上周五，现货黄金一度触及 4211.06 美元高位，随后大幅回落，一度下跌至 4032.10 美元低点。在经过 上周四和上周五大跌之后，上周金价涨幅缩减至2.1%。今日欧市盘中，黄金延续跌势，目前在4077美 元附近徘徊。 降息预期生变！ 上周，美股三大股指涨跌不一，道指涨0.34%，标普500指数涨0.08%，纳指跌0.45%。 消息面上，美国关税政策出现重大调整。 当地时间11月14日，美国白宫公布总统特朗普签署的最新行政令，进一步调整"对等关税"的适用范围， 将部分农业产品排除在此前依据《对等关税行政令》所征收的附加关税之外。 行政令指出，基于国内相关产品需求与产能评估，以及政府机构最新建议等因素，特朗普认为有必要修 改关税清单，以应对其在《对等关税行政令》中所宣布的"国家紧急状态"。 更新后的关税豁免表及对"结盟伙伴"的潜在调整清单将自美国东部时间2025年11月13日0时1分起生效。 行政令同时要求修改《美国协调关税表》，并按规定处理可能涉及的关税退还。 还有值得一提的是，日本利空突袭。 当地时间11月17日，日本股市开盘后，日经225指数低开低走，截至午间收盘，日经225指数跌0.7%， 东证指数 ...

Market Reaction - The reopening of the U.S. government after a 40-day shutdown was initially expected to be a positive catalyst for the market, but instead led to a significant drop, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 800 points [1][3] - The small-cap Russell 2000 index and the technology sector also experienced substantial declines, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000, marking its lowest closing price since May [1][3] Economic Data Concerns - The shutdown resulted in a backlog of economic data, which investors rely on to gauge economic trends. The release of this data caused market anxiety rather than relief [3][5] - There is uncertainty regarding how the accumulated data will impact market expectations, particularly concerning the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December [5][7] Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve dropped significantly, with market bets falling from 63% to 50% in just one day, compared to nearly 70% a week prior [5][7] - Diverging views within the Federal Reserve regarding employment and inflation are contributing to market volatility, as changes in interest rate expectations lead to rapid shifts in capital [7][8] Sector Performance - The technology sector was notably affected, with companies like Cloudflare and Nvidia experiencing significant stock price declines due to high valuations and profit-taking [9][11] - Other sectors, such as healthcare, which previously supported the market, lost momentum, further exacerbating the declines in major indices [13] Capital Flows - There has been a notable shift in capital flows, with over $20 billion flowing into defensive sectors of the S&P 500 since October, while the technology sector saw a net outflow of over $35 billion [15] - Some companies, like Cisco, saw stock price increases due to positive earnings outlooks, while the energy sector was the only one to gain on a specific day, attributed to stable oil prices [15] Future Outlook - The U.S. Labor Department is expected to release the backlog of economic data soon, which will provide clearer direction for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [18][20] - Despite current market uncertainties, the long-term outlook for technology and artificial intelligence sectors remains positive, although short-term valuations may need to adjust [18][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market was narrowly fluctuating last week, dominated by the stock - bond seesaw effect. The weak financial and macro data in October confirmed the economic downward expectation in Q4, but the market reaction was flat, and the bond market sentiment was mainly driven by the stock market, being more sensitive to stock market rises. The stock market first adjusted, then rose and fell back, and declined overall last week, leading to bond market fluctuations with only a slight decline in long - term bond yields. Short - term bond yields rose slightly as the tax period approached, and the yield curve continued to flatten [3]. - This week (the week of November 17), the bond market will continue the oscillating pattern. The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the short term has cooled, and the expectation of an interest rate cut is still weak. With the macro data in a vacuum period, the bond market will continue to oscillate, and stock market fluctuations will continue to dominate market sentiment. The new regulations on public fund redemption fees may be implemented soon, but since the market has priced them fully, they may cause market fluctuations in the short term but with limited amplitude. Overall, with multiple factors such as weak fundamentals, low expectation of loose policies, the central bank's care for the capital market, the stock market entering an oscillating rest period, and the unimplemented new regulations on public fund redemption fees, the bond market is unlikely to break the deadlock and will probably continue the narrow - range oscillating pattern [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was narrowly fluctuating last week, with long - term bond yields slightly declining. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.06% in the whole week. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.02bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.59bp, with the term spread continuing to narrow [4]. - On November 10, affected by the warming of October inflation data, the bond market was weakly oscillating in the morning, but the long - term bonds recovered in the afternoon as the stock market fell, while short - term bonds were still weak due to tightened capital. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing by 0.03bp, and most of the Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.01% [4]. - On November 11, the bond market was generally warming and oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing by 0.20bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.02% [4]. - On November 12, the central bank's Q3 monetary policy report mentioned stabilizing growth again and deleted the "anti - arbitrage" statement. The market's loose expectation remained, driving the bond market to be generally warming and oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreasing by 0.48bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.02% [4]. - On November 13, the stock market hit a new high, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious. The bond market generally weakened. