关税打击美国出口，农作物贸易商安德森公司股价暴跌 金十数据5月7日讯，由于关税和美国港口费用的不确定性影响了贸易，对第一季度业绩造成压力，农作 物处理商安德森公司的股价跌至两年多来的最低水平。特朗普的关税威胁令进口商推迟购买美国谷物和 油籽，对这家总部位于俄亥俄州的公司造成了冲击。安德森首席执行官比尔·克鲁格周三在与投资者的 电话会议上表示，贸易的不确定性"扰乱了平常的粮食流动，对商品价值产生了负面影响"。"这导致除 了客户直接需求之外，销售活动受到限制。"安德森的股价在早盘交易中下跌了11%，跌至2022年10月 以来的最低水平。 ...

金十数据5月7日讯，凯投宏观的分析师Ankita Amajuri在给客户的一份报告中写道，由于贸易不确定性 和薪资增长放缓，欧元区消费者今年可能继续不愿打开钱包。周三公布的数据显示，欧元区3月份零售 贸易下降0.1%。与此同时，消费者信心下滑，这可能是华盛顿关税政策带来的经济不确定性蔓延的结 果。Amajuri说："展望未来，虽然较低的利率应该会提振今年的消费，但这将被实际收入增长放缓部分 抵消。" 凯投宏观：欧元区零售业将迎来低迷的一年 ...

周三，国际黄金市场在连续两日强势反弹后迎来回调，现货黄金亚盘时段下跌1%，失守3400美元/盎司关口，盘中最低触及3385美元，单日最大跌幅达 1.6%。此次回调终结了黄金自月初以来近6%的涨势，而此前支撑金价的主要动力——全球贸易不确定性引发的避险需求，正随着关键外交事件临近而显著 降温。 贸易谈判重启主导短期情绪，黄金避险溢价遭压缩 与贸易谈判形成鲜明对比的是，南亚次大陆的地缘紧张局势正持续发酵。巴基斯坦军方证实，其空军于本周早些时候击落五架印度战机，并俘虏部分印度士 兵，以回应印度此前发动的空袭行动。这一冲突升级通常被视为黄金的"天然利好"，但市场反应却相对克制。 ETO Markets地缘政治风险模型显示，当前黄金市场的避险需求中，约60%与贸易不确定性挂钩，而地缘冲突的权重已降至30%以下。分析认为，贸易谈判 的短期优先级高于局部冲突，导致黄金多头在两者间选择"优先离场"。不过，若南亚冲突进一步扩散，或可能成为金价反弹的"催化剂"。 技术面释放调整信号，黄金或面临阶段性整理 从技术面来看，黄金日线图已呈现明显的"超买修正"特征。RSI指标自70上方快速回落至58附近，MACD红柱持续缩短且快慢线接近 ...

金融研究 2025年5月7日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 6 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 1.13%，报收 3316.11 点；深成指 上涨 1.84%，报收 10082.34 点；创业板指上涨 1.97%，报收 1986.41 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.39%， 报收 1026.52 点。市场成交 13,644 亿元，较前日增加 1,714 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+3.65%)， 通信(+3.59%)，综合(+3.38%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.13%)，食品饮料(+0.35%)，美容护理(+0.43%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,959/70/379。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 196、60、-149、-107 亿元，分别变动+164、+99、-78、-184 亿元。 风险提示：美国双边政策不确定性、财政扩张进度不及预期。 市场表现：5 月 6 日，国债期货涨跌不一，其中 2 年期国债期货下跌 0.06%，报收 102.31 点，5 年 期国债期货下跌 0.04%，报收 1 ...

Core Insights - The S&P Global Australia Composite PMI decreased from 51.6 to 51 in April 2025, indicating a slight reduction in the growth rate of Australia's private sector output, which has been increasing for seven consecutive months [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The number of new export orders in Australia's private sector declined again in April, but the overall growth rate of new orders reached its highest level since May 2022 [1] - The average input costs in Australia's private sector grew at the fastest pace since September of the previous year, leading businesses to raise selling prices to the highest level in nine months [2] - The services sector's business activity index fell from 51.6 to 51, marking the 15th consecutive month above the 50-point threshold, indicating ongoing expansion [2] Group 2: Business Sentiment and Employment - Despite the increase in business activity, the optimism level among private enterprises remains low, falling to a five-month low and below historical averages [1][2] - The services sector experienced a significant increase in new business and backlog of work, with the fastest growth in nearly three years, suggesting a positive outlook for the coming months [2] - Companies are continuing to hire at a steady pace to manage increased workloads, although concerns over trade uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. tariff measures, have dampened business sentiment [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company did not provide specific financial data or key metrics for the first quarter of 2025, but indicated that there was significant volatility in order patterns and demand [8][29] - The management expressed concerns about the disconnect between orders and downstream demand, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors [8][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) market saw a significant drop in imports into the Americas, with a 60% decrease by the end of March 2025 compared to previous months [10] - The company noted that while MDI prices in China had stabilized and recovered by 10%, the overall market conditions remained uncertain [12][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The automotive industry experienced a low single-digit percentage drop in production, with some manufacturers slowing down production in Mexico [22] - The construction materials market also showed volatility, with a disconnect between the number of homes being built and sold [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capitalizing on short-term changes and volatility while aligning costs with long-term market realities [16] - Management emphasized the need for a clear and realistic industrial policy in Europe to encourage investment [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed uncertainty about the macroeconomic environment and the petrochemical industry, indicating that many companies might need to adjust their outlooks [7][8] - The management believes that the current supply and demand issues are largely driven by uncertainty and expects these conditions to resolve in the coming months [9] Other Important Information - The company announced the closure of its Boisbury facility in Canada for spray foam, consolidating operations in Arlington, Texas [35] - The management reiterated their commitment to maintaining the dividend, citing a strong balance sheet and confidence in future cash generation [58][59] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to the bullwhip effect and inventory levels? - Management acknowledged the bullwhip effect and noted that inventory levels are generally leaner than in previous years, with pronounced volume reductions in automotive and aerospace sectors [20][24] Question: What is the outlook for the spray foam business? - The spray foam business has seen a slowdown in both new home construction and remodeling, impacting demand [34] Question: How are pricing and margins in the MDI market? - Management indicated that while they are pushing for price increases, the lack of demand has made it challenging to implement these increases effectively [37][38] Question: What is the impact of planned turnarounds on EBITDA? - Management estimated a $15 million hit to EBITDA in the first half of the year due to planned turnarounds, with $5 million in Q1 and $10 million expected in Q2 [62] Question: How does the company view its debt levels? - Management expressed that while current margins are not satisfactory, they believe the balance sheet remains strong and that improvements in EBITDA will help reduce leverage [104]

