四中全会于2025年10月20日至23日在北京举行。其传递的"十五五"规划关键信号引发市场高度关注。全 会提出"加快高水平科技自立自强，引领发展新质生产力"，为资本市场深化改革锚定历史坐标。 中信建投强调"新质生产力"首次纳入全会规划框架，经济发展更重"质效提升"；长江证券看好规划引导 下中国经济"新跨越与蝶变"；国泰海通指出科技目标由"追赶"转向"领先"，政策重心向需求侧与民生倾 斜，多方观点共同勾勒出未来五年经济发展的核心路径。 展望A股后市，国信证券维持科技是市场主线的判断。2024年9月以来，在AI浪潮的引领下，多个行业 打开了增量空间，科技股成为本轮行情的主线。当市场进入快速上涨阶段，领涨板块往往是当时主导产 业的应用领域，如2015年上半年的"互联网+"，2021年的新能源车。着眼未来一年，仍看好科技主线。 盘面上，昨日（10月23日）A股主要指数探底回升集体收涨，或与重磅会议释放的未来五年规划关键信 号有关。热门ETF方面，百分百布局新质生产力的双创龙头ETF（588330）单日吸金1068万元，或有资 金提前进场埋伏！ 【为何要通过宽基指数布局科技行情？】 1、分散风险，避免"把鸡蛋放在一个篮 ...

值得关注的是，本次会议再度涉及短期经济判断，明确提出"坚决实现全年经济社会发展目标"。会议强 调"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力"，结合当前近3000 亿元政策性金融工具已投放、财政从地方政府 债务结存限额中安排5000 亿元下达地方的现实基础，全年实现5%的经济增长目标具备相当坚实的支 撑。 二、全会将"建设现代化产业体系"置于更突出的位置，并首次明确提出"保持制造业合理比重"。 本次全会将"建设现代化产业体系"置于更突出的位置，并首次明确提出"保持制造业合理比重"。全会进 一步强调"坚持智能化、绿色化、融合化方向"，或意味着要将科技创新成果更深入地融入产业实践，推 动传统产业与新兴产业协同并进。相较于"十四五"规划中"保持制造业比重基本稳定"的表述，本次全会 更加强调"合理比重"，体现出对产业结构优化与第三产业发展的统筹考量。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 事件：中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于2025 年10 月20日至23日在北京举行。 一、全会强调"集中力量办好自己的事"，续写经济快速发展和社会长期稳定两大奇迹新篇章 经济形势研判方面，本次会议 ...

Group 1: Strategic Context - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by a complex development environment with both strategic opportunities and risks, necessitating a focus on maintaining strategic determination and enhancing confidence in overcoming challenges[11] - The report emphasizes a significant increase in economic, technological, national defense, comprehensive national strength, and international influence by 2035, reflecting the demands of great power strategic competition[13] - Economic construction remains the central focus, with a commitment to high-quality development and meeting the growing needs of the populace[14] Group 2: Key Policy Directions - There is a strong emphasis on optimizing major productivity layouts and enhancing national security capabilities in key areas, including food, energy, and supply chain security[21] - The report highlights the importance of technological self-reliance and self-improvement, indicating a shift towards greater innovation and domestic capability in technology[23] - Maintaining a reasonable proportion of the manufacturing industry is crucial, with a target to stabilize its share of GDP around 25% by 2025, while increasing the proportion of high-tech manufacturing[28] Group 3: Economic Growth and Investment - The economic growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is suggested to be around 5%, aimed at enhancing national strength and boosting public confidence[15] - There is a call to vigorously stimulate consumption and expand effective investment, linking consumer welfare with investment in goods and services[29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the strategic importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, which is seen as a crucial time for consolidating foundations and advancing towards long-term goals set for 2035 [2][3][4] - The article highlights the need for high-quality development, technological self-reliance, comprehensive deepening of reforms, and improvements in social civilization and people's living standards as key objectives for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][6] Group 2 - The article outlines that the main goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" include achieving a per capita GDP level comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, with an average annual GDP growth rate of at least 4.4% over the next decade [5][6] - Specific goals are broken down into thirteen categories, with a notable shift in focus from technology innovation to building a modern industrial system, indicating a transition towards practical applications of technological advancements [7][8] - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand and constructing a high-level socialist market economy is highlighted, with a stronger focus on consumer spending and social welfare investments [8][9] Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of establishing a unified national market, which is expected to facilitate the development of new productive forces and promote sustainable economic growth [8][9] - It notes a significant shift in the priority of expanding high-level openness, reflecting the need for China to engage more actively in global economic cooperation amidst rising protectionism [9][10] - The commitment to achieving carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 remains a critical goal, with expectations that the "15th Five-Year Plan" will see significant progress towards these targets [10]

