Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The high base effect from national subsidies is expected to constrain short-term performance in the home appliance category, impacting revenue and profit growth for the company [1] - The company is projected to face revenue growth pressure in Q4 2025, with total revenue expected to increase by only 0.4% year-on-year to 348.4 billion yuan, compared to a 14.9% increase in Q3 2025 [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the efficiency of the company's takeaway business and the effectiveness of cross-selling new users to its e-commerce platform [1] - Anticipated policies to stimulate consumption in the home appliance sector in 2026 may provide support for the company's performance [1][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is adjusted to 1,305.2 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.9% from previous estimates [11] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 27.1 billion yuan, 23.1 billion yuan, and 41.9 billion yuan respectively, indicating significant declines due to the tapering effect of national subsidies [4][11] - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to decline to 2.1% in 2025, down from previous estimates [11] Valuation - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at 38.70 USD per ADS and 150.58 HKD per ordinary share, reflecting a decrease from previous values [14] - The valuation for the retail business is set at 23.77 USD per ADS, based on a non-GAAP PE of 8.0 times the 2026 forecast, which is below the comparable company average [14][15] Market Trends - The retail sector is experiencing a slowdown, with online retail sales growth decelerating to 5.7% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025, influenced by high base effects from previous national subsidy programs [2] - The company’s performance in the home appliance category saw a significant decline, with retail sales dropping by 19.4% year-on-year in November 2025 [2] Future Outlook - The central economic work conference highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing policies, which could support the company’s performance in the consumer goods sector [3] - The report suggests that the company’s performance may improve if the domestic demand policies are effectively implemented [3]

2025年，在外部压力加大、内部困难较多的复杂局面下，中国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，经济社会 发展主要目标将顺利完成，展现出强大韧性与活力。"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基 础、全面发力的关键时期，中央经济工作会议在部署明年经济工作时明确指出，要"在质的有效提升上 取得更大突破"，为"十五五"开好局、起好步提供了重要指引。 当今世界动荡变革加剧，新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速突破，外部环境变化影响加深，同时，国内供 强需弱矛盾仍然突出。要在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动，要解决好发展中、转型中的问题，就必须在 转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换增长动力方面下更大功夫，全力推动经济发展实现质的有效提升， 以高质量发展的确定性应对各种不确定性。我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支 撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富 人才资源优势更加彰显，完全有条件、有能力在质的提升上取得更大突破。 推动高质量发展，要加快高水平科技自立自强，积极发展新质生产力，在推动科技创新、加快培育新动 能、促进经济结构优化升级上取得实质性、突破性进展。产业是经济发展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic initiative, requiring both proactive macro policies and the establishment of long-term mechanisms to effectively guide consumption, savings, and investment [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - The need for more proactive macroeconomic policies is highlighted, aligning with the directives from the Central Economic Work Conference [1] - The article calls for reforms to eliminate institutional barriers that restrict the expansion of domestic demand, aiming to cultivate a complete domestic demand system [1] Group 2: Income Distribution System - The article stresses the importance of improving the income distribution system, noting that consumption is a function of income, which is the key factor influencing consumption [1] - It suggests a collaborative approach across initial, redistributive, and third distribution areas to form an olive-shaped distribution pattern dominated by the middle-income group [1] - Specific measures include addressing structural employment issues, optimizing labor market conditions, and enhancing wage determination mechanisms to increase labor compensation's share in initial distribution [1] Group 3: Market Mechanisms - The article advocates for a robust market mechanism that aligns with the construction of a strong domestic market, emphasizing the decisive role of the market in resource allocation [1] - It identifies existing institutional shortcomings such as local protectionism and market fragmentation that hinder consumption choices and distort investment signals [1] - Recommendations include formulating national regulations for a unified market, eliminating barriers in resource acquisition, and promoting smooth flow of goods and factors across broader regions [1] Group 4: Consumption Promotion - The article points out the prominent institutional barriers that currently restrict the expansion and upgrading of consumption [1] - It calls for the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector and the expansion of high-quality goods and services supply [1] - The need for reforms in consumption tax collection to better align local fiscal revenues with local consumption market prosperity is also emphasized [1] Group 5: Economic Potential - The article concludes that China's market has significant potential, resilience, and vitality, with long-term supportive conditions for economic growth remaining unchanged [1] - It asserts that implementing comprehensive policies to expand domestic demand will continuously unleash greater potential for consumption and investment, thereby stabilizing the economy and promoting high-quality development [1]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨建筑与工程 [Table_Title] 基建投资增速连续下滑，水利投资降幅扩大 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 统计局发布经济数据，11 月，狭义基建投资单月下滑 9.7%，降幅环比扩大 1.1pct，广义基建 投资单月下滑 8.3%，降幅环比扩大 0.2pct。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SAC：S0490525080003 SFC：BUT917 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 建筑与工程 cjzqdt11111 1、项目转化不及预期； 2、实物工作量推进不及预期。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-12-21 行业研究丨点评报告 [Table_Title2] 基建投资增速连续下滑，水利投资降幅扩大 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 统计局发布经济数据，11 月，狭义基建投资单月下滑 9.7%，降幅环比 ...

