昨晚提到，本周一共四件大事，提振消费发布会、小米和腾讯的年报、美俄领导人昨晚通电话，以及明天凌晨的美联储议息会议。 第二，舍得花钱 。24年派发股息320亿、回购1120亿港币，合计1400+亿港币，也就是花了1300亿左右的人民币（而全年净利润2000亿左右）；2025年， 计划派息410亿，至少回购800亿，合计超1200亿。什么叫股东回报，什么叫真正的市值管理，这就是了。 说腾讯现在是中国的"股王" ，我觉得一点都不为过，说到底，是两个原因。 昨天 小米 的年报是港股盘后发的，昨晚美股的小米ADR涨接近4%，今天小米的港股涨接近1%，而恒生科技跌-1%，换句话说，市场已经算很认 可了——雷总的小米什么都好，就是太贵了，50多倍的PE，咬咬牙闭着眼才能吞下去。 然后昨晚 普/特 两人也通完电话了，据说普因为作一个企业家年度大会的讲话，还让特等了一个小时，这就非常牛逼，能让川宝等1个小时的， 地球上可能也找不出第二个人了。 当然，今天最重要的，还是 股王腾讯的年报 ，也是港股盘后发布的，整体继续超预期，四季度营收同比增11%，净利润同比增90%；全年的 话，营收同比增8%，净利润同比增68%。 我看了一眼， ...

FINANCIAL RESULTS FY25 4Q SUPPLEMENTAL FINANCIAL PRESENTATION March 17, 2025 Forward Looking Statements In addition, these slides should be read in conjunction with our earnings press release dated March 17, 2025 along with listening to or reading a transcript of the management comments delivered in an earnings conference call held on March 17, 2025. All information in these slides are as of March 17, 2025. SAIC expressly disclaims any duty to update any forward-looking statement provided in this release to ...

Core Viewpoint - FedEx is expected to report its Q3 earnings on March 20, with analysts predicting adjusted EPS of $4.64, a 20.2% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $21.89 billion, a 0.71% growth [1] Financial Performance - Following the Q1 earnings report on September 20, FedEx's total return has been -3.89%, compared to the S&P 500's -1.12% [1] - In Q2, FedEx achieved $540 million in cost savings and aims for $2.2 billion in savings by FY2025 [1] - The trend of EPS revisions has been downward in recent years, indicating analyst skepticism about meeting EPS forecasts [1][2] Revenue Insights - International revenue accounted for $4.988 billion, or 22.75% of total revenue in Q2, highlighting the impact of tariffs on international shipping costs [4] - Consumer confidence is low, which may lead to reduced spending, negatively affecting FedEx's cyclical business [6] Market Expectations - The market is looking for updates on the proposed freight business spin-off, which analysts believe could create significant value [7][8] - Stifel analyst J. Bruce Chan estimates over a 50% chance of a spin-off, potentially adding $100 to the stock price [9] Business Segmentation - The freight business has a higher operating profit margin of 19.3% compared to the overall business margin of 7.5% [10][11] - FedEx's freight segment is the largest LTL pure-play business, suggesting it could achieve a premium valuation as a standalone entity [11] Valuation Metrics - FedEx shares are currently trading at 12.6 times FY2025 earnings, 10.7 times FY2026 earnings, and 9.45 times FY2027 earnings, indicating a relatively low valuation [12] - The expected P/E ratio of 11.4 is slightly below the 10-year average, suggesting potential value [13] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts express caution, preferring a larger margin of safety before considering positions, especially given the uncertainty surrounding EPS, revenue, and free cash flow revisions [14] - The potential risks outweigh the rewards entering the Q3 earnings report, with analysts not believing the stock has strong upside potential at this time [15]

Core Insights - The report indicates that consumer stocks are expected to become the second main investment theme in 2025, alongside AI+ technologies, due to several macroeconomic factors [2][3][8] - The significant decline in export growth in January and February 2025 has increased the importance of boosting domestic consumption to achieve the GDP growth target of 5% [17][29] - The government budget for 2025 shows a notable increase in broad fiscal spending, projected to grow by around 9%, which is expected to enhance consumption growth [9][29] - The upcoming annual and quarterly reports are anticipated to confirm an upward turning point in free cash flow, particularly in the consumer sector, which is expected to show significant improvement [10][32] - The valuation of consumer stocks is projected to revert to around 20 times earnings, making them more attractive compared to previous high valuations [10][52] - Foreign investment preferences are likely to shift from technology stocks to consumer sectors, indicating a potential increase in foreign capital inflow into Chinese consumer assets [10][12] Economic Context - The A-share market has shown a strong performance recently, driven by the consumer sector, with policies aimed at boosting consumption being highlighted during the National People's Congress [4][11] - The report notes that the consumer sector's performance is crucial for achieving the GDP growth target, especially given the recent slowdown in export growth [17][29] - The report emphasizes the correlation between government spending and retail sales growth, suggesting that increased government expenditure will positively impact consumer spending [29][30] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with stable performance or marginal improvements, particularly those with improving free cash flow, as these are expected to outperform in the coming months [3][11] - Key sectors to watch include consumer services, electronics, automotive, and healthcare, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated economic recovery and policy support [13][51] - The report highlights the importance of free cash flow as a key metric for evaluating investment opportunities, particularly in the consumer sector, which currently shows the highest free cash flow yield [33][47]

