杨德龙 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表了鸽派讲话，已经明确9月份降息的可能性非常 大。他的表态此前一直非常谨慎，从未明确暗示9月份会降息，但当前美国非农就业数据出现下降，特 别是美国劳工统计局大幅下调了5月份和6月份的就业数据，让特朗普非常恼火，解雇了美国劳工统计局 局长。 此外，特朗普近期又对另一位美联储理事发起免职威胁，试图换上支持其降息的理事。这些举动实际上 都是在给鲍威尔施加压力。鲍威尔看到7月美国CPI同比增速已经降至2.7%，通胀相对不高，而经济数 据确实出现明显下降，此时若仍不降息显得不近人情，甚至会被视为过于顽固，因此这次他发表了鸽派 言论，让市场普遍相信9月份美联储降息25个基点。 年底之前还有两次议息会议，美联储可能每次都会降25个基点，全年或能降三次息，累计降75个基点。 按照上述假设，美国联邦基准利率就会从4.25%~4.5%降至3.5%~3.75%，进入"三字头"，这将大大减轻 美国政府的还债压力，同时对全球央行形成示范效应。 美联储被视为"世界央行"，其一举一动都会对全球央行的举措产生影响，一旦开启降息周期，将带动更 多央行跟随。中国央行也将 ...

知名经济学家盘和林向21财经·南财快讯记者表示，成交额突破3万亿说明A股已处牛市，流动性宽松、外汇回流及储蓄搬家都是推高市场成交额的因素。 盘和林强调，A股存在较为明显的周期轮动，本轮牛市"不是来早，而是来晚"。 板块方面，午后算力硬件股涨势扩大，胜宏科技（300476）、生益电子双双创历史新高，多股涨停。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 == | | --- | --- | --- | | 长芯博创 | 115.88 | 13.86% | | 300548.SZ | | | | 中际旭创 | 316.50 | 13.48% | | 300308.SZ | | | | 菲菱科思 | 117.15 | 13.23% | | 301191.SZ | | | | 长江通信 | 29.66 | 10.01% | | 600345.SH | | | | 剑桥科技 | 72.88 | 10.01% | | 603083.SH | | | | 长飞米纤 | 64.88 | 10.00% | | 601869.SH | | | | 仕佳光子 | 71.17 | 9.90% | | 688313.SH | | | | 新易盛 ...

2025年8月25日，A股市场再度迎来历史性时刻，成交金额再次突破3万亿元，上一次是去年10月8日。 事实上，今日开盘不足半小时，成交额已连续第63个交易日突破1万亿元，较前一交易日同期放量超 3200亿元。当前，A股已连续9个交易日成交额突破2万亿元，刷新历史纪录。 经济学家、新质未来研究院院长张奥平向21财经·南财快讯记者表示，当前市场较高的成交额，是政策 与市场协同共振的结果。一方面，居民储蓄正加速向资本市场转移；另一方面，外资持续流入也为市场 注入活力。但他同时提醒，对于投资而言，需谨慎乐观，因新一轮行情仍有待经济基本面、企业盈利等 数据验证。 截至2025年8月25日，A股历史上单日成交额超2万亿元的天数共35天，其中2024年占18天，2025年占12 天，2015年占5天。这一数据反映出近期市场活跃度的显著提升。 | A股成交额超2万亿交易日一览 | | | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 金额(亿元) | | 2024-10-08 | 34, 835. 43 | | 2025-08-25 | 超3万亿 | | 2024-10-09 | 29, 665. 53 | | 2025-08- ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading stocks in a bull market and avoiding distractions from less significant stocks, suggesting that a multi-line structure is essential for the second phase of a bull market [1]. Group 1 - The bull market is characterized by a concentration of hot money in a few leading sectors and stocks, with significant price movements observed in industries such as semiconductor, PCB, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1]. - The market sentiment has shifted from a fluctuating state to a more stable and positive range, indicating a healthy market environment since June [1]. - The article advises investors to maintain a broad perspective and focus on the direction of the market rather than getting caught up in the minutiae of stock selection [1][3]. Group 2 - The article notes that predicting daily stock movements is challenging, and it is more effective to concentrate on the details of leading stocks as long as they do not break critical support levels [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has surged past the 3700 and 3800 points, reaching a 10-year high, driven by a recovery in risk appetite and a rebalancing of valuation between stocks and bonds [1][5][8] - The market is experiencing a second phase of a bull market, with significant participation from retail investors, private equity, and foreign capital, leading to increased liquidity and trading volume [2][5][12] - The shift from a "barbell strategy" to a more balanced investment approach is confirmed, as sectors like technology and domestic semiconductor industries gain traction [5][10][22] Group 2 - Recent behavior of different types of incremental capital shows that retail investors are increasingly optimistic about the bull market, with a notable rise in discussions and investments in ETFs [14][17] - The Federal Reserve's signals regarding potential interest rate cuts have improved the liquidity environment, particularly benefiting Hong Kong stocks, which are now seen as more attractive compared to A-shares [3][26] - The current bull market is still in its second phase, with many indicators suggesting that there is significant room for growth compared to previous bull market peaks [4][25][27]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a bullish trend, with major indices opening high and the brokerage sector showing strength, highlighted by significant gains in stocks like Xiangcai Co., which rose over 7% [1] - The A-share index has surpassed 3,800 points, with trading volume exceeding 20 trillion yuan for eight consecutive trading days, indicating strong market liquidity that benefits the brokerage sector's performance [1] - A total of 27 listed brokerages have reported mid-year earnings forecasts, showing a year-on-year net profit growth of 63.0% to 77.2% for the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - The current monetary policy remains moderately loose, and with the support of state-owned entities and increased long-term capital allocation to equities, there is still potential for margin financing balances to rise, which is favorable for brokerage businesses [1] - Tianhong Fund reiterates its previous view that the brokerage sector acts as a market initiator, with recent stock movements potentially indicating future market trends; the current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the brokerage sector is 1.59x, positioned at the 47.65% percentile over the past decade, suggesting a historical low valuation with room for recovery [1] - Investment opportunities in the brokerage sector are recommended, specifically focusing on securities ETFs like 159841 and off-market C-class funds like 008591, to capitalize on the bullish market conditions [1]