Core Viewpoint - Improving income distribution is crucial for breaking the current constraints on consumer demand and driving economic growth [1][9] Group 1: Economic Context - The current economic situation in China is characterized by a "strong supply and weak demand" dynamic, with insufficient domestic demand being a significant barrier to high-quality development [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is hovering around zero, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) has experienced negative growth for 27 consecutive quarters, leading to structural deflationary pressures [5] - The gap between actual economic growth (approximately 5%) and nominal growth indicates a persistent issue that requires targeted measures across various sectors [5][9] Group 2: Income Distribution Issues - Experts identify the slowdown in income growth and the need for optimization in income distribution as the core issues behind weak domestic demand [9][10] - The current Gini coefficient is approximately 0.465, indicating a need for improvement in income distribution fairness, with a target of reducing it to around 0.4 by 2030 [10] - The urban-rural income ratio stands between 2.3 and 2.4, which is still considered high compared to international standards, with a goal to reduce it below 2 during the 14th Five-Year Plan [10] Group 3: Recommendations for Income Growth - Implementing proactive employment and human capital investment policies is essential, including extending compulsory education and reallocating educational resources for lifelong training [13][14] - Strengthening redistributive measures through progressive taxation and increasing government spending on social welfare is crucial for improving income distribution [14] - Stabilizing and enhancing residents' property income is vital, with a focus on maintaining stability in the real estate and capital markets [15] Group 4: Consumer Demand Enhancement - Experts suggest moving beyond traditional short-term stimulus measures to enhance consumer demand, advocating for investment in service consumption and areas that promote human development [17][18] - Expanding consumption scenarios and optimizing the consumption environment are key, including promoting the silver economy and reducing unreasonable consumption restrictions [18] Group 5: Long-term Support for Domestic Demand - Expanding domestic demand requires effective investment coordination and deep institutional reforms [20] - Addressing local government investment capacity and promoting long-term sustainable fiscal development through tax reform and the reallocation of fiscal powers are necessary [20] - Fostering technological innovation and industrial upgrading is fundamental for increasing income and creating high-quality employment, ultimately supporting long-term consumption growth [20]