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.55bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed down, with the 10 - year main contract falling 0.10% [4]. - On November 14, the capital tightened marginally and the stock market declined. The bond market was narrowly oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.14bp, and the closing prices of Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors were mixed, with the 10 - year main contract remaining flat [4]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 100 interest - rate bonds were issued, 43 more than the previous week, with a issuance volume of 7269 billion, an increase of 2129 billion compared with the previous week, and a net financing amount of 3903 billion, an increase of 1020 billion compared with the previous week. In terms of bond types, the issuance volumes of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds increased month - on - month; the net financing amounts of Treasury bonds and local government bonds increased month - on - month, while that of policy - financial bonds decreased month - on - month [10]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable. Six Treasury bonds were issued, two of which were savings Treasury bonds, and the average subscription multiple of the remaining Treasury bonds was 3.39 times. Twenty - one policy - financial bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.83 times, and 73 local government bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 20.09 times [14]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In October, the policies to stabilize growth drove up entrusted loans, and M1 continued to grow rapidly. In October 2025, new RMB loans were 220 billion, 280 billion less year - on - year; new social financing scale was 815 billion, 597 billion less year - on - year. At the end of October, M2 increased 8.2% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of last month; M1 increased 6.2% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage point lower than at the end of last month [14]. - In October, the year - on - year growth of RMB loans decreased due to weak domestic demand, declining external demand, and the continuous downward pull of implicit debt replacement on new medium - and long - term corporate loans. The year - on - year growth of social financing continued to decline, mainly affected by the significant year - on - year decrease in government bond financing and RMB loans to the real economy. Due to the higher base in the same period last year, the growth rate of M2 declined at the end of October but remained at a relatively fast level. The growth rate of M1 declined as the low - base effect weakened, but it still grew rapidly due to the increase in current deposits of urban investment platform enterprises during debt replacement and the increase in current deposits of small and medium - sized enterprises [14]. - The macro data in October continued to decline. The year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in October was 4.9%, down from 6.5% previously; the cumulative year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in the first 10 months was 6.1%, compared with 5.8% in the whole year of 2024. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October was 2.9%, down from 3.0% previously; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the first 10 months was 4.3%, compared with 3.5% in the whole year of 2024. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, compared with a decline of 0.5% previously and a growth of 3.2% in the whole year of 2024 [14]. - The industrial production growth rate declined rapidly in October due to different working days compared with last year, negative export growth, weak domestic consumption and investment momentum, and the weakening of the pulling effect of policies to boost domestic demand. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods continued to decline in October mainly because the effect of the subsidy policy for trade - in weakened, the base in the same period last year increased, and the accelerated decline of the real - estate market dragged down real - estate - related consumption. The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to October was - 1.7%, with negative cumulative year - on - year values for two consecutive months, mainly due to the slowdown of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real - estate investment. Overall, affected by weak external demand, weakening domestic consumption and investment growth momentum, and the time needed for policies to stabilize growth to take effect, the macro - economic operation in October continued the weakening trend since Q3 [15]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, the high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed performance. The blast furnace operating rate and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants both declined slightly, while the daily average molten iron output increased slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was basically the same as the previous week. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to rise, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) also continued to increase. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased slightly. In terms of prices, the pork price declined slightly, while most commodity prices rose, including the prices of rebar, copper, and crude oil [16]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net injection of funds through open - market operations last week was 626.2 billion. The R007 and DR007 both increased; the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock commercial banks increased; the direct discount rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks of all tenors decreased slightly; the trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased slightly; the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market fluctuated and decreased slightly [26][29][32].

