黄金周四（5月15日）早盘小幅上涨3193附近受阻转跌，到欧盘前最低跌至3120附近。欧盘止跌企稳慢涨，美盘延续上涨，收盘直接收在高位3240附近，日 线收出一根长下影光头大阳线。 一、基本面 1、美国经济数据疲软：4月生产者物价指数（PPI）意外下降0.5%，远低于预期的增长0.2%；零售销售增速从3月的1.7%断崖式下滑至0.1%；制造业产出下 降0.4%，远超预期的0.2%降幅。一系列数据表明美国经济放缓，市场对美联储降息预期升温。这使得美债收益率大幅下跌，10年期美债收益率周四暴跌11 个基点至4.435%，2年期收益率重挫9.2个基点至3.961%。同时，美元指数下跌0.2%至100.82附近，实际利率下行，10年期TIPS收益率跌至1.8%下方。黄金作 为非孳息资产，利率降低增加了其吸引力，经济数据疲软和美元走弱为金价上涨提供了动力。 2、地缘政治风险升温：俄乌局势出现戏剧性转折，普京拒绝与泽连斯基会面，仅派出"二级官员代表团"，泽连斯基怒斥，和谈推迟至周五，实际陷入僵 局。特朗普表态"在我和普京会面之前，什么都不会发生"，美国务卿鲁比奥直言对会谈"期望不高"。此外，伊朗核协议谈判也陷入胶着，特朗 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a significant rebound, moving from a one-month low of $3120/oz to around $3220 following the release of key economic data from the US [2] - A perfect V-shaped reversal was noted in gold prices, with a critical level at $3200; if prices hold above this level, further upward movement is expected [3][5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on buying on dips around $3200 and targeting resistance levels at $3265-3675, while support is seen at $3225-3215 [5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The US EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 3.5 million barrels, raising concerns about supply exceeding demand, which led to a decline in oil prices [6] - The WTI crude oil price fell by $1.33 to $61.82 per barrel, reflecting market reactions to the inventory data and concerns over supply-demand mismatches [6] - Technical analysis indicates a downward trend for oil prices, with expectations of further declines towards the $50 mark, while short-term strategies recommend selling on rebounds [7]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the strengthening US dollar and the weakening US Treasury bonds is attributed to robust employment and inflation data, leading to a delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US added an average of 155,000 non-farm jobs over the past three months, with a low unemployment rate [1]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April decreased to 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI fell to 2.8% year-on-year [1]. - The Federal Reserve's recent meetings indicate a strong resilience in the US economy, with no immediate need for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve officials express that the current moderately restrictive policy rate is well-positioned to respond to economic changes [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may impact future inflation paths, but the labor market remains strong [2]. - The delay in interest rate cuts is putting pressure on US Treasury bonds [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Debt Supply - The introduction of the "Big, Beautiful Bill" is expected to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit, potentially leading to increased supply pressure on Treasury bonds [2]. - The ongoing supply pressure from rising budget deficits may further impact the bond market [2]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Tariff Impact - The current tariff policies may lead to a supply shock in the US, as the return of manufacturing is unlikely in the short term [3]. - The tightening of immigration policies could further increase service prices, contributing to inflation expectations [3]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - Short-term trading factors, such as the recovery of major stock indices, are negatively impacting the US bond market [4]. - The increase in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) supply and corporate bond issuance is contributing to rising bond yields [4]. - The current market dynamics suggest that a recovery in Treasury bond prices may require signals of economic weakness or earlier-than-expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4].