完善收入分配制度。消费是收入的函数，收入是影响消费的最关键因素。要从初次分配、再分配和 第三次分配领域协同发力，推动形成中等收入群体占主体的橄榄型分配格局。初次分配，要着力破解结 构性就业矛盾，协同推进劳动力市场发育和就业相关制度完善，优化人力资源配置，完善劳动者工资决 定、合理增长、支付保障机制，提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重。再分配，要通过税收、社会保障和 转移支付等制度形式，加大再分配政策的实施力度，为居民提供更多更好更均等更普惠的基本公共服 务。第三次分配，要引导、支持有意愿的企业和社会群体积极参与公益慈善事业，创造激励和规范公益 慈善事业发展的制度环境。 构建与建设强大国内市场相适应的体制机制。市场是连接供给和需求的纽带，必须充分发挥市场在 资源配置中的决定性作用，加快形成统一开放、竞争有序的高标准市场体系。当前，我国市场体系仍存 在地方保护、市场分割、要素流动不畅等制度性短板，限制了消费选择、扭曲了投资信号，是"有需 求、缺供给"或"有供给、缺需求"等结构性矛盾的重要成因。要制定全国统一大市场建设条例，紧紧围 绕"五统一、一开放"的要求，消除要素获取、资质认定、招标投标、政府采购等方面壁垒，破除地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential recovery of the A-share consumer sector and subjective long-only funds as macroeconomic policies shift towards supporting consumption, raising the question of whether 2026 will mark a transition from a downturn to an upturn for these investments [2]. Historical Review: Performance of Consumer Funds in "Good Years" - The consumer sector, primarily consisting of food and beverage, discretionary consumption, and service consumption, does not yield excess returns every year but shows concentrated returns under specific macroeconomic conditions [4]. - In favorable years (e.g., 2009-2010, 2016-2017, 2019-2020), consumer funds typically thrive when the economy transitions from a downturn to a recovery phase, with policies shifting from "stabilizing growth" to "expanding demand" and inflation rising from low levels [4][6]. Policy Logic: Why This Round of "Consumption" is Not Short-Term Stimulus - The article emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is a long-term strategy for China's modernization, indicating a shift from investment-driven growth to a balanced approach of consumption and investment [8]. - The central economic work conference has set three key directions for consumption: moving from "subsidizing consumption" to "restoring consumption capacity," focusing on service consumption, and avoiding deflation while aiming for a stable inflation target [8]. 2026 Consumer Sector and Fund Dynamics - Based on historical experience, policy environment, and inflation signals, the consumer sector is expected to enter a phase of "moderate recovery rather than full-scale attack" in 2026, with a focus on restoring income expectations and expanding service consumption [11]. - The November CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, signaling marginal improvement in demand and alleviating deflation risks, which supports profit margin recovery and valuation stability for consumer companies [11][14]. - The investment opportunities in consumer funds for 2026 are likely to focus on "structural selection and long-term allocation" rather than short-term thematic plays, with an emphasis on service consumption and leading companies with brand and channel advantages [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined eight key tasks for 2026, with a focus on "domestic demand as the main driver, building a strong domestic market" as the top priority [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The conference emphasizes enhancing consumption capacity, willingness, and optimizing the consumption environment through systematic deployment [1] - A significant decision was made to "promote a new round of large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods" at the fourth meeting of the Central Financial Committee in early 2024 [1] - The State Council issued an action plan to promote large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, providing comprehensive deployment for the "two new" policies [1] Group 2: Financial Support - Multiple ministries jointly issued measures to support large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, specifying the allocation of 300 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bond funds to support the full implementation of the "two new" policies [1] Group 3: Consumer Policy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" further suggests increasing the intensity of inclusive policies directly reaching consumers, providing institutional guarantees for boosting consumption [1] - The support for the "two new" policies is gradually increasing, with a widening coverage and continuous enhancement of leverage effects [1]

在汉阳区，熊征宇来到武汉枢纽直通线汉阳站建设现场，察看项目进展，听取规划建 设、工程推进等情况汇报；来到九州通医药集团股份有限公司，了解企业生产经营情况。他 表示，汉阳区要锚定高质量发展首要任务，铆足干劲大抓项目，加快推进汉阳站等功能片区 建设，带动城区功能品质提升，深化与周边区域联动发展。要强化科技创新赋能，加强科技 招商和产业招商，推动传统制造业转型升级，加快培育生命健康、低空经济、数字经济等新 兴支柱产业。要推进文旅深度融合，培育壮大文旅经营主体，整合特色文旅资源，擦亮知音 文化品牌，提高文旅产业竞争力。 12月19日至20日，市委副书记、代市长熊征宇赴长江新区、硚口区和汉阳区调研。他强 调，要深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会和习近平总书记考察湖北重要讲话精神，认真落实 省委、省政府和市委部署要求，坚定实施扩大内需战略，激发消费潜能，扩大有效投资，推 动城区内涵式发展、高质量发展。 来到长江新区，熊征宇走进中远海运港口码头公司、阳逻港二期码头，调研多式联运体 系建设情况；来到格林美武汉阳逻循环经济产业园和麓洲生态城项目现场，了解绿色低碳产 业发展情况。他指出，长江新区承载着打造全市高质量发展新增长极的重要 ...

发展的根本目的是增进民生福祉。经济发展在"质"上的有效提升，最终要体现为人民群众生活水平的切 实提高。这既是发展的价值取向，也为持续发展创造稳定社会条件和内需基础。要坚持民生为大，着力 解决好就业、社保、教育、医疗、养老、托幼等人民群众关心的现实利益问题，推动发展更有温度、更 有质感。 需要强调的是，在质的有效提升上取得更大突破，量的合理增长是重要基础。高质量发展是宏观经济稳 定性增强的发展，对于我们这么大的经济体而言，保持经济平稳运行至关重要。要坚持稳中求进工作总 基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，不断巩固拓展经济稳中 向好势头。 来源/经济日报（作者金观平） 当今世界动荡变革加剧，新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速突破，外部环境变化影响加深，同时，国内供 强需弱矛盾仍然突出。要在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动，要解决好发展中、转型中的问题，就必须在 转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换增长动力方面下更大功夫，全力推动经济发展实现质的有效提升， 以高质量发展的确定性应对各种不确定性。我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支 撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、 ...