新华财经纽约5月1日电（记者刘亚南）随着今年一季度美国经济出现负增长，美国经济衰退看起来正在 迫近。美国股市在近期的反弹动能有限，后市有很较大可能再次探底，短期难以摆脱弱势。 经济衰退或在上半年确认 尽管市场研究机构认为，美国经济可能在今年年中出现衰退，但在最近几日，一季度GDP负增长开始成 为多家研究机构的关注话题。 鉴于进口消费品的增加导致商品贸易逆差增加，高盛集团把今年一季度美国GDP年化环比增速从此前的 萎缩0.2%调整为萎缩0.8%。 投资银行杰弗瑞集团（Jefferies）则把一季度美国GDP增速从0.9%调整为-0.2%。法国巴黎银行（BNP- Paribas)把美国一季度GDP增长预期下调一个百分点，至-0.6%。摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家迈克尔·加 彭（Michael Gapen）则认为，美国一季度GDP将收缩1.5%。 美国商务部30日早间发布的首次预估数据印证了以上几家研究机构的判断，美国经济在一季度出现负增 长。数据显示，美国一季度GDP环比按年率计算萎缩0.3%，弱于市场预期的0.2%和2024年四季度的 2.4%，这是2022年一季度以来首次出现负增长。 数据还显示，美国一季度商品 ...

金十数据4月30日讯，德国经济在2025年伊始恢复了扩张。德国统计机构Destatis称，一季度德国GDP增 长了0.2%，扭转了去年最后一个季度0.2%的降幅。经济学家们曾预计，随着实际收入增长和通胀降 温，德国将在整个2025年实现复苏，但德国的出口经济将成为受特朗普关税打击最严重的经济体之一， 目前美国对来自欧盟的汽车、钢铁和铝征收25%的进口关税，对大多数其他商品征收10%的关税。本周 三，汽车制造商梅赛德斯-奔驰成为在当前贸易不确定性下撤回2025年指引的又一家公司。 德国经济一季度微幅增长，美关税威胁压制复苏前景 ...

Group 1 - Mark Mobius holds 95% of his fund in cash, indicating a cautious approach due to trade uncertainties that may last up to six months [1] - Mobius believes that emerging markets like India will perform well once uncertainties stabilize, but he emphasizes the need to wait for clearer conditions [1] - A recent Bank of America survey shows that investor sentiment regarding the economic outlook is at its lowest in 30 years, reflecting increased risk due to tariff tensions [1] Group 2 - Mobius manages approximately $300 million in assets and expects India to benefit from the U.S. seeking to reshape global supply chains away from reliance on China [3] - He is optimistic about Indian stocks related to software and electronic hardware, while also holding a small amount of S&P 500 index funds to track the market [3] - Mobius anticipates that the S&P 500 index will recover by the end of the year as investor confidence in U.S. investments improves [3]

资深新兴市场投资者、有"新兴市场教父"之称的麦朴思（Mark Mobius）表示，鉴于贸易相关的不确定 性可能持续长达六个月，他已将其基金的大部分持仓维持在现金中。 麦朴思周三在接受采访时表示："在这个阶段，现金为王。所以我基金里95%的资金都是现金。目前， 我们必须保留现金，并在时机成熟时做好行动准备。" 麦朴思已经投资新兴市场约三十年，他表示，印度等一些新兴市场国家在这种环境下会表现相当不 错，"但我们必须等到这一切稳定下来，看到这种不确定性平息。" 他表示，投资者可能只有在贸易谈判在未来四到六个月内进行后，才能评估市场机会。麦朴思补充说， 他不会持有如此多现金"超过三到四个月"，并将根据机会所在地开始部署部分资金。"如果市场进一步 下跌，我们当然会投入更多资金。" Brandywine的Lye表示，令投资者对新兴市场感到意外的是普遍的说法和预期，即在美国经济衰退即将 来临的情况下，新兴市场"不会挺住"。 她表示："我认为很多人已被证明是错误的，因为它们（新兴市场）正在挺住。"她补充说，其中一些国 家有足够的财政缓冲和货币空间来抵消增长担忧。 目前，投资者已大量涌入新兴市场债券，因为在美国总统特朗普的"对 ...