Economic Outlook - Barclays has significantly raised its US economic growth forecast for this year to 0.5% from a previous estimate of -0.3%, and for next year to 1.6% from 1.5% [1] - Goldman Sachs has also increased its 2025 US economic growth forecast to 1% from a previous estimate of 0.5%, while reducing the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 45% to 35% [2] - JPMorgan's economists have lowered the recession risk for the US economy to below 50%, with a new growth forecast of 0.6% for 2025, up from 0.2% [3] Market Sentiment - Following the easing of US-China trade tensions, major Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have shifted their outlook on US equities from bearish to bullish [2] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the S&P 500 index to 6500 from 6200 [2] Federal Reserve Policy - The expectation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has diminished, with Goldman Sachs now predicting three rate cuts starting in December instead of July [1] - Barclays anticipates only one rate cut in 2025, with three additional cuts of 25 basis points in the following year, a change from their previous expectation of two cuts this year [1] Eurozone Outlook - Barclays has revised its Eurozone growth forecast to flat (0% growth) from a previous estimate of a 0.2% contraction, while still expecting a brief technical recession in late 2025 [3][4]

美债收益率欧洲早盘走低，延续周四跌势 金十数据5月16日讯，美债收益率在欧洲早盘下跌，延续周四的趋势，因货币市场在本周疲弱的CPI数 据出炉后继续押注美联储降息。法国兴业银行利率策略师在一份报告中表示："市场继续消化美联储的 降息预期。"话虽如此，美债收益率曲线应会趋陡，因投资者消化期限溢价上升的影响，即更多收益率 投资者寻求持有长期美债，而非短期美债。"期限溢价可能会继续扩大，美联储将在今年晚些时候降 息。" ...

City Index&FOREX.com：金价短期或跌至3000美元，但调整可能带来买入机会 新华财经北京5月16日电（吴郑思）周四（5月15日）国际金价盘中大幅反弹，日内波动超100美元。不 过，金价的反弹走势在周五亚洲交易时段暂缓，截至发稿时，现货黄金回落至3210美元／盎司附近，日 内跌1%左右。以下是部分机构观点： 紫金天风期货：黄金回升可能需要更长的时间 建信期货：黄金波动性上升但上涨趋势良好 瑞达期货：短期金价或维持承压格局银价受金价联动呈偏弱态势 Incrementum AG：黄金的长期牛市还在早期 机构具体分析如下： 紫金天风期货在最新周报中称，尽管从美国经济基本面来看，经济衰退担忧的减弱使得货币市场的降息 预期回调至56bps，与美联储预测基本一致，利率逻辑对黄金价格的利空影响较为有限。然而，随着贸 易战焦虑的缓解这一信用逻辑的逆风因素可能持续发酵，黄金价格的反弹回升可能会需要更长的时间。 建信期货在日报中称，贸易和地缘局势暂缓提振市场风险偏好并削弱黄金的避险需求，而美国财政扩张 前景也抑制美联储降息预期并推高美债利率，中东和东欧地缘政治风险缓和前景则打压油价以及黄金的 抗通胀需求，三重打压 ...

当地时间5月15日，鲍威尔在第二届Thomas Laubach研究会议上致开幕词。鲍威尔表示，美国可能正在 进入一个供应冲击更频繁、持续时间也更持久的时期，这对经济和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑战。 北京时间5月13日晚间，美国劳工统计局公布了4月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告，其中显示，美国4月 CPI同比上涨2.3%，为2021年2月以来新低，低于市场预期的2.4%；4月CPI环比上涨0.2%，低于市场预 期的0.3%，前置为-0.4%。 周四（5月15日），国际金价上演V型反转，亚洲早盘时段现货黄金曾急挫近2%至3120.64美元/盎司， 但随后多方力量强势反扑，推动金价实现单日近2%的涨幅，最终收报3239.58美元/盎司。延续此轮涨 势，周五（5月16日）亚市早盘现货黄金持续攀升，成功突破3250美元关键位并触及3252.05美元高位。 ETF方面，黄金ETF基金(159937) 跳空高开近2%，成交额已超2亿元，该ETF近一年累计涨幅超31%。 市场分析显示，本轮反弹主要受两大因素驱动：其一，俄乌谈判延期至周五，削弱了市场对冲突快速和 解的预期，刺激避险资金重新涌入黄金市场；其二，美国最新经济指标低于预 ...

贵金属日报：波动较大 中长期维持看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月16日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属价格呈现反弹，10Y美债收益率回落伴随美指回调利多贵金属价格。降息预期方面，美联储 9月降息预期微升，昨晚公布的美PPI大幅低于预期，以及工业产出不及预期。国内黄金ETF昨日明显流 入，其中华安黄金ETF份额从5月14日的81.5亿份，回升至82.07亿份。最终黄金2506合约收报3243.9美 元/盎司，+1.74%；美白银2507合约收报于32.79美元/盎司，+1.07%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报 739.82元/克，-3.2%；SHFE白银2506合约收8008元/千克，-2.34% 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 8.3%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为63.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为34.2%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为2.6%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率26.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为51.2%，累计降息50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices, which fell by 6% from April 22 to May 14, has raised concerns among investors and consumers, despite a significant increase in gold purchases earlier in the year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold fund transaction volume reached approximately 190 billion, with a 6% price drop during the same period [1]. - Gold stocks experienced a more significant decline, dropping over 8% [1]. - Retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 11% year-on-year, with gold bar and coin purchases rising by 30% [3]. Group 2: Regional Disparities - Retail sales of gold and jewelry in Beijing grew by 29% year-on-year, while Guangzhou saw a 15% increase, both exceeding the national average [4]. - In contrast, Shanghai's retail sales for the same category declined by 9% [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced safe-haven demand, a stronger US dollar, decreased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, profit-taking by speculators, and a slowdown in central bank gold purchases [6][10]. - Despite the current price drop, it remains above the levels seen in the first quarter, indicating that investors are not yet at a loss [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Research institutions express caution, noting an increase in hedging by gold producers and a decline in recycled gold after eight consecutive quarters of growth, suggesting a higher likelihood of price adjustments [12]. - However, there is optimism regarding the long-term support for gold prices due to the ongoing contraction of US dollar credit [12].

