Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher on February 9, with an opening price of $4983.69 per ounce, a peak of $5060.37, a low of $4965.16, and a closing price of $5058.90 [1]. Economic Indicators - A survey by the New York Federal Reserve indicated that U.S. consumer expectations regarding inflation and the job market improved slightly in January, with the median inflation expectation for the next year at 3.1%, down from 3.4% in December [3]. - The probability of finding a new job within three months increased to approximately 46%, while the perceived likelihood of job loss decreased [3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates was supported by signs of stability in the labor market, with policymakers indicating that recent rate cuts would support the labor market while keeping rates sufficiently high to exert downward pressure on inflation [3]. Geopolitical Developments - Following an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. advised vessels flying the American flag to avoid Iranian waters, highlighting the risks associated with maritime navigation in the region [4]. - The U.S. Department of Defense reported the interception of an oil tanker linked to Venezuela, indicating an expansion of efforts to combat illegal oil transport globally [5]. - Mexico has suspended oil shipments to Cuba to avoid potential retaliation from Washington, as it had become the largest oil supplier to Cuba following U.S. sanctions on Venezuela [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by March is 17.7%, with an 82.3% chance of maintaining current rates [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a slight upward trend, with a daily close above key moving average support levels, although short-term indicators suggested potential for a pullback [9][10]. - The market is advised to maintain a cautious trading strategy, balancing between long and short positions [11].

但力度有限，短期来看，这些都缺乏实质性依据，只是短线的预期压力。日内将关注美国12月零售销售月率、美国11月商业库存月率等数据，市场预期将 利好金价，故此，日内操作将继续保持逢低支撑做多为主。 另外，本周将迎来美国1月失业率、美国1月季调后非农就业人口(万人)，以及美国1月未季调CPI年率和月率等数据，根据上周公布的数据结果和市场预期 来看，大概率将整体利好金价，故此，本周操作上，依然偏向低多看涨为主。就算最终结果利空金价，也是震荡波动为主，所以，做多为主的问题不大。 张尧浠：数据预期打压美元偏弱、金价保持低多看涨为主 上交易日周一(2月9日)：国际黄金高开后反弹收涨，受周末地缘局势升级推动，以及对于本周将公布的重磅数据的预期，美元指数先行走低，支撑金价维 持在中轨上方，并有所突破10日均线阻力，但需进一步收阳持稳多头动力才能进一步走强，否则将仍有再度回撤至中轨或30日均线支撑的调整需求，不 过，这也是再度的入场多单机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市高开于4987.98美元/盎司，先行走低收复缺口，并录得日内低点4964.04美元，之后反弹回升，并陷入区间震荡波动，但美盘后半 段，多头再度发力，于盘尾录得日内高点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [10][12]. Core Views - The demand for copper and aluminum has weakened as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to stable prices in these metals [6][9]. - The gold market is supported by the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts, which are expected to continue throughout the year [10]. - The report highlights a tightening supply for copper, which is expected to support prices [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) has shown a performance of +3.3% over 1 month, +24.2% over 3 months, and +102.0% over 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3]. 2. Price and Inventory Data - Copper prices: LME copper closed at $12,900 per ton, down 4.02% from January 30, while SHFE copper closed at ¥99,810 per ton, down 3.26% [6]. - Aluminum prices: Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices are at ¥23,110 per ton, down ¥1,530 from January 30 [8]. - Inventory levels: LME copper inventory is at 183,275 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 8,300 tons, while SHFE copper inventory is at 248,911 tons, up 15,907 tons [6]. 3. Downstream Demand - The operating rate for domestic refined copper rod production is 69.07%, down 0.47 percentage points, while the operating rate for aluminum profiles is 36.0%, down 8.3 percentage points [8][9]. - The report notes that as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream processing enterprises are beginning to shut down, leading to a decline in demand [9]. 4. Recommendations for Individual Stocks - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold International [12]. - In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining [12]. - For aluminum, recommended stocks include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12]. - In the tin sector, recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are influenced by rising market risk aversion due to political changes in the UK and weak employment data expectations in the US, alongside a significant probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in June [5][12]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - On February 10, gold and silver experienced significant volatility, with spot gold dropping over 0.4% and briefly falling below $5000 per ounce, while silver saw a decline of over 2% [6][12]. - On February 9, both gold and silver generally closed higher, indicating recent upward trends prior to the current downturn [3][8]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - On February 9, all three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.04% at 50135.87 points, the S&P 500 rising 0.47% to 6964.82 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.9% to 23238.67 points [3][8]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.12%, with individual stocks like Wanwu Xingsheng and Century Interconnect gaining over 6%, while stocks like New Oriental and Li Auto saw declines of over 3% [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - Market risk aversion is heightened due to expectations of weak US employment data and political instability in the UK, which has led to increased prices in international precious metal futures [5][12]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that current interest rates are appropriate and acknowledged some pressure signs in the job market, while the National Economic Council Director Hassett projected a decline in US job growth numbers in the coming months without indicating economic weakness [12]. - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 17.7%, with an 82.3% chance of maintaining current rates. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 32.4%, and by June, it exceeds 50% [12].

