Summary of Western Mining's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Western Mining - **Date**: July 28, 2025 Key Industry and Company Insights Production and Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Western Mining produced: - Copper: 91,700 tons, up 7.6% YoY [2][3] - Zinc: 62,900 tons, up 18.61% YoY [2][3] - Lead: 35,100 tons, up 24.63% YoY [2][3] - Molybdenum: 2,525 tons, up 31.1% YoY [2][3] - Iron concentrate: 719,000 tons, up 11.93% YoY [2][3] - Revenue reached 31.6 billion yuan, a 27% increase YoY [3] - Total profit was 3.88 billion yuan, up 23% YoY [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.87 billion yuan, up 15% YoY [3] Raw Material Sourcing and Costs - Copper smelting relies heavily on purchased anode plates and copper concentrates, with some sourced from Yulong Copper Mine [2][5] - The cost of processing anode plates is approximately 500 to 600 yuan per ton, leading to losses in this segment [6] - The complete cost of copper concentrate is around 4,800 to 4,900 yuan per ton [9] Project Developments - The Yulong Project Phase III is expected to be completed by the end of 2026, with an estimated investment of 4.8 billion yuan [2][10] - The project will increase copper concentrate production to 180,000 to 200,000 tons, but costs will rise to 35,000 to 36,000 yuan per ton [10] Profitability and Challenges - The company reported a profit of 5.8 million yuan from Xianghe Nonferrous, while Xigu Precious Metals incurred a loss of 140 million yuan [2][12] - Zinc smelting is profitable, but lead smelting in Qinghai is currently unprofitable due to high processing costs [13] Asset Impairment and Future Risks - An asset impairment of over 100 million yuan was recorded due to significant price declines in vanadium and hydrofluoric acid [14] - Future impairments may occur if product prices continue to fluctuate [14] Research and Development - R&D expenses increased by nearly 300 million yuan due to initial production challenges at new smelting plants and investments in the Xigui project [20] - The company plans to invest 2.9 billion yuan in equipment upgrades, with over 600 million yuan allocated for modernization [23] Strategic Initiatives - A new resource expansion department was established in Tibet and Qinghai to enhance exploration and acquisition efforts [4][16] - The company aims to improve recovery rates through technological advancements, although there are limits based on ore quality [22] Debt Management and Shareholder Returns - The company has a significant debt load but maintains a low cost of debt, with long-term borrowing rates between 1.1% and 3% [32] - The dividend policy for 2025 remains under consideration, with a focus on balancing shareholder returns and investment needs [26][27] Market Outlook - Western Mining does not plan to reduce production despite market pressures, as it has social responsibilities as a state-owned enterprise [31] - Future production increases are expected, but growth will be limited post-Phase III completion [19] Conclusion - Western Mining is positioned for growth with ongoing projects and strategic initiatives, but faces challenges in raw material costs and market fluctuations. The focus on R&D and resource expansion indicates a proactive approach to maintaining competitiveness in the mining sector.

Core Viewpoint - The traditional trading model of buying low and selling high is evolving due to compressed profits and intensified competition in the methanol industry. Jiangyin Jinqiao Chemical Co., Ltd. is pioneering a sustainable development path through "financial empowerment of the real economy and transformation driven by futures and spot markets" [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The profit margins for upstream and downstream in the industry are low, squeezing the profit space for intermediaries, making it difficult for them to profit directly from trading [2] - The transparency of market information has diminished the advantages of information asymmetry that traders previously relied on, necessitating a shift in trading models and the search for better tools [2] Group 2: Company Strategy - Jinqiao Chemical began exploring the integration of futures and spot markets since the launch of methanol futures, implementing hedging strategies to stabilize sales and reduce costs [2][3] - The company has seen a significant increase in methanol trade volume, with imports reaching 1.762 million tons and domestic trade at 3.676 million tons in 2024, up from 504,000 tons and 2.116 million tons in 2022, respectively [2] Group 3: Risk Management and Financial Tools - The company utilizes various financial instruments, including futures, options, and swaps, to hedge against price fluctuations and stabilize operational costs [3] - Jinqiao Chemical has developed a comprehensive risk management system and a professional team to implement a "hedging + arbitrage + basis trading" framework, transitioning from a traditional trader to a risk management service provider [6] Group 4: Innovative Trading Models - The company promotes innovative trading models, such as point pricing, to minimize friction losses and ensure stable procurement and sales for upstream and downstream partners [5] - Jinqiao Chemical is actively pushing the methanol industry from passive risk avoidance to proactive risk management, aiming to establish dual advantages of "price resilience + technological barriers" in the context of energy transition and global competition [6]

