2025年10月7日，天还没亮，印度的能源圈炸开锅，俄方发来一纸"新规"：以后想买他们的油，得掏出 人民币，美元和卢比都不认——再说一次，美元也不认，印度这边有人当场摔了茶杯，玻璃碴子扎进指 缝，没时间管疼，电话一通一通打给新德里，气氛像极了中午断网。 有人说莫迪早该想到，俄乌打了这么久，西边制裁一拨接一拨，俄国的美元储备直接被西方锁死在银行 账户里，三千亿美元，一夜之间变成数字，谁不慌？俄国人能不琢磨新法子？他们先试过阿联酋的迪拉 姆，绕了一圈发现还是不靠谱，折腾得手忙脚乱，最后盯上人民币，发现好用——流通快，能换卢布， 还不怕被西边查水表。 有人问，印度为啥要急？油价，油价呀，账单上一年省的170亿美刀，能救多少工厂？俄油每桶比沙特 便宜十刀，比美油还低五六刀，谁不心动？更别说那点小算盘——印度把便宜原油买来，炼成成品油， 高价甩给欧洲，赚得盆满钵满，连孟买港的蚂蚁都知道这生意香。 但现在油源还在，结算方式突然变了，人民币从哪来？"我们能不能直接印点？"有人开玩笑，坐在椅子 上摇着笔，"只能多卖点铁矿砂给中国了。"查数据，2025年前三季度印度卖出三千多万吨铁矿砂，换了 两百八十亿人民币，这还不够买油用， ...

Group 1 - HSBC Group's CEO expresses strong confidence in Hong Kong's economic prospects, highlighting it as a key market for growth and returns [1] - Hong Kong serves as a crucial "super connector" for wealth management, providing access to the mainland and international markets [1][2] - The city is expected to become the world's largest cross-border wealth management center by 2030, with HSBC adding approximately 100,000 new customers monthly over the past two years [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong ranks third globally and first in the Asia-Pacific region in the latest Global Financial Centres Index, with a narrowing gap to New York and London [2] - The city benefits from a time zone advantage, facilitating operations between Asia and the Middle East, and has a long-standing history as a mature financial center [2] - HSBC views Hong Kong as an important "international connector," leveraging its global network to support business and investment connections [2] Group 3 - There has been a significant increase in new listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with 69 new companies listed in the first nine months of the year, a 53% increase from the previous year [3] - The current momentum in listings is expected to continue for the next 12 months or longer, reinforcing Hong Kong's attractiveness as a global financial center [3]

Group 1 - Russian oil traders have demanded that Indian state-owned refineries conduct transactions exclusively in RMB, indicating a shift away from accepting Indian Rupees [2][8] - The inability of the Indian Rupee to be recognized internationally limits its utility, as it cannot be easily exchanged for goods from other countries [4][6] - India's reliance on imports for many domestic goods undermines the credibility of the Rupee, leading to a lack of demand for it globally [6][8] Group 2 - The current geopolitical landscape has forced India to seek closer ties with Russia, especially after deteriorating relations with the US due to trade disputes [6][8] - Russia is leveraging India's dependence on its oil by requiring India to find its own sources of RMB for transactions, reflecting the changing dynamics in international trade [8][10] - The decline of US dollar dominance is evident as countries look for alternatives, with the RMB gaining traction due to China's strong production capabilities [8][15] Group 3 - The historical context shows that countries like Brazil had to rely on the US dollar due to a lack of alternatives, highlighting the impact of military power on currency dominance [11] - China's rise as a manufacturing powerhouse has allowed it to push for the internationalization of the RMB, reducing reliance on the US dollar [13][15] - The ultimate goal for China is to increase the RMB's share in global reserves to surpass that of the US dollar, marking a significant shift in global economic power [15]