港股三大指数全天表现弱势，恒生指数跌0.71%报26384点，国企指数跌0.74%报9328点，恒生科技指数 跌0.96%报5756点，市场情绪继续疲软，三者均录得2连跌行情。 | 最新价 涨跌额 涨跌幅 | 代码 | | --- | --- | | 800100 国企指数 | 9328.40 -69.56 -0.74% | | 800700 恒生科技指数 5756.88 -55.92 -0.96% | | | 800000 | | 盘面上，大型科技股表现低迷拖累大市下行，其中，上周五大跌超7%的百度再度下跌近3%，铝、铜、 黄金等有色金属板块齐跌。另一方面，电池股逆势领涨，军工股拉升明显，中船防务盘中一度涨至 9%，服装股板块下跌。 | | | | | 汽车 | 地产发展商 -0.25% | 生物技术 -2.04% | | 图层 -1.32% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 銀行 | -0.76% | 线上零售商 -0.20% | 电讯服务 -0.63% | -0.54% | 黄金及贵 | 互动媒体及 | 煤炭 | 家庭 ...

要点摘要 【上周焦点】 国信证券(香港)·宏观周报 宏观周报（2025/11/10-11/14）：美国政府停摆结 束，市场降息预期骤降 【宏观经济概览】 【观点及配置建议】 2025 年 11 月 17 日 宏观周报 主要股市指数近一年表现 主要利率近一年表现 主要商品指数近一年表现 主要汇率近一年表现 黄金及比特币近一年表现 数据日期：2025 年 11 月 14 日 资料来源：万得，国信证券（香港）财富研 究部整理 JIANG CHAOYI SFC CE No.: BWT372 +852 62345097 jadejiang@guosen.com.hk 注：以上数据均来官方披露、公司资料，国信证券（香港）研究部整理，请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及其项下所有内容。 ⚫ 美国：市场在宏观政策不确定性、科技股剧烈波动以及市场 情绪快速转向中度过。全周行情呈现出典型的"事件驱动" 特征，市场先因政府停摆结束而欢腾，后因对人工智能泡沫 和美联储政策的担忧而陷入调整。 ⚫ 中国：宏观政策持续发力，政策面聚焦于培育长期增长新动 能。而资本市场则呈现出明显的结构性机会，A股创阶段性 新高后震荡分化，尤其是成长板块内部的高 ...

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

投机大拿注意到，上周四人民币对美元出现了较大幅度的升值，从7.12升至7.09左右，这一升值幅度已 经相当可观，从而引发了降息预期升温。此前，外管局一直强调要保持人民币汇率的相对稳定，但由于 市场预期美联储将进一步降息，未来人民币升值的压力相对较大，因此为了保证币值稳定，未来大概率 会有降息政策出台。 11月17日，和讯投顾投机大拿在今日市场分析中指出，上周五A股在2点之后出现了一波跳水，叠加周 末的各种消息频发，市场早盘出现了明显的恐慌情绪。 投机大拿认为，这种恐慌情绪本身是没必要的，分析原因，周五A股的跳水大致是从下午2点之后开始 的，而与此同时，可以看到30年期国债在这个时间节点出现了较大幅度的回升。债券价格上涨，而股票 下跌，这种现象并不罕见。很多投资者都知道，股债走势通常是相悖的，例如，在最近的三季度，股市 上涨的同时，债市是下跌的。 那么，债券为什么会在这一刻突然上涨呢？投机大拿表示，债券价格上涨的核心原因通常是降息预期。 债券，尤其是国债，其收益率与存款利率基本相当，因为它们的风险水平相近，收益差距也不会太大。 在这种情况下，降息预期很可能是推动债券价格上涨的主要因素。那么，接下来是否真的会降息 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced volatility last week with various narratives reversing, lacking a clear main theme. Initially, the probability of the U.S. government reopening increased, leading to a temporary "risk on" sentiment, but subsequent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials raised doubts about the likelihood of a rate cut in December, causing risk assets to decline [2][5]. - Precious metals saw significant rebounds following the U.S. Congress's approval of a temporary funding bill, which alleviated previous liquidity concerns. However, cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials led to a rapid decline in rate cut expectations, contributing to a pullback in gold and silver prices [7][24]. - COMEX copper prices maintained a fluctuating pattern, lacking strong driving forces. Despite a temporary rise to nearly 88,000 yuan per ton, prices faced downward pressure, although buying interest emerged after the decline, resulting in a range-bound trading pattern [8][10]. Group 2 - The copper concentrate TC weekly index increased by $0.35 per dry ton to -$41.75, indicating a slight recovery in the spot market activity, with traders actively selling at lower price levels [14]. - Domestic refined copper consumption remains resilient, making it difficult to see a trend of significant inventory accumulation. Downstream buying interest is expected to provide support for copper prices during periods of decline [10][54]. - The COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 350,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 4.45 million ounces, indicating a tightening supply in the precious metals market [37].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data release and its impact on the economy. In the US, the potential replacement of the Atlanta Fed President by a dovish candidate and the uncertainty of the next Fed Chair's identity could affect the interest - rate cut outlook. Domestically, the economic data shows a marginal slowdown, and the strength and effectiveness of policy support are key concerns [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, it broke through the 7.10 mark due to the weak US dollar index, and is expected to get some support from seasonal effects. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at 7.12, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at 7.07 [6]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate due to the weak recovery of the domestic fundamentals and the influence of external factors such as US officials' hawkish remarks and the release of key US economic data [7]. - For treasury bonds, mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term investors can buy on dips [8]. - In the container shipping market, the EC2602 contract's last trading day is confirmed. The market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with multiple long and short factors in play. Trend traders are advised to wait and see, and arbitrageurs can focus on specific spreads [9][10][11]. - For precious metals, in the short - term, the adjustment may continue. Long - term factors still support the upward movement of precious metal prices. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for gold and silver [17]. - For copper, the macro - environment is mixed, and the fundamental de - stocking limits the price increase. The copper price is expected to find a balance based on downstream procurement, with different price ranges predicted [20][21]. - For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][24]. - For zinc, it is expected to show a relatively strong and fluctuating trend, with support at the bottom in November [24]. - For tin, it is recommended to enter the market on dips as the supply is weak compared to demand in the short - term [25]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and they are expected to show wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and policies [28]. - For lead, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and opportunities at the lower level can be noted [29]. - For steel products (rebar and hot - rolled coil), they are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, with the lower limit supported by raw material costs and the upper limit restricted by inventory [32]. - For iron ore, the short - term supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating, but there is a structural shortage. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low prices for better risk - return [34][36]. - For coking coal and coke, the short - term prices may adjust, but in the long - term, they may strengthen with the implementation of policies and winter storage demand. Specific price ranges are provided for investment [37][38]. - For ferroalloys (silicon iron and silicon manganese), they are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [39]. - For crude oil, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level between 60 - 65 dollars, with key attention on geopolitical and risk - aversion factors [44]. - For LPG, it is expected to show a relatively strong and fluctuating trend, with a high valuation [46]. - For PTA - PX, they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, but the PTA surplus expectation restricts the processing fee recovery [50]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the long - term supply - demand surplus remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Specific price levels are provided for operation [53]. - For urea, it is expected to continue to fluctuate, with the downward space supported and the upward space pressured [55]. - For PP, the short - term supply - demand situation improves, and the PP1 - 5 positive spread is supported [58]. - For PE, it shows a bottom - up trend, but the upward space is limited due to the long - term weak supply - demand pattern [61]. - For pure benzene and styrene, they rebounded at a low level, but the fundamental surplus situation remains, and the rebound height is limited [62][63]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be at a low - level consolidation with upward drivers [65][66]. - For asphalt, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the winter storage situation [69]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the supply and demand are affected by multiple factors, and the price may face pressure during the upward process [70]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, the fundamentals are weak. Soda ash is cost - priced, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda has a weak supply - demand pattern in the long - term [71][72][73]. - For pulp and offset paper, they are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations with a slightly downward - shifted center [75]. - For logs, long - term strategies such as 01 - 03 reverse spreads can be considered [76]. - For propylene, it is expected to fluctuate, with the supply side being the main source of price fluctuations [78]. - For hogs, the near - term pressure is large. It is recommended to wait and see and participate in reverse spreads appropriately [83]. - For oilseeds, the USDA report's bullish effect was less than expected. The domestic soybean meal shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [84][85][86]. - For oils, they are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the upward opportunities of the far - month 05 contract [88]. - For soybeans, the bullish trend continues with strong capital buying willingness [90]. - For corn and starch, they are expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom, with limited one - way upward movement [92]. - For cotton, the domestic supply pressure is increasing, and the price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, but there is still some support from the demand side [94]. - For sugar, attention should be paid to the performance around 5500 [96]. - For eggs, the long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and it is recommended to participate in long positions lightly if betting on a rebound [97]. - For apples, the recent trend remains strong [99]. - For jujubes, the new - season production is still uncertain. The price may have limited downward space during the purchase season, and attention should be paid to the commodity rate and purchase situation [101]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Key events include the publication of important articles on new - quality productivity, government meetings on promoting consumption, and the release of China's October economic data. The US has a schedule for releasing important economic data, and there are developments in trade agreements