近期资本市场高歌猛进，迎来了重大利好。美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表了鸽派 讲话，明确表示9月份降息的可能性非常大。此前，鲍威尔一直谨慎，未明确暗示9月份会降息。然而， 当前美国非农就业数据下降，特别是美国劳工局大幅下调了5月和6月的就业数据，这让特朗普非常恼 火，当场解雇了美国劳工局局长。此外，特朗普近期还对另一位美联储理事发起免职威胁，试图换上支 持降息的理事，给鲍威尔施加压力。 鲍威尔看到当前美国CPI已降至2.5%，通胀压力不大，而经济数据也出现明显下降，此时不降息显得不 近人情。因此，他发表鸽派言论，让市场相信9月份美联储降息25个基点几乎板上钉钉。而且年底前还 有两次议息会议，预计每次降息25个基点，总共可能降息75个基点。目前美国联邦基准利率为 4.25%~4.5%，若降息75个基点，将降至3.5%~3.75%，进入"三字头"区间。 这对美国政府的还债压力将大大减轻，同时也会对全球央行形成示范效应。美联储被视为全球央行，其 一举一动都会影响全球央行的举措。一旦美联储开启今年的降息周期，将带动更多央行降息。中国央行 也将有更大的货币政策空间，可能会再次降息降准，以提振经济，稳住楼市 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current market rally is mainly driven by risk appetite, with investors' bullish sentiment leading to continuous capital inflows and forming a positive feedback loop. The correlation between the current market and fundamentals is low. In the absence of policy cooling, the strong market trend is expected to continue [3] - Key factors to watch include domestic policy trends and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies [4] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - For intraday trading, refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [5] Trend Strategy - Adopt a long - position approach. The core operating ranges for IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are 4262 - 4482 points, 2868 - 3001 points, 6606 - 7049 points, and 7091 - 7569 points respectively [5] Cross - variety Strategy - Given the potential rotation in the market under bullish sentiment, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for cross - variety strategies [6] Group 4: Market Review and Data Global Index Performance - Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.53%, the S&P 500 rose 0.27%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.58%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 2%, Germany's DAX rose 0.02%, and France's CAC40 rose 0.58%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.72% and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.27%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.49% [9] Domestic Index Performance - Since 2025, the ChiNext Index has led the gains among major domestic indices. Last week, all major domestic indices rose, with the ChiNext Index leading the way [7][9] Industry Performance in Indexes - In the CSI 300 Index, the telecommunications and information sectors had significant gains last week. In the CSI 500 Index, the information and telecommunications sectors also performed well [11] Futures Market Performance - Last week, the IF futures contract had the largest increase and the largest amplitude among the major futures contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both rebounded [13][14][15] Index Valuation - As of August 15, the P/E ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 15.89 times, 13.46 times, 11.49 times, 30.33 times, and 41.17 times respectively [20][21] Market Fundamentals - The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are important indicators of market capital inflows. Last week, the capital interest rate rebounded, and the central bank had a net capital injection [23]

8月24日，和讯投顾吴青宇称，牛市周末利好消息扎堆。先说本周五世界央行大会上，鲍威尔秒变鸽 派，称经济风险为降息提供了足够理由。要我说，鲍威尔也别遮遮掩掩了，干脆直接降息得了，上周二 还提到9月份可能不降息，美联储主席的话真是难以捉摸。受此消息刺激，美股大涨，三大指数收盘涨 幅均超1.5%，中概股更是强势，收盘大涨近4%。看来明天A股行情稳了。此外，国内期货黑色系大 涨，纽交所金银铜铝原油也全线大涨，这利好有色相关板块。第二，央行开始行动，下周一将开展6000 亿中期借贷便利操作。指数突破3800点后，央行仍敢在此位置提供流动性，看来4000点未必是顶部。第 三，中国光伏行业协会倡议抵制低成本恶意竞争，反对违反市场经济规律和法律法规盲目扩产增产的行 为。目前受缺货涨价影响，光伏组件厂报价为0.7元/瓦，这利好光伏行业。期待下周一光伏行业能否迎 来轮动上涨，明天市场就要开市了。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed strong performance last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points, reaching a ten-year high, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rising over 8%, marking a three-year high [1] - Both the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index are above the 5-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] - The current market liquidity environment is improving, with a noticeable trend of residents allocating assets towards the equity market, enhancing the market's investment attractiveness [1] Group 2 - Financial sentiment is expected to attract new funds into the market following the Shanghai Composite Index's breakthrough of strong resistance levels, potentially accelerating index growth in the short term [2] - The market's future performance will test investor sentiment, with attention needed on potential regulatory measures if the index continues to rise rapidly and on the impact of concentrated semi-annual report disclosures at the end of August [2] - Despite short-term disturbances, the long-term bullish foundation of the A-share market remains intact [2]