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a strong rebound on February 9, with all three major indices closing higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 50,135 points for the first time, setting a new historical high. The Nasdaq rose nearly 1%, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.47%, indicating a notable improvement in market sentiment [1]. Technology Sector - The technology sector was the primary driver of this rebound, with Oracle's stock surging by 9.64%, marking its largest intraday gain since December of the previous year. Davidson Investment Bank upgraded Oracle's stock rating from "neutral" to "buy," reflecting renewed market optimism towards AI-related stocks [3]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.42%, with notable gains in individual stocks such as AMD and Broadcom, which both increased by over 3%. Nvidia rose by 2.5%, Microsoft by 3.13%, Meta by 2.41%, and Tesla by 1.51% [4][5]. Corporate Financing - Alphabet, Google's parent company, plans to raise $20 billion through a bond issuance, exceeding the initial estimate of $15 billion. The funds will primarily be allocated to enhance AI investments, which has positively influenced market sentiment [4]. Precious Metals and Commodities - The precious metals market also saw gains, with London spot gold surpassing $5,000 per ounce, increasing by over 2%. COMEX gold futures reported $5,079 per ounce, up by 1.99%. London spot silver rose by over 7%, with COMEX silver futures increasing by over 8%, nearing $83.50 per ounce [7][8]. - International oil prices also rose, with WTI crude oil near-month contracts increasing by 1.27% to $64.36 per barrel, and Brent crude oil near-month contracts rising by 1.45% to $69.04 per barrel [8]. Economic Data and Geopolitical Factors - Investors are awaiting key economic data releases, including US employment data for January and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, which may provide insights into inflation trends and influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [9]. - The expiration of the US-Russia New START treaty on February 5 has created geopolitical uncertainty, impacting market sentiment. The lack of new agreements on strategic arms reduction between the US and Russia is also a concern for investors [9].

Market Performance - On February 9, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a record high [1] - The Nasdaq index rose by 0.9% and the S&P 500 index increased by 0.47% [1] Technology Sector - Major US tech stocks mostly saw gains, with the Wind US Technology Seven Giants Index rising by 1.02% [2] - Notable individual stock performances included Microsoft up over 3%, Nvidia and META up over 2%, and Tesla up over 1%, while Apple fell over 1% [2] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks also experienced gains, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing by 1.42% [2] - Key performers included Supermicro and Broadcom, both up over 3%, Applied Materials up over 2%, and TSMC up over 1% [2] Commodity Market - Precious metals continued their rebound, with London spot gold surpassing $5000 per ounce, rising over 2% during the session [4] - As of February 10, London spot gold was reported at $5062.172 per ounce, up 1.92%, while COMEX gold futures were at $5079 per ounce, up 1.99% [4][5] - London spot silver and COMEX silver futures both rose over 7%, with prices at $83.335 and $82.795 per ounce, respectively [4][5] Oil Market - International crude oil futures prices increased, with both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rising over 1% [6] - The US advised commercial ships to avoid Iranian waters, highlighting the geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil supply route [6]

