黄金实时分析 美国对等关税延迟到8月1日，市场担忧情绪未改，黄金支撑3310？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...

当地时间7月7日，一条关于美国关税的重磅消息落地，为全球贸易舞台投下新一轮冲击波。美国总统特 朗普当日表示，自2025年8月1日起对来自日本和韩国的进口产品征收25%的关税。 与此同时，他还对南非、泰国、印尼、老挝等另外12个国家的进口产品计划征收25%至40%不等的关 税。在这一批公开的14国关税名单中对缅甸和老挝商品的征收关税最高，为40%。 本届任期以来，特朗普推行的"对等关税"政策，引起全球贸易与经济增长的风险，招致全球多国不满。 自4月2日宣布开征以来，引发美国金融市场暴跌。在多方压力下，特朗普又在4月9日宣布暂缓对部分贸 易伙伴征收高额"对等关税"90天，但维持10%的"基准关税"。如今，关税"盲盒"揭开，在全球经济与政 治舞台上再掀波澜。 受特朗普宣布加征关税消息影响，美国股市主要股指7日全线下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌 422.17点，跌幅0.94%，标准普尔500指数收跌0.79%，纳斯达克综合指数收跌0.92%。 美国财政部长贝森特6日接受美国有线电视新闻网采访时表示，特朗普本周将向贸易对象发送信函，告 知美方计划征收的关税税率。对于8月1日之前未能与美国达成贸易协议的国家，关税税率将 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. President Trump's abrupt halt in trade negotiations with Canada due to Canada's proposed "digital services tax" on U.S. tech companies, which Trump labeled as a "blatant attack" [1] - The U.S. decision has thrown U.S.-Canada relations back into turmoil, despite previous agreements made during the G7 meeting to reach a new economic deal within 30 days [1] - As the 90-day suspension period for "reciprocal tariffs" approaches its end, countries like Japan and South Korea are actively negotiating with the U.S. regarding tariff issues [1][3] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce criticized the U.S. for its unilateral imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" since April, which they argue undermines the multilateral trade system and disrupts normal international trade order [3] - The number of countries reaching tariff agreements with the U.S. is significantly lower than expected, with only Vietnam and the UK making progress, while others remain in prolonged negotiations or adopt a wait-and-see approach [3] - Trump's frustration is evident as he publicly expressed concerns about the complexity of negotiations with over 170 countries still without agreements [3] Group 3 - Japan and South Korea are engaged in multiple rounds of negotiations with the U.S., but internal conflicts within Trump's team have complicated the discussions, leaving Japan uncertain about U.S. demands [5] - Despite the challenges, both Japan and South Korea are committed to pursuing trade agreements, with India's Prime Minister Modi also expressing a desire to resolve differences during his visit to the U.S. [5] - There are indications that Trump may visit China in the coming months with a large delegation of U.S. business leaders, aiming to focus on trade cooperation rather than conflict [5] Group 4 - In a recent interview, Trump stated that the U.S. is managing its relationship with China well, despite ongoing accusations against China regarding hacking and intellectual property theft [7] - The complexity of U.S.-China relations is attributed to extreme tendencies within the U.S. diplomatic decision-making, which have led to a misjudgment of the situation and potential crises [7] - The interdependence of U.S. and Chinese enterprises is highlighted as a stabilizing factor, suggesting that the trade war may conclude with the U.S. adopting a more conciliatory approach [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations and tariff policies under the Trump administration, highlighting the implications for various countries and industries, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade relationship and the potential impacts on exports and economic growth. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations and Policies - The U.S. has postponed the deadline for tariff negotiations from July 9 to August 1, with President Trump indicating a potential increase in tariffs on imports from various countries, including Japan, which could reach 30-35% [1][2] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed by the U.S. House aims to reduce taxes and government spending, which is seen as part of Trump's economic strategy to boost domestic demand while increasing government revenue through tariffs [2][3] - The U.S. has reached agreements with the UK and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan, the EU, and India are ongoing, indicating a complex international trade landscape [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Exports and Industries - The article notes that the tariff situation has led to a surge in exports from China, with a 6% growth rate in exports from January to May, surpassing the previous year's growth [4] - Companies are experiencing pressure to expedite production due to uncertainty surrounding future tariffs, particularly in the electronic paper industry, which has seen significant demand from clients [5][6] - The "rush to export" phenomenon is highlighted, with estimates suggesting that approximately $24 billion in exports were preemptively shipped to the U.S. in anticipation of higher tariffs [7][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Challenges - The article emphasizes that while there has been a temporary boost in exports, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing tariff negotiations and potential economic pressures [9][10] - The manufacturing PMI in China has shown signs of recovery, but new export orders remain below the growth threshold, indicating persistent challenges in the export sector [10][11] - The article suggests that the global trade environment will continue to impact China's economy, with a need for strategic policy adjustments to navigate the uncertainties ahead [12][13]