and Fed interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The previous trading day's exchange rate data is provided. It is affected by the US dollar index and domestic policies. The key is to follow economic data and domestic enterprise settlement intentions [3][4][6]. - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day's stock index was weak, and the trading volume decreased. The release of October financial and economic data shows that the domestic fundamentals are in a weak - recovery state, and the index is expected to continue to fluctuate [6][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous week's treasury bonds fluctuated, and the market lacked trading hotspots. The 10 - month economic and financial data were mostly disappointing, but the market reaction was limited. It is recommended to hold mid - term long positions [7][8]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The last trading day of the EC2602 contract is confirmed. The market is affected by both macro and industry fundamentals, with multiple long and short factors [9][10]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Last week, the prices of precious metals rose and then fell. The long - term factors support the upward movement, but the short - term adjustment may continue [15][17]. - **Copper**: The domestic and international copper prices had different performances last week. The macro - environment is mixed, and the fundamental de - stocking limits the price increase [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The price and position of Shanghai aluminum reached a high this week, and then some long positions left. The overseas supply is expected to tighten, but the downstream demand is weak. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of aluminum [21][22][23]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price adjusted at a high level. The smelting end may reduce production in November, and the inventory has the possibility of de - stocking. It is expected to show a relatively strong and fluctuating trend [24]. - **Tin**: The tin price adjusted intraday. The supply is weak compared to demand in the short - term, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the polysilicon industry is in a state of production reduction and inventory accumulation. They are expected to show wide - range fluctuations [25][28]. - **Lead**: The lead price adjusted slightly. The supply was tight in October, and it is gradually returning to balance. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the steel products fluctuated, and the bottom support was strong. The supply and demand of rebar are improving marginally, while the hot - rolled coil has high inventory pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [30][31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand are both weak in the short - term, and the inventory is accumulating, but there is a structural shortage. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low prices [34][36]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The recent price increase of coking coal and thermal coal has led to a wait - and - see attitude in the market. The demand for coking coal is seasonally weak, but the long - term supply may be restricted, and it is recommended to consider long positions at appropriate price ranges [37][38]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The steel mill profitability is declining, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease. The inventory is at a high level, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [39]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous week's oil price showed an N - shaped fluctuation and moved down. The current supply is loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with key attention on geopolitical and risk - aversion factors [41][43][44]. - **LPG**: It is expected to show a relatively strong and fluctuating trend, with a high valuation and a neutral - to - positive fundamental situation [45][46]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the PTA has many maintenance plans in November. The PX - TA is expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, but the PTA surplus restricts the processing fee [47][50]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply side has many unexpected events, and the demand side is relatively stable. The long - term supply - demand surplus remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices [52][53]. - **Urea**: The daily production is expected to remain high in November, but the export policy alleviates the pressure. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [54][55]. - **PP**: The short - term supply - demand situation improves, but the long - term demand growth is limited. The PP1 - 5 positive spread is supported [57][58]. - **PE**: It shows a bottom - up trend, but the long - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the upward space is limited [59][61]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: They rebounded at a low level, but the fundamental surplus situation remains, and the rebound height is limited [62][63]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be at a low - level consolidation with upward drivers [65][66]. - **Asphalt**: The price fell last week, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the winter storage situation [67][69]. - **Rubber & 20 - Grade Rubber**: The supply and demand are affected by weather, downstream demand, and inventory. The price may face pressure during the upward process [69][70]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, & Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are weak. Soda ash is cost - priced, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda has a weak supply - demand pattern in the long - term [71][72][73]. - **Pulp & Offset Paper**: They are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations with a slightly downward - shifted center, affected by factors such as spot prices, port inventory, and macro - environment [74][75]. - **Logs**: The price and inventory data are provided. It is recommended to consider long - term strategies such as 01 - 03 reverse spreads [76]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to fluctuate, with the supply side being the main source of price fluctuations [78]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The near - term pressure is large, and the far - term supply may be affected by policies. It is recommended to wait and see and participate in reverse spreads appropriately [81][83]. - **Oilseeds**: The USDA report's bullish effect was less than expected. The domestic soybean meal shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [84][85][86]. - **Oils**: The USDA report was disappointing, and the oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the upward opportunities of the far - month 05 contract [87][88]. - **Soybeans**: The bullish trend continues with strong capital buying willingness, and the supply structure has changed [89][90]. - **Corn & Starch**: The prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom, with limited one - way upward movement. The corn supply has converged, and the starch is supported by the raw material price [91][92]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton production is expected to increase, and the domestic supply pressure is increasing. The price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, but the downstream demand has some resilience [93][94]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar market information is provided. Attention should be paid to the performance around 5500 [95][96]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and it is recommended to participate in long positions lightly if betting on a rebound [97]. - **Apples**: The recent trend remains strong [98][99]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season production is still uncertain. The price may have limited downward space during the purchase season, and attention should be paid to the commodity rate and purchase situation [100][101].

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to experience fluctuations with significant sector differentiation, as the Shanghai Composite Index struggles around the 4000-point mark, indicating a high-level consolidation phase [1] - The market shows structural characteristics with consumer recovery leading the gains, defensive pharmaceutical stocks strengthening, and technology sectors under pressure, reflecting a trend of consumption > finance > cyclical > growth [1] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has risen to 2.04 trillion yuan, indicating increased trading activity despite a general decline in market participation [1] Group 2 - Economic data in China presents mixed signals, with October CPI turning positive year-on-year, but other indicators such as retail sales, fixed investment, and industrial value-added showing marginal weakness, suggesting that domestic economic momentum still requires policy support [2] - The U.S. government has ended its shutdown, but market sentiment remains cautious due to the absence of U.S. economic data, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance; this has led to short-term valuation pressure on U.S. tech stocks [2] - Looking ahead, there is a possibility of the Federal Reserve choosing to cut interest rates in December, supported by upcoming inflation and employment data, which could influence market dynamics [2] Group 3 - The investment strategy suggests a balanced approach to rapidly rotating market styles, focusing on core themes in technology while paying attention to domestic policy directions for value stocks [3] - Although cyclical and consumer sectors may face short-term performance pressures, current stock prices have largely reflected pessimistic mid-term expectations, indicating potential for valuation recovery [3] - The technology sector is expected to undergo a phase of capital pressure digestion, with short-term stagnation in pharmaceuticals and military industries potentially leading to a rotation towards technology, while mid-term focus remains on sectors with fundamental support such as overseas computing power, storage, consumer electronics, and wind energy storage [3]