Investors will get twin reports this week on employment and consumer prices. They'll help set the stage for when the Fed cuts interest rates this year — if it reduces them at all. ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, indicated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement balance sheet reduction quickly, even with a new chairperson, due to a weak labor market recovery and support for further rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been reduced by approximately $2.4 trillion since the expansion during the financial crisis and pandemic [1] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that the Fed may need one or two more rate cuts to address labor market weaknesses, as rising prices are eroding wage income and job opportunities are scarce [2] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. was 4.4% in December, with expectations for January's non-farm payroll data to show a stable unemployment rate, but a low job growth figure could heighten rate cut expectations [3] - The upcoming release of the January core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is critical for assessing inflation pressures, with HSBC predicting a year-on-year increase of 2.6% for January [3] - Market institutions have noted that a combination of weak employment and strong inflation could pose significant risks to the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver surged sharply on February 9, driven by a political crisis in the UK and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1][9]. Precious Metals - As of the latest update, spot gold was priced at $5040.88 per ounce, reflecting a 1.5% increase, while spot silver reached $81.601 per ounce, with an increase of nearly 5% [2][9]. - The London gold price was reported at $5040.880, up by $74.270 (1.50%), and London silver at $81.601, up by $3.821 (4.91%) [10]. - COMEX gold was priced at $5057.4, up by $77.6 (1.56%), and COMEX silver at $81.215, up by $4.320 (5.62%) [10]. - Domestic futures markets opened higher, with Shanghai gold and silver following international market trends [1][9]. Economic Indicators - Market expectations are leaning towards a weak upcoming employment report from the U.S., which has heightened the anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [2][10]. - The Director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, confirmed the expectation of lower employment data, which contributed to a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index [2][10]. UK Political Crisis - A political crisis in the UK emerged as Tim Allen, the communications director for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, resigned on February 9, marking the second high-profile resignation from the Prime Minister's office within 24 hours [4][12]. - This political turmoil has negatively impacted the UK financial markets, with the FTSE 100 index declining by 0.26%, and the British pound dropping 0.5% against the euro, reaching its lowest level since January 22 [4][12].

2月9日：黄金市场上周：国际黄金深度触底回升收取长下影线垂线形态，相对于前周的跳水倒垂形态， 有着相反的预期，这也暗示对于前周的倒垂看空回落，也有利空出尽的迹象，那么，对于后市来讲，后 市要么维持持续的震荡调整行情，要么再度走强攀升，刷新高点。所以，当下，耐心比交易更重要。 具体走势上，金价自周初低开于4792.00美元/盎司，先行跳水走低，录得当周低点4402.14美元，之后触 底回升，展现出一定的止跌转看涨的预期，但在反弹至周三时段录得当周高点5091.81美元后，未能持 稳突破阻力，多头有所获利了结，使得周四再度回落，周五又再度跌至周开盘价附近，但最终再度触底 回升买盘入场，令周线收于4960.86美元，周振幅689.67美元，相对于前周收盘价4865.11美元，收涨 95.75美元，涨幅1.97%。 影响上，受到前周的跳水卖盘压力，以及地缘局势的缓和，关税协议的达成，而先行跳水走低，但由于 缓和后的地缘局势又其摩擦，美联储理事米兰：今年需降息略高于一个百分点等，基本面有所转强，推 动金价触底回升走强； 之后，由于获利了结，地缘局势再反转缓和，芝商所继续上调黄金、白银期货保证金比例，阿根廷宣布 与特朗普 ...