每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——特朗普的"完美人选"颠覆美联储？解码凯文·沃什的"新政构想"：左手放水 右手抽水，要靠AI驯服通胀，拒做美债"大买家" （记者 张明双） 每经AI快讯，吉宏股份2月4日晚间发布公告称，截至本公告日，庄浩累计质押股数为2200万股，占其 所持股份比例为33.08%。庄澍累计质押股数为1120万股，占其所持股份比例为33.6%。 ...

Group 1 - The company, Xuanji Information, announced that its 11th meeting of the 6th board of directors was held on February 4, 2026, via telecommunication voting [1] - The meeting reviewed documents including a proposal to amend the company's articles of association [1] Group 2 - The article discusses Kevin Warsh's new policy ideas, which suggest a dual approach of monetary easing and tightening to manage inflation [1] - Warsh emphasizes the use of AI to control inflation and expresses reluctance to become a major buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds [1]

米兰上周对美联储维持利率不变的决定投下反对票，主张降息25个基点。2025年年底，美联储多次实施 每次25个基点的降息时，米兰也持异议，主张推行幅度更大的50个基点的降息。 "当我观察基本通胀时，我并没有看到经济里存在很多非常强的价格压力，"米兰说。"我也看不到那种 需要货币政策作出反应的、很明显的供需失衡。因此我认为，我们把利率维持得过高了，这主要是因为 我们衡量通胀方式的一些技术性因素，而不是实际价格压力本身。"编辑/宋祉奇 米兰2月2日在福克斯商业频道表示："我很可能希望看到，全年累计降息略高于1个百分点。" 来源：商业周刊 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰表示，经济中并不存在强劲的价格压力，意味着他所称的仍处于"限制性"的利 率水平需要在今年再次下调。 ...

在近期全球黄金市场剧烈波动的背景下，管理着约30亿美元资产的富达国际(Fidelity International)基金经理乔治.埃夫斯塔索普洛斯(George Efstathopoulos)， 在这种贵金属遭遇四十年来最大跌幅的几天前，大幅减持了黄金持仓。如今，他正打算再度买入。 尽管由于对货币贬值、美联储独立性以及地缘政治紧张局势的担忧引发避险需求，推动金价升至历史新高，但这位基金经理仍选择抛售，使其成功规避了由 于市场极度超买而引发的剧烈调整。 周三，黄金现货价格一度攀升2.8%至每盎司5080美元上方，此前一个交易日跳涨超过6%。该金属于1月29日触及每盎司5595.47美元的历史新高。由于在历 史性价格暴跌之后出现了逢低买入者，这种贵金属已连续两天反弹。 "若黄金市场再度出现5%至7%的回调，我将大举买入，"埃夫斯塔西奥普洛斯周二接受采访时表示，"当前市场已挤出大量泡沫，黄金中期结构性上涨趋势依 然稳固。 埃夫斯塔西奥普洛斯在富达国际协助管理规模约30亿美元的收益与增长策略组合。他指出，此前推动金价创历史新高的核心因素仍未消退。"通胀持续呈现 顽固态势，"他分析道，并补充称美元走弱是另一关键驱动因素 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Kevin Warsh's appointment as the next Federal Reserve Chair, questioning whether he will adopt a hawkish stance on inflation or align with political pressures from Trump [1][2]. Group 1: Warsh's Economic Philosophy - Warsh is characterized as a typical "hard currency" central banker, emphasizing the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence and the dangers of excessive monetary policy intervention [3]. - In a 2010 speech, Warsh outlined four key points regarding the Fed's responsibilities, including the need to resist becoming the ultimate rescuer and the importance of maintaining a reputation for historical significance rather than political expediency [3]. - His recent criticisms of the Fed's performance suggest a continuity of his hardline stance, particularly regarding the need for price stability and the dangers of fiscal dominance over monetary policy [4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Implications - The article raises concerns about Warsh's potential to act as a political tool, shifting his stance on monetary policy based on the ruling party, which could lead to unpredictable economic risks [2]. - Trump's choice of Warsh, despite his own fiscal dominance, suggests a complex relationship where Warsh's criticisms of the Fed's expansion may align with Trump's agenda [5][6]. - The potential for Warsh to adopt a more lenient view on inflation due to technological advancements raises questions about the risks associated with such a shift, especially given the current economic context of high fiscal deficits [6]. Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - Concerns persist regarding Warsh's willingness to defend Trump's policies, which may lead to a scenario where fiscal expansion and deregulation undermine monetary discipline, potentially sowing the seeds for a financial crisis [8]. - The article warns that the combination of short-term political considerations and long-term economic stability could heighten systemic risks within the financial system [9]. - The need for a Federal Reserve Chair who can resist political pressures is emphasized, with the current chair, Powell, being recognized for his ability to maintain independence [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Duan Yongping has sold shares of China Shenhua and purchased shares of Kweichow Moutai, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [1][19] - On January 27, Duan sold 1.5 million shares of China Shenhua in three transactions at prices of 43.15, 43.28, and 43.43 HKD, with total proceeds of approximately 65 million HKD [1][19] - On the same day, he bought 77,194 shares of Kweichow Moutai at prices ranging from 1329.72 to 1331.00 CNY, with a total investment of around 100 million CNY [1][19] Group 2 - Following the purchase, Kweichow Moutai's stock price surged over 12% in the following five trading days, reaching a latest price of 1524.18 CNY, resulting in a paper profit exceeding 10 million CNY for Duan [4][22] - Duan believes that the introduction of the iMoutai platform will significantly enhance the brand's market presence and consumer trust, effectively creating a new demand for Moutai [6][25] - He estimates that Moutai's daily production is around 250,000 bottles, and the iMoutai platform has intercepted 540 million abnormal behaviors monthly, indicating a strong demand and consumer interest [6][25] Group 3 - Duan suggests that Kweichow Moutai should consider annual price increases of 3% to 5% to align with inflation and market demand, as the brand has the capacity to raise prices without losing consumer interest [7][28] - There are concerns from the public regarding the impact of price increases on consumption rates, with some suggesting a more conservative increase of 1% [8][29] - Duan counters that a 1% increase is insufficient and that a moderate annual increase is preferable to sporadic larger hikes [8][29] Group 4 - The demand for Kweichow Moutai is reportedly increasing, with strong sales across various product lines, indicating a robust market for the brand [10][30] - Duan emphasizes that the iMoutai platform is well-timed to capture genuine consumer demand, especially during festive seasons when Moutai consumption typically rises [10][31] - He believes that the expansion of the consumer base through iMoutai can compensate for any potential declines in sales due to broader economic conditions [10][31]

