区对世界其他国家和地区的出口额约为2402亿欧元，同比下降3.4%，贸易顺差从2024年11月的154 亿欧 ...

在特朗普看来，美元就像一个可以上下拉动的溜溜球。但在股票投资者眼中，这个玩具似乎已经坏了， 美元走弱正成为他们给股票估值时不得不面对的最新障碍。 这种权衡并不简单，因为美元下跌对美国股票市场而言并非绝对毒药。出口商更容易找到买家，跨国公 司也将受益于更强劲的海外收入。 来源：环球市场播报 但弊端同样存在。美国资产的吸引力下降，资金流入美国公司的速度放缓，部分资金转而流向国际市 场。美国制造商为海外生产的投入品支付的成本上升，可能"进口"通胀，推高国内销售的终端产品价 格。 特朗普坚称自己并不担心美元走势，无论其近期如何下滑。这一表态令外汇交易员感到不安，并最终促 使财政部长斯科特·贝森特重申华盛顿长期以来支持强美元的政策立场。美元周五创自5月以来最大涨 幅，但即便如此，其水平仍明显低于一年前，这对股票交易员而言影响不小。 "美元走弱对美国股票市场整体而言是净利空，"Northlight Asset Management首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli 表示。 他预计投资者将重新调整投资组合，增加对出口导向型美股的配置。这并非没有道理：自4月8日市场触 底以来，巴克莱一篮子受益于美元走弱的公司股价已飙 ...

Core Viewpoint - The defensive position of the US dollar is facing significant challenges as the current US government adopts a more laissez-faire stance on the dollar's exchange rate, leading to substantial fluctuations in the dollar index (DXY) which recently dropped 125 basis points to around 95.8, the lowest level since early 2022 [1][2] Group 1: Dollar and Market Dynamics - The recent policy direction has injected strong momentum into safe-haven assets, resulting in a nearly frenzied rise in gold and silver prices at the end of January [1][2] - The dollar's decline, combined with strategic accumulation by institutions like Tether, forms the underlying logic for the gold and silver bull market at the beginning of 2026 [4] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Trends - Gold prices have surged to $5,250 per ounce, while silver has reached $115 per ounce, underscoring the irreplaceable safe-haven attributes of precious metals in the current uncertain environment [4] - Tether significantly increased its gold holdings by approximately 27 tons in Q4 2025, raising its total reserves to about 104 tons, indicating a shift in demand driven by crypto asset giants [3] - The market for tokenized gold assets (XAUT) has surpassed $2.3 billion, while the market cap for the mainstream stablecoin USDT has exceeded $180 billion, altering the pricing dynamics of precious metals [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate range at 3.5% to 3.75% during the January meeting, aligning with market expectations, and is not expected to reopen the rate cut window until June, creating a "policy vacuum" that supports gold and silver prices [4] - Investors are advised to closely monitor future government statements regarding exchange rates and the anticipated interest rate cuts in June, as the volatility of precious metal assets is expected to remain high during the dollar's bottoming process [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jeff Gundlach, known as the "new bond king," emphasizes avoiding the U.S. market as a key investment strategy due to two main risks: high inflation and a weakening dollar [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Current U.S. annual inflation rate is around 3%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which could lead to a cumulative price increase of 56% over 15 years if maintained [1] - Concerns exist that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates prematurely due to political pressure, potentially exacerbating inflation [1] Group 2: Dollar Weakness - The dollar index has declined approximately 10% over the past year, indicating a loss of investor confidence in dollar-denominated assets [1] - Gundlach believes that a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve would not only indicate a weak dollar policy but also an inflationary policy [1] Group 3: Investment Directions - **Direction One: Non-U.S. Currency Denominated Overseas Stocks** - Gundlach recommends allocating 30% to 40% of investment portfolios to overseas stocks, particularly in emerging markets, while completely avoiding U.S. stocks [2] - Emerging market stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks, with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF rising 42% over the past year compared to a 15% increase in the S&P 500 [2] - **Direction Two: Short-Term Bonds** - Gundlach maintains a positive outlook on short-term bonds, believing that most risks in the public bond market have been absorbed by the private credit market [3] - He holds a bearish view on long-term bonds due to rising yields driven by high inflation and expanding U.S. fiscal deficits [3] - **Direction Three: Precious Metals and Commodities** - With the dollar losing its safe-haven status, Gundlach identifies gold, silver, and other precious metals as quality investment options, along with commodities [4] - Precious metals have seen significant price increases, with gold rising nearly 65% and silver soaring about 150% over the past year [5]

There is something significant going on in China. There are significant buyers of all the metals. They really started with gold last year.Gold got expensive, so they trickled over to everything. The bottom line, though, with copper is it's not a speculative metals industrial and China's number one source of demand. It's going up more because of issuances with the tariffs in the US and supply constraints.And I'm very concerned to copper, so I'm very concerned as long as the stock market gets going up, it's f ...