美国总统特朗普7日宣布将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不 等的关税，并决定将"对等关税"暂缓期截止日期延长至8月1日。一些美国媒体将最新系列举措解读为升 级贸易战之举。 哪些国家面临美国最新关税威胁？金融市场和贸易伙伴如何回应美方动作？美政府将谈判延期又施压加 码背后有何意图？ 哪些国家面临美最新关税威胁？ 特朗普当天在社交媒体上陆续发布他写给日本、韩国等14国领导人的信函，称将从8月1日起对这些国家 征收25%到40%不等的关税。 根据信函，日本、韩国、马来西亚、突尼斯、哈萨克斯坦将被征收25%的关税，南非和波黑将被征收 30%的关税，印度尼西亚将被征收32%的关税，塞尔维亚和孟加拉国将被征收35%的关税，泰国和柬埔 寨将被征收36%的关税，老挝和缅甸则面临40%的关税。 同一天，特朗普签署行政令，延长"对等关税"90天暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。特朗普 表示，8月1日的期限不是"100%固定的"，他将对此保持灵活性。 特朗普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"，引发美国金融市场暴跌。在多方压力下，他又在4月9日宣布暂 缓对部分贸易对象征收高额"对等关税 ...

Group 1 - Trump expresses support for former Brazilian President Bolsonaro, criticizing Brazil's treatment of him and highlighting Bolsonaro's strong leadership and trade negotiation skills [1] - Trump Media Technology Group launches global streaming platform Truth+, making Newsmax channel available on all international Truth+ applications and websites [2] - Trump signs executive order extending the tariff suspension period to August 1, delaying the implementation from July 9 [3] Group 2 - Trump seeks to terminate subsidies for wind and solar energy, labeling renewable energy as unreliable and expensive, and harmful to the environment and power grid [4] - Trump issues tariff threats to 14 countries, with varying rates from 25% to 40%, effective August 1 [5] - Trump indicates willingness to lift sanctions on Iran at an appropriate time [6] Group 3 - Trump expresses dissatisfaction with Putin and announces increased weapon shipments to Ukraine, citing disappointment over Russia's actions [8] - A proposal is made for Trump to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize [9] - Trump suggests that the tariff implementation date could be postponed if countries make proposals [10]

Group 1 - The core issue is the impending end of the US's equal tariff suspension period, leading to a backlash from 29 countries against the US, highlighting a shift in international alliances [1][5][9] - The US's equal tariff policy, which imposes a 10% tariff on most countries, is seen as an attempt to adjust the global economic order in favor of US interests, disregarding the economic differences among nations [3][5] - The response from traditional allies, such as South Korea and Japan, indicates a growing discontent with US policies, with both countries expressing their unwillingness to accept the proposed tariff increases [7][9] Group 2 - The EU's 27 member states have collectively decided not to reach an agreement with the US before the deadline, further complicating the situation for the Trump administration [9] - Former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama emphasized the need for Japan to adjust its relationship with the US and strengthen cooperation with China and South Korea to gain more influence [11][12] - The combined GDP of China, Japan, and South Korea accounts for 23.4% of the global total, and their trade volume represents 18.7% of global trade, indicating the significant impact of their cooperation on the global economic landscape [11][12]

