Core Insights - The overall trend of global supply chains is positive, but their resilience remains relatively weak [4][6] - China is injecting more certainty into global supply chain cooperation amid global uncertainties [2][3] Group 1: Global Supply Chain Trends - The global supply chain development is characterized by improved infrastructure connectivity, particularly in developing countries, and a rebound in maritime connectivity [2][3] - International trade rules are increasingly focused on inclusive development, with many new bilateral agreements led by developing countries [2][3] - Major economies are implementing policies to enhance their supply chain resilience, although some of these policies exhibit protectionist tendencies [2][3] Group 2: Technological and Financial Innovations - Technological innovations, such as augmented reality and generative AI, are significantly driving global supply chains towards digitalization and sustainability [3] - Financial services are becoming more inclusive, with international financial institutions supporting financing for developing countries and addressing trade financing gaps for SMEs [3] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Index Matrix - The newly released global supply chain index matrix includes four indices: Promotion Index, Connectivity Index, Innovation Index, and Resilience Index, which assess various aspects of supply chains [4][5] - The Promotion Index has increased to 2.71 from 2018 to 2024, driven by improvements in infrastructure connectivity and technological innovation [5] - The Connectivity Index has risen to 1.56, reflecting better internal connections within supply chains [5] Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - To ensure stable global supply chains, there is a need for efficient infrastructure networks and adherence to open, inclusive bilateral rules [7] - Policies should promote mutual benefits and avoid protectionism, while fostering a vibrant environment for innovation and cross-border flow of resources [7] - Continuous tracking and improvement of global supply chain research are essential for building a secure and efficient global supply chain [7]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is facing a critical situation due to the announcement of a 30% tariff on EU exports by U.S. President Trump, which could have disastrous economic impacts on the EU if negotiations do not yield a better agreement before the August 1 deadline [1][6][11]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The proposed tariffs could lead to shortages or price increases for imported goods in the U.S., particularly affecting products like wine, cheese, and pasta, primarily sourced from France [6]. - The French food industry is expected to suffer a "disastrous" impact from the 30% tariff, as stated by the president of the French National Food Industry Association [6]. - The German Industrial Association has expressed that the tariff escalation threatens global employment and investment, with German companies already incurring billions in additional costs [11]. Group 2: EU Response and Strategy - The EU is preparing to negotiate with the U.S. while also being ready to defend its interests through potential countermeasures [15][19]. - There is a lack of consensus among major EU economies like France, Germany, and Italy regarding the approach to the U.S. tariffs, with some advocating for strong responses while others prefer negotiation [12][13]. - The EU has delayed the implementation of retaliatory tariffs worth €21 billion until August 1 to allow for negotiation time, while also preparing a second list of tariffs on U.S. products valued at €72 billion [22][25]. Group 3: Trade Relations and Future Outlook - The EU's trade relations with the U.S. are at a crossroads, with increasing pressure to adopt a more assertive stance against U.S. tariffs [19][21]. - The EU is considering a range of products for potential tariffs, including aircraft, machinery, and automotive parts, to ensure a balanced competitive environment [25]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and rising protectionism necessitate that the EU accelerates bilateral trade negotiations with other partners [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions initiated by the U.S. government, particularly focusing on the significant increase in tariffs and its implications for global trade dynamics, especially concerning Southeast Asia and the lithium battery industry. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Increases - The U.S. government has announced a substantial increase in tariffs starting August 1, targeting 14 countries including Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN nations, with a focus on goods rerouted to evade tariffs [2] - Vietnam's exports to the U.S. have surged since 2018, while its imports from China have also increased, indicating a potential "trade rerouting" that the U.S. aims to address with high tariffs [2] - Goods transiting through Vietnam will face a 40% tariff, including lithium batteries, highlighting the U.S. strategy to combat perceived tariff evasion [2] Group 2: Regional Responses and Implications - Indonesia has agreed to impose a 19% tariff on exports to the U.S., with additional punitive measures for rerouted goods [3] - Other ASEAN countries may face tariffs ranging from 32% to 40%, nearing punitive levels for rerouting [4] - The U.S. has not clearly differentiated between "transshipment" and "greenfield investment," complicating the situation for Chinese companies investing in Southeast Asia [4][5] Group 3: Broader Trade Dynamics - The current tariff increases are seen as a significant shift in global trade dynamics, the largest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, with average effective tariffs expected to exceed 20% [6] - The U.S. trade policy is driven by three core principles: countering China's industrial policy, reviving domestic manufacturing, and addressing trade deficits [6] - This approach contradicts WTO principles of "most-favored-nation" treatment, raising concerns about the multilateral trade system [7] Group 4: Economic Impact - The tariff increases are projected to raise consumer prices by 2.1%, costing U.S. households approximately $2,800 and potentially reducing GDP by 0.5% [8] - The geopolitical shift is leading to a fragmented global supply chain, with trade growth between pro-U.S. and pro-China groups slowing by nearly 5 percentage points compared to intra-group trade [8] Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Despite the tariff warnings, financial markets have remained relatively calm, attributed to "tariff fatigue" and companies adjusting their strategies [9] - The delayed impact of tariffs is expected to manifest in late 2023, with rising costs affecting global corporate profits [9] - The lithium battery industry in China, heavily reliant on the U.S. market, faces significant risks, with potential losses exceeding $15 billion if exports are fully replaced [9][10] Group 6: Strategic Shifts for Chinese Companies - Chinese companies are shifting from "trade rerouting" to "deep localization" in response to changing trade rules, with significant investments in local production facilities [13] - The strategy of deep localization may not be sufficient to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions and evolving trade regulations [13][14] - Future challenges may include stricter origin rules and non-tariff barriers, necessitating continuous adaptation by Chinese enterprises in a fragmented global landscape [14]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 17.09% anti-dumping duty on most imported tomatoes from Mexico, which is expected to significantly impact tomato trade between the two countries, despite being lower than the previously threatened 21% tariff [1][9]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Tomato Market - The profit margin for U.S. fresh tomato traders typically ranges from 10% to 20%, making the 17% tariff a substantial cost that could severely compress profit margins, especially for small to medium-sized traders [1][2]. - The U.S. fresh tomato market is heavily reliant on imports, with 72% of the total supply in 2024 coming from imports, 90% of which is sourced from Mexico [5][6]. - The average per capita consumption of fresh tomatoes in the U.S. is 20.3 pounds (approximately 9.2 kg) in 2023, indicating a strong demand for tomatoes [5]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Pricing Effects - Due to geographical and cost advantages, Mexico can grow tomatoes year-round, while U.S. production is limited by factors such as land costs and extreme weather [6]. - The new tariffs are likely to lead to a supply shortage in the U.S. fresh tomato market, resulting in increased consumer prices [2][10]. - Estimates suggest that tomato prices in the U.S. could rise by approximately 10%, with demand potentially decreasing by 5% as a result of the tariffs [13]. Group 3: Reactions and Economic Implications - Various business groups, including the National Restaurant Association, have expressed concerns that terminating the tomato suspension agreement could have widespread economic impacts across agriculture, warehousing, logistics, and the food service industry [11][12]. - The Mexican tomato imports contribute to approximately 50,000 jobs in the U.S. and generate an economic benefit of $8.3 billion, including indirect effects [12]. - Some large food companies are opting to use domestically sourced tomatoes to avoid tariff pressures, while smaller businesses are facing greater challenges due to potential price increases [14][15]. Group 4: Potential Retaliation from Mexico - The Mexican government has strongly opposed the U.S. tariffs, labeling them as politically motivated and unfair, and has indicated a willingness to seek diplomatic solutions [16][20]. - Historical context shows that Mexico has previously implemented countermeasures against U.S. agricultural products, such as corn and pork, which could be revisited in response to the new tariffs [17][18].