周四（5月15日），现货黄金延续跌势，亚洲交易时段一路下探，最低触及3120美元区域，创下自4月10日以来的新低。中美贸易摩擦缓和引发资金从避险资 产流出，而美联储降息预期收窄则进一步对无收益的黄金形成压制。 消息面解读：此次金价下跌的直接导火索是全球贸易紧张局势的缓和。美国和中国同意大幅降低关税，并宣布在制定细节期间暂停征收关税90天，这一重大 利好消息极大地提振了市场风险偏好。技术面显示，金价已跌破关键支撑位，MACD维持负值，暗示下行趋势尚未结束。若美国PPI数据强于预期，且鲍威 尔在讲话中表现出鹰派立场，将可能促使金价进一步下探至3075美元甚至3000美元心理关口。贸易紧张缓和和美国经济韧性可能持续抑制避险需求，进一步 限制金价反弹空间。 短线级别最后一波下跌，途中已经经过数次震荡调整，现在金价在3120附近再次出现反弹，反弹最高到达3153，我也在途中给予部分人继续做空的提示。现 在主要对小时线做个简短的分析，金价在大跌之后一定是需要去修复的，一种是震荡调整修复，另一种是反弹修复，在这种极限下跌的走势下，黄金不具备 反弹的条件，所以3120这里的反弹秦氏金升觉得只是部分空单选择获利抛盘导致，所以后 ...

黄金周四（5月15日）早盘小幅上涨3193附近受阻转跌，到欧盘前最低跌至3120附近。欧盘止跌企稳慢涨，美盘延续上涨，收盘直接收在高位3240附近，日 线收出一根长下影光头大阳线。 一、基本面 1、美国经济数据疲软：4月生产者物价指数（PPI）意外下降0.5%，远低于预期的增长0.2%；零售销售增速从3月的1.7%断崖式下滑至0.1%；制造业产出下 降0.4%，远超预期的0.2%降幅。一系列数据表明美国经济放缓，市场对美联储降息预期升温。这使得美债收益率大幅下跌，10年期美债收益率周四暴跌11 个基点至4.435%，2年期收益率重挫9.2个基点至3.961%。同时，美元指数下跌0.2%至100.82附近，实际利率下行，10年期TIPS收益率跌至1.8%下方。黄金作 为非孳息资产，利率降低增加了其吸引力，经济数据疲软和美元走弱为金价上涨提供了动力。 2、地缘政治风险升温：俄乌局势出现戏剧性转折，普京拒绝与泽连斯基会面，仅派出"二级官员代表团"，泽连斯基怒斥，和谈推迟至周五，实际陷入僵 局。特朗普表态"在我和普京会面之前，什么都不会发生"，美国务卿鲁比奥直言对会谈"期望不高"。此外，伊朗核协议谈判也陷入胶着，特朗 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a significant rebound, moving from a one-month low of $3120/oz to around $3220 following the release of key economic data from the US [2] - A perfect V-shaped reversal was noted in gold prices, with a critical level at $3200; if prices hold above this level, further upward movement is expected [3][5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on buying on dips around $3200 and targeting resistance levels at $3265-3675, while support is seen at $3225-3215 [5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The US EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 3.5 million barrels, raising concerns about supply exceeding demand, which led to a decline in oil prices [6] - The WTI crude oil price fell by $1.33 to $61.82 per barrel, reflecting market reactions to the inventory data and concerns over supply-demand mismatches [6] - Technical analysis indicates a downward trend for oil prices, with expectations of further declines towards the $50 mark, while short-term strategies recommend selling on rebounds [7]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the strengthening US dollar and the weakening US Treasury bonds is attributed to robust employment and inflation data, leading to a delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US added an average of 155,000 non-farm jobs over the past three months, with a low unemployment rate [1]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April decreased to 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI fell to 2.8% year-on-year [1]. - The Federal Reserve's recent meetings indicate a strong resilience in the US economy, with no immediate need for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve officials express that the current moderately restrictive policy rate is well-positioned to respond to economic changes [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may impact future inflation paths, but the labor market remains strong [2]. - The delay in interest rate cuts is putting pressure on US Treasury bonds [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Debt Supply - The introduction of the "Big, Beautiful Bill" is expected to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit, potentially leading to increased supply pressure on Treasury bonds [2]. - The ongoing supply pressure from rising budget deficits may further impact the bond market [2]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Tariff Impact - The current tariff policies may lead to a supply shock in the US, as the return of manufacturing is unlikely in the short term [3]. - The tightening of immigration policies could further increase service prices, contributing to inflation expectations [3]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - Short-term trading factors, such as the recovery of major stock indices, are negatively impacting the US bond market [4]. - The increase in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) supply and corporate bond issuance is contributing to rising bond yields [4]. - The current market dynamics suggest that a recovery in Treasury bond prices may require signals of economic weakness or earlier-than-expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4].