Group 1 - The U.S. government, led by President Trump, unexpectedly extended the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1, indicating a shift in trade policy just hours before the original deadline [3][5] - The U.S. trade deficit surged by 18% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with over 35% attributed to trade with China, highlighting a structural imbalance in the U.S. economy [5] - The potential for significant economic backlash from tariff increases is evident, as major retailers like Walmart and Home Depot warned of price hikes of 15%-20%, which could severely impact low- and middle-income families [10] Group 2 - China's strategic advantage in rare earth resources is significant, with the U.S. relying on China for 83.7% of its rare earth imports, and up to 97% for heavy rare earths [12][15] - The U.S. semiconductor industry faces a 20% capacity shortfall if tariffs are imposed on Malaysia, which supplies 40% of advanced packaging materials globally [7] - The trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have seen China leverage its resource control to negotiate favorable terms, such as linking rare earth exports to the lifting of U.S. technology restrictions [17][18] Group 3 - The U.S. tariff policy is reshaping global trade dynamics, prompting retaliatory measures from other countries, including a 25% retaliatory tariff from the EU on U.S. agricultural products [19] - Emerging market countries are increasingly seeking to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, with initiatives like the BRICS currency settlement mechanism and ASEAN's digital trade negotiations [21][23] - China's investments in ASEAN countries increased by 37% in the first half of 2025, focusing on critical sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy, thereby enhancing its strategic positioning against U.S. tariffs [25]

FICC日报 | 2025-07-08 关税政策面临调整，高位股回落 市场分析 关税政策进入下一阶段。关税方面，特朗普威胁对金砖国家加征10%新关税。外交部对此回应称，金砖机制是新 兴市场和发展中国家合作的重要平台，倡导开放包容、合作共赢，不搞阵营对抗，不针对任何国家。关于加征关 税，中方已经多次阐明了立场，贸易战、关税战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。特朗普接连在社媒上公布其对多 个国家发出的关税信函，截至目前，其已对14个国家发出最新的关税税率威胁，其中日本、韩国、哈萨克斯坦、 马来西亚和突尼斯面临25%的关税税率。同时签署行政命令，延长"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到 8月1日。财政部长贝森特表示，已经有很多贸易对手改变了在谈判方面的态度，预计本周将公布多项贸易协议。 贝森特称，"我们将在未来48小时内发布几项公告。" 沪指震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数走势分化，上证指数涨0.02%收于3473.13点，创业板指跌1.21%。行业方面， 板块指数涨跌互现，综合、公用事业、房地产、轻工制造行业涨幅居前，煤炭、医药生物、通信行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交金额继续回落至1.2万亿元。海外市场，美国三 ...

1）特朗普心中可能有一个综合税率底线。4 月上旬特朗普一系列关税政 策变化表明 10%的全球税率可能是当时心中的底线，该底线与贸易平衡有 关，但更多是为了弥补财政收入。4-6 月美国关税收入超 600 亿美元，而 1-3 月仅 288 亿美元，若按 4-6 月线性外推美国今年全年关税收入可能在 2000~3000 亿美元。但 7 月 4 日通过的 OBBBA 给出"10 年 3.4 万亿美 元、26-28 年 1.6 万亿美元"基础赤字需求，对关税维持财政运转提出更 高要求，10%底线关税税率可能会适度上调。 2）关税既是目的也是手段，贸易平衡和保护特定产业两手都要抓。本次 对等关税独立于行业关税，232 调查下的多数行业要么是钢铝、汽车等基 础行业（稳就业、票仓），要么是半导体、药品、关键矿物等重要行业 （产业链安全、制造业回流），从过去几轮行业关税实施情况看，下调概 率较小且只可能对部分盟友国或贸易协定国家给予优惠，表明保护特定产 业优先级很高。 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 08 日 关税新阶段 —7 月 7 日美国新关税政策点评 频率：每月 事件：当地时间 7 月 7 日，特 ...