换资前言： 4小时周期的表现现在有可能会中期筑底，经过白盘的下跌反弹，4小时中期布林开口，虽然暂时偏强， 但如果美盘连续反弹，站稳3200后，底部有连阳形态，破位5，10日均线，那么就有极大的可能会去 3235，所以，尾盘的黄金不要因为周三的下跌而惯性看跌，即使看跌也要观察3200得失。至于交易的 话，下方先关注3200可以尝试多，看3230的破位，破位3250。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上金晟 富建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注3250-365一线阻力，下方短期重点关注3193- 3200一线支撑，各位朋友一定要跟上节奏。要控制好仓位及止损问题、严格设止损，切勿抗单操作。具 体点位以盘中实时为主，欢迎前来体验，交流实时行情，进群关注实时单。 5.16黄金操作策略参考： 空单策略： 你见过凌晨四点的K线图吗？那不是熬夜，那是与财富的约会。现货黄金市场就像一面照妖镜，照出人 性的贪婪与恐惧，也照出强者的冷静与智慧。每一次波动都是机会在敲门——有人听成"爆仓警告"， 而你该听成"财富密码"。记住，市场从不同情眼泪，但它永远奖励那些在别人恐慌时果断出手的勇 者。别羡慕积存金玩家的岁月静好，真正的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its overall policy framework in response to significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks following the pandemic [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Framework Review - The Federal Reserve's "consensus statement" was first formalized in 2012, outlining its long-term goals and monetary policy strategy, which has remained unchanged to date [3]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) conducted its first public review of the consensus statement in 2019, committing to reassess the framework approximately every five years [3]. - Since 2020, the economic environment has changed significantly, prompting the Fed to evaluate its current framework, with results expected by August or September [3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Policy Implications - Post-pandemic, the rise in inflation-adjusted "real" interest rates may affect the components of the Fed's current framework [4]. - Higher real interest rates could indicate a greater likelihood of inflation instability compared to the 2010s, suggesting a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks [4]. - The Fed is also considering improvements to its formal policy communication, particularly regarding forecasts and uncertainty [4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, citing increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation [6]. - Recent data showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-on-year in April, the lowest increase since early 2021, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is expected to rise around 2.2% [6]. - Economists predict that the current moderation in inflation may not last, with expectations of price acceleration due to the impact of import tariffs [6].

当地时间5月15日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席第二届托马斯·劳巴赫研究会议并发表讲话。鲍威尔表示，正在调整其总体政策制定框架，以应对2020年疫情后通 胀和利率前景的重大变化。 为何调整？ 在发言中，鲍威尔首先回顾了美联储的"共识声明"的历史。 鲍威尔表示，2012年，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）首次将货币政策框架编纂成文，题为《长期目标和货币政策战略声明》（Statementon Longer-Long Term Goalsand Monetary Policy Strategy），即"共识声明"。至今该声明开头段落中的措辞从未改变，表明美联储对履行国会任务的承诺，并清楚地解释了美联 储正在做什么以及为什么这么做。这种明确性减少了不确定性，提高了货币政策的有效性，并增强了透明度和问责制。 在2019年，美联储对共识声明进行了第一次公开审核，并表示将大约每五年重复一次此类审核。重新评估经济的结构特征并与公众、从业者和学者就框架的表现进 行互动是适当的。 但鲍威尔表示，自2020年以来，经济环境已发生重大变化，美联储的评估将反映这些变化的考量。美联储于五年前采用当前框架，并于今年启动对该框架的评估。 但鲍威尔认为， ...

目期 日期 美元指数 美债2年期收益率 美债10年期收益率 NYMEX原油 美元/人民币中间价 VIX 标普500 18. 22 2025/5/14 7. 20 2025/5/13 100. 98 4. 02 4. 49 5886. 55 63. 63 村年/北 率/ 版面 7. 20 101. 81 4. 45 2025/5/13 2025/5/12 3.98 18. 39 5844. 19 61.96 涨跌幅 涨跌幅 -0. 05% -0. 82% 1. 01% 0. 90% -0. 92% 0. 72% 2. 70% 1,000 16,000 3,700 120 110 3,200 950 15,000 100 90 2,700 14,000 图表分析 13,000 12.000 DMEX全银比价(收益价) 1、美国4月0P|同比增长2.3%，为自2021年2月以来的最低水平，预期 2.4%，前值 2.4%，有DP1环比增长0.2%，预期0.3%，前值-0.4%，美国4月核心9P|同比增长 工程消息 2.8%, 为自2021年春季通胀爆发以来的最低速度;预期 2.8%, 前值 2.8%; 4月核心CPI ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent decline in gold prices has sparked discussions about future trends, with prices dropping below $3200 per ounce, marking an over 8% decrease from April highs [1][2] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Price - The rapid increase in gold prices in early April was driven by escalating U.S. tariffs, leading to a "triple hit" on assets, which highlighted a contraction in dollar credit [2] - Market speculation intensified during this period, accumulating price risks, while subsequent economic data from the U.S. indicated a slowdown, delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions on May 12 boosted market risk appetite, prompting a shift from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, further exacerbating gold's price adjustment [2][6] Group 2: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations of inflation rising alongside economic downturns, creating a stagflation scenario [3] - The ongoing weakness in the U.S. economy and the continuation of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle are seen as core factors supporting gold prices in the medium to long term [3][5] - The trend of de-globalization and the ongoing expansion of U.S. debt are also contributing to a