Group 1 - The global copper market is facing turmoil due to former President Trump's proposed 50% tariffs on imported copper and semi-finished products, which has triggered a significant price surge and market chaos [1][6][12] - The immediate reaction includes protests outside the White House and anxiety among major manufacturing companies in key cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago, indicating widespread concern over the potential impact on the manufacturing sector [2][4][6] - The U.S. domestic copper production accounts for only 5% of global supply, necessitating over $20 billion in annual imports, which suggests that high tariffs could severely damage the U.S. manufacturing industry [7][9] Group 2 - The rising copper prices are causing panic among various sectors, including electrical, automotive, and military industries, leading to increased costs and potential project delays [6][9][11] - Chinese copper exporters are considering strategies such as relocating production to Mexico or raising prices, reflecting the global supply chain's response to the U.S. tariffs [10][11] - The increase in copper prices is expected to affect consumer costs significantly, with potential price hikes in electricity, internet services, and consumer goods, creating uncertainty in public sentiment and spending [11][15][17] Group 3 - The market is experiencing volatility, with companies hoarding supplies and speculators taking advantage of the situation, indicating a state of uncertainty across the industry [12][13] - Experts warn that Trump's protectionist policies may backfire, harming domestic industries rather than protecting them, as global supply chains are increasingly interconnected [12][13] - If the tariffs are implemented, the U.S. manufacturing sector may undergo significant adjustments, and China's copper exports could find new pathways, leading to further unpredictability in global copper prices [13][19]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is prepared to impose additional tariffs on $720 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail, following the announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods by U.S. President Trump [1][4]. Group 1: EU's Response to U.S. Tariffs - The EU's countermeasure list spans 206 pages and targets over €65 billion in industrial products, including aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [2]. - Agricultural products account for approximately €6 billion, with fruits and vegetables (€2 billion) and alcoholic beverages (€1.2 billion) being the most affected [2]. - The initial list targeted €95 billion in U.S. goods but was reduced after consultations with businesses and member states [4]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Market Impact - EU officials express disappointment over the U.S. tariff announcement, which they believe disrupts ongoing negotiations that were close to reaching an agreement [4]. - The new tariffs have negatively impacted European stock markets, with analysts noting that the 30% tariff far exceeds initial expectations of a 10% tariff [4]. - If the 30% tariff is implemented, trade between the EU and the U.S. could become "nearly impossible" [4]. Group 3: EU's Strategic Alliances - The EU plans to strengthen ties with countries affected by U.S. tariffs, including Japan and Canada, and is seeking to expand cooperation in the Pacific region [1][8]. - The EU is also negotiating trade agreements with countries in the Southern Common Market and aims to establish global partnerships to counter U.S. pressure [8]. - There is a growing trend among countries, including Canada and Brazil, to seek independent trade paths and reduce reliance on the U.S. [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's strategy of imposing tariffs is increasingly ineffective, as evidenced by the lack of substantial trade agreements and the growing resistance from trade partners [2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Strategy - The Trump administration announced new tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on various trade partners, extending the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1 [1][2]. - Despite threats, the U.S. has only reached framework agreements with the UK and Vietnam, failing to secure comprehensive trade deals [2][3]. - The U.S. is perceived to be losing its negotiating power, with countries like Japan and Canada responding to tariff threats with their own countermeasures [2][3]. Group 2: Global Economic Resilience - Countries are enhancing their economic resilience through infrastructure improvements and industry competitiveness to counter U.S. tariff pressures [3][4]. - Germany has approved a €460 billion corporate tax reduction plan and a €500 billion public investment initiative to stimulate its economy [3]. - Japan has introduced measures to support corporate financing and consumer spending, while also providing energy subsidies [3]. Group 3: Trade Diversification Efforts - Many countries are seeking new trade partnerships to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, leading to a more diversified international trade landscape [6][7]. - The EU is actively pursuing free trade agreements with various countries, including those in the Global South, to strengthen its trade network [6][7]. - ASEAN countries are focusing on regional economic integration and leveraging multilateral agreements to counteract tariff impacts [6][7]. Group 4: Responses from Emerging Markets - Emerging markets like Malaysia and Brazil are resisting U.S. pressure by refusing to compromise on national interests and implementing their own industrial plans [3][5]. - Brazil's government is advancing a "New Industrial Plan" to enhance manufacturing competitiveness through financing and tax incentives [5]. - African nations are accelerating regional market integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement to build resilience against global trade shocks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by China to consider resuming imports of Japanese Wagyu beef and certain seafood is a strategic response to the trade pressures created by U.S. tariffs under President Trump, aiming to strengthen economic ties between China and Japan while diversifying trade routes [3][12]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The U.S. tariffs imposed by Trump since 2018 have significantly impacted trade flows, prompting countries like China and Japan to seek new partnerships and adjust their trade strategies [3][9]. - The trade relationship between China and Japan has been evolving, with the trade volume surpassing $300 billion in 2024, indicating a growing economic interdependence [9]. Group 2: Agricultural Imports - China is considering lifting a 24-year ban on Japanese Wagyu beef imports, a move influenced by a 2019 agreement on animal health and quarantine cooperation [4][5]. - The resumption of Wagyu beef imports is expected to benefit both Chinese consumers, who seek high-quality meat options, and Japanese farmers, who have faced economic challenges [5][12]. Group 3: Seafood Imports - China plans to partially lift the ban on Japanese seafood imports, excluding products from the Fukushima region due to safety concerns stemming from the 2011 nuclear disaster [5][9]. - This decision is aimed at helping Japanese fishermen who have struggled with reduced access to the U.S. market due to tariffs, while also catering to the growing demand for seafood in China [5][9]. Group 4: Future Cooperation - The collaboration between China and Japan is expected to extend beyond beef and seafood, with potential synergies in technology, renewable energy, and infrastructure development [9][10]. - The ongoing trade adjustments may lead to a more diversified global trade landscape, reducing reliance on the U.S. market and fostering regional economic stability [10][12].

