Group 1: Cross-Asset Overview - The report indicates a general pullback in equity markets, with safe-haven assets outperforming risk assets. The Hong Kong stock market led declines in developed markets, while South Korea's stock market led declines in emerging markets. Commodity prices showed increased divergence, with oil prices rebounding but copper prices plummeting over 20% due to policy impacts. The overall bond market in China showed signs of recovery, while the US dollar strengthened against other currencies [7][20][57]. Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - The global equity market experienced a widespread pullback, with developed and emerging markets declining simultaneously. In developed markets, major US indices fell over 2%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index dropped 4.2%. In emerging markets, South Korea's KOSDAQ fell 4.2%, driven by concerns over tax reforms proposed by the government, which included raising capital gains tax thresholds and increasing corporate tax rates [20][21][25]. Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bull flattening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward. The 10Y-2Y yield spread narrowed, indicating a stable bond market environment. In contrast, the US bond market showed a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve also moving downward but the 10Y-2Y spread widening. The market anticipates an 80.3% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, following disappointing employment data [38][39]. Group 4: Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity prices shifted from rising to falling, with copper prices experiencing a significant drop of 23.3%. The report highlights that oil and gold prices increased, while other commodities faced declines. The US dollar index rose by 1% during the week, supported by strong GDP growth and employment data from the US, leading to a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies [57][58][62].

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that despite challenges faced by the U.S. stock market in early 2023, it has managed to recover and reach new highs, supported by three macro pillars: AI technology, fiscal expansion, and global capital rebalancing [1][4][39] - The U.S. stock market's risk premium has reached historically low levels, with the Nasdaq's risk premium remaining negative since May 2023, indicating a strong investor demand for equities despite rising interest rates [4][6][7] - The decline in risk premium is primarily attributed to the rapid increase in interest rates initiated by the Federal Reserve in March 2022, which has led to a significant drop in the equity risk premium [9][11][21] Group 2 - The article discusses the structural differentiation within the U.S. stock market, highlighting that the performance of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks has significantly outpaced the broader market, contributing to the overall low risk premium [39][41] - The risk premium for the top 20 performing stocks is notably lower than that of the remaining 480 stocks, indicating a concentration of risk and performance within a small number of high-growth companies [41][46] - The article suggests that as long as the advantages of leading tech stocks, particularly in the AI sector, continue, the low risk premium in the U.S. stock market can be sustained [38][46] Group 3 - The article proposes that the reasonable level of risk premium for the S&P 500 could still have slight room for decline, with potential index levels projected between 6200 and 6400 based on current economic conditions and interest rate expectations [52][58] - It emphasizes that adjustments in the calculation of risk premium, considering relative interest rates and the contribution of overseas investors, indicate that the perceived low risk premium may not be as low as it appears [30][36][38] - The analysis concludes that the ongoing "asset scarcity" globally and the relative attractiveness of U.S. equities will likely support the current market dynamics, despite potential short-term volatility [38][58]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the low equity risk premium in the US stock market, exploring the underlying factors that contribute to this phenomenon and its implications for future market performance [6][34]. Group 1: Macro Factors Influencing US Stock Market - The US stock market has been buoyed by three macro pillars: AI technology, fiscal expansion, and global capital rebalancing, which have created a positive feedback loop [2]. - Despite challenges in early 2023, including tech layoffs and fiscal tightening, the US stock market has quickly recovered and reached new highs [2][4]. - The performance of the US stock market and the dollar suggests a potential slight strengthening of the dollar, contrary to the prevailing narrative of "de-dollarization" [4]. Group 2: Understanding Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium (ERP) measures the additional return investors require for taking on the risk of investing in stocks compared to risk-free assets [7][8]. - Currently, the ERP for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq is significantly lower than that of other major global markets, with the S&P at 0.36% and Nasdaq at -0.6%, while European and Japanese markets show premiums of 4.0% and 3.6% respectively [8][10]. - The decline in the ERP began after the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes in 2022, which raised the 10-year Treasury yield from 2.1% to nearly 5.0% [10]. Group 3: Reevaluating Risk Premium Calculations - The article questions whether the traditional method of calculating ERP using nominal interest rates is appropriate, given the recent economic changes [12][13]. - It highlights that the divergence between nominal and real interest rates, particularly post-pandemic, may distort the perceived risk premium [15]. - The relative interest rate, which considers the difference between actual and natural rates, may provide a more accurate reflection of opportunity costs and valuation [17][21]. Group 4: Structural Differentiation in the US Stock Market - The low ERP is also attributed to significant structural differences within the market, driven primarily by AI trends and leading tech stocks [34]. - The "Magnificent Seven" stocks have surged 174% since late 2022, significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500, which rose 62% [34][36]. - The top 20 performing stocks have a current ERP of -0.8%, while the remaining 480 stocks have an ERP of 1.2%, indicating a stark contrast in risk premiums [36][41]. Group 5: Future Outlook for Risk Premium - The article suggests that the ERP may have room for slight decline, with potential S&P 500 levels projected between 6200 and 6400 based on current economic conditions [43][50]. - It also discusses the possibility of a market correction due to external factors, which could provide better buying opportunities [50].

