Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed that most officials emphasized inflation risks over labor market concerns, leading to a split in opinions regarding tariff policies [2] - Following the release of the minutes, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 92% to 81%, with market focus shifting to Powell's speech at the central bank's annual meeting [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish signal with prices breaking above the 60/120-day moving averages, with support at $3335 and resistance at $3358 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 601.4 thousand barrels, contrasting with expectations of a decline of 175.9 thousand barrels [4] - The IEA forecasts that global oil production will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025, reaching 105.5 million barrels, and will further rise by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] - Despite the significant drop in inventories, oil prices remain weak due to an oversupply situation, with prices fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and Dollar Index - The Nasdaq index showed a bearish trend with a strong rebound near the support level of 22970, focusing on potential reversal signals in the 23100-23300 range [7] - The Dollar Index experienced a spinning top candlestick pattern, with a brief rise into the 98.30-98.65 range before a slight pullback, indicating a focus on testing the 98.50 level [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market conditions. It shows a complex economic situation with various factors influencing different markets, such as central bank policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year (4.7%). The manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in July was 50.1%, lower than the previous month (50.5%) and similar to the same period last year (50.2%) [1]. - In July 2025, M1 had a year - on - year growth of 5.6%, up from 4.6% in the previous month and a significant improvement from - 2.6% in the same period last year. M2 grew by 8.8% year - on - year, higher than the previous month (8.3%) and the same period last year (6.3%) [1]. - The CPI in July 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 0%, down from 0.1% in the previous month and 0.5% in the same period last year. The PPI in July was - 3.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than - 0.8% in the same period last year [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year and above at 3.5%. The stability is due to the unchanged 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, the pricing basis for LPR [2]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [3]. Metals - On August 20, international precious metal futures generally rose. Policy differences within the Fed and uncertainties in the inflation outlook brought volatility to the precious metal market. The SPDR Gold Trust's (GLD) holdings decreased by 0.42% (4.01 tons) to 958.20 tons as of August 20 [4][5]. - On August 19, tin inventory increased by 85 tons to 1715 tons, zinc inventory decreased to a new low in over 1 year and 9 months (71250 tons), copper inventory reached a new high in over 2 months (156350 tons), and lead inventory decreased by 1850 tons [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In Shandong, coke prices were planned to increase on August 19. The resumption of production of Yichun Yinli led to a sharp drop in lithium carbonate futures. The US expanded the tariff list for steel and aluminum derivatives, which may have a greater impact on China's indirect exports [6]. - India's coal production in July decreased by 12.3% year - on - year, natural gas production decreased by 3.2%, and steel production increased by 12.8% [6]. Energy and Chemicals - On August 20, the main contract of US crude oil rose. The significant decline in US crude oil inventory and the expected recovery of Asian demand supported oil prices. The market's concern about the increase in Russian oil supply eased [8]. Agricultural Products - India exempted cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30. US exporters sold 228606 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Datagro estimated Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production at 1.691 billion tons and corn production at 1.269 billion tons [9]. Financial News Open Market - On August 20, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 49.75 billion yuan after 118.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [10]. Key News - China's new LPR remained unchanged for three months. It is expected that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts in early Q4, which may drive down LPR [11]. - The US Treasury Secretary was satisfied with the current tariff level on China. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs hoped that the US would work with China to achieve positive results in economic and trade consultations [11]. Bond Market - The stock market's rebound in the afternoon suppressed the bond market. Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose by 1 - 2bp, and most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank's increased reverse repurchase operations eased the liquidity tightness [16]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1793 against the US dollar at 16:30, and the central parity rate was 7.1384. The US dollar index fell 0.03% to 98.25 in New York trading [21]. Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed Income believed that the "anti - involution" market could still be expected. It suggested investors pay attention to certain convertible bonds such as Wanfu Convertible Bond and Tong 22 Convertible Bond [22][23]. - CITIC Securities recommended the credit sector with "defensive" attributes, especially AA - and above rated city and rural commercial bank perpetual and subordinated bonds [23]. Stock Market - On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.04% to 3766.21 points and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.89%. The semiconductor industry chain led the rise, while some concepts such as stock trading software and brain - computer interface adjusted [26]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.17% to 25165.94 points. The securities sector has performed well since August, with the industry index rising over 7% and 8 stocks rising over 10% [26]. - As the A - share semi - annual report disclosure entered the intensive period, over 140 companies announced semi - annual dividend plans, with a total planned dividend amount exceeding 100 billion yuan [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range, while silver is expected to experience a slight decline [1] - The trend strength of gold is 1, indicating a relatively weak positive outlook; the trend strength of silver is - 1, indicating a relatively weak negative outlook [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: - For gold, the previous day's closing prices of沪金2510 and黄金T+D decreased by 0.31% and 0.33% respectively, while Comex黄金2510 increased by 0.99% [2] - For silver, the previous day's closing prices of沪银2510 and白银T+D decreased by 1.57% and 1.74% respectively, while Comex白银2510 increased by 1.48% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - For沪金2510, the previous day's trading volume increased by 31,416 compared to the day before, and the open interest increased by 39 [2] - For沪银2510, the previous day's trading volume increased by 242,392 compared to the day before, and the open interest decreased by 23,822 [2] - **ETF and Inventory**: - The SPDR gold ETF持仓 decreased by 4, and the SLV白银ETF持仓 (the day before yesterday) decreased by 34 [2] - The沪金 inventory increased by 249 kilograms, while the Comex黄金 inventory (the day before) decreased by 17,426 ounces; the沪银 inventory decreased by 9,247 kilograms, while the Comex白银 inventory (the day before) increased by 600,232 ounces [2] - **Price Spreads**: - The买沪金12月抛6月跨期套利 cost decreased by 0.87, and the买沪银12月抛6月跨期套利 cost decreased by 11.3 [2] - The黄金T+D对伦敦金的价差 increased by 378.99, and the白银T+D对伦敦银的价差 increased by 4,670 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - The dollar index decreased by 0.04%, and the dollar - to - CNY (CNY spot) decreased by 0.06% [2] 3.2. Macro and Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most people think inflation is a higher risk than employment, and there are concerns about the fragility of the US Treasury market and the impact of stablecoins [4] - Trump pressured the Fed, asking Lisa Cook to resign, but Cook refused to be coerced [7] - Fed Chair favorite Waller said there's nothing to fear about cryptocurrency technology and the Fed should promote payment innovation with the industry [7] - Li Qiang emphasized promoting the improvement and upgrading of the biopharmaceutical industry [7] - China's August LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3% [7] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will study a 24 - hour trading mechanism [5]

当天稍晚，央视记者获悉，丽莎·库克称其"没有被迫辞职的打算"。她表示，作为美联储成员，她将认 真对待任何有关其财务历史的问题，她正在收集准确的信息，以回答任何合理的问题并提供事实依据。 今年5月，丽莎·库克曾表示，特朗普正在推进的贸易政策可能会抑制美国生产力，并可能迫使美联储在 一个效率下降的经济环境中提高利率，以遏制通胀。 （央视新闻） 当地时间8月20日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）必须立即辞职。 丽莎·库克（资料图） 特朗普在帖文中援引了彭博社的一篇报道。该报道指出，美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）局长呼吁司法 部长帕姆·邦迪对库克在两笔抵押贷款中的问题展开调查。 这一举动是特朗普政府近期一系列加强对民主党人士及其任命对象法律审查行动中的最新一步。 ...