long-term bull market for gold, as dollar credit continues to contract [3] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - In April, global gold trading volumes surged, with an average daily trading volume of $441 billion, reflecting a 48% month-over-month increase [4] - Central bank demand remains a critical support factor for gold prices, driven by the diversification of global reserves and the decline in dollar and U.S. Treasury credit [5] - Investment demand for gold is bolstered by insufficient internal growth dynamics in the global economy and the resulting safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic instability [5] Group 4: Short-term Investment Strategy - Current sentiment around gold is relatively weak, with potential further declines if prices drop below $3100 per ounce, possibly testing critical support levels around $2950 to $3000 [7] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains bullish, suggesting that recent price adjustments present buying opportunities for investors [7] Group 5: Future Price Projections - Institutions like UBS predict that gold prices could reach $3500 per ounce by the end of the year, with potential scenarios suggesting prices could rise to $3800 per ounce under favorable conditions [8] - The long-term performance of gold is primarily driven by the U.S. dollar and real interest rates, with expectations of continued Fed rate cuts supporting a bullish outlook for gold [10]

等待驱动，盘面窄幅波动 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 15 日 【冠通研究】 【策略分析】 沪铜今日高开低走日内一路下行。近日宏观消息方面，中美会谈超预期提振了市场 的风险偏好水平，4 月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.3%。数据显示，剔除波动 较大的食品和能源价格后，4 月美国核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%，目前看通胀水平不及预 期，强化了市场对于美联储降息的预期，支撑铜价上行。基本面情况来看，供应端偏紧 格局依然显现， 矿端偏紧格局为市场一致预期，同时冶炼厂成本偏高。截止 5 月 9 日， 现货粗炼费(TC)-43.6 美元/干吨,现货精炼费(RC)-4.37 美分/磅，冶炼厂加工费继续扩 大负值，硫酸利润弥补少量亏损，但冶炼厂成本压力明显，但铜产量仍逆势上涨。美铜 库存大幅度拉升，导致其他地区供应偏紧显现，目前关税不确定性存在，美国虹吸铜仍 在继续，国内交易所显性库存连续去化，但去化幅度有所收窄。需求方面，下游对高价 有抵触心理。4 月线缆企业开工率达 86.3%，环比+3.2%，5 月订单预计环比增长 8-10%， 下游需求仍显韧性，关税政策缓和叠加国内增量政策，市场需求有所提振，但五月 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, trading around $3133, following a drop of over 2% on Wednesday, reaching a low of $3167.94 per ounce, the lowest since April 10, closing at $3177.32 per ounce. This decline was attributed to increased risk appetite due to improved trade sentiment, leading investors to exit the gold market [1] - The US dollar index rebounded, rising 0.08% to 101.04, while US Treasury yields reached a six-week high, with the 10-year yield surpassing the critical 4.5% level at 4.536%. Changes in interest rate expectations have diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased to 74%, down from earlier expectations of a potential cut in July [1] Trade Relations - The immediate catalyst for the drop in gold prices was the easing of global trade tensions, with the US and China agreeing to significantly reduce tariffs and pausing tariff imposition for 90 days. This positive news boosted market risk appetite, leading to a rise in major Wall Street indices as investors shifted from safe-haven assets to higher-risk investments. President Trump's comments about potential agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea further bolstered market confidence [2] Geopolitical Risks - Despite the easing trade tensions, geopolitical risks remain. Trade negotiations between the EU and the US are progressing slowly, with significant differences in agreement scope. The EU's trade commissioner has stated that they will not accept an unfair agreement under pressure. The US has imposed 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, threatening to expand the scope of tariffs. The $9.5 trillion trade and investment relationship between the US and EU faces serious challenges, which could potentially revive gold's safe-haven demand [4] Market Dynamics - The recent adjustment in the gold market reflects both improved risk sentiment and profit-taking by investors following previous gains. The price of gold is likely to remain volatile due to the interplay of trade dynamics, monetary policy, and economic data. Investors should pay attention to the upcoming US April PPI data and retail sales figures, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding rate cut expectations [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold recorded a significant bearish candle, reinforcing a short-term bearish structure. The price tested a one-month low around $3167 before stabilizing, indicating potential further declines. Traders should monitor the support level at $3150, with a risk of dropping to around $3060. In the 1-4 hour timeframe, the price has extended its decline after breaking below $3200, with ongoing tests around the $3130 level [6]