- The report mentions that public funds have intensively applied for free cash flow-themed funds, with 23 such funds reported as of now[5][7][11] - The report highlights that the first QDII business approval of the year was granted to Caitong Asset Management, which took over a year and a half from application to approval[5][7][11] - Quantitative products' performance is summarized, with active quantitative products achieving an average return of 1.30% last week, while quantitative hedging products recorded 0.04%[5][20][21]

- The report discusses the recent surge in applications for free cash flow-themed public funds, with 23 such funds being reported[5][7] - The report highlights the approval of the first QDII business of the year, with Caitong Asset Management receiving approval after more than a year and a half of application process[5][7] - The report provides an overview of the fund issuance dynamics, noting that 32 new funds were established domestically, raising a total of 17.807 billion yuan, with the largest being the Golden Eagle Interbank Certificate of Deposit Index 7-day holding, managed by Chen Shuangshuang, at 5.001 billion yuan[5][13] - The report details the performance of various types of funds over the past week, with ordinary stock funds averaging a return of 0.73%, mixed funds 0.46%, bond funds 0.02%, active quantitative products 1.30%, and quantitative hedging products 0.04%[5][20] - The report provides year-to-date performance data, with ordinary stock funds averaging a return of 7.90%, mixed funds 6.39%, bond funds -0.02%, active quantitative products 6.28%, and quantitative hedging products 0.17%[5][23] - The report lists the top-performing funds in various categories, with the highest return in ordinary stock funds being 61.07% by Ping An Advanced Manufacturing Theme A, and the highest in mixed funds being 76.27% by Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme A[23][26] - The report discusses the dynamics of on-exchange funds, noting that the largest ETF tracking target is the CSI 300, with a total scale of 973.113 billion yuan, followed by the CSI A500 at 251.468 billion yuan, and the STAR 50 at 171.994 billion yuan[5][27] - The report provides data on the net inflows and outflows of various ETFs, with the largest net inflow being 44.24 billion yuan for the Hang Seng Technology ETF, and the largest net outflow being -61.47 billion yuan for the CSI 300 ETF[5][27] - The report includes detailed data on the subscription and redemption of the top five broad-based ETFs, highlighting the significant head effect of broad-based ETFs[5][33][35]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the fiscal year 2024, the company's net revenue increased by 13% to BRL 1.674 billion, driven by the successful conversion of annual contract value into revenue [6][7] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year grew by 13% to BRL 580 million, with a margin of 30.4% [7][14] - Free cash flow generation reached BRL 215 million, a 14% increase from 2023 [7][16] - The adjusted net profit totaled BRL 114 million in Q4 2024, an 18.9% increase compared to Q4 2023 [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The B2G business unit generated BRL 105 million in revenue for the year, a 29% increase compared to 2023 [8][12] - Subscription revenue increased by 14% to BRL 1.462 billion, representing 87% of total revenue [12][14] - Non-subscription revenue dropped by 16% to BRL 107 million [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average payment terms of the accounts receivable portfolio was 186 days in Q4 2024, which is seven days higher than the comparable quarter [19] - The net debt position decreased to BRL 1.3 billion, a BRL 37 million decrease from the previous quarter [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational efficiency and cost savings, which have yielded positive results [7] - The technology platform, Purell, is set to feature an intelligent assistant named Blue starting in 2025, aimed at enhancing the educational experience [9] - The Startango Bilingual School franchise launched in 2023 has shown impressive progress, with 40 signed contracts and a strong pipeline of over 350 prospects [9][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strategy to positively impact public education, as evidenced by improved PIAIDI scores [8] - The company anticipates challenges in the credit scenario for the upcoming months but remains committed to generating free cash flow [18][21] - The outlook for 2025 includes expectations for similar growth levels in ACV and slight improvements in margins due to better sales mix [33][34] Other Important Information - The company achieved a free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate improvement from 41.8% to 42.4% [17] - Provisions for doubtful accounts improved to 3.2% of net revenue, reflecting a decrease from the previous year [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comment on the decrease in PDA expenses as a percentage of net revenue - Management confirmed a reduction in PDA to 3.2% but expects a higher figure in the future due to anticipated challenges [26][27] Question: Insights on ACV growth and margin outlook for 2025 - ACV growth was 20% in Q4 and 14% for the fiscal year, with expectations for similar levels in 2025; margins are expected to improve slightly [30][33] Question: Clarification on G&A expenses and future expectations - G&A expenses remained flat as a percentage of sales, with a slight increase in commercial expenses due to revenue growth [41][42] Question: Expectations for B2G contracts and Start Anglo revenue - The B2G contract with Para is renewed at around BRL 80 million, with a strong pipeline expected; Start Anglo has around BRL 25 million in revenue with significant growth potential [45][46][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market trends, highlighting the decline in major indices and the contrasting performance of dividend stocks, particularly in the coal, electricity, and banking sectors, while also addressing the implications of free cash flow strategies in investment. Market Performance - The three major indices collectively weakened, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.99% [1] - Technology sectors such as robotics and AI saw significant declines, while dividend stocks in coal, electricity, and banking rose against the trend [1][13] Free Cash Flow Strategy - Several companies reported to the National Securities Free Cash Flow Index Fund, emphasizing that free cash flow is foundational for dividend distribution and focuses on a company's internal growth capabilities [1] - The first batch of free cash flow ETFs (159201) has seen its scale double since its launch, with the tracking index showing positive returns for six consecutive years from 2019 to 2024 [1] Sector Analysis - The coal mining and processing sector rose by 3.37%, with notable stocks like Dayou Energy and Meijin Energy hitting the daily limit up [13][16] - The electricity sector increased by 1.00%, while the banking sector saw a modest rise of 0.41% [13] - The article notes that coal stocks are expected to experience upward trends in demand and prices post-2025, driven by policy implementations and seasonal construction activities [16] Investment Sentiment - The article reflects on the current market sentiment towards dividend stocks, suggesting that despite recent declines, they may still offer value due to their relatively high dividend yields compared to low bond rates [20] - The article mentions that the dividend index offers a yield of 4%-6%, making it an attractive option for risk-averse investors in the current market environment [20]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The A-share market showed resilience despite adjustments in overnight European and American stock indices, with strong performance in banking and insurance sectors, while computing power and related power supply equipment sectors remained active [1] - The small and medium-sized enterprise development index rose significantly to 89.8 in February, indicating a steady improvement in industry operations across various sectors [5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 175.4 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, reflecting ongoing monetary policy support [5] - The EIA short-term energy outlook report predicts WTI crude oil prices at $70.68 per barrel for 2025, slightly up from previous expectations [8] Summary by Sections Market Overview - On March 12, the market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.23% and the Shenzhen Component down by 0.17%. Key sectors included strong performance in computing power and data center power supply stocks, while cyclical stocks like non-ferrous metals faced adjustments [2] Fund Flow - On March 12, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 5.748 billion yuan, and 2.456 billion yuan into the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with significant inflows into sectors such as charging power supplies and electric grid equipment [3][4] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, released opinions to promote high-quality development in the environmental protection equipment manufacturing industry, focusing on technological collaboration and digital transformation [11] Fund Dynamics - The number of free cash flow theme funds has expanded to 23, indicating growing interest in this investment strategy [12] - Active equity funds focusing on robotics have shown impressive performance, with some achieving returns exceeding 60% year-to-date [14] Buyer Perspectives - Recent improvements in the innovative drug sector are attributed to domestic and international liquidity factors, with expectations for a new cycle driven by data catalysts and business development opportunities [15]