中央纪委国家监委网站 薛鹏 李灵娜 图为10月20日，在山东港口青岛港，一艘货轮在拖船辅助下停靠集装箱码头。新华社发 俞方平 摄 10月23日，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议胜利闭幕。全会听取和讨论了习近平总书记受中 央政治局委托所作的工作报告，充分肯定一年多来以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领亿万人民勇毅前 行、开拓创新取得的新成就。全会的一项重要成果，是审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展 第十五个五年规划的建议》，这是确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展的纲领性文件。 习近平总书记指出，科学制定和接续实施五年规划，是我们党治国理政一条重要经验，也是中国特色社会主 义一个重要政治优势。从新中国成立初期的百废待兴到新时代的伟大变革，14个五年规划（计划），一以贯 之的主题是把我国建设成为社会主义现代化国家。党的二十届四中全会对未来五年发展作出顶层设计和战略 擘画，必将对党和国家事业发展产生重大深远影响，全党全国各族人民要把思想和行动统一到以习近平同志 为核心的党中央决策部署上来，团结一心、奋力拼搏，确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展。 极不寻常、极不平凡，"十四五"主要目标任 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The report indicates that after a significant rise in gold prices over the past two months, there has been a recent sharp decline, leading to high volatility in the market. It suggests that gold may no longer be a high-cost performance global asset [13] - The report highlights that the historical patterns of gold price increases often begin when volatility returns to pre-breakout levels. It identifies the price range of $3,800 to $3,900 per ounce as a potential bottom area for gold prices [13] - The long-term outlook remains positive for gold, with a projected price center of $4,814 per ounce by 2026, driven by factors such as rising global fiscal deficits and continued central bank purchases of gold [13] Group 2: Shipping Decarbonization - The report discusses the increasing frequency of decarbonization policies in the shipping industry, particularly from the IMO and the EU, indicating that the industry is entering a phase of implementation [14] - It notes that the global shipping fuel consumption is approximately 300 million tons, resulting in over 1 billion tons of carbon emissions, with the EU accounting for about 18% of this total [14] - The report emphasizes the significant demand for low-carbon fuels, such as biodiesel and green methanol, driven by compliance costs and regulatory frameworks, with a projected increase in demand for these fuels [15][16] Group 3: Baofeng Energy Performance - Baofeng Energy reported a revenue of 35.545 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.43%, with a net profit of 8.950 billion yuan, up 97.27% year-on-year [21] - The company’s Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 12.725 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.49%, and a net profit of 3.232 billion yuan, reflecting a strong operational performance [21][18] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Baofeng Energy, projecting net profits of 13.5 billion yuan, 15.1 billion yuan, and 16 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 9, 8, and 7 times [21]

Core Points - The article emphasizes the importance of uniting under the leadership of Xi Jinping to achieve socialist modernization and national rejuvenation [1][2] - It highlights the significant achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, noting the resilience against challenges such as the pandemic and international risks [2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is identified as a crucial period for solidifying the foundation for socialist modernization, with a focus on high-quality development and technological self-reliance [2][3] Economic Development - The focus is on building a modern industrial system that strengthens the foundation of the real economy, emphasizing smart, green, and integrated development [3][4] - There is a call to enhance domestic markets and create a new development pattern that promotes consumption and investment, ensuring a positive interaction between supply and demand [4][5] Technological Advancement - The article stresses the need for high-level technological self-reliance and innovation, aiming to enhance the national innovation system and foster new productive forces [4][5] - It advocates for strengthening original innovation and tackling key core technologies to integrate technological and industrial innovation [4] Social and Cultural Development - There is a commitment to enhancing cultural innovation and development, promoting socialist core values, and increasing the international influence of Chinese culture [5] - The article emphasizes the importance of improving people's livelihoods and promoting common prosperity through effective social policies [5] Environmental Sustainability - The article underscores the necessity of a comprehensive green transformation in economic and social development, aiming for carbon neutrality and ecological safety [5] - It promotes the idea of sustainable development, integrating environmental protection with economic growth [5] National Security and Defense - The article highlights the modernization of the national security system and capabilities, ensuring a stable and orderly society [5] - It outlines the goals for military modernization, emphasizing the importance of leadership and strategic development in defense [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key tasks and goals for China's 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and the construction of a modern industrial system to achieve socialist modernization by 2035 [1][14][20]. Group 1: Economic Goals and Development - The 15th Five-Year Plan aims for significant improvements in high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and social progress, with a focus on achieving a per capita GDP level comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035 [14][20]. - The expected GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan is around 5%, with a target of maintaining a stable economic environment amidst global uncertainties [21][22]. - By 2035, the goal is to increase per capita GDP from $13,400 in 2024 to approximately $23,000, representing a significant economic leap [20][21]. Group 2: Key Tasks for the 15th Five-Year Plan - Key tasks include building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, and enhancing domestic market strength [2][26]. - The plan emphasizes the need for comprehensive reforms, including optimizing regional economic layouts and promoting cultural innovation [2][12]. - There is a strong focus on improving people's livelihoods and ensuring common prosperity, with specific measures to enhance social welfare and environmental sustainability [12][19]. Group 3: Technological Development - The plan highlights the necessity of achieving a high level of technological self-reliance, particularly in critical areas such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and aerospace [28][29]. - Increased investment in research and development is projected, with R&D spending expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan by 2024, marking a 48% increase since 2020 [27]. - The emphasis on education, technology, and talent development is crucial for fostering a robust innovation ecosystem that supports sustainable economic growth [29].