Market Performance - The recent five trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 1.65%, the ChiNext Index by 0.74%, the large-cap value index by 1.27%, the large-cap growth index by 2.58%, the SSE 50 by 1.48%, and the CSI 2000 representing small caps by 0.19% [1] - The pharmaceutical and communication sectors performed well, while coal and non-ferrous metals lagged [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, defined as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Index (EP) minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicates that the implied returns of equity and bond assets are at historically high levels, reaching 4.17% on April 26, 2022, and 4.08% on October 28, 2022 [1] - As of January 19, 2024, the indicator was at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4% [1] - The latest figure as of August 1, 2025, is 3.48%, with the two-standard-deviation boundary set at 4.76% [1] Valuation Levels - As of August 1, 2025, the CSI All Index's TTM PE is at the 64th percentile, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 66% and 58% respectively, while the ChiNext Index is close to 25% [2] - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 46% and 37% respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical levels [2] Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index shows a pattern of bear markets every three years, followed by bull markets, with previous declines ranging from 40% to 45% [2] - The current adjustment cycle began in the first quarter of 2021, suggesting a potential for upward movement from the bottom [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 13.1 billion yuan, while margin financing increased by approximately 42.6 billion yuan [2] - The average daily trading volume across both markets was 1.7848 trillion yuan [2] AI and Machine Learning Applications - A convolutional neural network (CNN) was utilized to model price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes, with a focus on semiconductor materials [2][7] ETF Indexes - Various ETF indexes related to semiconductor materials and innovation were listed, including the SSE Sci-Tech Semiconductor Materials Equipment Theme Index and the CSI Semiconductor Industry Index, all dated August 1, 2025 [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Overnight oil prices declined, ending a three - day rally and correcting some risk premiums. Trump's extreme pressure may aim to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, with a weak intention to block Russian oil and limited impact on the crude oil market. The short - term impact of geopolitical risk events on the crude oil market is limited and cannot reverse the overall trend. After the macro super - week, the market logic will shift more towards fundamentals. This week, focus on the August 3rd OPEC+ meeting and the subsequent reaction of the crude oil market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.盘面动态 - As of the close, the September - delivered light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 74 cents, closing at $69.26 per barrel, a decline of 1.06%. The September - delivered London Brent crude oil futures price fell 71 cents, closing at $72.53 per barrel, a decline of 0.97%. The night - session SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.71%, at 528 yuan per barrel [3]. 3.2.市场动态 - The EIA crude oil inventory increase in the US for the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025, and the EIA gasoline inventory decline was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. In May, US oil production reached a record 13.49 million barrels per day, and the supply of crude oil and petroleum products in May both rose to the highest level since January [5]. - The US Middle East envoy met with Netanyahu to discuss issues such as a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. On July 31, the US Middle East envoy Witkoff visited Israel and met with Prime Minister Netanyahu. They will mainly discuss the Gaza cease - fire agreement, the current humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the Iranian nuclear issue. Witkoff also plans to go to Gaza [5]. - Sources said that in the past week, Indian state - owned refiners stopped buying Russian oil due to reduced discounts and Trump's tariff threats. It is necessary to focus on the shipping dynamics of Russian crude oil, as well as the changes in its in - transit crude oil and floating storage inventory. The pressure exerted by the US on Russia has begun to have an impact, but the extent and duration of this impact need further observation. Market concerns will support the crude oil market in the short term [5]. - The US core PCE inflation annual rate unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8% in June, while consumer spending almost stagnated. After the release of the June PCE indicators last night, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September further decreased, from nearly 70% to below 40%. If Trump wants to push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, he must effectively control energy prices, especially oil prices [5]. 3.3.全球原油盘面价格及价差变动 - Provided price and spread data of various crude oils (Brent, WTI, SC, Dubai, Oman, Murban) on July 31, 30, and 24, 2025, including daily and weekly price changes and differences between different contracts [6].