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has surged from $16 trillion in 2013 to over $32 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach nearly $1 trillion in 2024, indicating unsustainable fiscal policies [2][4] - The debt-to-GDP ratio is approaching 130%, which is considered high among developed countries, raising concerns among economists about long-term sustainability [4] - Foreign ownership of U.S. debt has decreased, with China reducing its holdings to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2008, as geopolitical tensions and currency diversification strategies take precedence [4][6] Group 2 - The overall foreign ownership of U.S. debt has dropped from a peak of 30% to around 23%, with significant reductions from various foreign investors, including the Cayman Islands and European tax havens [7] - U.S. domestic institutions hold over $20 trillion in debt, but this internal transfer does not alleviate the burden of interest payments, which are projected to reach $230.6 billion in 2024 [7][9] - The U.S. housing market is under pressure, with a total housing market value exceeding $55.1 trillion, but new home sales are declining due to high mortgage rates, which remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels [9][11] Group 3 - The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023 highlighted vulnerabilities in the banking system, leading to tighter credit conditions and impacting the real estate sector [11][13] - Economic indicators show a mixed picture for the U.S., with a GDP contraction of 0.5% in Q1 2025, followed by a rebound of 3.8% in Q2, but persistent inflation and high unemployment rates remain concerns [13][15] - The IMF projects global growth at 2.8%, with emerging markets, particularly China, expected to drive a significant portion of this growth, while the U.S. faces challenges from high debt and low growth [15][17] Group 4 - The trend of decoupling from the U.S. dollar is evident, with countries reassessing their investments in U.S. assets, leading to a potential restructuring of global supply chains [17] - The overall investment climate in the U.S. is weakening, with forecasts indicating that the economic recovery may not be sustainable, and inflation pressures continue to pose risks [17]

这并不算意外，关键是印度竟然也答应了。印度的石油公司已经用人民币结算了几笔订单，这让很多人感到有些惊讶。 在俄印石油贸易中，印度扮演着"买方大户"的角色。俄油对俄罗斯来说的确是一项紧急生意，因为除了中国和印度，几乎没有其他国家愿意直接 从俄罗斯买油。印度还怀着雄心，希望把卢比推向国际市场。此前在与俄罗斯的交易中，卢比用过一段时间，但由于在实际结算中几乎没有作 用，后来也就放弃。 另外，阿联酋迪拉姆的稳定性较差，波动大、流通性不足，美元也不能直接用来结算，给俄罗斯带来压力。因此，俄罗斯转而寻求人民币作为国 际结算货币。印度买家在这件事上并没有犹豫，直接与俄方达成共识，选择以人民币结算石油。 看起来好像不可思议，但其实早有布局。尽管人民币在全球通过SWIFT结算的份额在下降，使用中国的CIPS（人民币跨境支付系统）结算人民币 的人数和金额却在增加，货物贸易用人民币在国际上并非新鲜事。 据路透社10月8日的报道，俄罗斯的石油出口企业已经要求印度公司以人民币来结算。以前他们允许用美元、迪拉姆和人民币三种方式结算，但现 在改成只收人民币。 过去印度不愿意使用人民币，原因之一是中印关系并不太友好—but 随着两国关系的改 ...

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3222 trillion by the end of August 2025, marking an increase of $29.9 billion from the end of July, with a growth rate of 0.91% [3][4] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, reaching 7.406 million ounces (approximately 2305 tons) by the end of September [3][5] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The foreign exchange reserves have shown a consistent growth trend in 2025, with only one month (July) experiencing a decline of $25.2 billion [3] - The increase in reserves is attributed to macroeconomic data, monetary policy expectations, and a slight fluctuation in the US dollar index, which remained stable around 97.8 in September [4][5] Gold Reserves - The continuous increase in gold reserves is a strategic move to diversify reserve assets and reduce reliance on a single currency, thereby mitigating exchange rate and credit risks [5][6] - The rise in gold reserves supports the internationalization of the Renminbi, as a strong currency is often backed by substantial gold reserves [5][6] Market Context - The global economic uncertainty has highlighted the strategic value of China's $3.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves as a buffer against external risks [5] - The shift in central banks' reserve strategies from US dollar bonds to gold and other physical assets indicates a significant global rebalancing [6] Future Outlook - The stable growth of foreign exchange reserves and the ongoing accumulation of gold are expected to provide a solid foundation for maintaining financial stability amid external shocks [6] - The foreign exchange management department plans to enhance the management mechanism to ensure market stability in the face of complex external environments [6]

最近有媒体报道称，由于价格争议，中国暂停了从澳大利亚矿业巨头必和必拓进口铁矿石。几乎在同一时间，北京成立了"中国矿产资源集团"，旨在整合进 口采购权，从而在铁矿石的谈判中获得更大的主动权。 更引人关注的是，中国不仅要求澳大利亚降低价格，还提出了一个大胆的请求——希望使用人民币进行结算。 铁矿石是中国生产钢铁的关键原料，而过去60%的铁矿石依赖于澳大利亚供应。由于供应过于集中，澳大利亚在铁矿石定价上占据主导地位。中国钢铁企业 不仅面临较高的成本，还常因"产能过剩"而受到西方国家的批评。数据显示，2024年中国四大最赚钱的钢铁企业——宝钢、中信特钢、南钢和华菱钢铁，它 们的净利润总和还不及日本的制铁企业一家。 因此，如何降低铁矿石进口成本，已经成为中国钢铁行业亟待解决的问题。 不过，这次中国的目标不仅仅是降低矿石价格，背后有更深层的战略布局，那就是推动人民币在大宗商品交易中的使用。而实现这一目标的关键之一，正是 俄罗斯。 更重要的是，俄罗斯的铁矿石可以用人民币结算。过去几十年，全球铁矿石贸易有三条"铁律"：以美元计价、离岸交易、以及按照普氏指数定价。中国要进 口铁矿石，必须先兑换美元，再根据西方设定的价格进行购买 ...