证券时报记者 许孝如 在避险情绪与资产重估浪潮的推动下，黄金正在成为全球资本市场最耀眼的资产之一，金价持续刷新纪录。1月29 日，黄金现货、期货价格双双站上5500美元/盎司关口。 国际金价上涨传导至终端消费市场，多家黄金珠宝品牌最新公布的境内足金饰品价格普遍突破1700元/克，创历史 新高。 当日，世界黄金协会发布的报告显示，2025年全球黄金总需求首次突破5000吨大关，创历史新高；全球黄金需求 总值飙升至5550亿美元，同比增长45%。 随着金价屡创新高，市场分歧正在加大。业内人士表示，短期内，情绪驱动下的波动或将放大；中长期而言，黄 金能否继续走高，仍取决于全球风险格局、货币政策走向以及投资需求的持续性。 黄金需求创纪录 1月29日，世界黄金协会发布的2025年全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，2025年全球黄金总需求达5002吨，创 下新高。从结构看，投资需求成为推动2025年全球黄金需求创纪录的核心力量。 报告显示，2025年全球黄金投资需求攀升至2175吨，首次站上2000吨以上的水平。其中，全球黄金ETF全年净增持 801吨，创下历史第二高年度增量。持续的地缘政治风险、全球经济不确定性以及主要 ...

Core Viewpoint - Prices are on the rise, driven by a weaker dollar and increasing expectations that the next Federal Reserve chair will implement monetary easing [1] Group 1 - The weaker dollar is contributing to the increase in prices [1] - There is a growing expectation regarding the next Federal Reserve chair's approach to monetary policy, specifically towards easing [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.30 points, indicating a positive market sentiment; however, over 3600 stocks declined while only about 1200 stocks rose, reflecting a "divergent" market trend [1][3] - The market is characterized by extreme polarization, where selecting the right sectors can lead to a bull market, while the wrong choices can result in a bear market [4][6] Sector Performance - The mining sector saw significant inflows, with precious metals like gold and silver experiencing substantial gains; gold prices recently surpassed $5200 per ounce, reaching a historical high [3][4] - The overall non-ferrous metal sector rose nearly 6%, while precious metals surged over 10%, with companies like China Gold hitting their fourth consecutive trading limit [3][4] - In contrast, technology stocks faced severe differentiation, with many high-flying stocks in AI and space photovoltaics seeing capital flight, while only a few semiconductor stocks remained resilient [3][9] Capital Flow Analysis - On January 28, major institutional funds experienced a net outflow of 35.475 billion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive day of outflows, primarily from the electric equipment, pharmaceutical, and electronics sectors [6] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metal sector attracted 10.7 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investment focus [6] - Northbound capital, often referred to as "smart money," recorded a net inflow of 12.5 billion yuan, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment between domestic and foreign investors [6] Market Sensitivity and Future Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to influence market dynamics, with investors closely monitoring any hints regarding future interest rate adjustments [6][7] - The first hour of trading post-meeting will be critical, with attention on trading volume and northbound capital movements as indicators of market sentiment [7] - The short-term support level for the Shanghai Composite Index is around 4130 points, with 4170 points serving as a psychological barrier; failure to maintain these levels could lead to further declines [7] Investment Strategy - In the current chaotic market environment, a cautious approach is recommended, avoiding impulsive trading based on market fluctuations [9] - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully, reducing exposure during rebounds and maintaining a level of patience to wait for more favorable opportunities [9]

Group 1 - The international spot gold price and April gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange both surpassed $5,500 per ounce, marking a historical high, with a market capitalization increase of over $3.5 trillion in the gold market [1][3] - Gold prices have risen more than $500 per ounce in the past 72 hours, with an overall increase of approximately 20% since the beginning of 2026 [1][3] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, geopolitical risks, trade and tariff worries, and rising inflation pressures are driving individual investors to increase their gold holdings [3] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the current rise in gold prices is not driven by technical buying but by structural changes in the market, with central bank demand providing strong support for price increases [3][4] - Global financial broker XS.com indicates that the rise in gold prices is due to increased market anxiety and a cautious attitude towards the global monetary and fiscal order [3] - Most institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting stability at $5,400 by the end of the year and Deutsche Bank forecasting a rise to $6,000 as the dollar weakens [4]

截至2026年1月29日 14:27，有色金属ETF(512400)一度涨超4%，现涨2.35%，盘中换手12.52%，成交 57.37亿元，市场交投活跃。跟踪指数中证申万有色金属指数成分股铜陵有色上涨10.06%，西部黄金上 涨10.01%，湖南黄金上涨10.01%，云南铜业，盛和资源等个股跟涨。 有色金属ETF(512400)，场外联接(A类：004432；C类：004433)。 2025年全年金价涨幅达67%，创近年新高，主要驱动力来自央行持续购金、美元走弱、关税与贸易风险 上升以及强劲的期权市场活动；其中，新兴市场央行正加速减持美债、增持黄金，波兰央行已批准150 吨黄金采购计划。展望2026年，世界黄金协会指出，尽管短期或受波动率上行影响出现宽幅调整，但中 长期黄金走势仍将由结构性因素主导，包括地缘冲突常态化、美联储政策独立性受质疑及全球货币体系 信任重构等核心逻辑未变。 1月29日午后，金、银、铜全线大涨，现货黄金强势逼近5600美元关口，再创新高。白银连续主力合约 日内触及涨停，沪铜主力合约突破11万元/吨，日内涨幅达8%，同样创历史新高。 有色金属ETF(512400)紧密跟踪中证申万有色金属 ...