SHMET 网讯：会议纪要显示，上月末的最近一次美联储货币政策会议上，联储决策者对通胀、就业、特朗普政府的关税政策影响均未有一致看法，主 流观点是，相比就业，通胀的风险更让人担心。从这个角度看，本次纪要偏鹰派。 截至7月30日的会上，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC再次决定按兵不动，但会后决议显示，两名理事——被传为下任美联储主席热门人选的沃勒和"特朗 普提名"的美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼因主张立即降息投了反对票。这是三十多年首次出现如此多的联储理事对利率决议持异议。 美东时间8月20日周三公布的会议纪要也显示，7月会上，几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息，只有两人反对。纪要体现了，对通胀和就业的风险以及关税对 通胀的影响，联储官员均存在分歧，不过多数还是认为，通胀上升的风险比就业下行的风险高。多人认为，关税的影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。 经济方面，一些人预计美国经济活动将保持稳健，还有些人预计下半年将延续上半年的低增长。 此外，美联储官员普遍认为需要监控一些金融市场存在的脆弱性，一些人表达了对美国国债市场脆弱性的担忧，还有人指出银行和外汇掉期方面的担 忧。多人讨论了最近出台稳定币法案后此类数字资产的影响，与会者认为，应 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan, under Governor Ueda, has raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, marking a significant shift from its previous ultra-loose monetary policy [1] - Ueda's cautious stance is evident as he becomes one of the more dovish members of the nine-member policy committee, expressing concerns about the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [1][3] - The recent outlook report from the Bank of Japan indicates that tariffs could complicate future interest rate decisions, reflecting a cautious approach towards the economic outlook [1][3] Group 2 - The July meeting minutes reveal that persistent food inflation has led some committee members to warn of potential second-round price effects, which could justify further rate hikes [2] - Despite hawkish signals from some committee members, Ueda emphasizes that domestic demand and wage-driven inflation remain below the central bank's target, supporting a slower pace of rate increases [2] - The internal dynamics of the committee show a shift in influence, with former dovish members losing power and hawkish members warning about the risks of rising inflation due to food price increases [2][3] Group 3 - Ueda and his deputy, Shinichi Uchida, maintain a dovish stance, focusing on the downside risks facing Japan's fragile economy and the potential negative impacts of U.S. tariffs [3] - Concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports and capital spending are prevalent, with economists predicting a decline in corporate profits that could affect capital expenditures [3] - The trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. has not fully clarified the timeline for tariff reductions, leading to uncertainty about the future economic landscape [3] Group 4 - The governor proposes policies and interest rate proposals to the committee, which have historically been approved by majority or unanimous votes [4] - Since the current committee framework was established in 1998, the governor's proposals have never been rejected, indicating strong leadership [4] Group 5 - There is a perception that the current committee lacks strong dissenters, making it unlikely for hawkish members to oppose the governor's wishes regarding interest rate hikes [5] - Ueda's leadership within the committee appears to be solid, suggesting that his cautious approach may prevail despite the presence of hawkish sentiments [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively covers overnight market trends of various commodities, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and the performance of financial markets at home and abroad, offering investors a multi - faceted view of the current economic and market situation [3][9][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.00% at $3392.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.51% at $37.90 per ounce [3]. - U.S. inventory decline pushed up oil prices, with the U.S. crude oil main contract up 1.73% at $62.84 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 1.76% at $66.95 per barrel [4]. - Most London base metals rose, except for LME tin which fell 0.22% to $33775.00 per ton [4]. - Most domestic futures main contracts rose, with caustic soda up over 3% and butadiene rubber up over 2% [4]. - As of 2:20, U.S. soybeans rose 0.17%, U.S. corn rose 0.25%, U.S. soybean oil fell 0.97%, U.S. soybean meal rose 0.52%, and U.S. wheat rose 1.44% [5]. Important News Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [9]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent said that the U.S. had a "very good dialogue" with China on economic and trade issues and expected another meeting before November [9]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will work on enriching product supply, promoting the listing of important energy varieties like liquefied natural gas [9]. - Israel's Defense Minister approved an offensive plan against Gaza City [9]. - Kevin Thozet of Capital Economics said that U.S. short - term interest rates face an upward risk [9]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and there were differences among officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In Japan, as of August 16, commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and kerosene inventories increased, and the refinery's average operating rate rose [14]. - As of August 20, China's methanol port inventory increased, with both East and South China regions accumulating inventory [14]. - As of August 10, the rubber (RSS) inventory in Osaka Exchange's designated warehouses decreased [15]. - As of August 20, the capacity utilization rate and output of China's 92 asphalt refineries decreased [16]. - As of August 20, China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory decreased [16]. - Russia expects India to continue buying its oil despite potential U.S. tariff hikes [16]. - As of August 18, the refined oil inventory in the UAE's Fujairah Port decreased [16]. - As of August 15, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 601.4 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations [20]. Metal Futures - In July 2025, global primary aluminum production increased compared to the previous year and the previous month, and China's expected production also rose [22]. - Some polysilicon enterprises reached an