Group 1 - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) to all shareholders, without issuing bonus shares or increasing capital from reserves [16][19][20] - The total cash dividend amount is expected to be 332.7372 million yuan, accounting for 12.61% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025 [19][20] - The profit distribution plan is subject to approval by the shareholders' meeting, and there is uncertainty regarding its implementation [21] Group 2 - The company has proposed to renew the appointment of the accounting firm, Crowe Horwath, for the 2025 annual audit, which requires approval from the shareholders' meeting [24][26] - The accounting firm has a strong track record, with nearly 6,000 employees and a significant number of registered accountants, indicating its capability to handle the company's audit needs [27][28] - The firm has purchased professional liability insurance with a cumulative compensation limit of 900 million yuan, ensuring investor protection [28] Group 3 - The company intends to use up to 10 billion yuan of idle funds for entrusted wealth management, focusing on low to medium-risk products with high safety and liquidity [39][40] - This strategy aims to improve fund utilization efficiency and generate additional returns for the company and its shareholders [50] - The entrusted wealth management plan is also subject to approval by the shareholders' meeting [39] Group 4 - The company has approved a plan to conduct hedging activities, including commodity and foreign exchange hedging, with a maximum margin of 4 billion yuan for commodity hedging and 4.7 billion yuan for foreign exchange hedging [55][60] - The hedging activities are designed to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations in raw materials and foreign exchange rates, which are critical for the company's operations [55][56] - The hedging plan will also require approval from the shareholders' meeting [63] Group 5 - The company will hold its third extraordinary shareholders' meeting on August 14, 2025, to discuss the aforementioned proposals and other relevant matters [72][73] - The meeting will be conducted in accordance with applicable laws and regulations, ensuring transparency and compliance [73][81] - Shareholders will have the opportunity to vote on the proposed resolutions during the meeting [81][84]

Group 1 - The commodity futures market experienced a sudden downturn, with popular varieties like coking coal and lithium carbonate hitting their daily limit down [1] - The market cooling has prompted investors to return to a more rational mindset after a period of excessive enthusiasm [1] - The series of risk control measures implemented by futures exchanges is the primary reason for the recent price corrections, effectively curbing overheated market trading [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy expectations have led to high market anticipation for the rise in industrial products, but simplistic comparisons to past reforms may be misleading [1][2] - The "anti-involution" focus is primarily on mid- and downstream industries, addressing disordered price wars that have resulted in profit and quality declines [2] - While the "anti-involution" initiative may benefit certain futures varieties in the medium to long term, short-term price increases have already exceeded fundamental influences [2]

Core Insights - The training program aims to enhance risk management capabilities of enterprises in Inner Mongolia, particularly in coal chemical and soft commodity industries, by utilizing the futures market [1] - The participation rate of listed companies in hedging activities has steadily increased, with 1,503 companies announcing hedging plans in 2024, representing a participation rate of 28.6% [1][2] - The volatility in commodity prices and intense industry competition are driving companies to improve their risk management strategies [2] Group 1: Training and Participation - The training session was attended by nearly a hundred representatives from state-owned enterprises and listed companies in Inner Mongolia, focusing on practical paths for utilizing the futures market for risk management [1] - Companies like Huayou Cobalt, Yuntianhua, and COFCO have integrated futures tools into their overall development strategies, establishing mature risk management models [1][2] - The number of industry clients participating in trading specific commodities, such as soybean meal and glass, has increased by over 20% in 2024 [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Solutions - Companies in sectors like chemicals, grain and oil, and livestock often operate near breakeven points, making raw material cost management critical for survival [2] - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer Co. has successfully implemented hedging strategies, achieving a profit of 50 yuan per ton through futures contracts [2] - The "five-in-one" methodology for integrating business and finance in hedging practices was proposed to address challenges in applying hedge accounting [3] Group 3: Market and Regulatory Environment - The futures market is recognized as a professional platform for risk management, with a comprehensive system of commodity futures and options covering key sectors of the economy [4] - Inner Mongolia has 29 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 786.88 billion yuan, but only 6 companies, or 20.69%, are engaged in hedging activities, which is below the national average [4] - Local regulatory bodies are working with exchanges to enhance the utilization of futures tools among enterprises to promote high-quality development of the capital market [4] Group 4: Feedback and Future Directions - Attendees expressed that the training deepened their understanding of the futures market's functions and they plan to explore hedging models tailored to their business needs [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai NAR Industrial Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 972.18 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 4.10% increase compared to the same period last year, while net profit surged by 79.15% to 114.20 million yuan, driven by strategic overseas expansion and effective risk management measures [6][12]. Group 1: Risk Management - The company is addressing geopolitical instability risks, particularly from the US-China trade war, by enhancing supply chain integration and expanding into markets in South America, the Middle East, and Africa [1]. - To mitigate the impact of domestic and international economic fluctuations, the company has established overseas subsidiaries to counteract anti-dumping policies and has improved logistics and delivery channels in response to conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war [1]. - The company employs a pricing adjustment mechanism and hedging tools to manage foreign exchange risks, thereby stabilizing its financial performance [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 74.20 million yuan, up 17.60% from the previous year, with basic earnings per share increasing by 78.95% to 0.34 yuan [6][12]. - Total assets rose by 6.09% to 2.71 billion yuan, while net assets attributable to shareholders increased significantly [6][12]. - The company reported a significant increase in research and development expenses, which rose by 34.31% to 58.20 million yuan, reflecting its commitment to innovation [12][13]. Group 3: Business Overview - The company specializes in precision coating materials, digital printing materials, automotive protective films, and electronic functional films, with a focus on expanding into hydrogen energy materials [12]. - The sales strategy includes both direct sales and ODM (Original Design Manufacturer), with a strong emphasis on brand development and marketing networks across China and internationally [9][10]. - The automotive protective film segment is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increasing demand from both the aftermarket and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) [12][10]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company has established a robust quality control system certified by multiple international standards, enhancing its product competitiveness [8]. - It has developed a comprehensive marketing network with over 200 brand agents in China and exports to over 90 countries, ensuring a stable market presence [9]. - The company is investing in digital transformation and smart manufacturing to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs [11].