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session has approved the proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan, outlining China's development blueprint for the next five years, emphasizing the commitment to advancing Chinese-style modernization and achieving socialist modernization [1] Group 1: High-Quality Development - High-quality development is the primary task for building a modern socialist country, with significant achievements expected during the 15th Five-Year Plan [2] - The plan aims to guide scientific deployment across various fields, promoting higher quality, efficiency, equity, sustainability, and safety in development [2][3] Group 2: Modern Industrial System - A modern industrial system is crucial for promoting high-quality economic development, focusing on intelligent, green, and integrated directions [3] - The plan emphasizes optimizing traditional industries, nurturing emerging industries, and enhancing service sectors and infrastructure [3] Group 3: Domestic Market Support - Strong domestic market support is essential for high-quality development, with a focus on improving people's livelihoods and stimulating consumption [4] - The plan aims to release demand in various sectors through proactive macroeconomic policies, making domestic demand a primary driver of economic growth [4] Group 4: Technological Self-Reliance - The level of technological self-reliance and strength is set to significantly increase, with a focus on scientific and technological innovation as a pathway to modernization [5][6] - The plan includes strengthening original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs, integrating technology with education and talent development [7] Group 5: Comprehensive Reform - Comprehensive reform is identified as a fundamental driver for advancing Chinese-style modernization, with a focus on enhancing the socialist market economy [8] - The plan includes specific measures to improve macroeconomic governance and remove deep-seated institutional barriers [8][9] Group 6: High-Level Opening Up - The plan calls for expanding high-level opening up to create a win-win cooperation landscape, promoting trade innovation and investment cooperation [10] - It emphasizes the importance of a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment to enhance global resource allocation capabilities [10] Group 7: Cultural Development - The session highlights the importance of cultural development, aiming for a significant improvement in social civilization levels [11] - The plan includes promoting cultural innovation and enhancing the influence of Chinese civilization [11] Group 8: Improving People's Livelihoods - The plan emphasizes the need to improve and guarantee people's livelihoods, aiming for common prosperity and addressing urgent social issues [13][14] - Specific measures include promoting quality employment, improving the income distribution system, and enhancing public services [14] Group 9: Ecological Progress - The plan sets a goal for significant progress in building a beautiful China, focusing on green transformation and ecological civilization [15][16] - It includes measures for pollution prevention and ecological system optimization to support high-quality development [17] Group 10: National Security - The plan underscores the importance of national security as a foundation for national rejuvenation, integrating security with social governance [19][20] - It aims to modernize the national security system and enhance public safety governance [19]

盘前要闻 1、中央重磅定调！四中全会公报出炉，十大机构解读：重点关注四大赛道 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报出炉。其中提出，加快高水平科技自立自强，建设 强大国内市场，扩大高水平对外开放。招商证券指出，会议后一至两周为行情集中爆发期，未来直到建 议稿出台期间，需要重点关注商业航天、深海科技、一带一路，以及涉及到四季度政策可能加力的领 域。 2、美欧开启新一轮对俄制裁，涉及石油领域！国际原油价格大幅上涨 类型：宏观 情绪影响：中性 美国财政部长贝森特宣布美国制裁俄罗斯最大的两家石油企业，并敦促俄罗斯与乌克兰立即停火，欧盟 也正式通过对俄罗斯第19轮制裁。国际油价大涨至两周高位。WTI原油向上触及62美元，最终收涨 3.99%；布伦特原油最终收涨5.38%，报65.90美元/桶。 3、外资巨头相继发声，积极看好后市！隔夜中国资产全线爆发 投资锦囊：投资是基于价值的理性决策，而投机则是基于价格的赌博。真正的投资者应专注于企业的内 在价值，而不是短期的价格波动。 类型：市场 情绪影响：正面 隔夜三大指数集体收涨，中概股表现亮眼，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.66%，阿里巴巴涨超 ...