展望本周，市场关注焦点依然集中在全球地缘局势及贸易摩擦进展方面，此外，多位美联储官员对货币 政策的表态也将对黄金本周行情走势产生一定影响。从技术面来看，现货金价自上周初经大幅向下调整 后，周终收盘拉回3200美元／盎司整数关口之上，表明黄金的底部买盘较为强劲，本周有进一步向上反 弹空间。短线关注3250美元／盎司一线多空争夺情况，如有效上破，上看3280~3300美元／盎司区间压 力；下方关注3200~3190美元／盎司区域支撑力度。 （文章来源：新华财经） 不过，尽管中美贸易暂时敲定了协议，但可以预见的是，特朗普政府一贯的"美国优先"贸易保护主义政 策将继续对全球政经秩序造成持续困扰，美元信用也将持续衰落并对美国自身造成更大反噬。与此同 时，美联储长期维持高利率环境已严重削弱了其国内消费意愿，今年第一季度经济已萎缩0.3%。预计 接下来特朗普政府与美联储围绕降息展开的博弈将不可避免的再度升级，市场对美国经济前景担忧将进 一步加剧。 对于黄金市场而言，在全球政经格局加速重构的大背景下，地缘风险不定、美元美债信用下降、全球央 行持续增持黄金，对黄金的需求将长期保持旺盛，金价后市上升空间依然可期。 新华财经北京5 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has shifted from a passive defensive strategy in international trade to an active offensive approach, responding decisively to unfair treatment and trade pressures from multiple countries [1][3][22]. Trade Measures - On July 1, China announced anti-dumping duties on stainless steel products imported from 30 countries, including the EU, Indonesia, and South Korea [4][5]. - The move is seen as a direct response to previous trade actions against China, such as the EU's imposition of a 13.2% anti-dumping duty on Chinese tinplate products [5][15]. Strategic Implications - The decision to impose tariffs on multiple countries simultaneously signals a significant change in China's role in international trade, indicating a transition to a more assertive stance [3][22]. - China is leveraging its strong industrial base in stainless steel production, which accounts for a substantial portion of the global market, to enhance domestic competitiveness [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The tariffs are designed to apply differentiated rates, particularly targeting South Korean companies, which may face punitive tariffs as high as 103.1%, while leaving some room for cooperation [18]. - Countries like Indonesia, which rely on their natural resources, are attempting to use their position to gain political leverage, but they may underestimate China's control over critical resources like nickel [10][19]. Global Reactions - The EU and UK are facing significant supply chain risks due to China's actions, prompting a reevaluation of their trade relationships with China [18]. - South Korean companies are experiencing stock declines and are considering relocating operations to mitigate risks associated with China's trade policies [18]. U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. has notably been excluded from the recent tariff list, indicating a potential shift in its approach towards China, as evidenced by recent actions to ease restrictions on exports to China [5][19][21]. - This strategic omission suggests that the U.S. may be seeking to improve relations with China, recognizing the importance of cooperation in the context of global supply chains [19][21].