Core Points - The company is holding its third extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 to discuss important matters related to its operations and financial strategies [1][2][3] Meeting Procedures - Shareholders must sign in upon arrival and present valid identification and authorization documents if attending on behalf of others [1][2] - Late arrivals will not be counted in the voting unless approved by the meeting's working group [2] - All attendees have the right to speak, consult, and vote, and must respect the meeting's order and the rights of other shareholders [2][3] - Voting will be conducted through a combination of on-site and online methods, with specific rules regarding the validity of votes [3] Agenda Items - The meeting will review three proposals, including: 1. A proposal to provide guarantees for subsidiaries with a total amount not exceeding 2.37 billion yuan [6][7] 2. A proposal for conducting hedging activities in 2025, with a total margin and premium not exceeding 485.6 million yuan [8][9] 3. A proposal to terminate the construction project in Luntai County due to operational feasibility concerns [9][10] Legal and Organizational Aspects - The company has appointed a law firm to witness the meeting and provide legal opinions [3] - The company reserves the right to refuse entry to unauthorized individuals and to maintain order during the meeting [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved an increase in the limits for its commodity futures and options hedging business to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations on its production and operating costs [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Purpose - The primary objective of the company's commodity futures hedging business is to reduce the uncertainty caused by fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly for products like silver nitrate and lithium iron phosphate, which are increasingly in demand due to the growth of the domestic new energy industry [2][3]. 2. Transaction Amounts - The maximum balance for margin and premiums for the hedging business has been increased from RMB 50 million to RMB 80 million, and the maximum contract value held on any trading day has been raised from RMB 500 million to RMB 600 million [2][3][4]. 3. Transaction Duration - The duration for the increased hedging business limits will remain effective for 12 months from the date of approval by the shareholders' meeting [3][4]. 4. Transaction Methods - The hedging transactions will be limited to raw materials related to the company's production, including silver and lithium carbonate, utilizing various derivative contracts such as futures and options [4]. 5. Trading Markets - The trading will occur on recognized exchanges such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Guangzhou Futures Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange [4]. 6. Funding Sources - The funding for the hedging activities will come from the company's own funds [4]. 7. Approval Process - The increase in the hedging business limits was approved in the ninth meetings of the sixth board of directors and the sixth supervisory board, and it requires further approval from the shareholders' meeting [4][5]. 8. Risk Management Measures - The company will implement strict internal controls and risk management measures to mitigate potential risks associated with the hedging operations, including monitoring market conditions and ensuring compliance with trading regulations [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Jinlongyu (300999.SZ), referred to as "the Moutai of oil," fell short of market expectations, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2020, Jinlongyu achieved operating revenue of 194.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.001 billion yuan, up 11% [1][2]. - The company's Q4 revenue was 54.93 billion yuan, a 20.9% increase year-on-year, but net profit dropped to 911 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 52.53% [1][3]. - The average margin used for hedging transactions over recent years was around 1 billion yuan [1][5]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Jinlongyu's stock opened down over 13% on February 23, closing at 99.48 yuan per share, a decline of 9.5%, with a total market value of 539.3 billion yuan, resulting in a single-day loss of 56.6 billion yuan [1][4]. Hedging Impact - The decline in performance was primarily attributed to losses from hedging positions that had not been settled by year-end, affecting the reported earnings [5][6]. - Jinlongyu has historically used financial derivatives for hedging against price fluctuations in raw materials, which include soybeans, wheat, and rice [5][6]. Business Segments - Despite the challenges, Jinlongyu's core kitchen food business maintained strong growth, leveraging brand operations and expanding sales networks [7]. - The company has focused on promoting high-end products and adapting to consumer trends, resulting in increased sales of quality and nutritious products [7]. Asset Position - As of the end of 2020, Jinlongyu's total assets amounted to 179.18 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% increase from the beginning of the year, while equity attributable to shareholders rose by 28.9% to 82.53 billion yuan [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.