张坤罕见参与了港股打新。 3月6日张坤通过QDII中签1000股的蜜雪集团收盘大涨约15%，考虑到易方达亚洲精选QDII基金规模达36亿 元，若仅是打新策略，该股对张坤的超大型基金产品无法构成实质性业绩拉动，考虑到他本次参与港股打新亦 是一次罕见的操作，背后或是该基金布局消费的前奏。 与此同时，由于市场赚钱效应在多个行业扩散，张坤所管的易方达亚洲精选基金实际上也迎来了仓位结构平衡 的节点，此前该QDII几乎全部指向科网股并淡出大部分消费品重仓股，截至去年12月末，消费品公司在十大 股票中仅剩一只，而食品饮料行业更是近三年未曾出现在这只明星QDII重仓席位上，本次张坤首次以打新的 方式覆盖奶茶赛道，或许是他在消费品乃至食品饮料行业重新布局的思考，而企业的自由现金流或将成为引导 他在二级市场买入的关键。 中签蜜雪集团1000股 显然，在整个消费品赛道中，食品饮料几乎是导致消费基金经理业绩压力最大的品种之一，而张坤在上一次将 食品饮料赛道股票纳入前十大重仓股，正好还是三年前的2022年6月，当时在港股上市的蒙牛乳业为易方达亚 洲精选基金的第六大重仓股，但在2022年第三季度的报告中，蒙牛乳业已被张坤卖出，自此之后， ...