就在中国人民欢庆国庆的时刻，全球最大的矿业公司之一——总部位于墨尔本的必和必拓，正在面临一项至关重要的抉择。据彭博社报道，中国矿产资源 集团已要求国内买家暂停使用美元结算购买必和必拓的铁矿石，转而使用人民币结算。这个消息震动了国际市场，许多人将其视为对必和必拓的最后通 牒。但如果你认为这只是一次普通的商业谈判，那就大错特错了。事实上，这一要求背后隐藏着深刻的地缘政治和经济变化，预示着全球秩序正在悄然发 生转变。 首先，作为全球最大的铁矿石进口国，中国每年进口超过11亿吨铁矿石，其中60%以上来自澳大利亚。那么，为什么中国此时提出这一要求？这背后有一 个关键的因素：西芒杜铁矿。西芒杜位于西非几内亚，是全球已知储量最大、品质最优的未开发铁矿。目前，中国已经在这个项目上投入了大量精力，并 计划在今年11月开始投产。西芒杜铁矿年产量预计达到1.2亿吨，约占中国年进口量的十分之一，且其矿石质量上乘。这使得中国在国际铁矿石市场中拥 有了一张"王牌"。 最初，中国拿下西芒杜矿的目标，似乎仅是为了压低铁矿石价格。然而，现在看来，中国的目标远不止于此，背后真正的战略意图是争取在全球结算体系 中占据主动地位，尤其是在货币结算权方 ...

本文内容均引用权威资料结合个人观点进行撰写，文末已标注文献来源，请知悉。 图 | 人民币 10月7日，路透社的一则消息引起人们的注意，莫迪政府的国有石油巨头印度石油公司，已经用人民币支付了多批俄罗斯石油货款。 这是印度两年来，第一次真正意义上，用人民币购买俄罗斯的石油。 图 | 印度总理莫迪 这笔交易不是临时起意的，而是俄罗斯在受到西方制裁的情况下所提出的要求，俄罗斯石油贸易商正在积极推动包括印度在内的合作伙伴使用人民币等非西 方货币进行贸易。 他们拒绝接受其他的货币，人民币就是少数可以绕开制裁障碍、能直接换成卢布和俄罗斯的生产厂商进行最后交易的货币之一。 对印度来说，直接以人民币结算能简化原来的付款程序。以前使用美元或者阿联酋迪拉姆的时候，俄方最后还是要把钱换成人民币再换成卢布。 现如今直接用人民币，省去了中间环节，交易成本和汇率波动风险大大降低。但是这条道路印度走的并不顺畅。此次重启人民币结算不能忽略中印关系的变 化这一背景因素。 早在2023年印度国有石油公司就做过少量使用人民币交易的试点但是由于两国关系冷淡该交易随即终止。 转折点出现在近段时间内，两国间断五年之久的直航再次开通，印度总理莫迪于9月出席 ...

Group 1 - The current Chinese stock market exhibits a structural slow bull characteristic, indicating a foundation for a slow bull market [1] - Key driving factors for the positive market trend include a low interest rate environment, implementation of institutional reforms, accelerated institutional entry of long-term capital, and marginal improvement in profitability [1] - The deepening reform of the capital market is transforming it from a financing-focused model to a balanced investment and financing model centered around hard technology and new productive forces [2] Group 2 - The ongoing A+H listing trend is expected to attract international capital inflow as more outstanding Chinese companies list in Hong Kong, benefiting the internationalization of the Renminbi [2] - The introduction of policies aimed at guiding long-term and professional investment, such as encouraging institutional investors and long-term funds to enter the market, enhances the rationality of stock pricing and overall stability of stock valuations [2] - The structural nature of supply in the market and the total volume focus on the investment side expand the range of selectable companies while increasing the difficulty of discerning quality, which is beneficial for bottom-up selection by institutional investors [2]