agreement on production cuts and inventory control [22]. - With the approaching of relevant events, safety inspections in northern China's lead - zinc mines increased, but there was no direct impact on zinc concentrate production [22]. - In June 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus, and the same was true for the first six months of 2025 [22]. Black - Series Futures - Environmental protection policies are affecting the coking coal and coke market from both supply and demand sides, with potential supply tightening and demand constraints [24]. - The online auction of coking coal from Mongolia's ETT company on August 20 ended in failure [26]. - A coal mine in Inner Mongolia was ordered to suspend production for rectification due to major safety hazards [26]. Agricultural Product Futures - The U.S. Soybean Association urged the Trump administration to reach an agreement to reopen the Chinese market [28]. - Pro Farmer's crop inspection predicted higher corn yields and more soybean pods in Nebraska and Indiana in 2025 compared to 2024 [28]. - In August, China's soybean crushing volume is expected to be high, and the commercial inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills is expected to rise [29]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased compared to the same period last month according to different survey agencies [29]. - U.S. private exporters reported corn sales to Mexico and Colombia for the 2025/2026 sales year [31]. Financial Markets Financial - On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten - year high, and the semiconductor industry chain was strong [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose, while the Hang Seng Technology Index was slightly down, and there was a large net southbound capital outflow [33]. - Since August, the securities sector has performed well, with many stocks rising and funds flowing in through ETFs [33]. - Many A - share listed companies announced mid - year dividend plans, with a total proposed dividend amount exceeding 100 billion yuan [34]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has received 50 new IPO applications since the launch of the "tech enterprise special route" [34]. - China Evergrande's listing status will be cancelled on August 25 [38]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's second - quarter revenue and profit increased year - on - year [38]. - Baidu's second - quarter revenue decreased slightly, but its net profit and AI new business revenue increased [38]. Industry - The State Taxation Administration will guide and remind platform enterprises that have not submitted tax - related information [39]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation plans to introduce new anti - monopoly regulations for the public utility sector [39]. - Some rural banks in Zhejiang, Guizhou, and Jilin have lowered deposit interest rates, while some banks have launched large - value certificates of deposit with higher yields [39]. - In July, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers decreased, and the inventory level was below the warning line but above the reasonable range [40]. Overseas - U.S. President Trump pressured Fed Governor Cook to resign [43]. - Trump has bought hundreds of bonds worth at least $103.7 million since taking office [44]. - The U.S. federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade [44]. - The ECB President said that the euro - zone economy may slow down this quarter [45]. - UK's July CPI accelerated, reducing the possibility of a rate cut by the Bank of England [45]. - Japan's July commodity exports decreased significantly, especially automobile exports [46]. - South Korea will launch a 45.8 - trillion - won support plan for key industries [47]. - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 25 basis points [47]. - The Central Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points [50]. - The Swedish Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged but still expects a possible rate cut this year [51]. International Stock Markets - U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.04%, the S&P 500 down 0.24%, and the Nasdaq down 0.67% [52]. - European three major stock indexes closed mixed, affected by the expectation of peace talks in Ukraine, Fed policy, and economic data [52]. - Estée Lauder's Q4 net sales and adjusted EPS were higher than expected, but its 2026 EPS forecast was lower than expected [52]. - Target's Q2 net sales and adjusted EPS were higher than expected, but comparable sales decreased [53]. - iQiyi's Q2 net loss widened, and its core businesses shrank [53]. - Futu Holdings' Q2 revenue and profit increased significantly year - on - year [56]. Commodities - The CSRC will promote the listing of important energy varieties and expand the scope of futures and derivatives [57]. - The U.S. Soybean Association warned of the severe impact on U.S. soybean farmers if an export agreement with China is not reached soon [57]. - International precious metal futures rose, supported by market uncertainty related to inflation data [57]. - Oil prices rose due to a larger - than - expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventory [57]. - Most London base metals rose, affected by the uncertainty of U.S. monetary policy [58]. Bonds - The strong stock market suppressed the bond market, with most bond yields rising and bond futures falling [59]. - The central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, easing liquidity tensions [61]. - The Ministry of Finance will issue 12.5 billion yuan of RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong on August 27 [62]. - Foreign investors continued to buy ultra - long - term Japanese government bonds in July [62]. - Most U.S. Treasury yields fell [62]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose on Wednesday, while the central parity rate was slightly depreciated [63]. - The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, and most non - U.S. currencies had mixed performance [63].