Group 1 - London gold prices are currently experiencing fluctuations, trading between $3307.79 and $3316.81, reflecting a short-term bearish trend influenced by the subtle progress in US-China trade negotiations [1][3] - The US Trade Representative indicated that there would be no breakthrough in the current round of trade talks, leading to sustained market concerns over trade disputes, which has established a key support level for gold at $3300 [1][3] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, reaching 73.9 million ounces by the end of June, highlighting gold's strategic value as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - Technically, London gold is at a critical testing point of the bullish trend line between $3320 and $3330; a significant drop below this support could trigger a sell-off, while a breakout above $3350 could open up upward potential to $3385 [3] - The current market dynamics are shaped by the interplay of policy cycles and geopolitical risks, with the US Congressional Budget Office predicting a fiscal deficit rate above 6% for 2025, which may elevate inflation expectations and reinforce gold's anti-inflation properties [4] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding US military actions against Iran, has raised concerns about potential disruptions in the energy supply chain, providing long-term support for gold prices [4] Group 3 - Gold ETF fund flows have shown divergence, with a net inflow of 16.7 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, but a recent slowdown in ETF holdings growth indicates cautious sentiment in the market [4] - Jinsheng Precious Metals, a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, offers a robust trading solution with a compliance framework that includes bank custody, independent audits, and risk reserves, ensuring transparency and security for investors [5] - The company has implemented a "zero commission + ultra-low spread" strategy, with a spread as low as $0.38 per ounce, providing significant cost savings for investors in a volatile market [5] Group 4 - The platform supports MT4/MT5 systems with rapid order execution speeds and low slippage rates, enhancing the trading experience for investors during high volatility periods [6] - Looking ahead, London gold is expected to exhibit a "volatile upward" trend, with potential to break through the $3400 mark as Fed rate cut expectations materialize [7] - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of "buying on dips and dynamic profit-taking," with specific entry and exit points to maximize returns while managing risks effectively [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report - Report Date: July 30, 2025 - Report Team: Macro Team of the Research Center [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on July 29, 2025: The yields varied widely across countries, e.g., the US was 4.321%, the UK was 4.632%, and China was 1.747% [2] - Latest Changes: Yields in most countries had small changes, with the US down 0.091, while France, Germany, etc., had increases [2] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: There were different trends. For example, the UK had a 0.064 increase in a week, 0.179 in a month, and 0.510 in a year [2] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on July 29, 2025: The US was 3.910%, the UK was 3.890%, etc. [2] - Latest Changes: The US had no change, while Germany increased by 0.023 [2] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: Different trends were observed, e.g., the US had a 0.030 increase in a week, 0.010 in a month, and - 0.510 in a year [2] Dollar - to - Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates - Rates on July 29, 2025: Against the dollar, the Brazilian real was 5.575, the South African rand was 17.888, etc. [2] - Latest Changes: The Brazilian real decreased by 0.25%, while the South African rand increased by 0.06% [2] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: Different trends were shown, e.g., the Brazilian real had a 0.17% increase in a week, 2.12% in a month, and - 0.41% in a year [2] Stock Indices of Major Economies - Closing Prices on July 29, 2025: The S&P 500 was 6370.860, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44632.990, etc. [2] - Latest Changes: The S&P 500 decreased by 0.30%, while the French CAC increased by 0.72% [2] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: Different trends were present, e.g., the S&P 500 had a 0.97% increase in a week, 2.79% in a month, and 15.73% in a year [2] Credit Bond Indices - Latest Changes: The US investment - grade credit bond index increased by 0.53%, the emerging economies investment - grade credit bond index increased by 0.31%, etc. [2][3] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: Different trends were seen, e.g., the US investment - grade credit bond index had a 0.41% increase in a week, 0.20% in a month, and 5.76% in a year [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices: A - shares were 3609.71, the CSI 300 was 4152.02, etc. [4] - Price Changes (%): A - shares increased by 0.33%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.39%, etc. [4] Valuation - PE (TTM): The CSI 300 was 13.35, the S&P 500 was 27.03, etc. [4] -环比 Changes: The CSI 300 decreased by 0.17, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.08, etc. [4] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - Year Interest Rate: The S&P 500 was - 0.62, the German DAX was 2.12 [4] -环比 Changes: The S&P 500 increased by 0.10, the German DAX decreased by 0.07 [4] Fund Flows - Latest Values: A - shares had a net outflow of 662.18, the main board had a net outflow of 680.95, etc. [4] - 5 - Day Average Values: A - shares had a net outflow of 521.14, the main board had a net outflow of 505.71, etc. [4] Trading Volume - Latest Values: The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a trading volume of 18031.71, the CSI 300 had a trading volume of 4287.64, etc. [4] -环比 Changes: The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 608.64, the CSI 300 increased by 219.71, etc. [4] Main Contract Premiums and Discounts - Basis: IF was - 10.62, IH was 5.41, IC was - 93.13 [4] - Premium/Discount Ratios: IF was - 0.26%, IH was 0.19%, IC was - 1.47% [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data Closing Prices - T00 was 108.130, TF00 was 105.545, T01 was 108.115, TF01 was 105.610 [5] Price Changes (%) - T00 increased by 0.20%, TF00 increased by 0.14%, T01 increased by 0.20%, TF01 increased by 0.16% [5] Money Market - The 3 - month SHIBOR was 1.5600%, with a daily change of 0.00 BP [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: Yields of major economies' 10 - year treasuries showed various changes. For example, the US 10 - year treasury yield was 4.390 on 2025/07/25, with a latest change of - 0.008, a one - week change of - 0.028, a one - month change of 0.111, and a one - year change of 0.231 [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: The US 2 - year treasury yield was 3.880 on 2025/07/25, with a latest change of 0.050, a one - week change of 0.000, a one - month change of 0.020, and a one - year change of - 0.560 [2]. - **Dollar - to - Emerging Economies' Currency Exchange Rates**: The dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.564 on 2025/07/25, with a latest change of 0.79%, a one - week change of - 0.27%, a one - month change of 1.41%, and a one - year change of 1.49% [2]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: The S&P 500 index was 6388.640 on 2025/07/25, with a latest change of 0.40%, a one - week change of 1.46%, a one - month change of 3.49%, and a one - year change of 14.32% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.25%, a one - week change of 0.56%, a one - month change of 0.36%, and a one - year change of 4.76% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share index closed at 3593.66 with a decline of 0.33%. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 27.10 with a环比 change of 0.10 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 933.40, and the 5 - day average was - 399.85 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 17873.37, with a环比 change of - 573.69 [4]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of the IF contract was - 11.16, with a premium/discount rate of - 0.27% [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data - The T00 treasury futures closed at 108.180 with a decline of 0.28%. The R001 capital interest rate was 1.5522% with a daily change of - 5.00 BP [5]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 4.63% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.76%. In contrast, the large-cap value index fell by 0.11%, and the large-cap growth index increased by 2.41% [1] - The construction materials and coal sectors performed well, whereas the banking and telecommunications sectors lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, defined as the difference between the static PE of the CSI All Share Index and the yield of 10-year government bonds, has shown significant historical extremes. As of April 26, 2022, it reached 4.17%, and on October 28, 2022, it was 4.08%. The latest reading on January 19, 2024, was 4.11%, marking the fifth instance since 2016 where it exceeded 4% [1] - As of July 25, 2025, the risk premium indicator stands at 3.35%, with the two-standard-deviation boundary at 4.76% [1] Valuation Levels - As of July 25, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's PE TTM percentile is at 67%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 indices are at 68% and 62%, respectively, while the ChiNext Index is at approximately 26%. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are at 49% and 38%, indicating that the ChiNext Index is relatively undervalued compared to historical averages [2] Long-term Market Trends - The Shenzhen 100 Index has historically experienced bear markets every three years, followed by bull markets. The last adjustment began in Q1 2021, suggesting that the current market has ample time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 4.3 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased by approximately 36.9 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 181.79 billion yuan [4] AI and Machine Learning Applications - A convolutional neural network (CNN) model has been utilized to analyze graphical price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes. The latest focus is on sectors such as non-ferrous metals [3][10]

Report Information - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Global Asset Market Performance and Related Trading Data Key Points of Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 23, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.383%, 4.634%, 3.299% respectively, with various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 23, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.850%, 3.876%, 1.839% respectively, with different changes over different time - spans [3] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On July 23, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.520, with a latest change of - 0.81%, and different changes in other time periods [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 23, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6358.910, with a latest change of 0.78%, and different changes in weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. Other indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, etc., also had their respective performances [3] Credit Bond Indices - The US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc., had different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3][4] Key Points of Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3582.30, 4119.77, 2801.20 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and other indices were 13.53, 11.44, etc., with corresponding环比changes [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.68, with a环比change of - 0.07, and the German DAX had its own values [5] Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, etc., were - 1079.62, - 851.71, etc., with different 5 - day average values [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were 18646.00, 4703.31, etc., with corresponding环比changes [5] Main Contract Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 10.57, 1.60, - 76.76 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Key Points of Treasury Futures Trading Data Treasury Futures - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.520, 105.790, 108.600, 105.875 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [6] Funding Rates - The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4268%, 1.5017%, 1.5510% respectively, with corresponding daily changes in basis points [6]