Core Viewpoint - The investment manager at Fidelity International, George Efstathopoulos, sold most of his gold holdings just before a significant drop in gold prices, but is now preparing to re-enter the market if prices decline by an additional 5% to 7% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Efstathopoulos believes that many market bubbles have been eliminated due to the recent drop in gold prices, while the long-term structural factors supporting gold's strength remain solid [1] - He cites persistent inflation and a weakening dollar as key drivers for gold prices, which have reached record levels [1] Group 2: Fund Management - Efstathopoulos manages a fund with approximately $3 billion focused on income and growth strategies, achieving a 20% return last year [1] - The plan is to increase the gold allocation in the fund to around 5%, emphasizing the importance of gold for portfolio diversification and stability [1]

2025年关税的成本几乎完全由美国企业承担，但对宏观经济的影响存在滞后效应。 根据美国财政部数据，2025年美国关税收入增长迅猛。2025年全年，美国国土安全部共征收2870亿美元关税和缴费，同比增长192%。其中，约三分之一在 第四季度增收，较上一季度增长了5.2%。 与此同时，美国通胀虽然仍明显高于2%的目标水平，但并未激增。2025年消费者物价指数（CPI）在年初升至3%以上后，年中开始回落，年底稳定在 2.7%。剔除食品能源后的核心CPI全年同比增长2.6%，远低于经济学家此前预期的3%。个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）11月同比增长2.8%，生产者价格指数 （PPI）11月同比上涨3%。 关税为何没有导致通胀飙升 对于关税为何没有导致通胀飙升，主要有以下几种解释： 原因1：实际关税规模远小于法定税率 到目前为止，美国实际执行的关税政策规模远小于其宣称的规模。 IMF原第一副总裁、哈佛大学经济学教授吉塔·戈皮纳特与芝加哥大学经济学教授布伦特·奈曼的研究指出，美国实际征收的关税税率显著低于官方公布的法 定税率。 截至2025年9月，美国平均贸易加权关税税率在2025年4月达到32.8%的峰值。然而，如果按 ...

进入 2026 年后，围绕美联储政策方向的讨论，明显比过去一年更激烈了。一边是官方声明仍在反复强调 "谨慎" 与 "耐心"，另一边，美联储内部 和政治层面的声音却开始越来越直接，甚至不再掩饰对当前利率水平的不满。 最近，特朗普钦点的美联储理事米兰在公开讲话中明确表示：今年美联储需要的降息幅度，可能不止 100 个基点；同时，他还公开表达了对凯 文・沃什未来担任美联储主席的期待。 阿萨交易学社分析师 Eden 认为，这一组合信号很快引发市场联想：如果更激进的降息立场叠加一位风格鲜明的新主席，美联储的政策逻辑是否 会发生实质性变化？而对高度依赖利率和美元环境的黄金来说，这是否意味着一轮新的定价冲击正在酝酿？对于黄金入门投资者来说，理解这些 政策变化对黄金价格的影响至关重要。 从米兰的表态来看，他并没有把重点放在 "经济即将衰退" 或 "市场需要刺激" 这些常见叙事上，而是反复强调一个判断：当前的利率水平本身就 过于限制性。 在他看来，潜在通胀并没有构成真正威胁。无论是供需关系还是价格传导，都没有出现需要高利率持续压制的明显失衡。 他甚至直言，当自己观察通胀数据时，并没有看到 "很多需要货币政策应对的强劲价格压力" ...

尽管存在关税相关的不确定性以及其他地区的投资机会，但各家公司仍将重点放在美国，花旗集团财务 总监Mark Mason在"《华尔街日报》Invest Live"活动上表示。"对于许多公司来说，美国仍然是一个非常 好的赌注，"他说道。 他补充称，事实证明，美国经济在贸易战的喧嚣中表现出了韧性，并指出并购势头和资本需求仍在持 续。 Mason提到，许多首席执行官和首席财务官仍在担心关税的潜在影响及其对通胀的意义，但他并未看到 跨国公司中出现"抛售美国"的情绪。"我认为随着时间的推移，人们会意识到，你不会想要赌美国输。" 今日周三(2月4日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于87.40一线下方，今日开盘于84.75美元/盎司，截至发 稿，现货白银暂报86.67美元/盎司，上涨1.88%，最高触及88.24美元/盎司，最低下探83.22美元/盎司， 目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 【最新现货白银行情解析】 白银市场昨日高开在80.075的位置后行情小幅回踩79.844的位置后行情强势震荡拉升，日线最高触及到 了89.185的位置后行情冲高回落，日线最终收线在了85.231的位置后，日线以一根上影线很长 ...