2025.08.21 本文字数：1432，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈玺宇 英国通胀压力再度陡然上升。 当地时间周三（20日），英国国家统计局发布的数据显示，英国7月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 3.8%，高于预期，创下18个月新高，使英国再度成为全球主要发达经济体中物价增速最快的国家。 从分项数据看，英国服务业价格涨势尤其引人关注。7月服务业通胀率攀升至5.0%，高于6月的4.7%。 服务业通胀被视为衡量国内潜在价格压力的关键指标，其走高显示本土通胀动力依然强劲。 剔除能源、食品等波动项目后，英国7月核心通胀率也略有上行，从6月的3.7%同比增速升至3.8%。与 此同时，生活必需品价格仍在上涨，7月食品和非酒精饮料价格同比上涨4.9%，创下2024年2月以来新 高。 英国通胀为何高于其他发达经济体？ 首先，能源价格监管方式导致统计上的滞后效应。英国的能源和公用事业价格受监管机制影响较大，今 年4月家庭能源账单的大幅上调显著推高了同比增速。这种"行政调价"因素意味着，即使国际能源价格 回稳，监管层面的价格调整仍会令通胀数据居高不下。 其次，英国劳动力市场的供需失衡推升了内生通胀压力。英国脱欧后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's focus on inflation risks may limit interest - rate cuts, affecting the price trends of gold, the US dollar, and US stock indexes. - The stock market is expected to be strong, while the bond market may be weak due to recent policy - related meetings. - The supply and demand fundamentals of various commodities, including agricultural products, metals, and energy chemicals, are affected by factors such as production, imports, and policies, leading to different price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. Market risk aversion increased due to Trump's call for the resignation of Fed Governor Cook. The Fed's limited room for interest - rate cuts this year and Powell's likely cautious stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium suggest that gold will continue to trade within a range in the short term. [13] - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and investors should be aware of the risk of price corrections. [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's meeting minutes show that most members are more concerned about inflation than employment risks. Trump's actions regarding Fed Governor Cook and tariff policies have increased internal differences within the Fed. The US dollar is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with a more likely rate cut in September. [16][17] - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's internal differences have increased, and concerns about inflation are rising. Market expectations for interest - rate cuts have reversed, causing the US stock market to correct. However, the decline has narrowed. [20] - Investment advice: Wait cautiously for Powell's speech on Friday as the market's risk appetite has declined. [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR remained stable in August. The central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operations have maintained market liquidity, but the bond market is affected by the stock market. With recent policy - related meetings, the stock market is expected to be strong, and the bond market may be weak. [22][24] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - term bearish approach and be cautious when betting on price rebounds. [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In July, China imported a large amount of soybeans from Brazil. The Pro Farmer field survey shows good prospects for US soybean yields, which limits the increase in CBOT soybean prices. Domestic demand for soybean meal is better than expected, and the inventory of oil mills has decreased year - on - year. [26][28] - Investment advice: Soybean meal prices are expected to be moderately strong in a volatile market if China stops purchasing US soybeans. Pay attention to the results of the US field survey this week. [28] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Imported coal prices are firm, and Indonesian low - calorie coal has a price advantage over domestic coal. However, due to the decline in daily consumption and supply constraints caused by weather, coal prices are expected to fluctuate around 700 yuan in the short term and may decline seasonally in September. [29][30] - Investment advice: Coal prices may be range - bound in the short term due to supply constraints, but the seasonal decline is inevitable. [30] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A large - scale iron project in Western Australia has been approved. With the implementation of environmental protection restrictions in the north in late August, iron ore prices may be under short - term pressure but are expected to remain range - bound overall. [31] - Investment advice: Iron ore prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with limited impact on the balance sheet from short - term environmental protection measures. [32] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The US has expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs. Domestic steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as inventory accumulation and environmental protection restrictions. [33][35] - Investment advice: Wait for further price corrections before considering investment. [35] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The slaughter capacity utilization rate of Huatong Co., Ltd. is around 30% - 40%. The pig market is affected by policies, and there is a game between weak current conditions and strong expectations. The de - stocking process is ongoing, but there are uncertainties in the rhythm. [36][37] - Investment advice: Consider establishing long positions in the LH2601 contract in the range of 14,000 - 14,150 yuan/ton. [38] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Jujube prices in the Hebei market are stable. New - season jujube growth is normal, but the physical inventory is high. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the price trend is uncertain. [39][40] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and closely monitor the weather conditions in the production areas. [40] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of August and its sugarcane yield in July have shown certain changes. China's imports of syrup and premixed powder in July have increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Brazilian sugar production may face uncertainties, which may affect the global sugar supply. [41][42][43] - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term. Consider buying on dips in the January contract. [45] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A transaction of 30,000 tons of alumina in East Australia has been completed. The market sentiment is cooling, and the supply and demand are loose, leading to a weakening of the price trend. [46] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. [47] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is discussing anti - involution measures for the photovoltaic industry. The price of polysilicon may be affected by policies and market supply - demand relationships. The price is expected to trade between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term and may reach over 60,000 yuan/ton in the long term. [48][50][51] - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach on price corrections. Consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between the November and December contracts when the spread is around - 2000 yuan/ton. [51] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In July, China's exports of industrial silicon increased. The supply may increase marginally in August, but due to the large - scale resumption of polysilicon production, the market may still experience de - stocking in August and enter a stocking phase in September. [52] - Investment advice: Industrial silicon prices are expected to trade between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short term. Pay attention to trading opportunities within this range. [52] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market shows a contango, and the inventory is at a high level. The domestic lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory is high. The price may be under pressure, but the support from the recycling cost needs to be observed. [53][54] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term for both single - side trading and arbitrage. [55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - China's exports of galvanized sheets and Peru's zinc concentrate production have increased. In July, China's imports of zinc concentrate reached a record high. The LME zinc market has a high structural risk, and the domestic zinc market is affected by imports and inventory. [56][57][58] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading in the short term. Consider long - term positive arbitrage opportunities and maintain a positive arbitrage strategy before the overseas inventory bottoms out. [59] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In July, China's imports of non - alloy nickel increased significantly. The LME and SHFE nickel markets show different inventory trends. The nickel market is affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and macro - environment. [60][61] - Investment advice: Nickel prices are unlikely to decline significantly in the short term. Consider short - term trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on price increases. [62] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In July, China's imports of lithium carbonate decreased significantly. The sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices was due to panic selling by some long - position holders. Fundamentally, there is no significant negative news, and the market may experience de - stocking in the third quarter. [63][64] - Investment advice: Consider buying on price dips and positive arbitrage opportunities. [64] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The development of a copper mine project in Arizona is facing uncertainties due to a court ruling. A copper mine expansion project in Zambia has been launched. The copper market is affected by factors such as the US economic situation, policy expectations, and inventory levels. [65][66][67] - Investment advice: Copper prices are expected to be widely volatile in the short term. Consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets. [68] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - South Korea plans to restructure its naphtha cracking capacity. The increase in the PG contract price on Wednesday was mainly due to sentiment rather than fundamental support. [69][70] - Investment advice: Do not short - sell for now. Consider positive arbitrage opportunities between the November and December contracts for the 2510 contract. [70] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA data shows a significant decline in commercial crude oil inventories. The oil price is expected to continue to trade within a narrow range, waiting for a directional driver. [71][72][73] - Investment advice: Wait for a directional driver in a volatile market. [73] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rebounded slightly. The supply is relatively stable, and the price mainly follows the trend of crude oil. [74] - Investment advice: Adjust positions according to the cost of crude oil. Consider buying on price dips with a light position. [75] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA has strengthened, and the market negotiation is fair. The demand from the weaving and polyester sectors is improving marginally. The price mainly follows the cost - end trend. [76][77] - Investment advice: The price mainly follows the cost - end trend. Consider buying on price dips with a light position and rolling the position. [78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the market is weak, and the supply and demand are in a general situation. The price is expected to continue to be short - sold on price increases. [79] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on price increases and pay attention to supply - side disturbances. [79] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the market has declined. The supply - side hype has subsided, and the market is weak. [80] - Investment advice: Be cautious in single - side trading. Consider arbitrage strategies, such as buying glass and short - selling soda ash when the spread widens. [81] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is expected to be range - bound. [82][83][84] - Investment advice: The caustic soda market has bottomed out, but the price increase may be limited. The price is expected to be range - bound. [84] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable, with some varieties showing a downward trend. The market is lackluster, and the price is expected to be range - bound. [85] - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to be range - bound in the short term due to weak fundamentals. [85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder is weak, and the downstream demand is general. The anti - dumping ruling in India may further weaken the market. [86][87] - Investment advice: The PVC market is expected to be weak in the short term. [87] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of styrene rebounded due to news of naphtha cracking capacity reduction in South Korea. The market may focus on future supply situations, and the price may be affected by cost and sentiment. [88][89] - Investment advice: Be aware of the impact of policies on the supply and cost of styrene and the spread of market sentiment. [89] 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories have been partially increased. The production capacity of major bottle chip factories will continue to be reduced in August, and attention should be paid to the pressure brought by the resumption of production and new production capacity in late August to September. [90][91] - Investment advice: The price of bottle chips mainly follows the trend of polyester raw materials. Pay attention to the impact of production capacity changes in late August to September. [91] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The container throughput of Hamburg Port to the US has decreased significantly. The EU's trade situation has deteriorated due to US tariff increases. The supply of shipping capacity is still relatively high, and the demand is weak, so freight rates are expected to continue to decline. [92][93][94] - Investment advice: The freight rate is expected to be range - bound in the short term. Consider short - selling opportunities on price increases. [94]

周三，美国股市在科技股普遍承压的背景下再度走低，三大股指收盘涨跌不一。其中标普500指数下跌0.24%，收于6395.78 点，连续第四个交易日走低；以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.67%，收报21172.86点，录得连续第二个交易日下 跌。 周三市场另一大关注点在于美联储7月会议纪要的公布。根据周三公布的会议纪要，官员们普遍认为劳动力市场和通胀形势 存在风险，但多数人仍坚持认为现在降息为时过早。最终， 美联储选择维持基准利率不变，但两位联邦储备委员会成员罕 见地投下了反对票，要求立即降息。这是30多年来首次出现多位理事同时反对利率决议的情况，凸显了决策层内部的分 歧。 此外，特朗普喊话美联储理事库克立即辞职，从而进一步加大对美联储的施压力度。据彭博社报道，美国联邦住房金融局 （FHFA）局长呼吁美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪对库克在两笔抵押贷款中的问题展开调查。 标普500指数录得四连跌 当地时间周三，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道指涨0.04%报44938.31点，标普500指数跌0.24%报6395.78点， 录得连续第四日下跌，纳指跌0.67%报21172.86点。 盘面上，抛售压力主要来自科技 ...